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SLZ024 Expires:202312091615;;155660 Fzus61 Kbuf 090832 Glfsl
forecast for the saint lawrence river including the thousand islands region national weather service buffalo ny 332 am est Sat dec 9 2023
slz022-024-091615- saint lawrence river from cape vincent to saint regis 332 am est Sat dec 9 2023
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of rain early, then rain from late evening on.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Rain.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain in the evening, then snow and rain overnight.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Monday night.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers during the day.

SLZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBTV 090652 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 152 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
As high pressure shifts to our east, temperatures will warm overnight tonight through Saturday. A storm system will affect the area Sunday through Monday, bringing initially heavy rainfall that will transition to a heavy wet snowfall. Travel could be very difficult, especially Sunday night into Monday, including the Monday morning commute. Scattered power outages are possible especially over higher elevations. In addition, rivers are expected to rise sharply Sunday night, with several rivers forecast to crest in Minor Flood Stage Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

150 AM UPDATE...

Except for minor updates to temperatures using the latest observations and hi-res model data, forecast remains largely on track. See previous discussion below.

Previous Discussion...
Upper-level ridge will crest overhead this evening, then slide east overnight. As the ridge axis slides east, expect deep south/southwesterly flow to increase throughout the night. This will result in relatively mild overnight temperatures, especially in comparison to the previous few nights. A non- diurnal temperature trend is expected tonight, with temperatures warming through the night. Most significant overnight warming will occur over the Saint Lawrence Valley and the Champlain Valleys, where temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 30s by dawn. Warming will continue in earnest during the day on Saturday with breezy southerly winds especially in the Champlain Valley. Temperatures will warm into the mid to upper 40s during the day for most of northern NY and the Champlain Valley, and into the low 40s for eastern Vermont. Southerly wind gusts between 15 and 25 mph are expected over the Adirondacks and Champlain Valley during the afternoon hours. Expect broken to overcast skies through the day as clouds spread into the area ahead of the approaching system. We're expecting dry conditions through the day Saturday, before rain moves in from the west Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 356 PM EST Friday...Flood watch for eastern Dacks into central/northern VT from 21z Sunday to 21z Monday for minor flooding forecasted by the River Forecast Center on the Otter Creek, Winooski, Ausable, and Mad Rivers.

Winter storm watch for northern New York into parts of central/northern VT from 03z Monday to 00z Tues for the potential for heavy wet snowfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized 12 to 18 inches for the central/northern Green Mtns. Scattered power outages possible, along with a hazardous Monday morning commute. It should be noted part of this watch will probably be converted to an advisory, while other areas are upgraded to a warning.

Latest trends have been for a faster frontal passage on Sunday night and a slight eastward shift in sfc low pres developing along boundary late Sunday night into Monday, which has shifted the heaviest qpf eastward, while moving the cooler air in quicker.

It should be noted, additional shifts/trends are likely and a large spread continues in our snowfall probability graphics, indicating the complexity of this event.

The challenging part of the fcst is how quickly the s/w energy phases and systems deepens, along with advection of cooler thermal profiles, interacting with deeper moisture. This system has very rich moisture and extremely strong s/w and jet dynamics, adding to the complexity.

Water vapor shows a developing and very complex mid/upper lvl trof acrs the eastern Rockies/High Plains, while potent 25h jet is rounding the trof base acrs the southern Rockies. This developing full latitude trof wl advance eastward and be located acrs the MS Valley by Sunday aftn, with deep southerly flow of abundant moisture advecting into the Mid Atlantic/NE CONUS. PW values surge to 1.0 to 1.25 ahead of boundary, which is 3 to 4 STD above normal for mid Dec. As potent s/w energy located over central/northern CO this aftn rounds the trof base and travels along sharpening thermal gradient low pres wl quickly deepen acrs the eastern Seaboard on Sunday Night. Helping enhance rapidly deepening sfc low pres wl be a favorable dual 25h jet structure with max vertical ascent acrs southern New England. In addition, 925mb to 700mb circulation quickly closes off acrs southern/eastern New England by Monday morning, while sub 985mb low pres continues to deepen acrs the Gulf of Maine. As low pres deepens 925mb to 850mb flow wl shift to the northwest, resulting in moderate llvl caa developing on backside of system. As the thermal gradient tightens, an narrow axis of very favorable 850 to 700mb fgen forcing develops acrs our central/eastern cwa, resulting in a period of moderate to heavy precip late Sunday night into Monday. The dynamical cooling should help to cool column enough for a switch to heavy wet snow from west to east acrs our region late Sunday night into Monday. The timing of phasing and interaction of moisture with cooling thermal profiles, makes for an extremely challenging snowfall fcst.

Our crnt thinking rain develops acrs our western cwa on Sunday morning and increases in areal coverage/intensity on Sunday aftn/evening with localized moderate rainfall likely. As cooler air develops, rain changes to snow acrs the dacks btwn 03-06z on Monday, 06-09z northern Greens, and 09-12z for northern CPV/central VT zns, and btwn 12z-15z for eastern/southern VT areas. This is definitely subject to change as we continue to fine tune the fcst. As colder air deepens our snow ratios wl be changing throughout the event, but wl start at 4/6 to 1 but transitioning to 10/12 to 1 on the backside. Given the heavy wet snowfall and developing backside winds, scattered power outages are possible, including parts of the Champlain Valley on Monday. In addition, with snowfall rates exceeding 1 inch per hour.

For our storm total snowfall we continue to be on the lower side of the snowfall probability guidance due to uncertainty on moisture/thermal profiles. For example at BTV our mostly likely ranges from 2 to 8.5 inches, with our expected amount of 3 inches.
Meanwhile at Stowe our mostly likely range is 6.2 to 13.8 inches with out expected amount of 10 inches. This provides users with an idea of potential possibilities and we anticipate the cap to close as event becomes closer. For the watch we are wording as total snow accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with localized 12 to 18 inches possible across the central and northern Green Mountains of Vermont.
Outside the watch a dusting to 4 inches possible.

Highs on Sunday range from the l/m 40s eastern VT to l/m 50s in favorable downslope areas with localized wind gusts 30 to 35 mph possible parts of the northern Dacks/western Slopes. Sunday night lows range from mid 20s summits to near 40F lower CT River Valley, with highs remaining steady or falling on Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 356 PM EST Friday...Any lingering snow showers should taper off after midnight on Monday, with much quieter weather anticipated on Tues into Weds. Temps will range in the mid/upper 20s to mid/upper 30s on Tues, but cool back into the mid 20s to lower 30s on Weds.
Quiet wx continues for mid to late week with temps at or slightly below normal.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...Cloud deck 4,000-8,000 feet AGL early this morning, though there's an IFR cloud layer out in the Ottawa- Ogdensburg-Potsdam area that could threaten to lower site MSS from VFR or IFR periodically for the next few hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions for all sites at the moment. Some IFR fog and low clouds are possible for MPV over the next few hours as well, but most guidance is showing the site to remain VFR or MVFR through at least 22Z Saturday, at which point low clouds and fog return.
00-06Z Sunday forecast is least certain at this time, but thinking MPV will gradually drop to MVFR and then IFR conditions in fog and low clouds. This is currently the only site that is expected to be affected, but other sites like RUT and BTV show hints of MVFR vis at this later time period 00-06Z Sunday. Winds are expected to pick up at BTV around 17Z Saturday out of the south with gusts 20-25 knots. Other sites could have sustained southerly/southeasterly winds 5-10 knots. Any brief and isolated LLWS this morning around MSS is anticipated to drop off quickly.

Outlook...

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite RA.
Sunday Night: Mainly IFR, with areas MVFR possible. Definite RA, Definite SN.
Monday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Definite SN.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.

HYDROLOGY
A Flood Watch is in effect from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for the eastern Adirondacks eastward into most of central and northern Vermont, including the Champlain Valley.

A strong storm system will bring widespread 1.0 to 2.5 inches of precipitation Sunday into Monday, with locally higher amounts of over 3 inches possible. Dew points surging well into the 40s on Sunday afternoon into evening will lead to significant snowmelt. NOHRSC analysis shows widespread 1-3 inches of Snow Water Equivalent outside of the immediate valleys. The combination of rainfall and snowmelt runoff will lead to sharp river rises Sunday night into Monday. Latest River Forecast Center forecasts have several rivers cresting in Minor Flood Stage Monday morning into Monday afternoon. These rivers are the Winooski River at Essex Junction and Waterbury, the Mad River at Moretown, East Branch of the Ausable at Ausable Forks, and the Otter Creek at Center Rutland.

Strong cold air advection will change rain into heavy, wet snow by Monday morning, with even the valleys changing to snow by mid day Monday. This will help mitigate the snowmelt runoff contribution. Rivers are forecast to recede late Monday through Monday night.

CLIMATE
Record daily precipitation is possible on both Sunday and Monday. Below are current daily records that may be broken based on the current forecast:

December 10: KBTV: 1.10/1938 KMPV: 0.93/1957 KPBG: 0.69/2004 KMSS: 0.86/1953 KSLK: 0.73/1953

December 11: KBTV: 1.43/1952 KMPV: 0.96/1952 KPBG: 0.81/1952

EQUIPMENT
The Burke Mountain NOAA Weather Radio, WWG-50, broadcasting on a frequency of 162.425 MHz is experiencing technical difficulties and is currently off the air. Technicians have advised that parts are needed to conduct repairs, with an estimated return to service on Tuesday, December 12th.

Please refer to local media and commercial radio for the latest weather information. The following nearby NOAA Weather Radio transmitters that can be used include Mount Ascutney on a frequency of 162.475 MHz and Mount Mansfield broadcasting on a frequency of 162.400 MHZ.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for VTZ003-004-006>008-010-016>019.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for VTZ001>011-016>021.
NY...Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Monday evening for NYZ027-029>031-034.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon for NYZ028-031-034-035.

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Sorel
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Sat -- 01:43 AM EST     0.88 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:14 AM EST     0.88 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 05:54 AM EST     0.88 meters High Tide
Sat -- 06:52 AM EST     0.88 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:48 PM EST     0.90 meters High Tide
Sat -- 01:53 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:18 PM EST     0.89 meters Low Tide
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Sorel, Quebec, Tide feet

Islets Perces
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Sat -- 02:13 AM EST     0.95 meters High Tide
Sat -- 03:37 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:30 AM EST     0.94 meters Low Tide
Sat -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 02:16 PM EST     0.96 meters High Tide
Sat -- 04:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:39 PM EST     0.95 meters Low Tide
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Islets Perces, Quebec, Tide feet

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