Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Waddington, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 407 AM EDT Friday...An upper level low centered over the Great Lakes will continue to meander eastward, with several associated frontal boundaries and shortwaves moving through the region, bringing daily chances for showers and thunderstorms both today and Saturday. Patchy fog has developed across parts of the region this morning, but should quickly dissipate after sunrise. Daytime highs will continue to be warm, with another day of upper 70s and low 80s expected across the region. By the afternoon, conditions look to become more favorable for convective development, with CAPE values in excess of 500 J/kg across most of the region. Looking at model soundings, heavy rainfall and some slower-moving storms look to be the main concern this afternoon. Shower activity will wane Friday night, although a few lingering showers may be possible. Overnight lows will continue to be on the mild and muggy side, only dropping into the mid 50s and 60s.

The showery and active pattern continues into Saturday with several rounds of showers and possible thunderstorms expected, with the first round of showers moving through in the early morning and then additional convection in the afternoon. There is still some uncertainty in regards to how Saturday plays out, especially given the multiple rounds of precipitation. The latest HRRR guidance suggests that cloud cover may linger throughout much of the day Saturday, which may limit any convection for Saturday afternoon. If enough clearing is able to take place by the early afternoon, there could be enough instability for a few stronger to locally severe thunderstorms to develop, with SPC maintaining a Marginal Risk across the region for Saturday. With plenty of moisture available, any storms that do develop will likely feature heavy rainfall.
Between both Friday and Saturday, rainfall amounts between 0.50 and 1.0 inches can be expected, with locally higher amounts possible within thunderstorms. WPC does have a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall across the region for both Friday and Saturday given the potential for heavy rainfall and slower storm motions, but there are no flood concerns at this time. Temperatures during the Saturday will continue to be on the warm side, generally in the 70s to near 80 degrees.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
As of 407 AM EDT Friday...The second half of the weekend will feature a drastic shift as an upper low pivots directly over our forecast area. Remnants of Saturday's showers and thunderstorms will quickly exit to the east Saturday night, but any break in the precipitation will be fairly short lived. The upper low will swing down along or just south of the international border late Saturday night through Sunday, and expect a resurgence of showers in response. Winds will turn to the west and eventually northwest as the low moves to our east, ushering in a much colder airmass. Highs on Sunday will likely only be in the mid 50s to low 60s, with perhaps some places locations in the southern Champlain Valley/CT River Valley nudging into the mid 60s. Showers will become focused in the northern mountains by Sunday afternoon. Winds will be a touch gusty, but not overly so with gusts generally topping out around 25 mph. Showers will wane Sunday night as we lose daytime heating, though still expect at least scattered precipitation overnight. Lows will mainly be in the 40s, though the Adirondacks could dip into the upper 30s by early Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 407 AM EDT Friday...The cool and showery weather will persist through at least Monday as we remain on the western periphery of the upper low. Highs on both Monday and Tuesday will be in the 50s, though some of the colder spots in the Adirondacks and east of the Green Mountains could well struggle to get out of the 40s, especially on Monday. The pattern becomes more uncertain thereafter, with guidance indicating a complex interplay between an upper shortwave digging into the Great Lakes/near Hudson Bay while another upper trough moving into the Midwest, perhaps phasing into a cutoff low somewhere over the eastern CONUS. The main theme is that shower chances will continue through much of the week, and temperatures will remain below normal.

AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Through 06Z SATURDAY...VFR conditions are currently prevailing across the region at this hour, with calm or light terrain- driven winds. Despite the VFR conditions, patchy mist and fog developing across the region will bring some reduced visibilities, which continue through about 12Z with conditions rapidly improving after sunrise. Given the patchiness of the fog and uncertainty in persistence, TEMPO groups were utilized in the forecast. Once the fog dissipates towards 12Z, VFR conditions should prevail once again. Shower activity will increase throughout the afternoon, with some possible embedded thunderstorms, with some heavier showers possibly bringing reduced flight conditions at times. Winds will generally be southerly between 5 and 10 knots.

Outlook...

Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.