Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waddington, NY

KEY MESSAGES
As of 725 AM EDT Saturday...

1. Mainly dry and warm weather will continue through the weekend as high pressure remains over the region.

2. A pattern change and upper troughing will bring increased chances of showers and thunderstorms on Monday and Monday night.

3. An unsettled weather pattern is anticipated this upcoming week with several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected.

DISCUSSION
As of 725 AM EDT Saturday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: High pressure is currently anchored over central New York early this morning and will keep our region dry and warm through at least Sunday. This will also mean light winds and cooler nights with valley fog possible. Temperatures are on their way down towards the mid 40s to near 60 F early this morning. After near- normal warmth yesterday, we're anticipating above-average highs of widespread lower and mid 80s to arrive this afternoon under light southerly flow aloft as high pressure shifts east and northeast.
Tonight (Saturday night), high pressure will continue to drift away from our area as a weak upper shortwave approaches. This will keep temperatures a little milder tonight with lows only falling into the 50s and lower 60s, around seasonable for this time of year. There could be some brief patchy fog in the typical spots of the Adirondacks, but generally we're heading into a pattern change towards the end of the weekend. Sunday will be our last day of mainly dry conditions with widespread 80s again. The odd shower or thunderstorm in the Adirondacks is not out of the question on Sunday, but overall low likelihood.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for the start of the work week under upper troughing. Diurnally driven terrain scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the day Monday, primarily in northern New York. Daytime precipitation chances run around 50-80% in northern New York, but only 10-45% across Vermont, lowest in the Connecticut River Valley.
Exact high temperatures may depend on where and when precipitation occurs, but looking like highs in the upper 70s and 80s are likely.
The ECMWF continues to depict the arrival of surface low pressure over the Great Lakes during this period, which if it occurs, could have some impact on Monday night precipitation, but the GFS continues to exclude it. At the moment, precipitation again looks most likely in northern New York, mainly St. Lawrence County, with 40-75% chance, then 20-40% elsewhere other than the Northeast Kingdom, which looks most likely to remain dry, only 5-20% chance precip. Total precipitation Monday and Monday night expected around 0.05-0.30 inches in the Champlain Valley and west, with only 0.00- 0.05" anticipated east of the Champlain Valley. As is typical when we have convective showers and storms, these amounts will vary depending on location and shower intensity, likely higher in any potential t-storm. Because of the showers and moisture around Monday night, lows will be mild in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Global guidance shows a large spread in potential solutions associated with development/magnitude of mid/upper lvl trof acrs the NE CONUS for this upcoming week. ECMWF/UKMET and ICON show a deepening and closing off 700-500mb circulation acrs the NE CONUS/Mid Atlantic States Tues/Weds time frame, while GFS/CMC are less robust with closing system off and more progressive with mid/upper lvl trof lifting acrs the NE CONUS. The ECMWF/UKMET and ICON solution would need to be watched closely for potential flooding, especially with slow moving showers/embedded thunder associated with being directly under the closed low pres. Given the large ridge/trof amplification expected acrs the CONUS this upcoming week, this solution has the potential to happen, as does a faster with minimal impact scenario advertised by the GFS/CMC. A couple factors could limit heavy rain potential, such as better instability is located to our south and closing mid/upper lvl circulation is associated with northern stream energy with pw values only around 1 STD above normal. We will continue to monitor later guidance packages and look for a trend in the potential outcomes. For now WPC has 60 to 90% Tues/Weds with values tapering off to 30-40% by late week. Highs generally at or slightly below normal, due to clouds/precip, but lows at or slightly above normal. Highs mainly 70s to near 80 and lows upper 50s to mid 60s for Tues thru Fri.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 12Z Sunday...A couple hours of IFR fog/br developed at SLK/MPV early this morning around sunrise, but has already dissipated. High pres will continue to provide our taf sites with VFR conditions today, along with south to southwest winds 4 to 8 knots. Thinking less fog/br tonight at SLK/MPV due to slightly stronger winds and the potential for developing mid/upper lvl clouds, especially over northern NY.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Monday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Tuesday: VFR. Definite SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA, Chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.