Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waddington, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 612 PM EST Monday...Have lightly tweaked PoPs to increase chances in areas where snow is ongoing and expected to continue for a little bit, but overall we are looking at continued widespread snow showers. A couple convective snow showers are still possible, but the previously mentioned triple point is lifting north across the international border at the moment, and heaviest showers should follow it up. Otherwise, forecast is on track with some minor adjustments needed to boost dew points, though this will have minimal impact.

Previous discussion...Widespread snow showers are currently falling across the region associated with a passing Clipper. An interesting circulation has formed over Ontario just north of Lake Ontario, and it is passing to the northeast along the international border, bringing a few heavier snow showers.
However, none are close to snow squall criteria. It looks to be developing along the triple point of the original clipper. For the rest of the afternoon and evening, a couple heavier convective snow showers are possible, but the vast majority should be light to moderate. After the strongest synoptic forcing passes to the east this evening, the snow shower coverage will diminish. During the day tomorrow, westerly flow will help bring lake moisture off Lake Ontario and into northern New York, so snow showers should continue there. However, no organized banding features are expected so the snow will remain on the lighter side. Some snow showers should also continue along the northern Greens, but with relatively unblocked flow and westerly to southwesterly winds, accumulations will be minor. Accumulations will generally be up to around an inch in most places though parts of St. Lawrence County could see a couple inches due to lake effect and the far northern Greens near Jay could see a few upslope inches as well.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
As of 413 PM EST Monday...On the backside of the clipper, the upslope snow showers invigorate Tuesday night due to increased moisture and more favorable northwest flow. A saturated DGZ with some lift will allow for dendrite formation and high snow ratios are expected. The window of the heaviest snow only looks to be around 18 hours, occurring Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, so this will limit totals a bit. Overall, thinking 2-6 inches for the typical western slopes and upslope areas in the northern Greens and northern Adirondacks. Some higher totals are expected in the highest terrain. Flow begins unblocked but eventually becomes more blocked so some accumulations on the immediate eastern slopes are possible as well. Ridging will build into the region Wednesday night and eventually put an end to the upslope snow showers. However, they will gradually decline in coverage and intensity as the day goes on so any significant accumulations should be done by afternoon.
Temperatures during this period will gradually cool, and they will be a bit below average by Wednesday and Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 413 PM EST Monday...Thursday onward will feature changeable active weather, and variable temperatures with warm and cool periods. Thursday will start out with below normal temperatures and an upper level shortwave trough pushing through the area. Some scattered light snow showers are expected in Northern New York. Chances will dwindle as the feature pushes east across Vermont. Drier weather returns for Friday and Friday night with surface and upper level ridging building into the north country. A low pressure system will then track from the Great Lakes region well north of our area. Warm temperatures and gusty winds are expected on Saturday with increased gradient and warm southerly flow. Light snow mixing with rain is expected on Saturday, and will be pretty widespread. Sunday will be drier, then additional precipitation is expected headed into Monday with a low pressure system passing near the New England coast. Current model tracks do not look like big impacts for our area.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...Currently a mix of MVFR and VFR across our taf sites with vis ranging from 3-5SM in light snow and cigs between bkn-ovc 1800 to 5000 feet agl. Thinking snow showers will produce intervals of IFR vis at SLK/EFK thru 08z and have utilized tempo groups for this thinking. Otherwise, mostly a mix of MVFR/VFR anticipated at our other sites overnight into Tuesday morning. As better moisture arrives from west to east across our taf sites late Tues morning into the afternoon hours, expect MVFR/IFR vis to develop in light snow with greatest confidence of IFR at MSS/SLK/EFK and MPV between 18z and 00z on Tuesday. In addition, southwest winds will slowly shift to the west/northwest by Tues afternoon with localized gusts 20 to 25 knots. As winds shift to the northwest at BTV expect cigs to lower toward MVFR with some intervals of IFR vis in snow showers after 21z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: MVFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SN, Likely RA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for VTZ002-003-006-016>018.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 4 PM EST Wednesday for NYZ029>031.