Monday, October26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millersburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 8:09AMSunset 6:32PM Monday October 26, 2020 6:37 PM EDT (22:37 UTC) Moonrise 4:05PMMoonset 1:49AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ347 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Light Mi Including Bois Blanc Island- 1057 Am Edt Mon Oct 26 2020
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ347 Expires:202010262230;;871214 FZUS53 KAPX 261457 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1057 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ347-262230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersburg, MI
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location: 45.43, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 261742 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 142 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1023 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Still some lingering very light rain and snow out there as mid level impulse pushes into the region. However, no doubt main (and most interesting) feature of interest is compact lake-induced mesolow working its way east across portions of northwest lower Michigan. Enhanced convergence around its center (almost an eye- like feature) resulting in some pockets of heavier precip. This will continue to trend eastward, loosing it definition and intensity as it moves further away from Lake Michigan. May see some brief snow accumulations across inland areas as this low passes, but definitely nothing too significant. Expect more north and northwest light lake effect to follow in its wake. Otherwise, another mostly cloudy day, with temperatures running several degrees below normal.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

. Spotty mixed precip and cold .

High impact weather potential: Small snow accums early today.

An inverted surface trof extends from the upper TN Valley toward Lk Ontario. A surface low may be just barely closed off within this trof, along the KY/VA border. Large areas of high pressure are over far eastern Canada and the central plains, with a ridge axis connecting them just north of Superior. Deeper moisture is found nw of the inverted surface trof, and ahead of a shearing shortwave that will eject across Superior today. We had one round of synoptic precip Sunday evening, mainly snow interior and rain on the coasts. We measured 0.5" of snow at our office with the round. After a brief break, another round of light synoptic precip is moving back into northern MI.

Today . appears the most widespread precip will play out up thru dawn this morning. Deeper moisture will be steadily dwindling today, as the inverted surface trof shifts eastward away from MI, and eventually as the shortwave grazes by this afternoon. There is a bit of a surface trof axis/wind shift line that stretches from far northern Lk Huron to far northern Lake MI. This trof is progged to sharpen up a bit with the approaching shortwave this morning, while slowly moving southward. 1000-850mb convergence along the trof will support sct to numerous rain/snow showers. 8-11am pops will be highest over eastern upper and far northern lower MI, down to perhaps Leelanau Co. This will gradually shift southward while weakening, reaching and mbL-APN line by late afternoon. The development of nnw 1000-850mb winds will support somewhat higher pops in the wake of the Great Lakes, especially near and w of TVC, and in far western Chippewa Co. No major changes expected in the p-type dept, with perhaps a tendency toward more liquid precip in the afternoon thanks to meager diurnal heating. QPF is unimpressive, and daytime snow amounts will be very light. Do have a small area of circa-0.5" accums just south and west of Whitefish Bay.

Tonight . plume of deeper moisture will stall over the southern lakes, leaving us on the far northern fringe. With the high in the central plains become the dominant surface feature, light northerly low-level flow will be in place for the beginning of night. Overnight, a chunk of the surface high separates and reforms near the eastern lakes, resulting in lighter and more chaotic winds. A reasonably vigorous lake effect band is likely to form early in the night down the long axis of Lake MI, relatively close to the Frankfort- mbL coastline. But an increasing land breeze component should tend to keep this band offshore. As we head toward morning, this band should break apart in the weakening wind fields. Any real push onshore is likely to wait til after 12z/8am. For us, chancy pops will work near and west of TVC, near Whitefish Bay, and near Rogers/APN.

Max temps today just upper 30s to mid 40s. Lows tonight in the 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low . Lingering rain/snow across NW lower Tuesday morning.

Pattern Synopsis:

A southwesterly upper-level jet will be draped from the Great Plains across the New England states Tuesday morning before a second strong jet core punches into the Great Lakes behind it later in the day. A cut-off low centered over the far SW CONUS will gradually shift into the southern Great Plains Wednesday as upper-level flow becomes mostly zonal across the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will continue to linger from the Rockies to the Midwest as what is currently Tropical Storm Zeta is expected to move inland along the Gulf coast Wednesday per the latest forecast from the NHC. A weak cyclone also looks to move across Hudson Bay through the middle of the week.

Forecast/Details:

Aside from lingering rain/snow chances Tuesday morning, the short term period appears to be the beginning of an extended dry period for most of northern Michigan. Nearly calm winds in tandem with cold overnight lows should create land breeze formation early Tuesday morning which will work to keep light precip confined to the lakeshore areas initially. These light winds, relatively warm lake temps, and an approaching embedded jet streak aloft could help foster the development of a weak meso-low over northern Lake Michigan, possibly enhancing rain/snow development some. Regardless, winds are expected to increase out of the SW through the morning which should push any lingering precipitation inland before dryer low- level air moves in and mutes precipitation chances later in the day. Overall, little additional accumulation is expected Tuesday morning after sunrise.

The aforementioned cyclone well to our north may bring some additional rain/snow chances to eastern upper on Wednesday, but the majority of precip is expected to be displaced to the north. Otherwise, intensifying SW winds will help bring some warmer air into northern Michigan, resulting in high temperatures reaching into the upper 40s and perhaps low 50s for some. Gusts near 25-30 mph are expected late morning/early afternoon Wednesday over land with some higher gusts possible over the nearshore waters.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Mainly zonal flow is expected to be in place over the Great Lakes heading into Thursday as a cut-off upper-level low over the southern Great Plains will get absorbed back into the main flow. This upper low/trough will then quickly progress across the SE CONUS and depart over the Atlantic by Friday, proving strong support aloft for the remnants of what is currently Tropical Storm Zeta. The remnants of Zeta are anticipated to trek from the lower Mississippi Valley into Appalachia/Mid-Atlantic late this work week, keeping the vast majority of precip to the south of our forecast area. High pressure should then slide into the Great Lakes behind this as upper-level ridging makes its way across the U.S./Canada border, keeping precip chances low heading through the weekend. While precip can't entirely be ruled out given cooler temps and relatively warm lake temps, it appears that the next main chance for rain/snow won't come until early next week. Otherwise, below normal temps look to round out the week before highs warm back up into the low 50s across northern Michigan this weekend.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 139 PM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

More MVFR to VFR conditions expected as lake effect clouds and a few light showers spread across the taf locations (KAPN expected to stay primarily VFR). Some improvement expected on Tuesday as dry air slowly filters into the region. No significant wind issues anticipated.

MARINE. Issued at 345 AM EDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Light, mainly northerly flow will persist into early tonight. High pressure will eventually reform off to our east, and sw flow will ramp up Tuesday and Tue night. Advisories will be eventually be needed at a minimum, and some gale force gusts may be possible, especially on far northern Lake MI.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . mb MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 24 mi68 min NNW 5.1 39°F 43°F28°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 40 mi50 min 38°F 49°F1021.2 hPa32°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 41 mi50 min NNW 7 G 9.9 39°F 48°F1020.8 hPa32°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 44 mi38 min NNW 6 G 7 38°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 44 mi50 min N 5.1 G 8 38°F 51°F1020.7 hPa35°F
45175 45 mi39 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 40°F 49°F1023 hPa31°F

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI15 mi43 minNNW 410.00 miOvercast38°F30°F73%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3W3W3CalmSW3SW4SW3W5W3W3W4NW5NW5NW4NW5NW5
1 day agoSE4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW3SW3SW4SW5SW3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
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N5N6N6N5N3CalmNE3NE3E3E4SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.