Big Sky, MT Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Big Sky, MT

April 14, 2024 9:44 PM MDT (03:44 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM
Moonrise 9:38 AM   Moonset 1:42 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Big Sky, MT
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Area Discussion for - Great Falls, MT
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FXUS65 KTFX 150236 AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Great Falls MT 836 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024

UPDATE

Showers and a few isolated thunderstorms continue to track N/NE across primarily central MT this evening. While most of these cells are weak, there is pocket of higher instability (CAPE) and wind shear that lies along the north slopes of the Little Belts and Snowies where a few stronger cells developed this evening.
Still some potential for thunderstorms across Cascade county and vicinity through 10pm, but loss of heating and instability through the rest of this evening should limit the risk for additional thunderstorms elsewhere and a few showers will linger after midnight. Hoenisch

SYNOPSIS

A few showers and thunderstorms will track from Southwest Montana into North-central Montana this evening. On Monday, expect similar conditions across eastern portions of north-central and southwest Montana. After one more day of mild temperatures on Monday much colder temperatures develop by the middle of the week, along with rain changing to snow at all elevations by Tuesday night.

AVIATION
620 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024 (15/00Z TAF Period)

Scattered showers and a few isolated thunderstorms will continue to track slowly north across central and portions of southwest MT this evening. Expect some local mountain obscuration in the vicinity of showers in addition to erratic winds. VFR conditions prevail otherwise with mid-level cloud-cover increasing some overnight and additional showers developing later tonight through Monday across eastern portions of north-central and southwest Montana. Hoenisch

Refer to weather.gov/zlc for more detailed regional aviation weather and hazard information.

PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 620 PM MDT Sun Apr 14 2024/

Key Points...

--Turning Windy and Cooler by Tuesday --Areas of Snow and Much Colder temperatures Developing Tuesday Night through Wednesday --Unseasonably Cold Temperatures Linger Through Late in the Work Week

Satellite imagery this afternoon shows mainly clear skies across the north-central MT with cumulus cloud initiation and showers developing across SW MT beneath diffluent flow aloft to the north of a closed mid-upper level low tracking east across the Northern Great Basin. Hi-res model ensembles are in fairly good agreement depicting the shower activity to lift north through central and north- central MT this evening. In addition to isolated lightning, dry lower levels will support some brief gusty/erratic winds near showers. Later tonight through Monday, an axis of deformation (stretching/shearing winds) to the north of the upper low, sets up from N to S across eastern portions of N-central and SW MT and will be a focus for additional showers.

Gusty west winds develop late Monday through Tuesday as low pressure associated with the upper low tracking by to our south emerges and deepens across Nebraska while westerly flow aloft strengths across the Northern Rockies in advance of a strong upper level trough digging southward through BC. Models are in fairly good agreement now with the larger scale trough continuing to dig SE through MT Tues night and Wed. Within the larger trough a closed mid-upper level center develops and tracks east across southern AB/SK Wed while an embedded wave and associated upper jet also circulate through the SW periphery the trough across ID into WY by late Wednesday.

Winter weather impacts begin Tuesday afternoon near Glacier NP as precipitation develops with the arrival of the larger scale trough and a colder airmass from Canada begins to surge south along the Rockies. Most of the forecast area is likely to see at least a period of snow with some minor accumulations as the upper trough and colder airmass dig through the area Tuesday night through Wednesday morning with precipitation decreasing by Wednesday night. Snowfall amounts are only one aspect of this system and forecasts have not changed significantly over the last few forecast cycles with amounts in excess of 4 inches primarily confined to the mountains with 1-3 inch snowfall amounts in the valleys of SW MT and areas adjacent to the mountains in N-central MT and generally less than in inch forecast elsewhere across the N-central MT plains. A winter weather advisory continues for eastern portions of Glacier NP and adjacent portions of GLacier county, where gusty north winds may also cause additional visibility and travel impacts Tuesday night through early Wednesday. A Winter Storm Watch continues for the mountains of Madison and Gallatin counties where the highest snowfall amounts are now forecast in association with the previous mentioned wave moving across southern ID into WY. Latest forecasts give a 50-80% probability of snowfall amounts in excess of 12 inches across northern portions of the Gallatin Range including the Hyalite area.
Additional winter weather statements may be needed for the mountains of central MT where at least some minor impacts to travel over passes is likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Current forecasts have a 50-70% probability for 4 inch or greater snowfall amounts at Rogers Pass, Kings Hill and Bozeman Pass.

Windy and colder temperatures are the other aspects of this storm system with gusty northwest winds particularly across north- central MT Tuesday night through Wednesday from both the incoming surge of higher pressure and colder airmass as well as the gradient across the region as low pressure tracks east across the Canadian Prairies Wednesday. While very little accumulating snow is expected across NE portions of the forecast area, northwesterly wind gusts in excess of 45 mph are likely (50-70%) across portions of Blaine county with 30-40 mph wind gusts widespread across the rest of north-central MT. This will be in combination with daytime temperatures only in the upper 30s to near 40.
Precipitation and winds decrease Wednesday night but medium range model ensembles are coming into better agreement supporting an upper level pattern that would keep the cold airmass across the region through the rest of the work week with daytime temperatures in the upper 30s to around 40 with overnight temperatures in upper teens to low 20s. Hoenisch

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
GTF 45 69 39 53 / 50 30 0 20 CTB 39 64 34 45 / 10 0 10 50 HLN 46 66 39 53 / 30 30 0 10 BZN 42 63 31 55 / 40 70 20 20 WYS 31 56 25 47 / 40 70 20 30 DLN 39 59 32 56 / 10 50 0 10 HVR 44 71 41 54 / 10 20 10 30 LWT 43 63 36 52 / 50 60 10 10

TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from noon Tuesday to 6 AM MDT Wednesday for East Glacier Park Region-Northern High Plains.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday afternoon for Gallatin and Madison County Mountains and Centennial Mountains.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEKS ENNIS BIG SKY,MT 18 sm34 minSE 0510 smClear52°F25°F35%29.88
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