Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chateaugay, NY
December 3, 2023 10:55 PM EST (03:55 UTC)
Sunrise 7:15AM Sunset 4:15PM Moonrise 11:14PM Moonset 1:14PM
SLZ024 Expires:202312040415;;851727 Fzus61 Kbuf 032245 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 545 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
slz022-024-040415- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 545 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely early, then snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers late in the morning. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Cloudy.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers.
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 545 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
slz022-024-040415- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 545 pm est Sun dec 3 2023
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Rain and snow showers.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow and rain showers likely early, then snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers late in the morning. A chance of rain and snow showers in the afternoon.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday..Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Cloudy.
Wednesday..North winds 10 knots or less becoming west. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of snow showers.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers.
SLZ005
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 040236 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 936 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Widespread precipitation will continue through Monday, falling mainly as high elevation snow and low elevation mix of rain and snow. Several inches of heavy, wet snow are expected for much of the region except for the lowest valleys. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 931 PM EST Sunday...Rain is slowly changing over to snow across the region as the lack of cold air aloft right now has limited cooling. Most places remain in the 34 to 37 degree range except across northern New York and northern Vermont where temps have dropped to near 30 degrees. There is still a lot of uncertainty to snow totals at lower elevations as wet bulb temperatures are currently 35-36 degrees which isn't very conducive for snow. The 00Z high-res guidance that has come in thus far has trended downward yet again with snow accumulations in the Champlain Valley and line up well with the snow totals from the previous update. Outside of the Champlain Valley, snow totals remain on track for widespread 4-8" with local 10-12". We actually just received some calls from spotters as I was writing this and can report we now have 3 inches of new snow at Marshfield in VT and 4.5 inches at Dannemora in NY.
One thing we are watching is an impressive band of precipitation tied to a frontal boundary across central NY. This is moving at around 30 mph and has the North Country in it's sight. We expect this band to move into St. Lawrence and Essex Counties in NY around 10:30 which will intensity the rate of precipitation.
This should allow for dynamic cooling to occur and will change places that are still seeing rain over to snow and should continue through 8-9Z before tapering off. This should be the catalyst for the majority of snow totals so stay tuned for a burst of snow in a few hours.
Previous Discussion...No significant changes made with this forecast package, and all winter weather headlines remain in place. Still anticipate heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches across much of the region, with upwards of 10 inches possible above 1500 ft. Travel will likely become hazardous this evening and overnight, affecting the Monday morning commute.
Given the heavy, wet nature of the snow, downed branches and trees will be possible, resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.
Low pressure currently centered over western NY will continue to slowly trek northeast tonight and Monday, moving through the St Lawrence Valley and then along or just to the south of the international border. Precipitation has already spread over our region this afternoon, falling mainly as snow AOA roughly 1100 ft, and rain below that. There's just enough of a warm nose over northern NY that pockets of freezing rain have been reported, mainly in the northern St Lawrence Valley and portions of eastern Clinton County. While some mixed precip will be possible through this evening, overall expect the warm nose to erode, allowing precipitation to change over to just rain or snow based on surface temperatures. There's a dry slot pushing into central NY which will spread eastward through the evening as well, which may help to briefly lessen precipitation rates. However, expect precip to fill back in as the low deepens and draws closer, and this will spread from west to east later this evening and overnight. Temperatures will remain near to just above freezing as cooling will be minimal, but anticipate all but the lowest elevations will change over to all snow for at least a few hours overnight. Steady perception will continue overnight, possibly heavy at times with snowfall rates approaching 1 in/hr, especially over the higher terrain.
Precipitation will then begin to taper to showers from southwest to northeast Monday morning as drier air works in ahead of the low which will be moving into northern NY at that time. Snowfall amounts by mid/late Monday morning will range from 3 to 8 inches over the Adirondacks and along/east of the Greens, with around 10 inches possible above 1500 ft. Lower elevations meanwhile will receive 1-3 inches.
For Monday afternoon and night...the low moves eastward through northern areas, with winds turning to the west behind it. Meanwhile, the upper shortwave trough will slide directly overhead. Hence, expect precipitation to redevelop by mid afternoon, becoming more focused along the western slopes of the northern Greens/Adirondacks.
Valley locations will warm into the upper 30s, allowing any snow to mix with and/or change back to rain, but the mountains will remain cold enough for primarily snow. Showers will persist overnight, winding down as we head toward daybreak. Additional snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible above 1000 ft, with little/no additional accumulation elsewhere. Temperatures will cool down below freezing Monday night, generally in the mid to upper 20s. Any standing water on roadways could freeze, especially on elevated or untreated surfaces.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 253 PM EST Sunday...While the region will remain under broad cyclonic flow dominated by a mid/upper level trough, conditions generally trend dry as mid level heights actually rise across the forecast area on Tuesday in response to the trough digging into the Ohio Valley. Snow showers will be most prevalent across the higher terrain Tuesday morning with light accumulations likely, but thereafter precipitation will be more isolated in nature, even on Wednesday when the base of the trough swings through. Temps through the period will be significantly below normal with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to low 30s, and colder Wednesday in the mid/upper 20s.
Normal for the first week of December is the mid/upper 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Still not seeing anything overly impactful for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A brief ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region for Wednesday night before a weak shortwave may bring some light snow showers to portions of western New York on Thursday. The next best chance for precipitation comes as a weak clipper-type system tracks through southern Ontario/Quebec Friday into Saturday, but trends in the guidance is for the system to track farther north towards Jame Bay, potentially limiting the impacts of the attending cold fronts passage. If the deterministic ECMWF or GDPS are to be believed though with a much deeper trough and subtropical jet connection, a much bigger storm could be brewing somewhere in the Northeast next Sunday. Not much consensus noted by the respective ensembles so will keep the forecast in the chance category for now. Temps remain cool through Thursday, but trend towards warmer weather Friday into the weekend with 40s and potentially 50s possible.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently a wide variety of flight conditions across the region as precipitation continues to move through the region, although the general trend overnight will be towards IFR as ceilings gradually lower toward 1000 ft AGL.
Visibilities will more variable due to different precipitation types. Valley locations, like KBTV and KRUT, will trend closer to 3-5SM with rain or rain/snow mix, while mountain sites like KEFK and KMPV will trend closer to 1-2SM with snow. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow are possible overnight, which may bring LIFR visibilities. After 13Z, widespread precipitation transitions to showers, which may lead to improved conditions, particularly in the valleys where any snow overnight transitions to rain. Winds variable early in the period, trending southeast by the morning, with speeds mainly 5-10 kt. Some higher gusts possible at KMSS and KRUT.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ006>008- 010-016>021.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ003-004.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ026-027- 030-034.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ031.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 936 PM EST Sun Dec 3 2023
SYNOPSIS
Widespread precipitation will continue through Monday, falling mainly as high elevation snow and low elevation mix of rain and snow. Several inches of heavy, wet snow are expected for much of the region except for the lowest valleys. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As of 931 PM EST Sunday...Rain is slowly changing over to snow across the region as the lack of cold air aloft right now has limited cooling. Most places remain in the 34 to 37 degree range except across northern New York and northern Vermont where temps have dropped to near 30 degrees. There is still a lot of uncertainty to snow totals at lower elevations as wet bulb temperatures are currently 35-36 degrees which isn't very conducive for snow. The 00Z high-res guidance that has come in thus far has trended downward yet again with snow accumulations in the Champlain Valley and line up well with the snow totals from the previous update. Outside of the Champlain Valley, snow totals remain on track for widespread 4-8" with local 10-12". We actually just received some calls from spotters as I was writing this and can report we now have 3 inches of new snow at Marshfield in VT and 4.5 inches at Dannemora in NY.
One thing we are watching is an impressive band of precipitation tied to a frontal boundary across central NY. This is moving at around 30 mph and has the North Country in it's sight. We expect this band to move into St. Lawrence and Essex Counties in NY around 10:30 which will intensity the rate of precipitation.
This should allow for dynamic cooling to occur and will change places that are still seeing rain over to snow and should continue through 8-9Z before tapering off. This should be the catalyst for the majority of snow totals so stay tuned for a burst of snow in a few hours.
Previous Discussion...No significant changes made with this forecast package, and all winter weather headlines remain in place. Still anticipate heavy, wet snow accumulations of 3 to 8 inches across much of the region, with upwards of 10 inches possible above 1500 ft. Travel will likely become hazardous this evening and overnight, affecting the Monday morning commute.
Given the heavy, wet nature of the snow, downed branches and trees will be possible, resulting in isolated to scattered power outages.
Low pressure currently centered over western NY will continue to slowly trek northeast tonight and Monday, moving through the St Lawrence Valley and then along or just to the south of the international border. Precipitation has already spread over our region this afternoon, falling mainly as snow AOA roughly 1100 ft, and rain below that. There's just enough of a warm nose over northern NY that pockets of freezing rain have been reported, mainly in the northern St Lawrence Valley and portions of eastern Clinton County. While some mixed precip will be possible through this evening, overall expect the warm nose to erode, allowing precipitation to change over to just rain or snow based on surface temperatures. There's a dry slot pushing into central NY which will spread eastward through the evening as well, which may help to briefly lessen precipitation rates. However, expect precip to fill back in as the low deepens and draws closer, and this will spread from west to east later this evening and overnight. Temperatures will remain near to just above freezing as cooling will be minimal, but anticipate all but the lowest elevations will change over to all snow for at least a few hours overnight. Steady perception will continue overnight, possibly heavy at times with snowfall rates approaching 1 in/hr, especially over the higher terrain.
Precipitation will then begin to taper to showers from southwest to northeast Monday morning as drier air works in ahead of the low which will be moving into northern NY at that time. Snowfall amounts by mid/late Monday morning will range from 3 to 8 inches over the Adirondacks and along/east of the Greens, with around 10 inches possible above 1500 ft. Lower elevations meanwhile will receive 1-3 inches.
For Monday afternoon and night...the low moves eastward through northern areas, with winds turning to the west behind it. Meanwhile, the upper shortwave trough will slide directly overhead. Hence, expect precipitation to redevelop by mid afternoon, becoming more focused along the western slopes of the northern Greens/Adirondacks.
Valley locations will warm into the upper 30s, allowing any snow to mix with and/or change back to rain, but the mountains will remain cold enough for primarily snow. Showers will persist overnight, winding down as we head toward daybreak. Additional snow amounts of 1 to 3 inches will be possible above 1000 ft, with little/no additional accumulation elsewhere. Temperatures will cool down below freezing Monday night, generally in the mid to upper 20s. Any standing water on roadways could freeze, especially on elevated or untreated surfaces.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 253 PM EST Sunday...While the region will remain under broad cyclonic flow dominated by a mid/upper level trough, conditions generally trend dry as mid level heights actually rise across the forecast area on Tuesday in response to the trough digging into the Ohio Valley. Snow showers will be most prevalent across the higher terrain Tuesday morning with light accumulations likely, but thereafter precipitation will be more isolated in nature, even on Wednesday when the base of the trough swings through. Temps through the period will be significantly below normal with highs Tuesday in the upper 20s to low 30s, and colder Wednesday in the mid/upper 20s.
Normal for the first week of December is the mid/upper 30s.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 253 PM EST Sunday...Still not seeing anything overly impactful for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. A brief ridge of surface high pressure builds into the region for Wednesday night before a weak shortwave may bring some light snow showers to portions of western New York on Thursday. The next best chance for precipitation comes as a weak clipper-type system tracks through southern Ontario/Quebec Friday into Saturday, but trends in the guidance is for the system to track farther north towards Jame Bay, potentially limiting the impacts of the attending cold fronts passage. If the deterministic ECMWF or GDPS are to be believed though with a much deeper trough and subtropical jet connection, a much bigger storm could be brewing somewhere in the Northeast next Sunday. Not much consensus noted by the respective ensembles so will keep the forecast in the chance category for now. Temps remain cool through Thursday, but trend towards warmer weather Friday into the weekend with 40s and potentially 50s possible.
AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Through 00Z Tuesday...Currently a wide variety of flight conditions across the region as precipitation continues to move through the region, although the general trend overnight will be towards IFR as ceilings gradually lower toward 1000 ft AGL.
Visibilities will more variable due to different precipitation types. Valley locations, like KBTV and KRUT, will trend closer to 3-5SM with rain or rain/snow mix, while mountain sites like KEFK and KMPV will trend closer to 1-2SM with snow. Brief periods of moderate to heavy snow are possible overnight, which may bring LIFR visibilities. After 13Z, widespread precipitation transitions to showers, which may lead to improved conditions, particularly in the valleys where any snow overnight transitions to rain. Winds variable early in the period, trending southeast by the morning, with speeds mainly 5-10 kt. Some higher gusts possible at KMSS and KRUT.
Outlook...
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance SHSN.
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ006>008- 010-016>021.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for VTZ003-004.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ026-027- 030-034.
Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NYZ031.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Wind History from FSO
(wind in knots)Sorel
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EST 0.98 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EST 1.01 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST 0.98 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST 0.98 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:08 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:35 AM EST 0.98 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:16 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM EST 1.01 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:13 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 04:05 PM EST 0.98 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 05:07 PM EST 0.98 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:08 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 1 |
| 3 am |
| 1 |
| 4 am |
| 1 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1 |
| 5 pm |
| 1 |
| 6 pm |
| 1 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1 |
Islets Perces
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST 0.70 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EST 0.73 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:12 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:47 PM EST 0.71 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EST 0.72 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:07 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:37 AM EST 0.70 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:15 AM EST Sunrise
Sun -- 09:28 AM EST 0.73 meters High Tide
Sun -- 12:12 PM EST Moonset
Sun -- 03:47 PM EST 0.71 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST Sunset
Sun -- 08:37 PM EST 0.72 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:07 PM EST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.7 |
Burlington, VT,
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