Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mooers, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 1030 PM EDT Wednesday...Weather is quiet this evening as high pressure building into the forecast area. Minimal updates were needed. Some small tweaks made were to hourly temperatures as Saranac Lake and some others see temps falling quickly under clear skies and light or calm winds. Otherwise, forecast is on track for gradually increasing cloud coverage tonight leading to scattered showers possible Thursday.

Previous discussion...It's been a beautiful spring day with plenty of blue skies and sun as high pressure continues to shift over the region. The dry and quiet weather will continue overnight, with overnight low temperatures dropping into the 30s, with cloud cover gradually increasing overnight into Thursday.

A weak shortwave will pass through the region Thursday, bringing some chances for rain showers, although precipitation amounts will be rather light with the system moving into such a dry airmass.
Better chances for precipitation will arrive later in the day, especially across the northern portions of the forecast area. Some chances for thunderstorms may also be possible in the afternoon, with enough elevated instability for some rumbles of thunder as well some possible surface based instability depending on cloud cover and precipitation through the morning hours. Some of the latest CAM guidance showing the potential for 300+ J/kg of SB CAPE toward the afternoon, especially across portions of northern New York. As previously mentioned, expected rainfall amounts look to be quite light, generally around a tenth of an inch or so although higher totals may be possible within the more convective showers. High temperatures tomorrow will be highly dependent on the overall precipitation and cloud cover the region experiences, but currently expected northern portions of the forecast area to warm into the low to mid 60s, while southern portions may climb into the upper 60s to near 70s. The shortwave will quickly exit Thursday night, with showers tapering off overnight. Overnight lows will generally be on the milder side, with 40s expected across the region.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...A low moves over the Great Lakes and up the St. Lawrence Valley Friday night into Saturday, bringing widespread rainfall. The day Friday should be mostly dry with weak ridging building into the region. There could be a brief shower or two later in the day associated with a warm frontal type feature, mainly over northern New York. As the stratiform precipitation arrives Friday night, some elevated instability develops as well, and some embedded convective showers are possible. There could be a few rumbles of thunder with the heaviest showers. Periods of rain look to continue into Saturday morning until the center of the low passes to the east of the region. A cold front will move through during the day Saturday and it will bring another round of showers.
Models have continued to trend toward a more northward track of the center of the low, which would allow for the region to get fully into the warm sector, and a little surface based instability looks to develop. Therefore, some convection is possible along the front and there will be another chance of having thunder, though it looks to be more focused over southern areas. The models with the most northerly storm track develop a more significant amount of CAPE across southern areas, and looking at GEFS/EPS/CAN ensembles, there is a 10 percent chance of 500 or more J. With plenty of shear around, the possibility of a stronger storm cannot be ruled out.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 335 PM EDT Wednesday...Strong cold air advection will occur on the backside of Saturday's storm system and summit levels will quickly fall below freezing. Lingering cyclonic flow looks to keep some light precipitation around into the day on Sunday, so some snow showers are possible in the mountains. Precipitation will be light and snow levels should remain quite high, so any snow accumulations should be low and restricted to the highest peaks. Even though temperatures will cool a decent amount, they will only fall to around climatological normals. Mixing behind the front and strong winds in the lower levels will cause some gusty winds at the surface, though they do not look to be strong enough to cause any significant impacts. Ridging quickly moves in to start next week, and the surface high should already shift offshore by Tuesday. This will set the stage for warmer conditions mid-week. The next storm system looks to pass through mid-week, and another round of showers with the potential for thunderstorms looks likely.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 00Z Friday...VFR conditions will prevail across all terminals over the next 24 hours with clear to mostly clear skies tonight yielding to increasing clouds tomorrow. Winds are becoming light and variable this evening, turning at times calm overnight tonight. We can expected broken or overcast ceilings return starting around 05Z-10Z Thursday gradually making their way across the forecast area, though ceiling heights should remain 5000 feet above ground level and higher through 00Z Friday. Some models are trying to hint at patchy fog for places like SLK and EFK, however, dry air at the surface should prevent this and confidence that we'll see any visibility restrictions is low. Winds will return out of the southwest tomorrow, increasing in the afternoon. There is the potential for some scattered showers or even a thunderstorm tomorrow, mainly in the afternoon and early evening, but overall chances of measurable precipitation is low.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.