Friday, September18, 2020
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L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Norwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 7:43PM Friday September 18, 2020 1:00 PM EDT (17:00 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 7:51PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1016 Am Edt Fri Sep 18 2020
Today..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202009182230;;002802 FZUS53 KAPX 181416 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1016 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-182230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwood, MI
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location: 45.23, -85.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 181404 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1004 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1005 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

High pressure centered near DLH providing cool but mainly quiet wx. We have plenty of lake-induced instability, with delta T's in the mid to upper teens. But the airmass is too dry to support more than some cloud cover. Some high-based stratocu is in the Gd Trav Bay area, and another patch is decaying near the Straits. (Cloud bases are at 5-6k ft, about double what we usually see with lake- effect clouds.) Meanwhile, some shallow diurnal cu is firing near Lake Huron.

The stratocu over nw lower MI will be the most persistent, though that isn't saying much. The entire area should be mostly sunny by 1-2 pm.

After another day of strong mixing, and with lighter winds, min temps tonight should crater a little deeper than last night. After coord with MQT/GRR/DTX, have already posted freeze warnings for most of northern MI. A few of our most maritime zones are getting only frost advisories.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Impactful weather: Freezing temperatures tonight.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing in the NE conus and ridging in the Lee of the Rockies, puts nrn Michigan in NW flow aloft early this morning. Sfc high pressure was over the Arrowhead of MN and tracking our way. The air mass was dry and cool with mostly clear skies. Temperatures ranged from the middle 30s to middle 40s. A very quiet and chilly night.

Not a whole lot to talk about, except for how cold tonight will get. The sfc high pressure pushes east and slides right over the top of us tonight. Despite the cold air and good overlake instability (H8 temps of +1C to -2C leading to 16C to 18C delta t's), fcst soundings only suggest a touch of cumulus/lake clouds this afternoon, which will fade this evening, leaving just some increase in high level clouds tonight.

Highs today will be in the mid to upper 50s. Lows tonight will be much colder, after a great day of mixing into the air mass. Readings away from the Great Lakes coastal areas will range through the 20s. Gonna need a freeze warning for tonight.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

High impact weather potential: Frost potential Saturday nights.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Broad upper-level troughing is expected to be entrenched across the Great Lakes region at the start of the period Saturday morning with an embedded weak shortwave rippling through the larger scale flow. However, longwave troughing presses eastward as upstream ridging/rising heights gradually arrive Saturday night into Sunday . eventually leading to moderating temperatures. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits atop the region through Saturday evening as well, before gradually pressing eastward through the day Sunday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Low temperatures Saturday night.

Another day of below normal temperatures anticipated Saturday through Saturday night as high pressure remains overhead despite mid- level temps ever so slowly moderating as the core of coldest air retreats to our northeast. High temperatures ranging from the mid 50s to near 60 degrees area wide before falling once again Saturday night into the 30s for most areas. Given that winds, while remaining fairly light, are currently progged to be flipping more south/ southwesterly through this time frame, feel that primarily inland locations of northern lower and eastern upper with be most susceptible to another night of frost while temps bottom out in the upper 30s as you head near the lakes.

Interesting to note some of the latest trends regarding precipitation potential during the day Saturday into Saturday evening coinciding with the aforementioned shortwave energy passing overhead through the day. While moisture progs look anything but impressive, suppose some upper-level forcing combined with ample over-lake instability (delta Ts near 15 C) may spark a few isolated showers, mainly across eastern upper. Confidence in this happening is quite low, and have opted to keep the forecast dry at this point, but wouldn't entirely be shocked enough if a few showers dot the map at times.

Heading into Sunday, southerly return flow ramps up between high pressure shifting to our east and an area of low pressure spinning upstream across eastward across Saskatchewan. As a result, temperatures closer to mid-late September normals will be the rule under continued mostly sunny skies. Highs expected to be in the mid- 60s across the majority of northern Michigan.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Relatively mild southwest flow continues into the start of next week (daytime high temps returning to near or even slightly above normal readings) ahead of the a system that's progged to slide across far northern Ontario Monday night. Little in the way of precip chances accompany that system as the bulk of energy and moisture remains to our north, despite a weak cold front progged to cross the region locally during the day Tuesday. Assuming we stay dry through this time frame, no additional precip chances are expected through the majority of the long term forecast period until perhaps very late next Thursday when a cold front may trek across the region, although confidence is low in that.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 625 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

High pressure and dry air will lead to mostly clear skies and pressure will continue to build into the Great Lakes region today into tonight. This provide solid VFR conditions at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites for the next 24 hours (at least). Northerly winds under 10 kts will become near calm.

MARINE. Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Sep 18 2020

High pressure over the arrowhead of Minnesota will settle in right over the top of northern Michigan tonight, before sliding off to the east Saturday and Saturday night. The air mass will remain dry and cool with no chance for precipitation. Light northerly winds will become variable tonight, before turning more southerly Saturday. The next chance for showers will be Wednesday night into Thursday. No wind or wave issues for awhile. Winds do increase Sunday night into Monday for possible advisories.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ016>018- 021>036-041-042-086-087-095-096-099. FROST ADVISORY from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ020-088-097- 098. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 2 mi80 min NE 12 G 18 58°F 1030.8 hPa
45183 24 mi30 min ENE 7.8 G 12 52°F 60°F2 ft
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 48 mi20 min N 5.8 G 9.7 51°F 61°F1031.4 hPa34°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 54 mi42 min S 7 G 12 62°F1029.9 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 56 mi42 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 49°F 59°F1029.1 hPa29°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi65 minNNW 710.00 miFair54°F29°F40%1030.5 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi65 minNNE 710.00 miPartly Cloudy54°F27°F36%1030.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE7N7NW7NW6NW7NW6N8N9
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1 day agoW8NW6NW9NW8NW8N8N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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