Sunday, June13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sister Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:39PM Sunday June 13, 2021 9:59 AM CDT (14:59 UTC) Moonrise 7:31AMMoonset 11:34PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ541 Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 422 Am Cdt Sun Jun 13 2021
Today..NW wind 5 to 10 kts backing S at around 10 kts in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..S wind around 10 kts shifting ne at 10 to 20 kts during the evening, then backing nw at around 10 kts after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Scatterd Thunderstorms, mainly during the evening.
Monday..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly Sunny.
Monday night..N wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Mostly clear.
LMZ541 Expires:202106131630;;189932 FZUS53 KGRB 130922 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 422 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ541>543-131630-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sister Bay, WI
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location: 45.19, -87.12     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 130903 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 403 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Still very warm but not as humid today. A round of thunderstorms (especially N and E) late this afternoon and this evening. Then seasonable temperatures and humidities for the upcoming work week.

The large scale pattern across North America will amplify the next few days, with troughs just off the West Coast and over eastern Canada and New England, bracketing a ridge along the Rockies. Amplitude will peak Tuesday, with the primary westerlies flattening into a more zonal band of flow across the northern CONUS and southern Canada thereafter.

The tropical air mass with surface dewpoints in the 60s has been pushed southeast of the area. Plenty of sunshine and westerly flow will allow temperatures to warm to above normal again today, then readings fairly close to seasonal normals are expected for the remainder of the period. Some thunderstorms are likely to affect portions of the area this evening, but the loss of deep moisture will work against getting widespread significant rainfall. Only a few scattered/light precipitation events are expected after that, so rainfall totals for the period are likely to end up below to much below normal.

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Monday Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Now that winds near the lake have flipped to the NW, the last of the lingering humid air was exiting the area. Abundant sunshine this morning will also help mix out any lingering low-level moisture, and allow temperatures to warm into the 80s across the pretty much the entire area today.

The main short-term forecast concern relates to the impacts of a mid-level shortwave and strong upper level speed max digging SE from Manitoba. The upstream large scale ridge will be building, which will help drive the features toward the forecast area. Strong forcing for ascent will accompany the features through the area. Given the forcing, another round of thunderstorms is likely despite more modest moisture than the past several days. The limited moisture may hold back coverage some, so only took PoPs up to likely--with the highest PoPs in the northeast. Some of the CAMS brought surface dewpoints up into the low-mid 60s ahead of a cold front sagging south through the area. That seemed too high given the air mass coming in from the west and expected mixing. Dewpoints in the low-mid 50s seem more likely. That will probably still yield sufficient buoyancy for a few strong-severe storms given the 55-65kt deep layer shear.

Convection should exit the east around midnight or shortly thereafter. A strong shortwave dropping SSE from western Ontario will be crossing the area Monday afternoon. That may lead to another round of convection during peak heating--especially in the east. Given the current guidance, the most likely scenario is that there will be scattered coverage and a few storms will produce small hail. But given we were starting with a dry forecast, a good starting point seemed to be to add slight chance PoPs to about the eastern 2/3 of the area. A further increase can be made with later issuances if necessary.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Saturday Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

A relatively quiet weather pattern for the middle of June during this part of the forecast. Only one significant chance of widespread precip, which looks to occur Thursday afternoon into Friday morning when a cold front passes across the region. Temperatures for the upcoming week will be near or slightly above normal.

Monday night through Tuesday night . A shortwave trough will be exiting the region in the evening. Any convective clouds should dissipate fairly rapidly in the evening with loss of heating. Then high pressure will build towards the region over the rest of this time period. Some signs that an area of clouds will drift south off Lake Superior and across the area late on Monday night into Tuesday. If this cloud mass materializes, temps may be impacted somewhat (cooler than forecast on Tuesday), particularly since winds will be out of the NNE. Will stick with the blended forecast for now, which places highs in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

Rest of the forecast . The surface high will remain over the area on Wednesday before shifting to the east by Thursday. A period of return flow will then slide across the area ahead of the cold front on Thursday and Thursday night. Temperature/moisture advection does not look as robust as it did 24 hours ago. As a result, chances of widespread rainfall have diminished somewhat. Then a reinforcing cold front brings a cool and stable airmass into the region on Friday, which hangs around into next weekend.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Outside of isolated IFR fog in the far east this morning and the late afternoon/evening thunderstorms, good flying weather is expected. The initial plan is to carry some thunder in the eastern TAF sites and will make an issuance time decision on the western sites. Will try and pick out the 2-3 hour period with the best chance for thunder, though the actual window when thunder is possible will probably be about 4-6 hours at each site.

MARINE. Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun Jun 13 2021

Though differing on the details, the overall scenario on most of the hires guidance was that there will be a strong southwest surge of the cold front/outflow boundary over the bay this evening. Exact timing is still a little unclear, but the current best guess is around 23-00Z near Washington Island and 02-03Z near the mouth of the Fox River. Brief gusts of 25-30 knots are anticipated, with gusts possibly reaching 35 knots near GRB. Opted to issue a SC.Y for the bay with the morning issuance. It is still possible that a Special Marine Warning may be needed, especially if the higher end gusts are realized. The wind should settle down a couple ours after the FROPA.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . Skowronski LONG TERM . MPC AVIATION . Skowronski MARINE . Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 10 mi79 min WNW 8 G 12 65°F 1015.6 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 13 mi79 min SW 1.9 G 5.1 72°F
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 26 mi59 min NW 7 G 11 70°F 73°F1014.2 hPa (+0.8)56°F
FPTM4 - Fairport, MI 38 mi79 min NW 6 G 8.9 68°F
45014 43 mi59 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 70°F 71°F1 ft1015.3 hPa (+1.0)

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI27 mi63 minN 710.00 miFair72°F55°F55%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMNM

Wind History from MNM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW44NW7444SE8E8E5E5E6NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmW333CalmCalmNW3NW7N7
1 day agoE7E12E12E12E11E12E11
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E11E12E8NE6NE3E9NE9N4CalmCalmN6NE4NE4NE5E4NE3N3
2 days agoE7SE7SE7E10E11E8SE8SE6S7CalmS6S7SW7S7S6CalmNE5NE3NE5NE5CalmCalm3N5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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