Monday, January27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:05AMSunset 5:34PM Monday January 27, 2020 11:00 PM EST (04:00 UTC) Moonrise 9:47AMMoonset 8:24PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 944 Pm Est Mon Jan 27 2020
Overnight..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:202001281045;;623456 FZUS53 KAPX 280244 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 944 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ348-281045-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 280345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1045 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 942 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Weak troughing remains over the Great Lakes region late this evening in the wake of slow-moving low pressure now centered NE of New England. Large area of strong high pressure is centered over Central Canada and the Northern Plains. Lingering cyclonic flow combined with shallow moisture and weak over-lake instability continues to produce some light lake effect snow showers across our typical snowbelt areas. Little will change as we head into the overnight hours. Expect well under an inch of new snow accumulation overnight given low inversion heights and very limited moisture.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

High impact weather potential: Slight chance of freezing drizzle around the Grand Traverse Bay area this evening.

An upper level low over western Ontario will continue to slide to the southeast towards the Great Lakes region as surface high pressure over the northern Great Plains continues to push into the forecast area. This high pressure and accompanied drier air will continue to produce only very light flurries and drizzle/freezing drizzle. Forecast soundings show shallow moisture reaching -10C by 03Z, which will indicate an end to drizzle and changing to all light snow. This light precipitation will be contained over mainly northwest lower and parts of eastern upper as lake effect. Delta T/s will be marginal for lake effect . only around 13C, and moisture will also be lacking. Expect only light precipitation. Inversion heights do increase to around 4kft overnight. This with the moist layer in the DGZ zone could produce some nice dendrites and increase some snowfall reports higher than forecast . but will still be light. Eastern upper will be the coldest tonight will drainage flow out of the higher terrain of Ontario across the Saint Marys River. Temperatures there may reach into the lower teens (possibly lower?). Temperatures elsewhere will be in the low to mid 20s overnight. Winds will remain light out of the northwest throughout this forecast period, but could see some gusts to 10 to 15 mph in the higher terrain areas.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Light Lake effect snow/freezing drizzle Tuesday .

Pattern Synopsis:

Broad troughing will be exiting off of the Atlantic coast Tuesday morning while a more amplified wave behind it will make its way from Texas across the southeastern US through the period. Amplified ridging is expected across the Rocky Mountain west during the short term. A weak shortwave is also expected move through the Great Lakes Tuesday, bringing subtle ascent aloft across the area. At the surface, high pressure centered over south-central Canada/northern Great Plains continues to build into the region through Wednesday.

Forecast/Details:

Ongoing lake effect snow is expected mainly across northwest lower MI Tuesday morning. While some freezing drizzle could possibly be mixed in, snow is the anticipated p-type through the afternoon. Mostly NW/NNW winds will be in place across the area with water temperatures near 4 C underneath in northern Lake Michigan, which will provide marginal instability to support lake effect precip.

A saturated near-surface profile extending up to about 800mb is evident on forecast soundings, reaching temps between -10 to -13 C at the inversion. This would favor cloud ice nucleation and, in turn, snowfall as opposed to freezing drizzle. The "heaviest" snowfall (light by any northern MI standard) is expected Tuesday morning with some support aloft provided by the aforementioned shortwave and possibility for some larger flake sizes with greatest moisture present. Accumulations are expected to remain near an inch or less across northwest lower through Tuesday.

Winds begin to shift more northerly and weaken some Tuesday afternoon, displacing the focus of precipitation chances through the evening. Additionally, favorable moisture begins to depart the forecast area. This introduces higher chances for freezing drizzle as cloud ice nucleation could struggle. With mainly northerly winds Tuesday evening/night, the greatest chance for precipitation would be areas of northwest lower Mi south of Grand Traverse Bay.

Mostly dry conditions are expected on Wednesday as high pressure moves in and moisture exits. High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be in the upper 20s for most across northern Michigan. Some chilly overnight lows dipping into the low teens and single digits are possible with cold air drainage from Canada given weak northerly surface winds.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now . Monitoring weekend/early next week.

Mostly dry conditions are expected up to the end of the work week across northern MI as surface high pressure continues to move into the eastern CONUS. The next chance for precip after Tuesday appears to be on Friday with the arrival of a potential shortwave the could bring support aloft. Guidance hints towards a more active pattern beginning to manifest itself this upcoming weekend/early next week, but details will become more apparent as the week progresses. High temperatures in the upper 20s and lower 30s are expected across the area on Thursday and may warm up a few degrees over the following days. Low temperatures could dip into the teens Friday morning, but otherwise remain in the lower to mid 20s through the weekend. High temperatures near or above freezing this upcoming weekend could lead to mixed precipitation concerns with any that falls.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1045 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Weak troughing and lingering shallow low level moisture will maintain low clouds and overall MVFR cigs across all of Northern Lower Michigan overnight thru Tuesday night. Weak over-lake instability and N/NW low level flow will continue to produce light snow showers and/or light freezing drizzle for portions of NW Lower Michigan (TVC and mbL) for the next 24 hours. N/NW winds will remain AOB 10 kts thru the forecast period.

MARINE. Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 27 2020

Light winds are then expected through much of the upcoming week as high pressure continues to move eastward from the northern Great Plains and into our forecast area. Only small chances of precipitation through at least mid-week expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . TL SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . TL


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi20 min NW 5.1 G 7 31°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi42 min N 6 G 7 31°F 1013.7 hPa25°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi66 minNW 810.00 miOvercast31°F25°F79%1015.2 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi65 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast31°F23°F76%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW8W7NW8NW8NW7NW9NW7NW8NW7NW7NW8NW8NW8N7N7N7NW6N7NW5NW5--NW8NW8
1 day agoW4W5W4W6W4W5W6W4W53W6W4W10
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2 days agoE11E8E7E7E8E6SE4S4S5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmCalmW3W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.