Rib Lake, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rib Lake, WI

April 15, 2024 8:34 PM CDT (01:34 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:45 PM
Moonrise 10:15 AM   Moonset 1:59 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rib Lake, WI
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Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 152358 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 658 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire weather conditions will persist into Tuesday, mainly across northern Wisconsin, due to low relative humidity and increasing easterly winds.

- Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected from late Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, but strong winds aloft could mix to the surface with any storms or heavier showers. Heavy rainfall will be likely regionwide.

- Strong east to southeast winds are expected Tuesday into Tuesday night, with gusts of 30 to 45 mph. The strongest gusts are anticipated across central Wisconsin. A Gale Watch is in effect for Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 222 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Main forecast concerns will be on elevated fire weather conditions mainly over northern WI, increasing east winds and timing of rain on Tuesday.

The 19Z MSAS surface analysis indicated a ridge of high pressure that stretched from the Manitoba/Ontario border south through the western Great Lakes. An area of low pressure is situated over the central High Plains with a warm front extended east into the mid- MS Valley. Visible satellite imagery picked on a batch of mid- clouds over the Upper MS Valley.

The high pressure will shift into northwest Ontario to the eastern Great Lakes tonight. Meanwhile, the low pressure will continue to strengthen over the central Plains. A push of WAA will lift 8H temperatures into the +5 to +10C range by daybreak, however the dry air mass still over the region would preclude any need for pops. We should see middle and high clouds pass overhead at times with min temperatures in the lower to middle 30s north, upper 30s to lower 40s south.

This central Plains system is forecast to become vertically- stacked on Tuesday and slowly move toward the Midwest in the afternoon. The gulf will be wide open and with a south-southwest low-level jet at 40 to 50 knots, it will not take long for this gulf moisture to surge north toward WI. By late afternoon, PW values nearly double to around 1 inch over central and east- central WI. This moisture, coupled with the northward moving warm front into northern IL by 00Z Wednesday and additional lift provided by the left exit region of the upper jet, will bring a chance of showers into at least central WI late Tuesday afternoon.
Instability is still rather weak, thus nothing more than a few rumbles of thunder expected. The other story for Tuesday will be the strong winds that develop in the morning between the incoming low pressure and departed high pressure. Gusts by the afternoon could reach 30-40 mph with a few locations pushing 45 mph, especially over central WI. Max temperatures to range from the middle 50s near Lake MI, upper 50s to lower 60s inland.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

The main forecast concerns during the extended forecast will be widespread shower activity, heavy rainfall, isolated to scattered thunderstorms, and strong east to southeast winds with a low pressure system Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Vertically stacked/deep low pressure will move from the Central Plains to southeast MN Tuesday night. A developing 50-60 kt low- level jet ahead of this system will bring a surge of moisture (PWATs of 1-1.3 inches) into the forecast area Tuesday night, and generate strong isentropic ascent over a tight baroclinic zone.
Widespread shower activity will overspread the CWA Tuesday evening, then lift out of far NE WI during the overnight period.
Showers will continue through Wednesday as the occluding surface low and strong upper level trough move through WI. Pockets of heavy rainfall appear likely, with rainfall totals reaching 1 to 2 inches across much of the forecast area. Marginal elevated instability will move into mainly the south and east parts of the forecast area Tuesday night, and weak SBCAPE around 200 j/kg may develop along the occluded front in C/EC WI Wednesday afternoon.
Though widespread severe weather is not expected, cannot rule out some strong gusts mixing down with any storms or heavier showers on Tuesday night, when winds of 45-60 knots in the 925-850 mb layer will be present. Strong east to southeast winds will continue to strengthen Tuesday evening, with gusts to 30 to 45 mph (strongest in central WI and the Fox Valley), and potential for Gale Force gusts on Lake Michigan. A Wind Advisory may be needed for parts of central WI and the Fox Valley, and a Gale Watch will be issued for Lake Michigan for Tuesday night.

The remnants of this low lift north into Ontario and eventually phase with additional energy in central Canada to produce a weak, slow moving low that tracks well to our north late in the work week. Suspect most of the precipitation with this system will remain to our north Thursday into Friday, and the arrival of a large Canadian high pressure should bring additional dry weather from Saturday through Monday.

Temperatures will start off above normal midweek, then trend closer to normal late in the week.

AVIATION
for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 658 PM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

VFR conditions will prevail tonight into Tuesday morning with only some mid and high clouds across the region. A brief sprinkle is possible is possible at AUW/CWA/RHI from this mid cloud deck.
Flying conditions will deteriorate from southwest to northeast Tuesday afternoon and evening as a strong low pressure system works towards the state. Look for low clouds and a large area of rain to spread into the area. Some thunderstorms will also be possible, especially across central and eastern WI. MVFR look to arrive after 7-8pm Tuesday with IFR conditions holding off until closer to midnight.

Winds will shift to the east this evening and remain generally under 10 kts. Surface winds will increase Tuesday morning, becoming gusty by mid-morning. Gusts will increase through the day, peaking in the afternoon/evening in the 30-40 kt range.
Locally higher gusts are possible.

LLWS looks very marginal tonight, but will continue at RHI, AUW and CWA late tonight as southeast winds off the deck reach 30-35 kts. LLWS looks likely Tuesday evening as winds aloft increase significantly, reaching 50-60 kts at 2000 ft.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KMDZ TAYLOR COUNTY,WI 15 sm19 minENE 0510 smClear52°F23°F32%30.03
KRRL MERRILL MUNI,WI 19 sm19 minNE 0310 smClear55°F25°F30%30.05
KTKV TOMAHAWK RGNL,WI 23 sm19 mincalm10 smClear52°F25°F35%30.07
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Green Bay, WI,



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