Friday, April10, 2020
Privacy Policy
L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Millersburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 8:20PM Friday April 10, 2020 1:52 PM EDT (17:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:49PMMoonset 7:45AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ347 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Light Mi Including Bois Blanc Island- 1030 Am Edt Fri Apr 10 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm edt this evening...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ347 Expires:202004102230;;878932 FZUS53 KAPX 101430 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1030 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ347-102230-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersburg, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.43, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 101421 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1021 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 1011 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Lake effect clouds and light snow showers continue to impact portions of northwest lower Michigan this morning. Drying/subsidence should gradually take there collective toll on lake processes, although per the usual, a bit slower than initially anticipated. Otherwise, mainly partly cloudy skies and chilly mid-Spring weather expected, with highs only reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel several degrees colder.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. Brisk and cold today .

High Impact Weather Potential . None expected.

Primary Forecast Concerns . Whether or not we can generate any lake effect.

Strong push of dry air has ended lingering snow showers as well as clearing skies from north to south over the last few hours. This is despite good over lake instability in place. Model soundings bear out classic inverted V look today (which is very dry low levels and only a bit of mid level moisture) This usually portends the lack of much lake activity. At this point, do not expect much more than northwest flow induced clouds. Suppose there could be a few flurries flying around but will leave these out for now. Cold today with highs generally about 10 degrees below normal. Highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s but the wind should make it feel mighty chilly. Partly cloudy skies tonight with winds diminishing this evening allowing for lows ranging from the upper teens to the mid 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

. A Break and then the Big Wind Up .

High Impact Weather Potential . East winds could be an issue on the north side of this storm on Sunday/Monday as the low moves up into SE Lower Michigan.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible outcomes . Saturday still continues to look dry with increasing clouds and rain advancing into the Upper Great Lakes. The models, for the most part, still look to not bring any precipitation into the area until after 03z/Sun as a 500 mb speed max is in the vicinity of the baroclinic zone of the warm front and the sfc trough. Model soundings overnight continue to show soundings that support rain or maybe a rain/snow mix. Sfc lows in E Upper are close to freezing, but soundings there would support snow, so think that freezing rain or drizzle are a low probability event. Sunday, the rain/mix soundings continue with the sfc low, on both models, moving out of the TX/OK panhandles and moving into the Lower Ohio Valley by 06z/Mon and SE Lower MI by 12z/Mon, which would continue to keep our forecast area, in the dry air through Monday morning. So little to no snow accumulation through the weekend.

Primary Forecast Concerns . The models seem to be coalescing in on a solution. There are still some uncertainty, but the differences in the models have it seeming that the models are getting a chance on this. So the main issues with this system will be winds, and the track will be crucial with that, but also the chance for snow. At least for snow. Based on the GEFS plumes at 18z, the deterministic model was on the low end of the snow accumulations, with the many of the members packing around the mean around 12z/Mon with 3-4 inches. We are on the knife's edge, based on both the GFS and ECMWF, as well as the SREF and NAM, even the CMC NH, is showing (and the NAEFS from yesterday morning) through Sunday should be rain of low snow accumulation, but if the models move 50-100 miles east in the track and snow in E Upper and portions of NW Lower will could be significant.

LONG TERM. (Monday through Thursday) Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Monday may have an accumulating snow, but there is some uncertainty with the model tracks.

Extended (Monday through Thursday) . Monday, the ECMWF and the GFS are about 50 miles apart with the sfc low position by the afternoon, which is in Lake Huron/the North Channel area. Which would continue the rain near APN through 18z/Mon, but change the precipitation to snow everywhere else. However, after 18z/Mon, the rain changes to snow pretty quickly. Monday night With the 850 mb temperatures falling to -12c to -14c, plenty of moisture, and NW winds in the 1000-850 mb flow, think that the there will be moderate to heavy snow amounts in the bands. Tuesday, the winds back to the WNW, but everything else remains the same, so we could continue with more moderate to heavy bands with the -11c to -10c temperatures. Water temperatures are +2c in Lake Superior and +3C in N Lake Michigan. So we continue with good LES conditions through Wednesday morning. Wednesday, the GFS has a much more vigorous shortwave at 500 mb, which spins up a small intense sfc low that enhances the snow fall. The ECMWF just shows -14c 850 mb air, with constant NW winds and RH values above 70% in the layer. So we continue the LES through Thursday morning. Will continue the snow for the day, and wouldn't be surprised if the shortwave/sfc low smooth out toward the ECMWF idea. Thursday, 850 mb temperatures warm to -8c and the RH fall off so the day probably will be dry. The GFS keeps trying to put some snow in for the night, while the ECMWF is dry. The consensus forecast will probably be wet, but wouldn't be surprised if this turns out dry if the pattern holds.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 702 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Drier air will move into the area. However, decent over lake instability will lead to a few light lake effect snow showers or flurries today which may affect TVC and mbL along with MVFR cigs this morning. Northwest winds will be a bit gusty as well. Winds will diminish tonight with VFR conditions.

MARINE. Issued at 339 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2020

Small craft advisory winds across most nearshore zones through early this evening. Winds then diminish later this evening with light winds overnight. Southwest winds increase on Saturday with small craft advisories likely needed. After light winds Saturday night, easterly winds slowly increase Sunday in advance of an approaching powerful storm system.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 8 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . AS SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . AS MARINE . AS


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SRLM4 24 mi83 min NW 21 32°F 31°F15°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 40 mi53 min WNW 16 G 26 34°F 35°F1009.6 hPa (+0.6)17°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 41 mi53 min WNW 15 G 22 35°F 39°F1011.7 hPa (+0.3)16°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 44 mi33 min NNW 13 G 20 38°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 44 mi53 min N 14 G 25 38°F 1009.2 hPa (+0.8)15°F

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
NW9
G22
NW11
G21
NW13
G27
NW16
G23
NW12
G22
NW11
G21
NW15
G25
NW12
G20
NW12
G19
NW9
G17
NW12
G19
NW12
G20
NW11
G19
NW13
G17
NW8
G15
NW7
G15
NW7
G20
NW11
G18
NW10
G14
NW12
G19
NW15
G25
NW15
G26
NW9
G17
NW16
G26
1 day
ago
NE6
NE4
E2
W5
G11
W6
G11
NW3
NW11
G24
N2
W4
W4
W5
W5
SW5
G9
W5
W4
G7
W7
G13
W10
G19
W7
G13
W8
G11
W8
G13
W7
G13
NW11
G15
W7
G20
NW9
G15
2 days
ago
SE8
G11
SE5
SE10
G13
E8
G14
E9
G12
SE9
SE9
G13
SE10
G15
E4
G7
SE5
NE1
G4
N3
N1
SW3
SW1
SW2
W5
SW4
W4
NW3
NW7
G11
W6
G13
N9
N11

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI15 mi58 minNW 16 G 2310.00 miFair38°F17°F43%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
Last 24hrNW15
G25
W18
G26
W19
G27
W12
G22
W19
G22
NW12
G19
NW9
G16
NW15
G23
NW16
G22
NW15
G25
NW12
G19
NW11
G25
NW11
G25
NW12
G22
NW12
G25
NW17
G24
NW13
G25
NW18
G27
NW14
G27
NW13
G27
NW14
G24
NW16
G25
NW15
G25
NW14
G22
1 day agoN12N7N6N4CalmCalmN5NW11
G16
W4NW5NW5SW5W3W4W4W6W7W6W7W10
G21
W11
G19
NW10
G19
W13
G22
W16
G21
2 days agoNE3E7E6SE5E7E5SE7SE6SE7S4S3CalmCalmCalmNW4W7
G15
W4W7W5W10W7
G16
W12
G17
W8
G14
N8

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. If you are subject to CCPA, Google ads on this site will not be based on your past behavior so you will likely not see an ad for a lawn mower just because you looked for one at a big box website. I do not believe this site is subject to CCPA but I am doing what I can to follow the guidelines anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.