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LMZ342 Norwood Mi To 5nm West Of Mackinac Bridge Including Little Traverse Bay- 241 Pm Est Tue Nov 28 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..Southwest wind up to 30 knots. Scattered snow showers early in the evening, then snow showers after midnight. Waves 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Chance of rain and snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet.
Wednesday night..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday..West wind 15 to 25 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 281939 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 239 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

NEAR TERM
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: First round of accumulating lake snow ends this evening, with the next round arriving later tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Mid level heights steadily on the rebound early this afternoon as core of trough axis pivots off to our northeast. Surface ridge building into the region on the heels of these mid level height rises. Attendant increasing subsidence, a steadily drying low level environment, and rapidly backing winds beginning to take their collective toll on what has been a pretty significant lake effect event. Still seeing some snow showers rotating off the big waters, but the downward trend in both organization and intensity is well displayed on local radars. A seasonably chilly day, with current readings only in the 20s.

Large scale features remain very progressive as we head through tonight, with ridging quickly moving off to the east as weak shortwave trough and its attendant surface reflection race into the area by early Wednesday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

More snow concerns...specifically centering on next round of lake enhanced snow later tonight.

Details:

Expect ongoing lake snows to continue to diminish the remainder of this afternoon as ridging build further overhead. However, break in the snows will be short-lived as moisture and isentropic upglide tied to that next wave arrive quickly by later this evening. On the synoptic scale, system itself is pretty limited, with less than stellar moisture profiles through the vertical and weak and somewhat disjointed deep layer forcing. However, the over-water thermal gradient remains more than robust enough to continue lake moisture contribution. While definitely rather shallow, lake-induced convective boundary layer more than deep enough to support the continuation of lake snows, with seeder-feeder processes only enhancing snowfall production. Flow quickly backs to southwest in response to this wave, targeting most organized and persistent snow showers within the Lake Michigan coastal counties. Of particularly concern is Emmet County where low level convergence and longest fetch length are both maximized. Could easily see a good 3 to 5 inches of snow by Wednesday morning in this area, with at least a few inches elsewhere in those areas bordering Lake Michigan. Snow will spread across the remainder of the area overnight, but accumulations will significantly be reduced away from those favored lake areas.

SHORT TERM
(Wednesday through Friday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Snow Diminishing

High Impact Weather...Additional accumulating snow near Lake Michigan Wednesday morning.

Primary Forecast Concerns...Pops and snow accumulations.

Synoptic precipitation associated with the Alberta Clipper lingers into Wednesday morning before departing off to our east. Could still see another inch or so of snow accumulation, primarily limited to near the Lake Michigan shoreline counties. Drier air in combination with decreasing over lake instability should pretty much end activity as we progress through the afternoon. Quiet weather for a change is expected Wednesday night. A weak, moisture starved cold front may produce a few light rain or snow showers during the day Thursday. Highs Wednesday in the mid to upper 30s. Lows Wednesday in the mid 20s to around 30. Highs in the milder upper 30s to mid 40s Thursday.

LONG TERM
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Milder with Occasional Precipitation Chances

Various mainly weak waves moving through the flow will bring occasional chances for precipitation. Although it doesn't look that cold per se, it should be just cold enough for the precipitation to fall as mostly snow showers. High temperatures will be in the mid 30s to near 40 with lows mainly in the 20s (with some teens Friday night).

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1218 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Improving conditions as we head through the remainder of this afternoon and evening. Next round of lake enhanced snow arrives later tonight, gradually ending as we head through Wednesday morning. This will likely result in more MVFR to IFR conditions, with the worst conditions expected at those tafs locations near Lake Michigan. Likely to again see some mostly minor snow accumulations, although could be looking at several inches near KPLN. Gusty winds will result in some patchy blowing and drifting snow at times.

MARINE
Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Nov 28 2023

Occassionally gusty winds will continue across most nearshore waters through for the next few days, resulting in periods of small craft advisory conditions.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...NONE.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LHZ345>349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321-322.

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