Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Horton Bay, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 218 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Rapid fire pattern continues across the region, made so by elongated Pacific Jet cutting across the Conus. Northern Michigan temporarily in a reprieve between systems, with fast moving deep layer high pressure bringing dry and near seasonable conditions across the Northwoods. Break will be short-lived as next shortwave trough is already noted racing east into the northern Plains. This wave and its attendant surface low/occluded front will work across the Great Lakes later tonight into the day Friday.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and shower evolution tonight and Friday. Gusty winds, especially over those big waters, will also need addressing.

Details:

Rather perfect juxtaposition of respectable moisture return within a combination of deep layer forcing (surface convergence topped by mid level support and left exit region upper jet dynamics) should drive a fairly well organized band of showers into and through our area tonight into Friday morning. Quick movement of system should negate and significant rain amounts, with most areas likely receiving near or under a quarter of an inch. A bit of elevated cape noted, but think any thunder potential largely remains off to our south.
Increasingly gusty south winds tonight will definitely keep it mild (for this time of year at least) with lows only in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Most organized showers end from west to east Friday morning, although arrival of main mid level wave and attendant secondary cold front/additional moisture will likely keep a few more showers/areas of drizzle during the afternoon...especially in those favored lake effect prone areas. Winds remain gusty as they swing around to the west. Any significant cold air advection holds off until later in the day, allowing temperatures to warm back into the 40s and lower 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 218 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Deep troughing develops across the area heading through this weekend into early next week, driven by complex wave interaction...with lead wave cutting across the lower Lakes/northern Ohio Valley Saturday night as vigorous shortwave digs straight south out of northern Ontario. Troughing looks to reach maturity later Sunday into Monday, supporting a direct avenue for cold Canadian air to drop directly south across the region. Flow regime looks to become more progressive thereafter, forcing a steady exit of this troughing as we head into the middle of next week.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Temperature trends and addressing potential for accumulating snow later this weekend into early next week.

Details:

Friday night into Saturday looks largely uneventful with weak high pressure and drying through the vertical spreading overhead. Suppose some light lake effect is possible, but most areas will remain dry.
Cooldown does start on Saturday, with highs mostly in the upper 30s to middle 40s.

Forecast becomes quite a bit more complex Saturday night through Monday. First order of business centers on the intial lower lakes/Ohio Valley wave. Although a full guidance blend approach shows deformation driven snows spreading across most of northern lower Michigan, Dprog/Dt's of those same models show a steady south drift with best forcing...suggesting this could be more of a southern and central Michigan concern. Given lingering uncertainties, will simply utilize that blend methodology for now, which does show an inch or so of snow Saturday night across most of northern lower Michigan...with some Lake Huron enhancement perhaps bringing a little more snow down near Saginaw Bay. Again, would not be at all surprised if synoptic snows mount to very little across northern Michigan.

Attentions turns to lake processes Sunday into Monday as coldest air yet this season drops south across the big waters. Lakes no doubt will be activated as H8 temperatures drop into the lower teens below zero...setting up an intense over-water thermal gradient.
Arrival of that southward diving Ontario wave will add synoptic support as well. Again, as mentioned yesterday, question is one of wind direction. Potential development of lake aggregate troughing only adds to the complexity. With all that said, looks as if the primary wind direction through much of the event has a very northerly component. This would keep best Lake Superior snows west of our eastern upper counties, and relegate best Lake Michigan snows near and southwest of Grand Traverse Bay. Most educated guess for greatest snow accumulation potential is in the elevated interior sections of Leelanau County, which could be several inches if everything lines up correctly. Actual shoreline areas of Leelanau County and points south will likely see significant lake modification...perhaps supporting more of a rain/snow mix and aggressive melting at the surface. As mentioned, will need to watch the development of lake aggregate troughing, which may force a more northwest component to the convective depth winds into the more traditional snowbelts of northwest lower Michigan. As one can see, uncertainty is high through this period, with forced forecasted snow amounts more than likely not verifying. Will simply continue to monitor and utilize our graphics and hazardous weather products to address the potential for a higher impact scenario.

Of much more certainty is the arrival of below normal temperatures, with highs both Sunday and Monday likely not getting out of the 30s.
Gusty winds will of course make it feel significantly colder.

Still appears pattern relaxes heading into the middle portions of next week as troughing gets punted off to the northeast. This would allow temperatures to return to more normal levels by Wednesday and end any lingering lake snow concerns.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 101 PM EST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions this afternoon slowly decrease to MVFR late tonight as a band of rain moves from west to east. Rain timing beginning around 6 and 9Z for Lake Michigan adjacent terminals (including KCIU), between 9 and 11Z for KAPN. -SHRA continues at times through early Friday after the main band of -RA/RA moves eastward. MVFR CIGs likely to continue for most terminals through midday Friday, IFR possible KPLN and KCIU. Winds increase aloft tonight, with WS of 35 to 45 KTs and breezy to windy sfc conditions developing from west to east.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Saturday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 5 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342.
Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM EST Friday for LMZ344>346.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 5 AM EST Saturday for LSZ321-322.