Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:16PM Saturday March 28, 2020 3:27 PM CDT (20:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:47AMMoonset 11:35PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 923 Am Cdt Sat Mar 28 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 pm cdt this afternoon through Sunday evening...
Rest of today..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 7 ft in the afternoon. Patchy fog. Rain. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Tonight..E wind 15 to 25 kts veering se 10 to 20 kts after midnight. Gusts to 30 kts. Waves 6 to 10 ft. Areas of fog in the evening, then patchy fog after midnight. Rain and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday..S wind 10 to 15 kts veering W 10 to 20 kts late in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 7 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Light rain likely.
Sunday night..NW wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. A chance of light rain.
LMZ541 Expires:202003282215;;200099 FZUS53 KGRB 281423 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 923 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-282215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 281926 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 226 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Sunday Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

The main forecast concern to be on potential heavy rainfall tonight as a strong early Spring storm moves across the region.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis showed the strong area of low pressure situated over southwest IA with a warm front extended eastward across central IL into south-central IN. A cold front stretched southwest from the low pressure into the central Plains. A weak area of high pressure was located across Ontario. One band of rain showers moved through northeast WI earlier today with the next round of showers to move through late this afternoon.

The vertically-stacked system to move from southwest IA into central WI tonight with the warm front to reach into far southern WI before the cold front drives eastward over southern sections of the Great Lakes. Strong synoptic lift to spread across northeast WI tonight, aided by a coupled jet structure. Plenty of moisture to be present with PW values in the 0.75-1.00" range. As the closed upper low approaches, mid-level forcing ramps up as well. Putting this altogether, anticipate a large swath of rain to overspread the area this evening with locally heavy rainfall. Rain amounts this evening alone could reach one-third to three-quarters of an inch range. Thunderstorms are still possible this evening over central/east-central WI due to strong shear and weak elevated instability. Since we do not get into the warm sector, expect small hail to be the main threat. In addition to the rain, gusty east-northeast winds this evening could produce minor lakeshore flooding on the west side of the Bay of Green Bay, along with the eastern shores of Door County (due to high waves). Ice shoves are also possible on the western side of the Bay and western shores of Lake Winnebago. After a busy evening, models show a dry slot rotating into eastern WI which would allow for the rain to diminish a bit. Winds will also diminish overnight as the surface low moves into WI. Min temperatures to be in the middle to upper 30s north, upper 30s to lower 40s south.

As the system moves toward the northern tip of Lower MI on Sunday, wrap-around moisture in a cyclonic flow will bring additional light rain to northeast WI. As temperatures begin to cool late in the day, some wet snow may mix with the rain over parts of north- central WI. Winds will be on increase through the day as the pressure gradient tightens behind the departed surface low. Gusts could approach 30 mph, but the wind direction to be west- northwest, thus no lakeshore flooding expected. However, ice shoves cannot be ruled out over eastern sections of the Bay or eastern shores of Lake Winnebago. Do not anticipate much of a diurnal rise in temperatures with readings only reaching around 40 degrees north- central WI, middle to upper 40s east- central WI.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Saturday Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Fairly quiet weather expected through at least mid-week before the next chance of precipitation arrives toward the end of the work week.

Sunday night: A vertically stacked surface low and upper low, centered over northern Lower Michigan, will shift eastward into southwest Quebec by early Monday morning. As cold air advects into the area on the back side of the low, expect some of the lingering precipitation will transition to light snow. Some minor accumulation will be possible, mainly across north-central Wisconsin where some upslope and added lake moisture could add to the lingering precipitation. At this point, it continues to look like an inch or less for mainly Vilas and Oneida counties with little to no accumulation expected elsewhere. In fact, most other locations may end up remaining light rain or drizzle. Overnight lows are forecast to be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, warmest east-central and far northeast.

Monday through Tuesday night: As the low shifts farther east, drier air will begin filtering in from the west Monday morning. Some clouds will likely linger through late morning or early afternoon before high pressure builds in Monday afternoon through Tuesday night. Otherwise, this time period is expected to be fairly quiet. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 40s with overnight lows mainly in the 30s.

Rest of the extended: The high pressure ridge is expected to shift eastward through the day Wednesday, allowing more moist southerly flow to increase. This will be ahead of the next potential system arriving from the northern Plains. There are significant model differences in timing and placement with the next feature, which keeps confidence in any one model solution very low. At this point, will stick with a blend of the models for the end of the work week, bringing a better chance of unsettled weather back to northeast Wisconsin. Temperatures are expected to be near normal through this time period.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A strong area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Midwest into Wisconsin tonight and toward the northern tip of Lower MI on Sunday. Several rounds of rain showers are forecast over northeast WI through Sunday afternoon, along with a few thunderstorms over the southern half of the state late this afternoon/evening. Flying conditions will be poor as MVFR/IFR conditions give way to IFR/LIFR conditions this evening when the heaviest precipitation arrives. In addition to the rain and low clouds, east-northeast winds are expected to increase this evening ahead of the low pressure. Have added some LLWS to the TAF sites for the evening hours. Once the low passes Sunday morning, winds will become west- northwest and become gusty in the afternoon. While some improvement in visibility is anticipated on Sunday, cigs should remain low as wrap-around moisture leads to additional rain chances.

HYDROLOGY. Issued at 225 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

A widespread 0.75 to 1.5" of rainfall is expected this weekend. This amount of rainfall, coupled with saturated soils, will lead to additional rises on area rivers. Many rivers will remain above bankfull, with a few reaching minor flood stage.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Lakeshore Flood Advisory until 5 AM CDT Sunday for WIZ022-039- 073-074.

SHORT TERM . Kallas LONG TERM . Cooley AVIATION . Kallas HYDROLOGY . Kallas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi48 min NE 15 G 19 38°F 1010.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi58 min NNE 17 G 20 34°F 37°F1009.9 hPa32°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi48 min NE 9.9 G 14 38°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi32 minENE 1210.00 miOvercast37°F34°F89%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE4SE3E3CalmE5E6E4N4CalmN4NE4CalmNE6NE7CalmNE3NE11NE9E12NE11NE16
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1 day agoE9E9SE7CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6E6E4E8E4E6E7
2 days agoSW9SW6CalmSE3NE3CalmCalmCalmN4NE3NE7NE6N6N6N7N6N3N76NE6E5SE6E6SE10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.