Monday, September21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Millersburg, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 7:37PM Monday September 21, 2020 11:37 PM EDT (03:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:35AMMoonset 9:16PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ347 5nm East Of Mackinac Bridge To Presque Isle Light Mi Including Bois Blanc Island- 1011 Pm Edt Mon Sep 21 2020
Overnight..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Slight chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Light winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ347 Expires:202009221015;;173951 FZUS53 KAPX 220211 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1011 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ347-221015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Millersburg, MI
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location: 45.43, -84.1     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 220054 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 854 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 854 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Have boosted pops somewhat in western/central Chip/Mack Cos for this evening. Main mass of convection is lifting ene-ward, and will pass north of Whitefish Pt (this includes all recent CG ltg strikes). This convection is also generally weakening/shrinking with time. However, a few stronger updrafts/showers have been noted on MQT/APX radars in a band from ESC to ISQ toward far western Mack Co. All of this convection is well in advance of any NAM-progged MuCape values. But the 00Z GRB sounding nicely captured a prominent EML, with lapse rates near 8.3 C/km from 720mb to 560mb. There is also some moisture present toward the top of this EML. Will not add any thunder yet, but will certainly continue to monitor.

The tail end of the shortwave crossing upper MI and Superior tonight, will eventually clip central/northern Lake MI well after midnight. CAMs continue to indicate a few showers popping along this axis, closer to 4 am. Maintaining some small chance pops here is quite reasonable.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tuesday) Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

. A few showers possible .

High Impact Weather Potential: None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Afternoon analysis reveals sharp short-wave ridging from the Ohio Valley up through the eastern lakes. Closed mid level wave continues to progress across Manitoba into northwest Ontario with short-wave troughiness/mid-level height falls spreading across the upper Midwest into the northern lakes. West-southwesterly flow across the central and northern CONUS has drawn another plume of smoke across the Midwest and into the Great Lakes giving a milky overcast appearance.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure is across northeast Manitoba with a weak boundary that extends southward across the northern Plains. Lower level southwesterly flow through the Midwest has/is drawing a plume of higher dewpoint air, steep mid level lapse rates and modest instability (<=500 J/Kg MUCAPE) from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes with some cloud cover and spotty shower activity edging through northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Minimal.

Upper level height falls will continue to spread into the northern lakes region tonight into Tuesday, driving the weak boundary and moisture channel/modest instability axis through the region by mid afternoon Tuesday. Along with modest synoptic forcing provided by a compact upper jet core rounding the trough may touch of a few showers tonight through Tuesday morning. There have been and are some lightning strikes upstream in eastern Minnesota, and SPC continues to push general thunder just into eastern Upper Michigan on their Day One outlook. I just don't think there will be enough instability to support thunder this far east . so will leave it out at this juncture.

Finally, a veering deep layer wind profile on Tuesday should suppress our recent smoke plume south into the lower lakes.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

. Continued Unseasonably Mild; Showers Possible Thursday .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops Thursday.

Nearly zonal flow aloft through Wednesday evening should yield rain free and unseasonably mild conditions. A trough moving through the flow will then bring chances for a few showers across eastern upper late Wednesday night and on into far northern lower Thursday. Highs Wednesday ranging from the mid 70s north to the low 80s southeast. Not quite as warm Thursday because of more clouds and possible showers with highs ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows both night in the mid 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

. Above Normal Temperatures then Showery and Cooler .

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Slowly building heights will lead to more above normal temperatures through Saturday. A short wave moving through the flow may bring a few showers to the region Saturday night into Sunday. A potentially stronger short wave moving through a developing long wave trough aloft next Monday will bring better chances for rain showers along with slight chances for thunder. Cooler temperatures are expected Sunday and especially early next week.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 736 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

VFR. LLWS at PLN part of tonight.

High pressure is well to our east, while a cold front is advancing across the central and northern plains. In between, southerly low-level flow continues, bring warmer air to the region. An upper level disturbance is contributing to some showers and TSRA in parts of northern WI and western upper MI. The bulk of this activity is expected to move ene-ward, staying north of PLN. However, a stray shower could pop up nw and n central lower MI late tonight. This chance is too low to include in the TAFs. Otherwise VFR, though with a continued smoke/haze layer aloft. This smoke layer may thin out a bit Tuesday, with the thicker smoke shifting a bit southward.

S to sw breezes tonight, which become more westerly and gustier on Tuesday. LLWS for part of tonight at PLN.

MARINE. Issued at 353 PM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Gusty S/SW winds will continue to produce low end small craft advisory conditions on Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay through tonight. Winds subside through the day Tuesday and remain on the lighter side through midweek.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 11 PM EDT this evening for MIZ025- 031. BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for MIZ095. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 40 mi50 min S 8 G 11 57°F 56°F1023.5 hPa55°F
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 41 mi50 min SE 4.1 G 5.1 59°F 60°F1022.1 hPa49°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 44 mi28 min WSW 6 G 7 58°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 44 mi50 min WSW 1.9 G 5.1 58°F 58°F1024.5 hPa50°F
45175 45 mi19 min Calm G 0 60°F 59°F1023 hPa50°F

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogers City, Presque Isle County Airport, MI15 mi43 minS 810.00 miFair58°F43°F60%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPZQ

Wind History from PZQ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S8S10S9
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1 day agoS7S7S7S6S5S8S5S8S7S6S5S6S8S9S7S8S8S8SE8SE8SE9
G14
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2 days agoCalmSW5W4SW5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmSW4SW4SW5SW3NE3N6NE8E9E11
G16
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SE8SE5SE4SE7SE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.