Wednesday, April8, 2020
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L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Norwood, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 8:17PM Wednesday April 8, 2020 11:00 AM EDT (15:00 UTC) Moonrise 8:16PMMoonset 6:49AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 346 Am Edt Wed Apr 8 2020
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Friday morning...
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of dense fog early in the morning. Showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Rain showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ323 Expires:202004081600;;752340 FZUS53 KAPX 080746 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 346 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ323-081600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norwood, MI
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location: 45.23, -85.51     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080741 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 341 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

. Warm today, showers late then turning colder tonight .

High Impact Weather Potential . Low.

Primary Forecast Concerns . How warm it will turn today and the timing of showers later today.

Big changes are on the horizon but not before a relatively warm day today. Low pressure moving by to our north will draw up moisture from our south and west out ahead of a strong cold front which will move across the region this evening. This is expected to lead to a period of rain showers from late this afternoon into the evening hours. In the meantime, low clouds and fog are expected to break up just after sunrise (some spots will continue to see pockets of dense fog in the meantime). Temperatures should be on the warm side, ranging from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south (get out there and enjoy it because temperatures do not look like they will resemble anytime close to that anytime soon). The rain showers should come to an end early tonight as colder air filters into the region behind the departing cold front. An upper level disturbance dropping in late tonight will lead to chances for rain and even snow showers (as the cold air becomes established). Lows tonight in the low and mid 30s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday Night) Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Thursday through Friday night

. Chilly .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . 12z/Thu when the 500 mb low sinks into Michigan, with a shortwave trough rotating into the state as well. Temperatures look to get "cold enough" for snow as the models soundings show most of the profile below freezing, and the sfc layer just around the mid 30s, and wetbulbs around freezing. So will have mainly snow or rain/snow mix for the day on Thursday, then tapering off to flurries in the evening. However, the 850 mb temperatures over the UP, Lake Superior and N Lake Michigan look to be around -9C to about -10C. Will have to watch for lake enhancement or lake effect snow, but with the dry air in the 850-700 mb layer, will continue flurries/slight chance snow into Friday morning. Friday, the potential for LES begins to diminish through the afternoon as the 850 mb temperatures begin to climb, as the 1000-850 mb wind ridge moves into the region ahead of the next system. Friday night looks dry with the warming temperatures and return flow.

LONG TERM. (Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Monday may have an accumulating snow, but there is considerable uncertainty with the model tracks.

Extended (Saturday through Tuesday) . Saturday looks to be dry as the system in the southern plains begins to advance into the central part of the country. The rain breaks out in Lower Michigan sometime late evening (like after 03z/Sun) and then spreading across the state by 18z/Sunday. The rain is off and on through MOnday on the ECMWF as the dry slot moves into the forecast area, and dries us out before the 500 mb low drags the cold air and precipitation back in. The GFS, on the otherhand, keeps the low centered in such a way that the precipitation continue through Tuesday morning. By the looks of it, LES will be possible through Wednesday morning.

The models have again gone all over the place with this pattern. So will not be surprised with the changing forecast details. Right now, the models have a 400 mile difference in the sfc low track Monday morning.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 140 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Tough aviation forecast early this morning with most cigs/vsbys currently in the IFR to LIFR range. This should mainly continue over the next several hours, however slightly drier air will likely lead to some improvement over the next few hours. VFR conditions are then expected to develop shortly after sunrise. Showers are expected to move in late today into this evening as a strong cold front moves into the region. MVFR cigs are then expected to develop early Thursday. Looking ahead, winds are expected to be gusty during the day Thursday.

MARINE. Issued at 304 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

Westerly winds today will shift into the northwest this evening behind a strong cold front. Winds will increase and become gusty Thursday into Thursday night. Gale force wind gusts are possible at that time across some nearshore zones (especially on Lake Michigan). Winds will remain fairly gusty into Friday as well.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . GALE WATCH from Thursday morning through Friday morning for LMZ323-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . AS SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . AS MARINE . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 2 mi81 min WSW 13 G 16 37°F 1007.5 hPa
PNLM4 - 9087096 - Port Inland, MI 54 mi49 min NW 8.9 G 12 40°F 1005.7 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 56 mi49 min W 8.9 G 13 39°F 37°F1005.5 hPa37°F

Wind History for Port Inland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi65 minWSW 40.25 miFog38°F36°F95%1006.8 hPa
Bellaire, Antrim County Airport, MI23 mi65 minN 01.75 miFog/Mist40°F39°F96%1007.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCVX

Wind History from CVX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE5SE5CalmE5CalmSE6E4NE4E4SE3CalmCalmCalmW5W6W6W6W7SW5W10W7W6W10W6
1 day agoW3CalmNW3NW4NW5N8N3N6N6CalmCalmSE3SE5SE5SE5SE5SE5SE6SE6SE7SE4E6E7E9
2 days agoNW4NW3NW6N5NW6NW6NW6W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4E3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.