NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KGRB 280907 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 307 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight
and Wednesday Issued at 305 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- Lake-effect snow showers ending this morning across north- central Wisconsin, highest snowfall amounts in Vilas County.

- Well below normal temperatures today, with cold wind chills in single digits below zero this morning.

- A warm front will bring light snow tonight; warmer temperatures to the area on Wednesday.

Forecast Details:

North-northwesterly winds will continue to turn westerly across north-central Wisconsin this morning, which will end the lake effect snow from Lake Superior across far north-central Wisconsin.
Total snowfall accumulations are expected to range from 1 to 3 inches across the southern half of Vilas County, with 3 to near 5 inches in the far northwest portion of the county. Cold morning temperatures and gusty northwesterly winds will cause wind chills in the single digits below zero this morning, which will impact anyone outside early this morning.

Otherwise, mostly sunny skies are generally expected today, before high clouds increase this afternoon ahead of a warm front approaching the area from the west. Highs today are expected to remain cold, only reaching the lower to middle 20s.

The aforementioned warm front will track through the area overnight, with low temperatures occurring this evening and slowly rising temperatures tonight as temperatures rise behind the warm front. Lows tonight are expected to fall into the middle teens across the north, with upper teens across central and east-central Wisconsin this evening before rising overnight. Isentropic lift associated with the warm front will bring light snow showers or flurries to the region as it passes through, with the best chances and highest amounts across the north where better moisture and lift will reside. Snowfall amounts tonight could reach up to an inch across the north, with a few tenths of an inch possible further south and little to no snow accumulation expected south of highway 10.

Warm air advection will continue on Wednesday behind the warm front, as skies become mostly sunny across the region. Highs on Wednesday will be much warmer, with highs in the middle to upper 30s.

LONG TERM
Wednesday Night Through Monday Issued at 305 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

Key Messages:

- High temperatures a few degrees above normal through the weekend and into next week.

- System arriving Saturday could bring a mix of rain and snow Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

- Secondary system developing Monday could bring some additional rain/snow.

Wednesday night through Saturday morning...Upper level zonal flow and building surface high pressure should keep the back-half of this week pretty quiet. High temperatures are expected to trend a few degrees above normal each day, while over night lows will be near seasonal.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday... Current model guidance has the next chance for precipitation arriving sometime between Saturday afternoon and early Sunday morning. While there is uncertainty with the timing both the GFS and ECMWF have a broad area of warm air advection spreading over the area Saturday, ahead of an upper-level shortwave. With temperatures in the Fox Valley and along the lakeshore forecast to be right around freezing those areas could see a rain/snow mix turning to snow overnight into Sunday morning, while areas in north-central and northeast WI see primarily snow. PWAT values look limited to about 0.50" with this system which would limit the highest snow accumulations to 1-2" in north-central and northeast WI.

Monday through the rest of the extended...The latest model guidance has a surface low pressure system developing over northern IL/southern WI with an associated upper-level shortwave Monday. This could result in another round of light to moderate rain/snow for the CWA Monday afternoon and evening. Precipitation amounts near the lakeshore may be aided by some lake enhancement as low and mid level winds turn easterly on the northern side of the developing low.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1040 PM CST Mon Nov 27 2023

Area of low-end VFR clouds will continue to push south into southern WI late this evening, with MVFR clouds spreading back into northern and central WI as northwest flow continues over Lake Superior. The lake effect clouds continue through the night over the north, but scatter out as you head south. A few lower clouds could linger into Tuesday as mid and high clouds spread across the area.

Lake effect snow showers will continue across north central WI overnight, mainly impacting RHI and points north. Mainly MVFR VSBYs are expected, with brief IFR conditions possible in the heavier snow showers. The lake effect snow will come to an end Tuesday morning as flow turns to the west. A fast moving clipper system will brush northeast WI Tuesday evening, bringing some snow showers and flurries to mainly far northeast WI. A few, brief heavier snow showers will be possible, mainly near the MI border.

West to northwest could gust to 20 kts to rest of the night, but reduced mixing and a strengthening inversion will help limit the gust potential. Winds will back to the southwest on Tuesday, with a few gusts to 15-20 kts in the late morning and afternoon. LLWS is expected Tuesday evening/night as winds at 2000 ft increase to 40-45 kts.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Green Bay, WI,