Wednesday, December11, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:13PM Wednesday December 11, 2019 12:56 PM CST (18:56 UTC) Moonrise 4:58PMMoonset 7:30AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1203 Pm Cst Wed Dec 11 2019
This afternoon..W wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Sunny.
Tonight..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow after midnight.
Thursday..S wind 10 to 15 kts increasing to 15 to 25 kts mid-day, then veering sw 10 to 20 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 ft building to 6 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Snow. Light rain in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Thursday night..W wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 5 to 8 ft. A chance of drizzle and freezing drizzle in the evening. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ541 Expires:201912112315;;199489 FZUS53 KGRB 111803 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1203 PM CST Wed Dec 11 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-112315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 111740 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Thursday Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Bitter cold today and early tonight, then snowy conditions expected late tonight into Thursday.

The wind chill advisory appears to be working out just fine early this morning, with many observations showing wind chills in the 20 below to 30 below zero range. No changes to the wind chill headlines, which will continue through noon. Most of the forecast area had clear skies, through lake effect clouds off the bay and Lake Winnebago were affecting our far eastern and southern counties. Additional clouds associated with a weak low pressure system were also brushing our southern counties. Highs today will range from around zero in the cold spots of north central WI to around 10 above near Lake Michigan.

Temperatures are expected to quickly drop into the single digits below zero across north central and far northeast WI early this evening, due to mostly clear skies and light winds. However, clouds will quickly overspread the region later this evening and overnight, and WAA will result in rising temperatures overnight. The RRQ of an upper level jet and strong WAA/isentropic lift will cause light snow to develop over mainly northern WI after midnight, with 1 to 2 inches of powder possible in north central WI by daybreak.

On Thursday, snow will overspread the forecast area as a low pressure system and associated warm front arrive. The most significant accumulations are expected over northern WI. Mid- level moisture is expected to shallow out during the mid to late afternoon, leading to the possibility of light freezing rain or freezing drizzle.

In coordination with offices to our west, we have issued a winter weather advisory for snow along and north of a line from Wausau to Sturgeon Bay from 3 am to 6 pm Thursday. Most of this region should see 3 to 5 inches of snow, with local amounts near 6 inches far northeast. This is very similar to snowfall amounts from WPC, and close to the 50th percentile of all model forecasts. However, confidence is only medium at this time. One concern is a dry wedge in the low-levels, which lingers through early Thursday, and could delay the start of snow or waste some of the best forcing to achieve saturation. Another concern is that CIPS analogs only support advisory criteria snow over far northern WI.

LONG TERM. Thursday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 349 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

The main highlights from this forecast period are the chances for accumulating snow to start the weekend and below normal temperatures arriving after the potential snow.

By Thursday night, the winter storm will be winding down as the surface low pressure system shifts to the east. Locations along the eastern half of the forecast area could see some lingering flakes with little to no additional accumulations Thursday night. High pressure will then move into the forecast area from the northwest leaving dry conditions through Friday morning. At the same time, an upper-level shortwave trough will dig across the northern Plains. Model guidance indicates a weak clipper system riding along this trough could bring light snow accumulations to the area Friday and Saturday. However, models are not in agreement with the track of this system, timing, or the amount of moisture associated with it. Therefore, did not veer from model blend chance PoPs and low QPF amounts for Friday and Saturday for now.

By Saturday night, a surface high pressure system will be pushing into the northern Plains funneling colder Canadian air into the region. This could lead to steady temperatures on Saturday with the high temperatures occurring in the morning. The cold air will then continue bringing below normal temperatures through the remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of next week.

AVIATION. for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1140 AM CST Wed Dec 11 2019

Good flying weather expected through the evening hours. MVFR conditions and light snow will arrive late tonight across central and northcentral Wisconsin. IFR weather and snow is expected across the entire region Thursday. The heaviest snow and lowest flight conditions will be north of an AUW to SUE line.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST today for WIZ005-010>013- 018>021-030-031-035-036-073-074.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-073-074.

SHORT TERM . Kieckbusch LONG TERM . Hykin AVIATION . RDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 13 mi76 min SSW 8 G 14 5°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi56 min SW 15 G 18 3°F 36°F1027.5 hPa (+1.5)-7°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi43 min W 15 G 26 9°F 1024.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi60 minW 9 G 1510.00 miLight Snow5°F-8°F54%1029.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5W6W6
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2 days ago5CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE8NE5NE9NE10NE9NE10NE9NE9NE11NE10NE8N8NE8NE7N6N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.