Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 6:33PM Thursday October 1, 2020 10:34 AM CDT (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 6:52PMMoonset 6:17AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1018 Am Cdt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm cdt this evening...
This afternoon..N wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 to 4 ft. A slight chance of waterspouts. A chance of showers.
Tonight..N wind 15 to 25 kts decreasing to 10 to 15 kts in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy.
Friday..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy.
Friday night..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers.
LMZ541 Expires:202010012215;;647070 FZUS53 KGRB 011518 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1018 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-012215-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 011106 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Friday Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Showers will once again be possible today across the region with an upper level trough overhead as a cold front sinks south through the western Great Lakes. Thunder does not look to be much of a threat with very little in the way of instability this afternoon. The one exception may be the far southern cwa, however, chances are not high enough to put thunder in the forecast. Highs today are only expected to reach the middle to upper 40s across north- central Wisconsin, with middle 50s across east-central Wisconsin.

Drier air filtering in behind the cold front should end rain chances across much of the region tonight with much cooler temperatures expected across the area. The main exception will be north-central Wisconsin as northerly winds and delta T values in the upper teens cause lake effect rain and snow showers. Given the fairly warm ground, not much snowfall accumulation is anticipated across the north tonight. Farther south, frost will be a concern as overnight lows fall into the lower to middle 30s across central and east-central Wisconsin with clearing skies and light winds. Since these areas are still in the growing season, will issue a Frost Advisory for all these areas save for Door County, where winds off the bay of Green Bay should keep temperatures a bit warmer. Overnight lows tonight are expected to fall into the middle to upper 20s across the north, with lower to middle 30s across central and east-central Wisconsin, and lows around 40 over the Door Peninsula.

Lake effect rain showers will continue across the north on Friday with much cooler daytime highs anticipated for the entire area. Afternoon highs on Friday are only expected to be in the lower to middle 40s across the north, with highs around 50 across east- central Wisconsin.

LONG TERM. Friday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

500mb ridge across western North America will flatten some over the weekend into early next week. Despite the ridge flattening, there will be some downstream troughing across the central and eastern United States. Below normal temperatures will continue through the weekend with temperatures moderating closer to normal early next week.

For Friday night, made some changes to the dry forecast based on the latest model run tonight. Models are now indicating a weak surface trough dropping southeast into the western Great Lakes. Behind this feature, winds turn to the northeast. The combination of the surface trough and fairly steep lake/bay to 850mb temperature differences would support the chance of rain showers. Have added a chance of showers for far eastern Marinette/Oconto counties east to Door and Kewaunee Counties. The northeast flow will continue into Saturday morning, thus added a chance of showers for the morning hours. Daytime heating expected to produce some shower activity Saturday afternoon.

The system for Saturday night into Sunday remains to the south of the area, clipping our far eastern counties. The only exception is the GFS which indicated a more northern track and would bring rain further north and west compared to the other models. Dry conditions are expected Monday and Tuesday. The next cold front will bring a chance of showers Tuesday night. Temperatures return closer to normal by the middle of next week.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 606 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

A cold front will sag south through the area early this morning. bringing colder temperatures to the region. Lake effect rain showers will be ongoing across the north for much of the TAF period as winds turn northerly behind the cold front. Further south scattered showers are possible at times, but should dissipate later this evening. Conditions are expected to fall to MVFR behind the cold front, eventually improving to VFR later this afternoon and this evening as showers dissipate across the southern TAF sites. Further north, conditions are expected to mainly be MVFR with the continued lake effect showers, with IFR possible at times.

MARINE. Issued at 329 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2020

Cool 850 mb temperatures and fairly warm lake temperatures, around 15 to 16 degrees Celsius, will bring the chance for waterspouts at times to the nearshore waters today. 850 mb temperatures are expected to fall to -1 to -3 Celsius today, as convective cloud depths slowly fall in the afternoon. Due to the deep cloud depths, will keep waterspouts today with the threat dissipating by this evening as convective cloud depths become shallower.

Gusty northerly winds to 25 knots today will cause conditions hazardous to small craft through the evening hours. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the bay of Green Bay and the Lake Michigan nearshore waters until winds become lighter this evening.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM CDT Friday for WIZ020-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

SHORT TERM . Kurimski LONG TERM . Eckberg AVIATION . Kurimski MARINE . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 13 mi54 min WNW 14 G 20 50°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi46 min NNW 12 G 17 49°F 61°F1013.8 hPa43°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi54 min NNW 8.9 G 15 47°F 1012.9 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 39 mi34 min N 21 G 27 50°F 59°F1012.9 hPa (+2.6)46°F
45014 43 mi34 min NNW 12 G 18 50°F 1014.5 hPa (+2.9)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi38 minN 12 G 1810.00 mi49°F41°F74%1014.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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NW7NW4--CalmW3W43W33W4343CalmN4N5N9N12
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6SW8SW6SW6SW6SW5SW5W4SW5W3SW4SW3SW53NW3Calm3NW4NW5
2 days agoCalm4N6
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N8NW746N4Calm33NW3W43W4W4W4W6W5W4W4W8
G15
5W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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