Sunday, December8, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Norwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:06AMSunset 4:52PM Sunday December 8, 2019 3:05 AM EST (08:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:19PMMoonset 4:05AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 1029 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.gale warning in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Rain showers and snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:201912081130;;018576 FZUS53 KAPX 080329 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1029 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-081130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwood, MI
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location: 45.23, -85.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080800 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 300 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

. Milder temperatures with a light wintry mix possible .

High impact weather potential: Gales and lakeshore flooding concerns across/along Lake Michigan. Will also need to watch for a bit of freezing drizzle/very light freezing rain tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Relatively flat and faced-paced split mid and upper level flow regime found across the northern Conus at this early hour, with only exceptions being strong shortwave trough digging east across northern California and less intense shortwave exiting the New England coast. Strong northern stream wave well removed to our north across Hudson Bay, with attendant surface reflection running just out ahead of it. Weak cold front extends south from this low, running through the Upper Mississippi Valley. Retreat of large surface high off the east coast has resulted in rather intense warm air advection (especially elevated) across the Great Lakes, only magnified by the approach of that upstream cold front. Attendant moisture advection and convergence on nose of low level jet focusing off to our north, although the southern wing of this convergence axis did clip eastern upper Michigan, bringing a few flurries along with it. Otherwise, a mostly cloudy and relatively "mild" night across the Northwoods, with that warm air advection on gusty south winds allowing temperatures to begin to slowly rise during the early morning hours.

Flow regime remains flat and progressive today, amplifying some tonight as shortwave trough digs southeast out of Canada, reaching the northern Plains by Monday morning. Upstream cold front weakens and essentially stalls across our area tonight as mid level flow begins to parallel it. Surface low develops along this front well to our southwest in response to enhance mid level forcing, with this low moving northeast toward and into the Great Lakes Monday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and addressing some light wintry mix potential . especially tonight.

Details: Plenty of clouds will linger today, with a more solid area of lower clouds spreading into the area this afternoon as upstream cold front reaches eastern Upper Michigan by late this afternoon. Simply not much forcing accompanying this front, with nearly all mid level support removed well to its north and west. May see just enough low level moisture pooling to kick off a bit of drizzle, especially this afternoon (best chance north of the big bridge). Despite the all the clouds, persistence of warm air advection will result in temperatures running at least a few degrees above normal, with reading this afternoon mostly in the mid and upper 30s, with some lower 40s possible far southeast.

More of the same heading into this evening before more substantial moisture advection begins to develop across the southern Lakes in response to that approaching surface low. No doubt better chances for measurable precipitation will remain off to our south and northwest much of the overnight, the latter driven by increasing deformation ahead of primary mid level support. Much of our area expected to remain between these better moisture axes/enhanced convergence. Guidance derived soundings bear this out, with a distinct lack of moisture in the mid levels/ice nucleation temperatures. Definitely could see some more drizzle through the overnight, with perhaps more bonafide precipitation reaching our southern zones by daybreak. Temperatures remain a formidable challenge, with typical nocturnal trends interrupted by plenty of low clouds and renewed warm air advection aloft. Expect readings to slowly fall this evening, before becoming steady-state or even slowly recovering overnight. Still believe readings will be teetering around the freezing mark through the early morning hours across interior northern lower Michigan, with temperatures even several degrees colder across eastern upper Michigan. So the threat of some freezing drizzle is most definitely there . just have some serious question on how significant it will be. Will introduce this specific freezing drizzle threat in our latest hazardous weather graphics and products . refraining from any winter weather headline at this time.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High Impact Weather Potential: Messy wintry mix of snow, freezing rain/drizzle and rain Monday, transitioning to lake effect/enhanced snow Monday night through Tuesday.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Relatively zonal flow aloft across the country's midsection today will turn more amplified early this week as troughing digs across the plains tonight through midweek. Attendant surface low pressure emerging lee of the Rockies today will become the primary focus locally during the day Monday as the system treks northeastward across the Great Lakes. An awfully tight baroclinic zone expected to set up across northern lower MI will wreak forecast havoc through this time frame as a myriad of precip types and potential hazards are expected. However, as the system departs off to the east northeast Monday night into Tuesday, the season's coldest air-to-date is expected to pour into northern Michigan with renewed lake effect snow chances becoming the rule . and at least a more straightforward forecast with respect to precipitation type.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Precipitation type and amounts Monday. Lake effect/enhanced snow Monday night through Tuesday, along with occasionally gusty northwest winds as Monday's system departs to the east.

By Monday morning, aforementioned ~1002 mb area of low pressure expected to be centered to our southwest across the IL/IA/MO border . slowly trekking northeastward. Locally, a dry easterly wind out of Ontario may inhibit deep saturation and associated widespread precipitation initially across parts of forecast area. This exemplified well on several forecast model soundings suggesting top- down saturation an issue for some. However, certainly do expect some precip to be falling across the area . perhaps falling as drizzle/freezing drizzle across the bulk of northern lower and freezing drizzle/light snow north of the bridge given the lack of deep saturation. However, as the morning hours progress, a better surge of moisture is expected to allow precip to become more steady across the area, although will likely remain as a rain/snow/freezing rain mix across much of northern lower and primarily snow across eastern upper. This trend expected to continue right on through Monday afternoon, although precip rates/coverage may diminish once again across the southern half/two-thirds of the fcst area as low pressure treks directly overhead.

By late Monday afternoon/early evening, the system's center expected to be positioned over Lake Huron with colder air beginning to pour into the forecast area from the northwest . evident by H8 progs at 00z/Tue ranging from +2 C near Saginaw Bay to -12 C near Whitefish Point. By 00-03z/Tue, expecting the cold front to have cleared the entire forecast area with wrap around moisture combining with sufficient lake induced instability to bring frequent snow showers to much of the forecast area . most numerous/heaviest in the typical northwest flow snow belts of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan. In addition, occasionally gusty northwest winds to 25 mph or so may create some pockets of blowing snow and further reduced visibilities.

The core of the coldest air aloft continues to descend on northern Michigan during the day Tuesday with H8 temps falling to -18 to -22 C, and thus a continuation of lake effect snow showers through the remainder of the forecast period. Certainly would expect some diurnal disruption to any prominent banding during the day Tuesday and accumulations to be in a fanned out nature given boundary layer winds backing more due westerly through the day.

In terms of accumulation and impacts through this event: Expecting the bulk of snow accumulation during the day Monday across eastern upper with 1-4 inches (highest west and northwest). While some snow may mix in south of the bridge, expecting any ice to be of greater concern. Latest trends suggest at least a glaze of ice possible for most locations Monday morning through midday, although subtly warmer surface temps Monday afternoon may hamper that concern south of M-32 as the day wears on. As all precipitation transitions to snow late Monday afternoon/evening, expecting most locations to pick up an additional 1-3 inches of snow . perhaps some locally higher amounts in the snow belts. In pure lake effect Tuesday with much fluffier snow-to-liquid ratios . some 3-6 inch amounts certainly not out of the question in west-northwest flow snow belts tapering to lesser amounts outside of the hardest hit snow belts.

Overall . a messy wintry system with slick/icy/snow-covered roads and hazardous travel expected, but given the complexity of the system and associated precipitation type/amounts highly dependent on storm track, it's worth monitoring future outlooks for more details.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High impact weather potential: Lake effect snow continues tuesday night through Wednesday. Temperatures in the teens Wednesday with wind chill readings in the single digits below zero common.

Cold air advection continues right on through Tuesday night before weak warm air advection prevails during the day Wednesday . picking up significantly Wednesday night-Thursday as another system rolls by to our northwest. Primary focus revolves around continued lake effect snow chances/amounts Tuesday night through Wednesday in what looks like a potential 12-18 hour period of west/west-northwest winds putting the primary accumulation/impacts in west flow snow belts. Little too early to determine amounts, and while the potential is certainly there for some significant amounts, do have some concerns that the degree of cold air overhead may in fact be too cold for easily stackable dendrites given a shallow DGZ rooted essentially at the surface, falling inversion heights, and paltry large scale synoptic moisture support. None the less, a continued period of reduced visibilities and snow-covered roads for some. combine that with temperatures in the single digits-teens (wind chills in the single digits below zero) and it'll feel like a mid- winter day across northern Michigan.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1148 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

Sw low-level winds are bringing somewhat warmer air to the region. Best chance for precip during the TAF period will be over upper MI and points north, as a cold front eases into upper MI on Sunday. So not expecting much of anything at the TAF sites. MVFR cigs have been pushed north of the area this evening. VFR should continue overnight and Sunday morning. MVFR cigs will likely return Sunday afternoon.

Gusty s to sw winds, diminishing toward Sunday evening. LLWS overnight and early Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 257 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

Gusty southwest winds this morning, producing gales on Lake Michigan and small craft conditions elsewhere, will begin to subside this afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. Weak cold front settles overhead tonight and begins to stall, with winds quickly becoming light in the process. Gusty north and northwest winds return late Monday into Monday night as low pressure moves northeast along this front and post-system cold air advection develops.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ095-096. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. LM . GALE WARNING until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 PM EST this afternoon for LSZ321- 322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . JZ MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 2 mi86 min SSW 8.9 G 17 37°F 1014.9 hPa
WSLM4 47 mi66 min S 18 36°F 39°F1012.7 hPa (-4.1)27°F
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 54 mi54 min SSW 29 G 36 40°F 1010.8 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 56 mi54 min SSW 14 G 23 36°F 36°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi11 minS 12 G 2010.00 miFair36°F23°F60%1012.9 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi10 minS 910.00 miFair36°F22°F58%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmSE4S5S6S8S8SE7S8S8SE6S6S6S7SE6S10
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1 day agoNE5E4CalmNW9
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2 days agoNW15
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NW8NW8NW5NW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSE4CalmSE4E4SE3NE4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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