Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Richford, VT
October 4, 2023 11:11 PM EDT (03:11 UTC)
Sunrise 6:52AM Sunset 6:28PM Moonrise 9:23PM Moonset 1:20PM
Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 050216 AFDBTV
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1016 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week with potential for exceeding daily high temperature records again on Thursday. Precipitation chances increase late Friday through the weekend with a strong cold front bringing widespread rain. Unsettled weather and shower chances continue as temperatures trend much cooler heading into next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 1013 PM EDT Wednesday...After record high temperatures today, temps are falling rather quickly this evening and in some places have dropped below anticipated lows. So I have lowered overnight lows by 2 to 4 degrees, especially SLV and northern Dacks, but feel values should level off toward midnight, as high clouds approach and gradient continues to increase. Lows generally near 50F SLK/NEK to near 60F CPV/SLV. Rest of fcst in great shape with patchy fog developing in the CT River Valley as we write, with VSF reporting 2 1/2SM sct002 in BR.
Previous discussion below: Temperatures this afternoon have reached the lower to mid 80s across the region, and we still have a few hours of warming to go. Perfectly sunny skies are in place and winds are out of the south. Dry tranquil weather continues through this afternoon and into the overnight. Surface and high pressure ridges remain in place, and dry air remains. Anticipate another mild overnight period, with some fog development in the typically fog prone spots, especially the valleys of Central and Eastern Vermont.
Minimum temperatures will be closer to our normal high temperatures for this time of year. Our lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be another warm and quiet day as frontal system to impact the region this weekend will be very slowly approaching from the west. Southerly flow will become brisk ahead of the front's approach, and though we'll potentially have some more clouds around on Thursday, temperatures will still reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Surface and upper level ridges move east of our region, and aforementioned front slowly approaches our area. Will mainly just see an increase in clouds Thursday night, with precipitation holding off till later Friday. Minimum temperatures on Thursday night will not be quite as mild as tonight, but still ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fog formation should not be as extensive, since we'll have an increase in clouds and southerly flow.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...On Friday, a sharp frontal boundary will begin to progress east across the St. Lawrence River as weak, broad low pressure moves east of James Bay in Canada. Increasingly breezy conditions are expected as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the frontal feature with south to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting 25 to perhaps even 30 mph.
Greater cloud cover and the southeasterly component will yield above normal, but cooler conditions, with high temperatures climbing into the 70s. Rain is not expected until late in the day, perhaps even into the overnight hours. The front will stall, or may even shift back west as what is presently Tropical Storm Philippe increases southeast flow and has the effect of sharpening the mid- level ridge axis over coastal New England.
Increasing Atlantic moisture ahead of TS Philippe will bring scattered to numerous showers Friday night into Saturday. It will be a fine axis of mainly moderate rain as PWATs gradually increase towards 1.25-1.4", about 175 percent of normal.
However, any moisture will also contend with dry air associated with the persistent ridge, and most deep vertical motion appears to take place into Saturday. So the main thing to watch will be where these features line up and where the front stalls before retrograding.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...On Saturday into Sunday, an upper trough across the Great Lakes is expected to become negatively tilted and phase with what is presently TS Philippe. Where the upper trough is, how quickly it closes into an upper low, and then phases with TS Philippe will impact where an axis of moderate to heavy rain will set up Saturday into Saturday night.
The cold front will begin to swing east during the day as moisture from TS Philippe overrides the boundary. PWATs remain between 175 percent of normal with favorable jet dynamics and a sharp, slow moving boundary. In terms of instability, lapse rates appear neutrally stable. Additionally, there is some evidence of dry air intrusion within the upper low bring PWATs below 1" fairly quickly on Saturday, with the time window of anomalous PWATs somewhat limited. The interaction will be complex, and there are a number of signals that do not perfectly line up for heavy rainfall, but there are at least signals for sustained light to moderate rain with the slow, but strong frontal boundary compensated with tropical moisture.
Probabilistic guidance continues to suggest 1.50"-2.50" between Friday night and Saturday night is reasonable, but the potential for locally higher totals remains possible depending on TS Philippe's track and interaction. Additional details are noted in the hydro section below.
In terms of rest of the forecast, the cold front will bring much colder conditions, with 60s on Saturday, followed by high temperatures in the 50s, perhaps not even reaching 50 in the Adirondacks of New York. Summits will be flirting with the freezing mark while moisture wraps around the upper low.
Synoptic models forecast 850hPa temperatures reaching below zero, and a handful suggest 925hPa could get close. It appears areas above 3000 ft agl will be in for their first snow. The rest of the region will observe rain showers as the upper low lingers across the area with embedded shortwave troughs and surface boundaries pass through the region, leading to a showery and cool period for the new week with slow, but steady warming back towards normal values.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 6 hours, with just a small potential for IFR in Fog/Br at MPV around sunrise on Thursday. The combination of increasing mid lvl clouds and southerly gradient should limit fog development overnight, with most sites remaining VFR. Soundings show the potential for fog/upslope stratus is possible at MPV btwn 09z-12z, so have tempo IFR cigs and MVFR vis for now.
Otherwise, soundings showing as sfc heating develops on Thurs morning, mixing improves and localized gusts 10 to 20 knots will be possible, especially at MSS/SLK/BTV and EFK.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
An extended period of light to moderate rain is expected, with an interval of locally heavy rain associated with a frontal boundary interacting with moisture from TS Philippe. Rain will begin Friday afternoon across northern New York as a frontal boundary stalls across the area and perhaps shifts back to the west. From this, 0.25- 1.00" of precipitation will be possible from the Adirondacks westward, with little rain across the Champlain Valley into eastern Vermont.
By Saturday, Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to transition to post-tropical as it approaches the New England Coastline, and the frontal boundary is expected to move again to the east.
Light to moderate rain will blossom across the area, with a narrow axis of heavier rain at the intersection of the frontal boundary and moisture from Philippe. A high degree of uncertainty remains on the exact track of Philippe and how quickly east the frontal boundary progresses. However, probabilistic guidance suggests an addition 1 to 2" of rain is likely, mainly over Vermont, with 0.25"-0.50" across northern New York.
Combined with Friday afternoon and overnight, this suggests around 1.50-2.50" is likely in 36 to 48 hours across Vermont and northern New York. River forecasts do not encompass the whole event. With recent dry weather, there has not been a primer to increase flood potential, with streamflows for several New York rivers even running below normal. Reasonable worst case scenarios suggest some potential for river flooding, but forecast confidence is currently not high enough to do more than highlight that the potential is present. Locally higher rainfall totals are likely within the strip of heaviest rain depending on the track of Philippe, but users are reminded tropical cyclone forecasts 4 days in advance are roughly 100 miles. A slight risk for excessive rainfall is present across Vermont and northern New York, which indicates a 15 percent chance of exceeding flash flood guidance. Stay tuned for more updates.
Showers are expected to continue into Sunday, but will become increasingly scattered and less likely to impact areas that may have already received moderate to heavy rain.
CLIMATE
Daily maximum temperature record and forecast (in parentheses) Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-04 82(83)|1891 80(81)|2017 82(84)|1951 82(81)|1967 80(82)|1951 10-05 82(82)|1926 82(78)|1951 85(82)|1991 80(79)|2005 83(78)|1951
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1016 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue through the end of the week with potential for exceeding daily high temperature records again on Thursday. Precipitation chances increase late Friday through the weekend with a strong cold front bringing widespread rain. Unsettled weather and shower chances continue as temperatures trend much cooler heading into next week.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
As of 1013 PM EDT Wednesday...After record high temperatures today, temps are falling rather quickly this evening and in some places have dropped below anticipated lows. So I have lowered overnight lows by 2 to 4 degrees, especially SLV and northern Dacks, but feel values should level off toward midnight, as high clouds approach and gradient continues to increase. Lows generally near 50F SLK/NEK to near 60F CPV/SLV. Rest of fcst in great shape with patchy fog developing in the CT River Valley as we write, with VSF reporting 2 1/2SM sct002 in BR.
Previous discussion below: Temperatures this afternoon have reached the lower to mid 80s across the region, and we still have a few hours of warming to go. Perfectly sunny skies are in place and winds are out of the south. Dry tranquil weather continues through this afternoon and into the overnight. Surface and high pressure ridges remain in place, and dry air remains. Anticipate another mild overnight period, with some fog development in the typically fog prone spots, especially the valleys of Central and Eastern Vermont.
Minimum temperatures will be closer to our normal high temperatures for this time of year. Our lows will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s. Thursday will be another warm and quiet day as frontal system to impact the region this weekend will be very slowly approaching from the west. Southerly flow will become brisk ahead of the front's approach, and though we'll potentially have some more clouds around on Thursday, temperatures will still reach the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Surface and upper level ridges move east of our region, and aforementioned front slowly approaches our area. Will mainly just see an increase in clouds Thursday night, with precipitation holding off till later Friday. Minimum temperatures on Thursday night will not be quite as mild as tonight, but still ranging from the mid 50s to lower 60s. Fog formation should not be as extensive, since we'll have an increase in clouds and southerly flow.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...On Friday, a sharp frontal boundary will begin to progress east across the St. Lawrence River as weak, broad low pressure moves east of James Bay in Canada. Increasingly breezy conditions are expected as pressure gradients tighten ahead of the frontal feature with south to southeast winds 10 to 15 mph, gusting 25 to perhaps even 30 mph.
Greater cloud cover and the southeasterly component will yield above normal, but cooler conditions, with high temperatures climbing into the 70s. Rain is not expected until late in the day, perhaps even into the overnight hours. The front will stall, or may even shift back west as what is presently Tropical Storm Philippe increases southeast flow and has the effect of sharpening the mid- level ridge axis over coastal New England.
Increasing Atlantic moisture ahead of TS Philippe will bring scattered to numerous showers Friday night into Saturday. It will be a fine axis of mainly moderate rain as PWATs gradually increase towards 1.25-1.4", about 175 percent of normal.
However, any moisture will also contend with dry air associated with the persistent ridge, and most deep vertical motion appears to take place into Saturday. So the main thing to watch will be where these features line up and where the front stalls before retrograding.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 235 PM EDT Wednesday...On Saturday into Sunday, an upper trough across the Great Lakes is expected to become negatively tilted and phase with what is presently TS Philippe. Where the upper trough is, how quickly it closes into an upper low, and then phases with TS Philippe will impact where an axis of moderate to heavy rain will set up Saturday into Saturday night.
The cold front will begin to swing east during the day as moisture from TS Philippe overrides the boundary. PWATs remain between 175 percent of normal with favorable jet dynamics and a sharp, slow moving boundary. In terms of instability, lapse rates appear neutrally stable. Additionally, there is some evidence of dry air intrusion within the upper low bring PWATs below 1" fairly quickly on Saturday, with the time window of anomalous PWATs somewhat limited. The interaction will be complex, and there are a number of signals that do not perfectly line up for heavy rainfall, but there are at least signals for sustained light to moderate rain with the slow, but strong frontal boundary compensated with tropical moisture.
Probabilistic guidance continues to suggest 1.50"-2.50" between Friday night and Saturday night is reasonable, but the potential for locally higher totals remains possible depending on TS Philippe's track and interaction. Additional details are noted in the hydro section below.
In terms of rest of the forecast, the cold front will bring much colder conditions, with 60s on Saturday, followed by high temperatures in the 50s, perhaps not even reaching 50 in the Adirondacks of New York. Summits will be flirting with the freezing mark while moisture wraps around the upper low.
Synoptic models forecast 850hPa temperatures reaching below zero, and a handful suggest 925hPa could get close. It appears areas above 3000 ft agl will be in for their first snow. The rest of the region will observe rain showers as the upper low lingers across the area with embedded shortwave troughs and surface boundaries pass through the region, leading to a showery and cool period for the new week with slow, but steady warming back towards normal values.
AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions prevail at all sites for the next 6 hours, with just a small potential for IFR in Fog/Br at MPV around sunrise on Thursday. The combination of increasing mid lvl clouds and southerly gradient should limit fog development overnight, with most sites remaining VFR. Soundings show the potential for fog/upslope stratus is possible at MPV btwn 09z-12z, so have tempo IFR cigs and MVFR vis for now.
Otherwise, soundings showing as sfc heating develops on Thurs morning, mixing improves and localized gusts 10 to 20 knots will be possible, especially at MSS/SLK/BTV and EFK.
Outlook...
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Definite SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Columbus Day: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA.
HYDROLOGY
An extended period of light to moderate rain is expected, with an interval of locally heavy rain associated with a frontal boundary interacting with moisture from TS Philippe. Rain will begin Friday afternoon across northern New York as a frontal boundary stalls across the area and perhaps shifts back to the west. From this, 0.25- 1.00" of precipitation will be possible from the Adirondacks westward, with little rain across the Champlain Valley into eastern Vermont.
By Saturday, Tropical Storm Philippe is expected to transition to post-tropical as it approaches the New England Coastline, and the frontal boundary is expected to move again to the east.
Light to moderate rain will blossom across the area, with a narrow axis of heavier rain at the intersection of the frontal boundary and moisture from Philippe. A high degree of uncertainty remains on the exact track of Philippe and how quickly east the frontal boundary progresses. However, probabilistic guidance suggests an addition 1 to 2" of rain is likely, mainly over Vermont, with 0.25"-0.50" across northern New York.
Combined with Friday afternoon and overnight, this suggests around 1.50-2.50" is likely in 36 to 48 hours across Vermont and northern New York. River forecasts do not encompass the whole event. With recent dry weather, there has not been a primer to increase flood potential, with streamflows for several New York rivers even running below normal. Reasonable worst case scenarios suggest some potential for river flooding, but forecast confidence is currently not high enough to do more than highlight that the potential is present. Locally higher rainfall totals are likely within the strip of heaviest rain depending on the track of Philippe, but users are reminded tropical cyclone forecasts 4 days in advance are roughly 100 miles. A slight risk for excessive rainfall is present across Vermont and northern New York, which indicates a 15 percent chance of exceeding flash flood guidance. Stay tuned for more updates.
Showers are expected to continue into Sunday, but will become increasingly scattered and less likely to impact areas that may have already received moderate to heavy rain.
CLIMATE
Daily maximum temperature record and forecast (in parentheses) Tuesday through Thursday of next week.
Date KBTV KMPV KMSS KPBG KSLK 10-04 82(83)|1891 80(81)|2017 82(84)|1951 82(81)|1967 80(82)|1951 10-05 82(82)|1926 82(78)|1951 85(82)|1991 80(79)|2005 83(78)|1951
BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from FSO
(wind in knots)Sorel
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT 0.67 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT 0.71 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:29 AM EDT 0.67 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:54 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:26 AM EDT 0.71 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 06:27 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 09:20 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.7 |
| 1 am |
| 0.7 |
| 2 am |
| 0.7 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.7 |
| 5 am |
| 0.7 |
| 6 am |
| 0.7 |
| 7 am |
| 0.7 |
| 8 am |
| 0.7 |
| 9 am |
| 0.7 |
| 10 am |
| 0.7 |
| 11 am |
| 0.7 |
| 12 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 1 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 3 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.7 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.6 |
Islets Perces
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:30 AM EDT 0.98 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT 0.95 meters High Tide
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:37 AM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 AM EDT Sunrise
Wed -- 09:30 AM EDT 0.98 meters High Tide
Wed -- 01:23 PM EDT Moonset
Wed -- 04:52 PM EDT 0.95 meters Low Tide
Wed -- 06:26 PM EDT Sunset
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT 0.95 meters High Tide
Wed -- 09:18 PM EDT Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1 |
| 1 am |
| 1 |
| 2 am |
| 0.9 |
| 3 am |
| 0.9 |
| 4 am |
| 0.9 |
| 5 am |
| 1 |
| 6 am |
| 1 |
| 7 am |
| 1 |
| 8 am |
| 1 |
| 9 am |
| 1 |
| 10 am |
| 1 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1 |
| 1 pm |
| 1 |
| 2 pm |
| 1 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 7 pm |
| 1 |
| 8 pm |
| 1 |
| 9 pm |
| 1 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.9 |
Burlington, VT,
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