Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Petoskey, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:48AMSunset 9:34PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:56 PM EDT (00:56 UTC) Moonrise 8:26PMMoonset 4:13AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 223 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202007041930;;313519 FZUS53 KAPX 041823 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 223 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-041930-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petoskey, MI
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location: 45.36, -85.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 042300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Sunday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal, although there's a low chance for isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon, mainly inland northern lower/eastern upper.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: High pressure centered to our northwest this morning has gradually made inroads towards lower Michigan this afternoon, which is expected to continue to be the case through tonight. In its wake, a weak back-door cold front is expected to gradually press through eastern upper Michigan late tonight before slowly making further southward progress as northwest flow aloft increases while we continue to lie on the edge of broad mid-upper level ridging draped across the central CONUS. This ridge axis gradually becomes displaced further east through the day Sunday, becoming centered overhead Sunday night into Monday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Isolated shower/storm chances, mainly Sunday afternoon.

Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through Sunday morning; however, chances aren't quite zero for the remainder of this afternoon as localized forcing continues to materialize in the presence of inland penetrating lake breezes. Subtly warmer mid- level temps should continue to result in slightly stronger afternoon capping preventing much in the way of shower/storm development. If we're to overcome this through the remainder of the afternoon, along the US-131 corridor from CAD to Kalkaska would seem to be the most likely place where low-level convergence in maximized. A few of this afternoon's hi-res CAMs continue to suggest a bit of this development, but with such little confidence and coverage if it does occur, opted to keep the dry forecast going.

Mainly clear skies anticipated this evening, including during any fireworks displays across the region. Temperatures during the 9-11 PM time frame dropping through the 70s area-wide before cooling further into the low-mid 60s for overnight lows. While much of the forecast is expected to remain under mainly clear skies overnight, the exception lies across far northern areas as the aforementioned back-door cold front edges toward the eastern UP. A bit of patchy stratus anticipated there with the potential for some marine contribution given a moistening boundary layer. A bit of patchy fog possible as well, and can't entirely rule out a few light showers and/or drizzle in spots.

Heading into Sunday, primary attention focuses on the potential for some afternoon isolated shower/storm development as lake breezes once again push inland in the presence of slightly better moisture fields and weaker capping aloft. While not overly high chances exist, expecting the best chances to be inland from the Great Lakes across northern lower and interior eastern upper. No severe wx expected with any of these storms as locally brief downpours and lightning at the main threats. Highs again ranging from the upper 80s to mid-90s area-wide . warmest across northeast lower, coolest right along the big lakes.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

. Warm week ahead with minimal rain chances .

High impact weather potential: Minimal. Maybe an isolated non-severe thunderstorm at times?

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Upper level pattern attempts to become a bit more progressive heading into next week as western trough gets punted across southern Canada and downstream trough kicks out into the North Atlantic. Persistent mid/upper level ridge centered across the upper Mississippi Valley and western Great Lakes folds across our area in the process, keeping the very warm conditions in place for the next several days. Elevated mid level heights and focus for best forcing/deep layer moisture convergence to remain well to our north through Monday keeps rain chances very limited . leaving more localized convergence (primarily lake breeze induced) to drive isolated shower and thunderstorm potential. Southern extent of that passing southern Canada wave "may" bring more bonafide shower chances as we head into Tuesday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends and addressing isolated shower/storm potential at times.

Details:

Addressing what is easily the most confident part of the forecast . its gonna remain very warm, with little change in overall low level thermal profiles supporting widespread highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s both Monday and Tuesday afternoons, with some areas across northeast lower Michigan no doubt making a run at the middle 90s. Addressing shower chances a much more formidable forecast challenge. Any showers that may develop Sunday afternoon will quickly fade in the evening with loss of diurnally-driven instability. Elevated mid level heights and dearth of any synoptic forcing once again leaves area of enhanced lake breeze induced convergence maxima to drive potential shower development Monday afternoon. Definitely not sold on this idea given those warm conditions aloft. Will maintain inherited dry forecast for now as this will be more of a near term forcast quandary. Perhaps some better shower and thunderstorm chances arrive Monday night into Tuesday with arrival of weak wave and a general decrease in mid level heights. Not gonna be a washout by any means, with most areas liking remaining dry right through this period.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorms possible at times?

Very warm conditions set to continue, with perhaps some subtle cooling occurring toward the weekend. Once again, just not overly confident on rain prospects, with a propensity of best forcing to remain well removed to our north. Increasing low level moisture may help the afternoon shower and thunderstorm cause (especially in those favored convergence areas of eastern upper and northeast lower Michigan), but given lack of overall forcing still believe shower/storm coverage will be limited at best, with most of the time and much of the area remaining dry.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Stagnant surface high pressure and pronounced upper level ridging will maintain VFR conditions at all Northern Lower Michigan TAF sites tonight thru Sunday night. The development of lake breeze convergence may kick off a few showers and thunderstorms across inland areas of Lower Michigan Sunday afternoon and evening . but virtually all of this convection should not impact our TAF sites closer to the lakeshores. Light/variable winds tonight will again lend to lake breeze development on Sunday.

MARINE. Issued at 156 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Light winds and minimal waves thru at least the end of the weekend, as high pressure to our nw moves over lower MI. Some marine fog/stratus remains possible up on Whitefish Bay.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . mb LONG TERM . mb AVIATION . MR MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi76 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 91°F 1016.3 hPa
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 33 mi68 min WNW 5.1 G 6 81°F 68°F1015.6 hPa59°F
45175 35 mi27 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 72°F1016 hPa69°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI7 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair83°F59°F46%1015.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi61 minN 310.00 miFair78°F62°F58%1016.3 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI19 mi62 minNW 410.00 miFair83°F55°F40%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE6N3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE3NE3E3E4E6E7E5E6NE4CalmSW5SW4NW6NW6N5N3
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalmSW5SW5SW3SW6SW5SW5SW5SW5SW4SE3S4SW3
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4W3SW5SW5SW6W7W8SW8SW5SW5SW4SW6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.