Thursday, July29, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Petoskey, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday July 29, 2021 6:10 PM EDT (22:10 UTC) Moonrise 11:15PMMoonset 11:24AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 309 Pm Edt Thu Jul 29 2021
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ342 Expires:202107300315;;655075 FZUS53 KAPX 291909 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 309 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ342-300315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Petoskey, MI
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location: 45.36, -85.01     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 291905 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 305 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

. Dry and seasonal tonight .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper level pattern remains remarkably persistent, with northern Michigan centered squarely between broad western ridging and northeast NOAM centered troughing. Deep northwest flow the result across the Great Lakes, helping drive last nights shower and storm producing system well to our east and south. Extensive area of Canadian originate high pressure building southeast into the region, as evident by slowly clearing skies and an increasingly dry airmass. Temperatures remain about on par for were they should be for this time of year, with readings ranging from the lower 70s to around 80.

High pressure will continue to build into our area tonight, slowly exiting off to the southeast Friday into Friday night.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Nothing significant for sure tonight . with main emphasis on temperature trends.

Details:

As mentioned above, high pressure will continue to build southeast into the area tonight, bringing dry weather and mostly clear skies along with it. Pressure gradient does not entirely relax, suggesting maintenance of at least some light northerly flow. This will prevent temperatures from falling too much. Still, would expect widespread lows in the lower to middle 50s, with some of our typical colder locations likely making a run into the upper 40s.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Sunday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

. More rain and storm potential Saturday .

High impact weather potential: Some storms possible Saturday

Pattern/Synopsis: The Great Lakes region remains in steady northwest flow to end the work week, with a 80-100 knot jet crossing overhead between western ridging and New England troughing. Troughing deepens across the Great Lakes heading through the weekend with shortwave energy sinking down through Ontario. At the surface high pressure slides through the upper Great Lakes through Friday, followed by a cold frontal passage late Saturday. This will lead to showers and storm chances that linger Saturday into very early Sunday.

Forecast/Details: Friday will be quiet and dry with light northerly winds and a few late morning/afternoon cumulus. Highs should top out a couple degrees either side of 70 for many areas. Synoptic moisture increases Friday night ahead of a system trekking through northern Ontario. Another weak wave should induce a secondary surface circulation which will cross Eastern Upper Saturday afternoon. We get into a pseudo warm sector through the day, and this combined with decent instability and moisture plus around 35 kts of bulk shear orientated perpendicular to the cold front should allow for some storms to pop Saturday afternoon. Some of these could become strong so it bears watching this potential the next couple days. Enough moisture and instability linger into the night and early Sunday to support showers. This will followed by increasing dry and clearing conditions later Sunday as high pressure moves into the upper Great Lakes. Highs through the weekend look to remain in the low to mid 70's.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal

Additional waves of energy rotate through broadscale troughing early next week, bringing more shower chances to the Great Lakes. The best chances look to be on Tuesday with another front swinging through the area. Guidance continues to hint at an upper level low becoming cut off across either the Lakes or the Ohio Valley in the mid week time frame. But run-to-run and intermodel consistency with this leaves a lot to be desired with a lot of uncertainty. As of now only have very low chances of precipitation. Highs should be increasing through the 70's to near 80 by the end of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 156 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Conditions have been slow to improve today as MVFR producing low clouds continue. Expect these low clouds to gradually erode from the north later this afternoon into this evening as dry air filters into the region. Expect skies to go clear to partly cloudy tonight, with just some scattered high based cumulus expected by later Friday morning. Gusty northwest winds gradually subside tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 304 PM EDT Thu Jul 29 2021

Gusty north to northwest winds will gradually subside tonight as high pressure further builds into the region. Northwest winds, at times gusty, continue through Friday. Current trends support winds and waves remaining just below advisory levels on Friday. Winds become southwest and remain a bit gusty Friday night and Saturday ahead of the next approaching cold front. This front will bring our next chance for more showers and a few thunderstorms, especially late Friday night into Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Friday for LHZ345-347>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EDT Friday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . STJ LONG TERM . STJ AVIATION . mb MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45022 5 mi31 min NNW 12 G 18 72°F 71°F2 ft1014.7 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 30 mi91 min NNW 19 G 22 77°F 1014.6 hPa
45194 33 mi71 min 73°F 71°F2 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 33 mi53 min NNW 11 G 15 76°F 72°F1011.5 hPa58°F
WSLM4 34 mi131 min NW 18 72°F 69°F1012.9 hPa (+0.8)60°F
45175 35 mi31 min NNW 18 G 21 75°F 74°F2 ft1013.2 hPa58°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Harbor Springs, Harbor Springs Airport, MI7 mi76 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miMostly Cloudy76°F63°F65%1012.9 hPa
Charlevoix, Charlevoix Municipal Airport, MI14 mi76 minWNW 16 G 2210.00 miFair74°F65°F75%1013.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI19 mi77 minNW 17 G 2710.00 miFair78°F62°F58%1012.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMGN

Wind History from MGN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmNE3E4CalmCalmCalmSW10W4CalmW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW7NW7N4NW4N4NW7NW12
G18
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1 day agoNW4SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W3W3SW4W5SW4SW4
2 days agoSW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE4CalmCalmW7NW6CalmSW4SW7W6W5W4W3

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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