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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chateaugay, NY

June 25, 2024 12:02 PM EDT (16:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:06 AM   Sunset 8:49 PM
Moonrise 11:49 PM   Moonset 8:52 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:202406250315;;597812 Fzus61 Kbuf 242028 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 428 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024
slz022-024-250315- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 428 pm edt Mon jun 24 2024

Tonight - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. Mainly clear.

Tuesday - Southwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly Sunny through early afternoon, then becoming partly Sunny.

Tuesday night - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely.

Wednesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.

Wednesday night - West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Showers likely.

Thursday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of showers during the day.

Friday - Light and variable winds becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

SLZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chateaugay, NY
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Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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657 FXUS61 KBTV 251424 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1024 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Sunny skies will promote seasonably warm temperatures today after a cool start. A cold front approaching from the west will spark scattered showers tonight. Following a period of dry conditions tomorrow, a potent trough will provide forcing for numerous showers overnight into Thursday morning. Chilly high pressure will settle in by Thursday night, then another frontal system will support the return of active weather on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1019 AM EDT Tuesday...No real changes necessary with this update. There`s a thin veil of high clouds across otherwise clear skies this morning, and we are still expecting temperatures to rise into the 80s for most. Previous discussion below:

Previous Discussion...
To start the day, fog is the main story. River valley fog gradually expanded overnight throughout all of the typical spots, particularly east of the Green Mountains, despite quite a bit of northerly flow aloft. Given the strong subsidence in the wake of the trough that moved through the region yesterday, this fog is not surprising, but it has been poorly modeled with a tricky scenario featuring very shallow surface inversions.
Gradient flow between low pressure to our east and high pressure to our southwest is generally out of the west, but the terrain is helping it become south or southwesterly in the St. Lawrence and Champlain valleys and limiting fog potential in these areas.
Winds just above the surface are mainly 15 MPH or greater even where fog has developed, which will help the fog dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise.

Then the story becomes pleasantly warm conditions. A dry air mass will help temperatures rise quickly with sunny skies.
Forecast soundings show afternoon mixing above 800 millibars, and have blended in some bias-corrected model output statistics for the highs to nudge them up a bit in many locations.
Generally looking at highs in the 80s for most spots with low humidity, so it should be a lovely day. Precipitation chances are nil through late afternoon.

Tonight another strong low level jet, peaking at about 50 knots, will make its way into the region and shower chances quickly increase from west to east, especially towards midnight. Think most locations will stay dry as coverage will be limited by relatively weak forcing. A kink in the upper level flow will ride eastward as mid level flow turns southwesterly and surface pressure falls ahead of a weak cold front. This system does not have much moisture return with a lack of deep southerly flow, and so between that and the non-existent surface based instability in place ahead of the front, the only potential for thunderstorms is if there is organized convection upstream that can hold together as it rips eastward. If so, showers would be capable of gusty winds, with the greatest potential in our western areas.

The main impact of this system may instead be providing another period of breezy conditions. Uniform westerly flow looks to set up behind this front under a weak cold air advection pattern, which will allow for gusts of 25 to 30 MPH across the Adirondacks along with central and eastern Vermont. Another period of sunny skies will follow the frontal passage, then clouds will rapidly increase late in the day from the west as a much more vigorous trough approaches to bring rain. The chances of rain through Wednesday evening begin to ramp up primarily in northern New York, although it is hard to be more specific yet with uncertainty on the position of the boundary that showers may focus on before showers overspread the area Wednesday night.
Temperatures on Wednesday should be a bit cooler than today, but 850 millibar temperatures on the cool side of the front aren`t much colder. Assuming there is abundant sunshine through at least the first part of the day, highs should warm into the mid 70s to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...A period of rain showers with embedded heavier downpours is likely Weds night into Thurs associated with mid/upper lvl trof and potent s/w energy. The best dynamics look to arrive overnight, when instability is minimal, which should limit rainfall rates and associated flash flooding threat. Best combination of lift and moisture with pw values btwn 1.0 and 1.50" wl be acrs central/southern VT on Weds night. Have pops in the likely to cat range (60-80%) for now, which wl increase as confidence increases on exact placement and timing of heaviest QPF.
Precip looks to range btwn 0.25 and 0.75 with some localized heavier amounts possible over southern VT zones. Temps with clouds and precip wl be in the mid 50s to lower 60s on Weds night. Initial s/w energy departs our eastern cwa by 15z, however secondary energy in the northern stream jet approaching our SLV region by 18z. Moisture and instability is limited, but dynamics look good for the potential of a few additional showers. Areal coverage wl be limited by the lack of deep layer moisture on Thurs aftn. Highest schc/chc (15-30%)
wl be acrs northern VT. Progged 925mb temps btwn 14-16C support highs mid 70s to near 80F on Thurs. Sfc high pres builds directly overhead on Thurs night into Friday morning. MEXSLK has a cool 35F (a sign the turn has occurred), but feel boundary layer moisture wl promote fog development and limit temps from completely bottoming out. For now have lows upper 30s to upper 40s with patchy areas of fog likely.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 332 AM EDT Tuesday...Friday wl be a classic North Country Chamber of Commerce type summer day with mostly sunny skies, comfortable humidity values, and temps close to normal for late June with highs mostly in the 70s. Next mid/upper lvl trof impacts our cwa Sat into Sunday with another round of unsettled wx likely. Once again system looks to impact us in fragments, resulting in several rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms over the upcoming weekend. First feature is warm frnt on Sat morning with weak embedded vort, could produce a few light showers over northern NY.
Next piece of energy is the pre-frontal trof and associated elongated vorticity that arrives late Sat aftn/evening, while the actual sfc cold frnt impacts our cwa toward 12z Sunday. This piece meal concept to sfc and upper air features makes timing precip chances over the weekend very challenging. Crnt guidances suggests highest potential btwn 18z Saturday and 06z Sunday, but this entire time period wl not be a washout. Crntly soundings show limited instability with moist adiabatic profiles and warm cloud depths, as pw values surge btwn 2.0 and 2.25 inches on Sat. In addition, strong llvl wind profiles develop with progged 850mb winds of 45 to 50 knots ahead of pre-frontal trof feature, so expect localized gusts 25 to 35 mph in SLV and CPV on Sat aftn before precip arrives. As always if more sfc heating occurs, given our strong wind profiles and dynamics, the potential for a few stronger storms wl need to be watched. In addition, given the recent rainfall, there wl be a non zero threat for flash flooding, especially given the very high pw values. As time frame becomes sampled by high res CAM output, the confidence in timing and placement of heaviest qpf footprints wl increase. System slowly clears our cwa by Sunday aftn with improving conditions and drier air for early next week. Highs generally near normal for the weekend into early next week , but overnight lows much above normal, especially on Sat night with southerly winds and increasing dwpts.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 12z Wednesday...Lingering fog is noted at the EFK airfield and vicinity, which should dissipate by 13Z. Otherwise, quiet VFR conditions are in place and expected to continue. Some high clouds are possible later in the day, with a low chance of lowering to MVFR conditions with any showers that move across a TAF site late tonight. These showers are expected to be on the lighter side with limited coverage, with VCSH indicated at northern and western terminals.

Surface winds will mainly be in the 6 to 12 knot range during the day ahead of an approaching low pressure system. These winds will largely be southwesterly across much of northern New York, southerly in the Champlain Valley, westerly at RUT and MPV, and northwesterly at Newport. Winds will trend southerly across the region after 00Z, with some westerly LLWS expected for a few to several hours at most TAF sites from 02Z to 08Z.

Outlook...

Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Isolated TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Tide / Current for Sorel, Quebec
   
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Sorel
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Tue -- 02:15 AM EDT     0.85 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:00 AM EDT     0.86 meters High Tide
Tue -- 08:46 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 01:10 PM EDT     0.84 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 08:36 PM EDT     0.88 meters High Tide
Tue -- 08:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
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Tide / Current for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Tue -- 03:33 AM EDT     0.72 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 05:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:49 AM EDT     0.73 meters High Tide
Tue -- 08:45 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 02:22 PM EDT     0.69 meters Low Tide
Tue -- 08:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:54 PM EDT     0.73 meters High Tide
Tue -- 11:47 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Burlington, VT,




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