Sunday, August9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Presque Isle Harbor, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 8:57PM Sunday August 9, 2020 7:26 AM EDT (11:26 UTC) Moonrise 10:48PMMoonset 11:23AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ348 Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Pt Mi Including Thunder Bay National Marine Sanctuary- 518 Am Edt Sun Aug 9 2020
Today..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ348 Expires:202008091730;;167261 FZUS53 KAPX 090918 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 518 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ348-091730-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Presque Isle Harbor, MI
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location: 45.32, -83.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 091029 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 629 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/Moderate. Thunderstorms, mainly this afternoon/evening, could have some hail and gusty winds. An isolated severe storm or two cannot be ruled out.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

High pressure was settling into much of the Atlantic states early this morning, while weak shortwave troughs/vorticity maxima are pushing into general increasing mid level heights across nrn Michigan. A larger scale upper trough was moving into the central provinces of Canada and the nrn Plains, with an associated cold front draped N-S through Ontario, back into the upper Mississippi valley and nrn Plains where it turns back into a warm front. SW/W low level winds were continuing to usher in warmer and more moist air, and when combined with steepening mid level lapse rates of greater than 7.0c/km, was resulting in increasing MUCAPES through the night. MUCAPES have grown to 1000-2000j/kg, resulting in an increasingly favorable atmosphere for showers and storms. There were still a few showers and storms ongoing south of M-72, along the lapse rate gradient, and within a zone of broad low to mid level theta-e advection. This convection was weakening with time however.

The lapse rather gradient presses NE through nrn lower Michigan this morning, while weak perturbations in the flow aloft and broad low to mid level warm advection regime persists. This will continue the threat of isolated showers and storms, but the focus really ought to turn to this afternoon. A weaker SW flow will lead to lake breezes across NE lower, while the atmosphere continues to grow more and more moist and unstable. Fcst soundings showing as much as 2000- 4000j/kg of MLCAPE by afternoon (greatest across NE lower). This is quite impressive, as is the 1000-1200j/kg of DCAPE, which is quite impressive for strong thunderstorm downdrafts. So the question is, will we get any thunderstorms? Well, we will have the NE lower lake breeze convergence, and fcst soundings show daytime heating and high low level dew points, leading to no cap to overcome. This alone may allow storms to fire off, and when there are other minor perturbations in the flow (many of which cannot be resolved in the varying data sets), gotta believe there is at least a decent chance. With that kind of instability and DCAPE, storms could actually fire off early this afternoon as the lake breezes moves inland. Growth could be very impressive, and strong to severe storms with hail and strong downdrafts/microbursts are in the picture. Not sure of the confidence in all of it coming together for the severe threat, since we remain in just a general thunderstorm threat. However, we must keep an eye on things, and at an earlier time than we would normally expect storm development.

While convection will wane through the evening (the threat does go into at least early this evening), our eyes we then have to be peeled on what coming in from upstream. The aforementioned larger scale upper troughing will have been pressing ESE, with initial shortwave troughing and stronger vorticity maxima working into the western Great Lakes by daybreak Monday. LLJ forcing, combined with upper divergence and DPVA is expected to drive an MCS or band of showers and storms into far NW lower and eastern upper late tonight into daybreak Monday. This will provide a marginal threat for severe storms, with the main threats being damaging winds.

A pretty active period of weather . potentially.

Highs today will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will largely be in the mid and upper 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

High impact weather potential: Thunderstorm chances continue Monday - Monday night, perhaps a few strong-severe along with locally heavy downpours.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Little change in overall large scale thinking through the forecast period with weak ridging Sunday giving way to lowering heights Monday as closed low pressure well to our north sags into the region. Several embedded mid-level shortwaves and attendant cold front will provide the focus for additional shower and storm development. Once the cold front clears the forecast area to the east Monday night, drier conditions and less- humid air is anticipated to be the rule Tuesday and beyond as high pressure settles atop the region.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Timing, coverage and intensity of showers and thunderstorms Monday-Monday night.

By Monday morning, latest trends the potential for some isolated to scattered shower/storm activity across portions of the forecast area, mainly west of I-75. More widespread activity off to our west and southwest. Occasional shower/storm chances continue area-wide throughout much of the day in advance of the aformentioned cold front in an increasingly unstable airmass characterized by MLCAPE values ranging from 1,500 - 3,000 J/kg. Bulk shear values AOB 30 kts suggests a minimal threat for organized severe weather; however, given strong surface heating, 6.5-7.5 C/km mid-level lapse rates and WBZ heights around 11 kft, wouldn't be surprised to see any longer- lived updrafts become capable of producing gusty downdraft winds and at least some small hail. Locally heavy rain threat also continues as PWs remain progged between 1.5-1.75+ inches. High temperatures Monday expected to range from near 80 across eastern upper and through the 80s to near 90 degrees over northern lower. Combined with dew points in the upper 60s-low 70s and it'll certainly feel warm and sticky out there.

Any lingering shower/storm threat Monday night will diminish from west to east as the cold front treks across the forecast area. Noticeably less humid air will follow for Tuesday, although afternoon high temperatures may not budge much from near 80 to the mid 80s across the area. Lots of sunshine anticipated as well, along with generally light west/northwest winds.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 338 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Surface high pressure is expected to dominate much of the extended forecast period underneath slowly building heights aloft. This should allow for above normal temperatures to continue, along with lots of sunshine/mainly clear skies for much of the time. Some uncertainties prevail late in the week as the envelope of solutions widens; however, gut feeling is to keep the forecast primarily dry right on through the start of next weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 626 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

High pressure will settle into the Atlantic states for today and Monday, while the pressure gradient loosens up today with lake breezes expected over NE lower. Isolated showers and rumbles of thunder are possible into this morning, which are then expected to turn to a decent chance for thunderstorms for APN this afternoon and early this evening. A severe storm or two cannot be ruled out with localized damaging winds and hail being the concerns. CIGS should primarily remain VFR, with just a small chance for some MVFR CIGS, mainly at PLN, for late tonight. VSBYS reductions would only come underneath any storms or heavier showers, as well as with potential shallow fog.

Winds will generally be out of the W/SW, with an afternoon SE lake breeze coming into APN. Lighter S/SW winds expected tonight, and a period of LLWS as winds increase just above the sfc.

MARINE. Issued at 338 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020

High pressure will settle into the Atlantic states for today and Monday, while the tighter pressure gradient loosens up today with lake breezes expected over NE lower, before tightening right back up again tonight. This is in advance of a cold front that crosses Monday afternoon into Monday night. SW winds are expected to hit advisory levels for a brief time overnight tonight, possibly into Monday morning, for most Lake Michigan nearshore waters. Also, isolated showers and a possible rumble of thunder into this morning, will turn to a chance for thunderstorms for much of the NE lower nearshore waters this afternoon and evening. A better shot at showers and storms arrives late Sunday night through Monday. Attm, no severe storms are anticipated, but an isolated strong thunderstorm will gusty winds and hail is not out of the question this afternoon.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Monday for LMZ341-342-344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 18 mi37 min WSW 2.9 G 2.9 68°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 18 mi57 min Calm G 1 68°F 60°F1015.2 hPa64°F
45162 26 mi47 min SSE 1.9 G 1.9 70°F 1 ft
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 35 mi37 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 67°F 66°F2 ft1016.1 hPa65°F
SRLM4 46 mi57 min NW 7 67°F 70°F65°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Alpena, Alpena County Regional Airport, MI17 mi33 minN 08.00 miA Few Clouds62°F61°F96%1016 hPa
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI18 mi32 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist62°F60°F93%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAPN

Wind History from APN (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalm3NW6CalmCalmCalmE5SE7E8E8SE9SE8E5SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmW4W5W85SW5CalmSE7E9E10E10E5E3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.