Tuesday, August20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Boyne City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 8:40PM Tuesday August 20, 2019 11:13 PM EDT (03:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:14PMMoonset 10:36AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 1049 Pm Edt Tue Aug 20 2019
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west early in the morning. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..North wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:201908211100;;962150 FZUS53 KAPX 210249 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1049 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-211100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Boyne City, MI
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location: 45.21, -85.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 210222
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1022 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019

Update
Issued at 1022 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
evening composite analysis reveals baggy surface low pressure
across the western great lakes into the central plains. Surface
cold front is just upstream... North of lake superior and wrapping
down through western wisconsin. A pronounced moisture gradient
is evident across northern-central michigan back into central
wisconsin with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 south
of m-72 and middle 50s to the north (dewpoints briefly dipped into
the 40s in the tip of the mitt this afternoon). So despite cooling
temperatures, SPC mesoanalysis still shows 500-1500 j kg mlcape
across our S SE counties as of this hour.

Further south, convectively induced short-wave and attendant area
of showers storms continue to roll through southern SE michigan
this evening, the northern end of an ongoing linear MCS that has
traversed through the midwest into the ohio valley over the last
12 to 18 hours. Not much happening this far north other than
thicker mid and high cloud cover skirting through the E SE parts
of the forecast area associated with the downstate activity, as
well as some fog already popping up behind the clearing line.

Rest of tonight: first off, given the lingering instability
across our S SE counties, I cannot completely rule out the
possibility of a stray shower popping in those areas through the
rest of tonight. But given the lack of any forcing mechanisms,
will not put any explicit precip in the forecast... Just have
"silent" pops so to speak.

Meanwhile, upstream cold front and leading edge of significantly
cooler air will slide down through the u.P. Overnight and down
through northern lower michigan on Wednesday. Will see another
chance for a few showers or perhaps just some drizzle across
eastern upper michigan along the front (forecast soundings exhibit
more of a drizzle look than anything with a saturated layer from
the surface to 700 mb).

Finally, patchy to areas of fog is a good bet especially for areas
south of m-72 where that higher dewpoint air resides. I've added
that to the forecast as well.

On Wednesday, surface front will cross down through northern lower
michigan... The beginning of a fairly substantial cool-down for the
latter half of the week. Will probably see a round of showers
along ahead of the front particularly across the SE part of the
forecast area. Made some tweaks to the forecast there as well.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
high impact weather potential... Minimal
pattern synopsis forecast... Morning MCS mcvs have been moving
outside of the forecast area, and are beginning to diminish over
the region. One is along the mississippi river, near lacrosse, wi
and is quickly falling apart. The other is leaving the chicago
area and heading across "michiana." the debris clouds from both of
these system has set up high clouds over most of the state, and
looks to have put a stop to the mixing, so far, that would drop
our dewpoints this afternoon. The dewpoint lack of dewpoint drop
this afternoon, may have implications tonight. A warm front is
cutting across S lower, with rain showers breaking out along the
front, from saginaw bay to about benton harbor. Believe that the
front should have gotten north of m-55, except for the cloud
debris keeping the temperatures artificially down through the day.

As the MCS in the chicago area moves into michigan, it will
continue to suppress the warm front from moving north much. The
cloud debris looks to suppress the temperatures, so that we don't
mix into the really dry air.

Primary forecast concerns... This brings us to our forecast
concerns. The main concern is the possibility for moisture trapped
near the sfc with the decaying MCS to the west and moving into the
region as light showers spotty drizzle. The forecast concern this
morning was what would the dry air do to the possible drizzle. Now
with the somewhat higher dewpoints this afternoon, it seems like
that we added to the spotty drizzle so that it becomes patchy to
areas of drizzle, especially south of m-72 and west of us-131. It
could reach further east, but once we get past 12z wed, then the
temperature should be warming and the drizzle and low cloud should
begin to lift. With that, there is a possibility that fog is an
issue. Have left the fog out for now, but the chances seem like
they could start rising with the dewpoints starting higher than
they were.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
high impact weather: minimal
a positive-tilt trough will dig into the great lakes Wednesday as a
speed MAX rounds its axis before progressing east into new england
towards the end of the week. At the surface, a cyclone is expected
to develop and deepen in SE ontario underneath favorable
divergence lift provided in the exit region of the trough and will
move into quebec by the end of the forecast period. Surface high
pressure will build across south-central canada northern great
plains in a region of subsidence aloft behind the passing trough.

This ridging makes its way into the great lakes by Friday.

Somewhat amplified flow provided between the aforementioned surface
features should funnel cooler, dryer air into the forecast area for
the end of the workweek. With this, below average temperatures are
expected both Thursday and Friday with continued caa. On Thursday,
high temperatures may only reach into the mid to upper-60s for many
across northern michigan while it warms up a few degrees on Friday,
getting into the lower-70s. This is well below the average highs in
the upper 70s for this time of year. Low temps those nights are
expected to reach down into the low to mid-40s, perhaps the upper
30s for some with clear skies allowing for strong radiational
cooling and a lack near-surface mixing due to weak surface winds
overnight Thursday and Friday. Winds are expected to be strongest
Wednesday with gusts of 15-20mph with stronger gusts likely over
lake huron. Additionally, the combination of relatively cool air
coupled with continued caa, lack of moisture, and subsidence aloft
should hinder precip chances over the forecast period.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
impactful weather: next main precip chances early next week
an amplified ridge is expected to be centered over the great lakes e
canada to begin the period with surface high pressure across the
region underneath. This ridge moves east over the weekend as a
shortwave trough is expected to progress into the region in the late
Sunday early Monday timeframe. The evolution timing of this feature
appears to be the main focus of the extended period. Latest model
guidance hints at a cyclone developing deepening in south-central
canada underneath divergence provided by the shortwave aloft,
along with WAA from enhanced southerly flow. While large
uncertainty still exists at this range, the next main precip
chances for the forecast area appear to be accompanied with this
system, especially with a cold front associated with the cyclone
moving through. Confidence in specific rain storm chances will
increase with time. Otherwise, temperatures are expected to warm
back up into the upper-70s and low- 80s over the weekend and into
early next week as low-level flow becomes more southerly, aiding
warm air and moisture return.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 839 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
baggy low pressure is across the western great lakes this evening
with an upstream cold front north of lake superior down into
northwest wisconsin. Showers and some storms continue to slide
through southern SE lower michigan this evening with thicker mid
and high cloud cover skirting up through northern lower michigan.

But otherwise,VFR weather will largely be the rule for much of
tonight. That said, could be some patchy to areas of fog
developing later on that may produce some MVFR conditions.

Cold front will swing through the region early Wednesday morning
bringing lower (MVFR and possible ifr) cigs. Front may trigger
some showers later in the morning and afternoon primarily across
ne lower michigan. But cooler and drier air spreads into the
region behind the front on gustier NW winds... Returning the
terminal sites toVFR during the afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 252 pm edt Tue aug 20 2019
tonight through Thursday... Overnight, the winds will slowly
increase, once the cold front moves through. However, after the
cold front moves through the winds will increase on the great
lakes, especially north of beaver island on lake michigan,
northern lake huron, and whitefish bay, where small craft
advisories are likely. The small craft will continue into
Wednesday night, before high pressure builds into the region, and
slackening the pressure gradient, diminishing the winds.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Ba
near term... Jl
short term... Mr
long term... Mr
aviation... Ba
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 14 mi44 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 69°F 70°F1 ft1014.1 hPa64°F
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 28 mi50 min SSW 2.9 G 4.1 64°F 1013.5 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 42 mi62 min S 4.1 G 4.1 66°F 69°F1013.5 hPa
45175 44 mi45 min SSW 3.9 G 3.9 69°F 69°F1 ft1013 hPa62°F
WSLM4 44 mi74 min SSW 8 70°F 67°F1013.1 hPa (-0.3)60°F
45183 46 mi44 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 71°F 70°F1014.4 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI15 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair65°F59°F85%1014.2 hPa
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI16 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair66°F57°F74%1013.2 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI18 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair64°F61°F92%1013.5 hPa
Gaylord Regional Airport, MI22 mi21 minN 010.00 miFair66°F57°F75%1013.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4----S6CalmCalmE3CalmSE4E4SE3CalmS4SW7SW8W8NW8CalmE3NW7W7SW3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW8
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--W5----W7W9W7W5W6W8W6W6W7NW7W9W9W9W6W6W3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmSE3SE3SE5SE4SE5SE3SE3SE5SE4SE6SE7
G15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.