Tuesday, October27, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:11AMSunset 6:31PM Tuesday October 27, 2020 11:27 AM EDT (15:27 UTC) Moonrise 4:29PMMoonset 2:58AM Illumination 83% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1100 Am Edt Tue Oct 27 2020
.gale warning in effect from this evening through Wednesday morning...
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Numerous showers in the late morning, then isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less building to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 7 to 10 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
Wednesday night..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202010272300;;920828 FZUS53 KAPX 271500 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-272300-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 271439 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1039 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1039 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Morning composite analysis reveals elongated surface high pressure across the Great Lakes and back into the central Plains but with some subtle lake induced troughiness along the NW Lower Lake Michigan shoreline. Aloft, low amplitude short-wave trough axis is pressing into the western Great Lakes this morning with 140+ knot upper jet axis stretching from Missouri northeastward through southern Lower Michigan. Associated upper jet forcing is producing a corridor of higher level radar returns through central Lower Michigan and into northern Lower. Mostly virga, particularly this far north, but a few locations have reported some light precip. Meanwhile, spotty lake convection lingers on northern lakes Michigan and Huron, drifting into parts of NW Lower Michigan on a presently light low level flow.

Background upper jet induced radar returns continue across Lower Michigan into the afternoon before diminishing . with little fanfare. Meanwhile, as discussed by overnight forecaster below, surface high pressure gets shunted into the lower lakes region through today while lowering surface pressures develop across the northern lakes . resulting in an increasing southwesterly flow across the region. This will eventually draw lingering lake convection back through the region as we go through the afternoon, possibly bolstered some by daytime heating and a touch of low level instability. So, some spotty showers anticipated, snow or mixed snow->rain as temperatures warm to the high 30s to lower 40s.

Southwesterly winds gradually increase this afternoon and particularly tonight as low level flow increases to 30 to 40 knots off the surface and underneath an increasing/lowering inversion. Gale warnings currently in place look fine and we may have a need for some lakeshore flood headlines. Will coordinate that with surrounding offices.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

. Still some lake effect today, becoming breezy tonight .

High impact weather potential: lakeshore flooding possible along Lake Mich coastline overnight into Wed morning.

High pressure is centered over the NE/IA border area, with ridging extending into the northern Great Lakes. This high will gradually get shunted southward into the northern OH Valley by late tonight. Meanwhile, various shortwaves will be digging into s central Canada, lowering pressures in the southern prairie provinces and into northern Ontario. Lake effect precip will linger into today, but we start to shunt the colder air out of the region tonight as sw winds increase.

Presently, mixed lake effect rain/snow showers hug the coastlines of Lakes Mich/Huron/Superior. Our 1000-850mb winds are weakening in the pre-dawn hours, as the surface high shifts southward over the region (and as a separate, weaker blue H forms just east of the Great Lakes). Light winds and land breezes will contribute to mesolow development, something we have seen with some frequency since yesterday. After 12Z, we finally see a real synoptic fetch established, with wsw 1000-850mb winds increasing to 10kt by 15Z, and 15-20kt by 18Z. This will fairly quickly carry ongoing Lakes Huron/Superior activity out of our area. However, residual lake effect rain/snow showers will gradually get pushed into the Lake MI coastal counties of nw lower MI, as well as central Mackinac Co. This will be most prevalent from 10am to 2pm. After that, expect maybe some sct showers to linger thru the afternoon in the Straits area, where the wsw fetch is longest. Hard to see more than isolated showers further south from mid-afternoon on.

Far western Chip/Mack Cos should be the first to break into partial sunshine, by midday or very early afternoon. That will be slow to push eastward, but nw lower MI at least will see clouds decrease by late afternoon.

Tonight, the pressure gradient continues to tighten between the high to our south, and lowering pressure to our north. Sw to wsw winds continue to strengthen somewhat. 850mb temps will recover to 0C or better in southern and western sections by morning. That shallows out lake effect instability, and with drier air in place at low levels, expect places near and south M-72 to be partly cloudy to mostly clear all night. The north, though, will see a mid cloud deck make inroads during the night, as a shortwave goes glancing by Superior and adjoining parts of Ontario. Precip chances look pretty meager, but there is perhaps a slight chance of rain/snow north of M- 28 in Chippewa Co overnight.

It will get increasingly windy tonight, especially over and just downwind of Lake MI. Wind headlines should not be needed over land, but wind/wave action will open the door to some lakeshore flooding potential overnight along the Lake MI coastline in both peninsulas. Will add this to the Haz Wx Outlook, but leave later shifts to issue advisories (or worse) as needed.

Max temps today upper 30s to mid 40s, pretty much just like the last few days. Min temps will briefly dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s early tonight, but rise overnight.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong zonal jet will continue to spread across the Great Lakes Wednesday as a cut-off upper-level low shifts into the southern Great Plains. This low will get reabsorbed back into the main flow and quickly traverse the SE CONUS Thursday. At the surface, a cyclone should trek across Hudson Bay into Quebec Wednesday while what is currently Hurricane Zeta is expected to to make landfall along the Gulf coast Wednesday evening per the latest NHC forecast. The aforementioned cut-off low will provide strong support aloft for the remnants of Zeta, which will progress into the Mid-Atlantic late Thursday as high pressure builds into the center of the country.

Forecast/Details:

A weak front associated with the cyclone over Hudson Bay looks to swing down through the area Wednesday morning which, in tandem with the strong jet streak aloft, should provide sufficient forcing for some rain/snow showers across eastern Upper and Tip of the Mitt Wednesday. Forecast soundings show favorable low-level moisture in place across this area that decreases with southward extent. Enough near-surface could remain after the frontal passage to support some additional lake effect showers, mainly across eastern upper, with NW winds behind the front Wednesday night. Somewhat enhanced northerly winds are expected Thursday with a tightening pressure gradient due to Zeta passing to our south. More light rain/snow showers are possible Thursday, mainly along and west of US-31/M-37 due to these northerly winds and some shallow moisture near the surface. Otherwise, some warmer temperatures arrive on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. A chilly day is expected on Thursday due to the frontal passage as highs only get near 40 in the afternoon, feeling even cooler with north winds.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring strong wind/snow potential late this upcoming weekend.

A formerly cut-off low should fully merge with the primary upper- level flow and depart into the Atlantic Friday as ridging looks to move over the Great Lakes Saturday. Guidance consistently brings an impressive trough through the region late this weekend with an associated strong cyclone across Hudson/James Bay. Confidence is beginning to increase that strong NW flow behind an attendant cold front could bring our first shot for accumulating lake effect snow to the area. While forecast temps look to waver near the freezing mark, sufficient moisture appears to be in place to support lake effect precip chances of some kind. As alluded to above, strong wind gusts are also becoming a concern late this weekend as this system approaches. Plenty of time still exists between now and then, however, and details will become more clear as the weekend nears. On a brighter note, it is looking like northern Michigan will have a pleasant Halloween weather-wise. With ridging moving in, no precip is in the forecast until late Saturday night, which is somewhat rare. Most of our major observation sites have had precip 9 of the past 10 Halloweens. If northern Michigan is particularly lucky, we could even get a good glimpse of the full moon Halloween night before cloud cover creeps in ahead of the system.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 640 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Mainly a mix of VFR and MVFR today.

Sw winds will increase today and tonight, as high pressure sinks toward the OH Valley. This will bring one final round of sct lake effect rain/snow showers into nw lower MI late this morning and early this afternoon. Airmass will dry and warm (somewhat) after that, ending lake effect. Will be periods of MVFR cigs today (current IFR cig at mbL should be quite temporary). Cigs improve to VFR by tonight.

Sw breezes develop today, and become gustier tonight. For now we have enough mechanical mixing progged to keep us just barely short of LLWS; would not be surprised if LLWS needs to be added in later TAFs.

MARINE. Issued at 343 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Sw to wsw winds ramp up today and especially tonight, as broad high pressure settles to our south. Anticipate the ongoing gale warning being expanded south to Manistee, and small craft advisories being issued for all of our other waters.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LHZ346>349. GALE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LHZ345. LM . GALE WARNING from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi48 min NNW 11 G 14 42°F 1024.4 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi58 min SSW 7 G 8.9 36°F 48°F1022.4 hPa33°F
45175 44 mi29 min ENE 1.9 G 3.9 36°F 49°F1024 hPa30°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
N8
NW6
G10
N7
G10
N5
NW6
NW3
G9
N6
G9
W4
NW2
NW7
G10
NE11
G14
N11
G16
N9
G12
NW6
G9
NW4
G8
NE8
G11
NE7
G11
N6
NE6
G9
N6
NE3
NE3
SW5
SW7
1 day
ago
SW3
SW5
SW3
SW1
NW1
N2
NW1
SW3
SW3
NW2
W1
NW3
N4
NW2
SW2
SW2
N3
N9
N5
NW3
NW6
N5
G8
N10
N8
G11
2 days
ago
NE2
E3
--
NE3
G7
N5
NE5
--
SW4
SW3
SW4
W5
NW7
G11
NW7
G11
NW5
G9
NW4
NW4
NW2
SW2
SW2
SW3
W1
W2
SW3
SW2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi33 minSW 410.00 miOvercast38°F35°F91%1023 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi33 minN 010.00 miOvercast34°F32°F93%1023.7 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi33 minS 410.00 miOvercast36°F32°F89%1024 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi35 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast33°F30°F89%1024.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last 24hrNE5N7
G17
N9
G14
NW7NW7W9W14
G18
W6NW5NW8
G15
NW9NW8N7
G15
N8E5NE8CalmSE3S4S3SE3CalmS6NW9
1 day agoS4CalmCalmW4NW3W4SW7CalmW3S3CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmS3CalmSE3CalmCalmNE5NE7NE3
2 days agoSE5E5S5CalmSW20
G24
CalmSE4CalmS3W6NW9
G14
NW8NW5NW5CalmNW3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmS5S4S5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map


Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.