Saturday, April10, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:20PM Saturday April 10, 2021 7:24 AM EDT (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 5:50AMMoonset 5:51PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 405 Am Edt Sat Apr 10 2021
Today..South wind 5 to 10 knots becoming east 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the evening. Isolated showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:202104101615;;319074 FZUS53 KAPX 100805 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 405 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ348-101615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 101048 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 648 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

High impact weather potential: Low. Heavy rain tonight in the south. Perhaps a few thunderstorms northern lower MI.

Long-lived stacked low near the nw shore of Superior will lift toward James Bay, losing its influence on the region. However, if you are a big fan of stacked lows, do I have great news for you. Low pressure lifting out of the southern plains will deepen, eventually becoming stacked and fully matured over northern IL overnight. A long warm conveyor belt will pivot across northern MI late today and especially tonight, with the potential for heavy rain.

Earlier showers have lifted north of the forecast area, having recently departed eastern upper MI. Some stratus and a touch of fog still lingers in eastern upper, while partial clearing has arrived in northern lower MI. Relatively quiet conditions are expected this morning, as a 500mb shortwave ridge between the two upper lows builds overhead. Mid-level isentropic ascent begins to ramp up from s to n beginning at midday. That rapid mid-level moistening (as southerly 700mb winds increase to 30-35kt) could contribute to a few showers in southern areas as soon as early afternoon. But rain will start making a more emphatic push into the area after 4-5pm, with both increasing theta-e advection and steepening lapse rates aloft (greater than 7Cc/km in the 800-600mb layer). MuCape will not be abundant, with 500j/kg probably the top end. But as forcing for ascent ramps up, the combination is enough to warrant a mention of thunder in much of northern lower MI for this afternoon and especially evening.

Tonight, the moisture (a broad area with PWATS around 1.25) and precip plume pivots northward across northern MI. 700mb s to se winds ramp up to 40kt this evening, just ahead of the low, further aiding moisture transport. A trailing dry slot will take a while to get here, only reaching southern parts of the forecast area very late tonight. Total event QPF will be highest in the south (around an inch in Gladwin) and lowest north (0.20" for the Sault).

Max temps today will approach 70f in the interior of northern lower MI, with 60s elsewhere, and some 50s in coastal eastern upper MI. Min temps tonight mainly mid-upper 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Pattern Synopsis:

A shortwave trough will progress into the southern Great Lakes on Sunday before coming to a halt after encountering stout upper-level ridging in place across the NE CONUS/E Canada. An associated surface cyclone will also trek into the region on Sunday. This system will become increasingly vertically stacked with time, eventually halting favorable advections to help support the cyclone. A second shortwave/speed max looks to slide across the Midwest/upper Mississippi Valley on Monday, providing forcing for ascent aloft across parts of the Great Lakes.

Forecast/Details:

Rain chances will be ongoing across parts of northern Michigan Sunday morning following a wet night across the area. The cold front wrapping around the base of the cyclone will continue to push northward through the lower peninsula during the AM hours, helping to support rain along and north of the front that will wane in intensity through Sunday morning. This swath of steady rain will mainly be over eastern upper and the Tip of the Mitt while colder, dry air wrapping around the system looks to bring a break in rain chances across parts of northern lower at least temporarily on Sunday. Additional off-and-on rain chances move in Sunday afternoon/evening as the system settles overhead. After a break in precip Sunday night, yet another round of rain is expected across northern Michigan on Monday as the aforementioned shortwave provides favorable ascent aloft to spark these. Thunder is not anticipated during the short term due to the absence of instability aloft and strong dynamical forcing. Otherwise, temperatures across the region will begin to cool down on Sunday with the frontal passage during the morning. Highs look to reach into the upper 50s/low 60s for most on Sunday and Monday underneath partly to mostly cloudy skies both days.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

After a period of unsettled weather over the weekend leaks into the beginning of the week, most of this upcoming work week appears quiet for northern Michigan. The jet is expected to be draped south of the Great Lakes through the long term with no substantial systems anticipated to impact the region after the system discussed in the short term eventually dissipates amidst no support aloft. While much isn't expected as far as tangible weather goes, next week will have a much different feel than this past week's record breaking warm temperatures. All good things must come to an end as the area returns to much more seasonable highs in the low 50s through the middle of the week. Temperatures do look to warm up some heading into next weekend with highs in the mid to upper 50s by Friday. Winds look to remain light through most of the week as well.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 648 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Some fog/stratus at APN/MBL to start the morning, but this is expected to burn off quickly. PLN also has MVFR cigs. Quiet for a good chunk of the day (VFR), but showers arrive late today into tonight from south to north. Cigs/vsbys will worsen, with IFR conditions expected tonight (especially late).

Easterly winds at around 10kt this afternoon and tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 341 AM EDT Sat Apr 10 2021

Weakening sw winds are in place, thanks to low pressure over northern Superior. As that low moves further away, another one organizes to our sw, reaching northern IL by late tonight. Winds will back to the e and ne late today and tonight, while increasing. For now have winds and waves staying just short of advisory levels, but will definitely be choppy out there by tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi35 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 49°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi55 min SW 1 G 2.9 48°F 1007 hPa47°F
TBIM4 25 mi55 min 6 G 6 44°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi31 minN 02.00 miFog/Mist44°F44°F100%1008.2 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi30 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy48°F45°F92%1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSE5E6S14
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SE12E7SE6SE7SE6S4E3S3S6S4SE6SE4S4S4Calm
1 day agoE5SE9E8SE9E9E11SE14SE12
G19
E11E10E7E8E6SE3SE5S5SE8SE11
G20
E7SE9E5CalmE3E5
2 days agoE3NE3E6E7E9E9SE8E11E13E7
G18
SE13SE7
G17
E7SE3E6SE8E4E6E5SE3E5E3CalmCalm

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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