Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Martin Lake, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

A few showers linger mainly in the southern portions of Minnesota this morning as cloud cover has already begun to break apart in central Minnesota as the last remnant of our weather system move out of the region today. Latest surface analysis shows the low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes with weak northerly flow across the northern plains, coupled with the breakdown of the upper level low and northerly flow aloft to bring subsidence back to the area.
By the afternoon we should see clear skies throughout the area and good enough mixing to bring some lower dew points back to central Minnesota, which will mainly be a vehicle for temperatures to drop lower tonight resulting in a chance for patchy frost. We will have to wait and see how well we mix throughout the day, with the difference between dew points in central Minnesota in the mid as opposed to upper 30s likely being the difference between frost and no frost.

The next weather system to impact the central US will arrive Saturday into Sunday with global guidance continuing to favor southern Minnesota for the best chances for light rain showers, with a fairly sizable shift towards overall drier conditions compared to 24 hours ago. The main synoptic scale lift appears to generate via a mid level shortwave as the region gets split between an upper level low in eastern Ontario and a stalled trough over the eastern Rocky Mountains, with little support in the low levels nor via jet streak as the upper level jet moves through earlier than the shortwave based off the latest GFS. The GEFS ensemble shows less than 10 percent of membership having any precipitation for MSP, with around 20 to 30 percent showing up to a tenth of an inch in southern Minnesota along I-90 through Monday morning. Further chances for isolated showers are possible through the middle of the week as the upper level low stalls over Eastern Canada, tilting the flow upstream and allowing for further potential shortwave activity over the area. Right now, the best chance for a surface based system would remain too far south to give us a chance at seeing any sort of frontal boundary, which should keep the overall threat isolated at best.

A warming trend continues to be evident based off the return of subsidence and sunshine across the region towards the middle of the week, with highs in the 60s this weekend compared to mid to upper 70s by Wednesday and Thursday. We are not quite looking at 80s just yet, and dew points generally range within the upper 40s to low 50s among all the guidance, such that humidity will remain on the lower end. For those who dodge all of the rain chances coming up, it looks to be a pleasant week of weather with relatively light winds, warming temperatures, and plenty of sun.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu May 22 2025

For AXN, fog has managed to develop at the terminal under clearing skies. Added a TEMPO for LIFR conditions until 14Z when fog should burn off. Then, VFR conditions are expected the entire period area-wide as the low-level stratus deck has finally exited to our southeast. Cigs will continue to rise while clouds break apart this morning. Only a few high clouds should result by the end of the period. Northerly winds will increase to near 10 knots into this afternoon. Winds then slow to near or under 5 knots this evening and become variable to northeasterly.

KMSP...Northeast winds around 5 knots are expected after 08Z Friday.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind NE 5-10 kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind E 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.