Sunday, March7, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 6:33PM Sunday March 7, 2021 10:28 PM EST (03:28 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 12:14PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 1006 Pm Est Sun Mar 7 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 4 to 6 feet after midnight.
Monday..West wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:202103081115;;637091 FZUS53 KAPX 080306 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1006 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ348-081115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 080219 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 919 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 919 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

00Z APX sounding showed a very narrow mid-level moist layer, centered on 750mb, and very dry air below (850mb dew pt depression was some 40C). But the initial shortwave moving thru the area has increased that moist layer and steepened lapse rates. Convective mid-level returns continue to cross northern MI, and 20dbZ have been seen less then 1500ft AGL ne of the radar. Though no precip has been reported by any ob site, do suspect that some flakes are reaching the ground in isolated spots. Have added a small chance of flurries/light snow showers to parts of northern MI this evening.

Guidance continues to aggressively moisten the mid-, and to some degree low-, levels overnight in eastern upper MI. Substantial theta-e advection is driving this deeper moistening, which also develops an above-freezing warm layer aloft. Actually getting precip out of this is quite uncertain; the RAP has occasionally been relatively aggressive is bringing a narrow band of showers across much of northern MI overnight. But at the present, the RAP and most other near-term guidance is dry, and only a few weak/ meager returns are noted upstream (moving into ne WI). Will continue to ride with a small chance for -FZRA overnight in the Straits area and points north. QPF would be very small, and any potential impact should be likewise.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 342 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

. Spotty Light Wintry Precip Overnight .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Sharp short-wave ridge axis is just upstream . stretching from the western U.P. down through Illinois. Short-wave impulse and associated surface trough/boundary follows close behind, swinging through south-central Canada into the Upper Midwest with a batch of high level warm advection forced cloud cover pressing into the western lakes. Also of note, a narrow line of mid cloud cover is crossing central Upper Michigan down toward GRB with some spotty radar returns. Line of elevated weak convection appears tied to advancing mid level theta-e axis coincident with some steeper lapse rates.

Meanwhile, large area of surface high pressure remains in control of our weather, stretching from the central lakes southward to the Gulf with southerly return flow increasing and leaning through the Upper Midwest into the western lakes.

Dampening short-wave impulse is expected to slide into and through the northern lakes region through tonight while surface cold front advances into the far western Great Lakes by early Monday morning. Axis of low level warm air (>0C at 850 mb) ahead of the boundary will fold into the region later tonight resulting in a narrow ribbon of low-mid level warm advection forcing sliding through.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precip chances and type through tonight along with stratus/freezing drizzle possibilities.

Details:

First off, initial narrow line of mid cloud cover and elevated radar returns will move through the CWA through this evening (recent NAMNEST/HRRR runs clearly pick up on the elevated convection). But given the amount of dry low level air in place right now (single digit dewpoints), I am doubtful that much gets to the ground. Just mentioning it just in case.

Meanwhile, NAM/GFS guidance remain very bullish in developing low cloud cover through the Upper Midwest late this afternoon and further expanding into the northern lakes region tonight. However, again given the amount of low level dry air entrenched through the region and no sign of any low cloud development in the Upper Midwest at this juncture, I am skeptical that we see much low cloud/drizzle development . at least through tonight anyway (we could see some post-frontal low cloud/drizzle development on Monday).

But, spotty light warm advection forced precip is possible late this evening and through the overnight hours. Warm nose aloft in concert with slightly steeper lapse rates aloft (pushing 7C/Kg in the 700-500 mb layer) and below freezing surface temps might bring some spotty freezing rain drops/sleet pellets across eastern Upper Michigan and the tip of the mitt. Minimal QPF, so I anticipate very minimal if any impacts.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 342 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal, except for perhaps some lingering wintry precip across Eastern Upper .

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Shortwave passing through the flow to our north with attendant surface reflection looks to be exiting stage right Monday morning . though perhaps not without lingering a bit of cloud cover across the area, with light wintry precip exiting the Eastern UP through the morning hours. As mid-level subsidence presses into the region ahead of broad upper-level ridging . will look for surface high pressure to return during the afternoon in conjunction with temperatures warming to above normals . at least, across much of northern Lower. A stronger push of warm air looks to enter the region going into the day Tuesday . as return flow strengthens ahead of next system upstream in the central Plains. Warm, moist air advecting into the area through the day Tuesday should lead to snowmelt . and perhaps fog potential as well later in the day. Warm air advection Wednesday ahead of the next system should lead to another warm day . though it will be rainy and breezy as this system moves into the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns: light wintry precip linger Monday morning . temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday . precip chances and gusty winds late Tuesday into Wednesday .

First thing to deal with will be the potential for that light wintry precip to linger over the area Monday morning for a time. Moisture depth appears to get even shallower with time going through the day Monday . though model derived soundings indicate there may be some potential for low clouds to linger around through part of the day Monday as we're marginally sideswiped to the north by a weak, latitudinally-oriented cold boundary late Monday into Monday night. Not entirely sure how well that idea will pan out . given that some models are currently having a hard time with upstream low clouds (i e., too cloudy vs reality). so continued with an idea of clearing at least in the afternoon, though clouds should stick around through at least the early part of the day. Either way . temperatures across Eastern Upper should approach and/or exceed the freezing mark by mid-late morning/early afternoon, which should serve to mitigate the frozen precipitation potential. Even so . Monday morning commuters across northern portions of the area . especially north of the Bridge . may want to leave a little extra time in case of slick spots (or having to run the defrosters).

Temperatures Tuesday into Wednesday may not be entirely as straightforward as they seem . though the idea of much warmer air seems quite plausible given warm advection not only at the surface . with surface high pressure across the southeastern US and low pressure in the Plains . but also through a majority of the column . as flow through the vertical turns primarily southwesterly ahead of troughing aloft. Looks as though perhaps consensus guidance is not as bullish with warmth today as in previous days . though still warm, with highs potentially into the 50s. Warm, moist advection, as mentioned above, may serve to melt at least a portion of the snowpack, with potential for dewpoints to rise above freezing by mid-week. This may throw a bit of fog potential into the forecast, though confidence is not extremely high in this attm. Currently looks like best chance for that would be later Tuesday into Wednesday with the warmest and moistest air closest to saturation. Will have to keep an eye on this going forward. Even so . will still look for temperatures to be warm and springlike, even if the weather outside looks grungy.

There is some uncertainty in exactly how the pattern for Tuesday and Wednesday unfolds . though there seems to be pretty good agreement in two systems moving through the central Plains . the first one, a bit further west, which attm keeps the majority of its precipitation along or north of the Canadian border. Can't rule out that we won't see anything with it, though . especially later in the day Tuesday . as its cold front approaches. As upper level troughing moves eastward . and another shortwave moves through the flow . looks like that second low pressure to develop in the central Plains will ride up the cold front/baroclinic zone left by the first low . allowing the second system to set its sights a little more firmly on Michigan. Since this second system will be a little further east than the first . we should be in a better position for warm/moist advection . and do note that moisture transport is stronger and more anomalous across the Great Lakes area . with pwats near or above climatological maxes for March 10-12th. Not a surprise . given the wide open Gulf . strong southwesterly flow . and potential for some upper level ascent working in our favor with upper level speed max to our north placing us in a position favored for divergence aloft and upward motion. Bottom line: Wednesday looks like a pretty wet day overall. It should be relatively breezy/gusty as well, as pressure gradient increases between high pressure to our southeast . and low pressure encroaching from the west.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 342 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal for now .

Looks like precipitation will likely continue into Thursday as well . as it looks like the cold front with this system will be moving through during the day. There are some differences between the models for Thursday and beyond . which will determine how much cold air will get into the region behind the system as strong, latitudinally-oriented jet sets up somewhere in the vicinity of the Great Lakes . with troughing across the southwestern US. This lends itself to a fair amount of uncertainty in the forecast beyond Friday (actually, beyond Thursday, for what it's worth), so will hold off on playing around too much with the long term until models can settle their differences. One thing does look reasonable despite the uncertainty, though: it should be cooler in the latter half of the week than in the first half of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 646 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

Some MVFR cigs possible late Monday. LLWS tonight.

VFR conditions out there now, with cirrus overhead and a few patches mid clouds edging in. High pressure is moving off to the east, and southerly flow will increase tonight ahead of cold front now in MN. Expect mid/high clouds to thicken further, but expect VFR conditions thru most of Monday. Some potential for MVFR cigs to develop late Monday, but for now only the APN TAF has this outright.

Southerly winds increase tonight, with LLWS overnight. Sw to w breezes on Monday.

MARINE. Issued at 342 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

South to southwest gustiness increases tonight ahead of a cold front that folds into the region late tonight into Monday. Gusts sufficient for small craft advisory headlines for most of the Lake Michigan and Huron nearshore waters into Monday morning. Winds/waves diminish through the day Monday and all headlines will likely be allowed to expire as planned.

No additional marine headlines anticipated through Tuesday at this juncture.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Monday for LHZ346. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Monday for LHZ347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . ADAM SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . JZ MARINE . ADAM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi29 min SSW 14 G 16 28°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi59 min SSW 8.9 G 12 27°F 1027.2 hPa18°F
TBIM4 25 mi89 min 18 G 20 28°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi35 minSSE 710.00 miMostly Cloudy25°F16°F69%1028.7 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi34 minSSE 610.00 miOvercast26°F17°F71%1026.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr5W6W5NW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E8SE8SE9E11SE10SE7SE8SE7SE7
1 day agoNW9
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2 days agoNW5W6W6W5W5W7W6W7NW6NW6W7NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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