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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 306 Pm Edt Wed Oct 4 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Tonight..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Numerous showers and scattered Thunderstorms early in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 042339 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 739 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Bye, Bye, Bye Summer

High Impact Weather Potential...Minimal.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Thunder potential.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Initial surface cold front will begin to move across the region later tonight. Scattered to numerous showers and possibly isolated thunderstorms (higher resolution guidance points to low end instability) are expected in advance of the front. Cooler temperatures are expected to bleed into the region late tonight making for somewhat better sleeping conditions.
South-southwest winds will veer southwesterly late tonight and continue to be a bit gusty at times (upwards of around 20 mph).
Rainfall amounts generally around a tenth of an inch but with locally higher amounts of up to a third of an inch possible closer to Saginaw Bay. Lows tonight generally in the mid 50s to around 60.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Saturday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Forecast: Longwave trough axis centered upstream from Manitoba through the central Plains at the start of the period Thursday will cross the western Great Lakes to wrap up the week into the weekend. Several mid-level perturbations rippling through the flow during this time with the primarily theme of the short term forecast period being a snap back to reality from our impressive late season warmth.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Rain chances and falling temperatures.

Initial cold front tied to low pressure over Hudson Bay is expected to be slowly crossing northern Michigan Thursday morning. Secondary cold front stretched from the upper MS Valley into the Plains will make inroads across the forecast area late Thursday into Thursday night. Ongoing showers Thursday morning, most numerous across northeast lower, are expected to continue to shift east through the morning and early afternoon with additional scattered shower chances arriving with that secondary boundary during the evening and early overnight hours. Occasionally breezy southwest to west-southwest winds continue with the highest gusts around 20 mph. Highs generally in the mid-60s to near 70 area-wide.

The secondary boundary will really allow cold advection to ramp up through the remainder of the period. H8 temps fall to around 1-2 C across the northern Lakes during the day Friday, which should readily activate a lake response with additional showers becoming more numerous from midday Friday through Saturday. Latest suite of guidance continues to hint at the low-levels remaining just a touch to warm to mix in any nocturnal snowflakes across the interior higher terrain, despite H8 temps falling a few degrees below 0 C.
Worth at least keeping an eye on heading toward the weekend as it wouldn't need to be a whole lot cooler to introduce that idea.
Breezy again with high temperatures struggling to get out of the 50s for most on Friday. Northwest winds Saturday, gusty at times, with temperatures topping out from the mid-40s to low 50s across the Northwoods.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Deep trough axis pivots across the eastern Great Lakes to wrap up the weekend with continued lake effect rain shower chances prevailing locally to wrap up the weekend. During this time, upper wave is expected to close off before pinwheeling north into Quebec with latest trends suggesting this feature retrogrades back into Ontario by Tuesday into at least the middle of next week. If these trends do prevail -- unsettled, cool (more seasonable) and occasionally breezy conditions would be the rule for much of the long-term forecast period.

AVIATION
(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

Band of VFR cigs expected to continue to spread across the taf locations tonight into Thursday. May see a brief period of MVFR cigs later tonight and Thursday morning, especially at KAPN.
Scattered to numerous showers will accompany these clouds, with showers slowly ending from west to east later tonight and Thursday. Current trends support no vis restrictions. Light winds through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 241 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

South-southwesterly winds will be a bit gusty through this evening. Winds will then veer a bit more westerly late tonight into Thursday. Advisory level wind gusts are expected to continue on Lake Michigan through late this evening. Winds are expected to pick up to near small craft advisory level Friday with gusty winds expected this weekend.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ341-342- 344>346.
LS...NONE.

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