Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tillamook, OR

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Friday...Shower activity is increasing across the region as a shortwave trough is digging into the PacNW coast. Heaviest shower activity is expected through the morning as the deepest are of moisture comes onshore. Shower activity will continue into the afternoon as another disturbance approaches Vancouver Island. There is also a slight chance (10-20%) for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. No strong thunderstorms are expected. Shower activity is expected to be more persistent across the higher terrain of the western slopes of the Cascades. Rainfall totals through tonight across the lowlands are expected to fall between 0.10-0.40 inches, generally higher totals across the northern portion of the forecast area. Higher totals across the Coast Range expected with totals between 0.25-0.75 inches expected.
Highest totals across the Cascades and Cascade Foothills, generally 0.75-1.25 inches with locally higher amounts.

Conditions trend drier on Sunday, though light showers will persist into the afternoon as the disturbance over Vancouver Island becomes a cut-off low east of the Cascades, centered over eastern Washington. Weak ridging will build into the region, supporting partly sunny skies during the afternoon, though temps will remain 5- 8 degrees below average, topping out in the low 60s inland. Model agreement is increasing for another weak system to cross the region on Monday with another round of light rain showers expected. Totals of 0.10-0.20 inches expected across much of the are with totals as high as half an inch across the higher terrain of the Cascades. Zonal flow with another embedded disturbance passing to the north may maintain light showers into Tuesday.

Agreement degrades middle to end of next week with cluster analysis showing split pretty equally between ridging and troughing. NBM guidance though continues to suggest temperatures gradually warm closer to average toward the latter part of next week, along with precipitation probabilities generally 15% or less Wednesday through Friday. -Batz

AVIATION
Weak front is moving across northwest Oregon as of 09z Sat accompanied by numerous rain showers, producing IFR conditions at the coast and mainly MVFR with a few pockets of IFR inland. Expect these conditions to persist through around 21z Sat, after which time conditions will trend back towards VFR as showers start to diminish in coverage. There remains a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms across the Willamette Valley today. Any of these storms will be capable of producing small hail, gusty winds, and temporarily reduced cigs and visibilities, but probabilities are too low for inclusion in TAFs at this time.
Winds will shift northwesterly and increase to 10-15 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt behind the front 18-21z Sat, diminishing again 03-06z Sun.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Mainly MVFR in rain showers through 21z Sat, improving to VFR thereafter as showers diminish in coverage. Wind generally W-SW at or below 5 kt through 21z Sat, shifting NW and increasing to 10-15 kt with a few gust to 20 kt through 03-06z Sun. /CB

MARINE
Fresh northwest breezes will develop over the coastal waters today as a weak front moves inland along the Oregon Coast early this morning. This will produce low end Small Craft Advisory conditions through early Sunday as winds gust to around 25 kt. Seas will generally be in the 6-8 ft range, dominated by a mid period westerly swell on the order of 6-7 ft at 10-11 seconds.
Calmer conditions are expected during the day on Sunday as high pressure moves overhead, bringing lighter west winds as the westerly swell persists at 5-6 ft. Winds will shift southerly as the next front approaches the waters Sunday night into Monday, likely warranting another round of headlines as models depict a 80-90% probability of wind gusts to 25 kt through Monday evening.
Seas look to increase towards the middle of next week as westerly swell builds to around 10 ft on Tuesday. /CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ210-251>253-271>273.