Bay City, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Bay City, OR


December 5, 2023 6:40 AM PST (14:40 UTC)
Sunrise 7:34AM   Sunset 4:31PM   Moonrise  12:00AM   Moonset 1:13PM 

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      Help
PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 252 Am Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
.gale warning in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from 10 am pst this morning through Wednesday afternoon...
Today..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 16 ft with a dominant period of 13 seconds in the morning. Rain.
Tonight..N wind 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves N 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 18 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Wed..N wind 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves nw 2 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 15 ft at 15 seconds. Rain in the morning, then showers and a slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 13 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..E wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming nw 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves E 4 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the nw 5 ft at 6 seconds in the afternoon. SWell W 12 ft at 13 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves W 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 11 ft at 12 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..S wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming se 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 9 ft at 12 seconds.
Sat..S wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 40 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 12 seconds.

PZZ200 252 Am Pst Tue Dec 5 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Strengthening system to persist through Tuesday. Increasing southerly winds through Tuesday. Deepening low pressure system moves from the gulf of alaska over vancouver island on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bay City, OR
   Hourly   EDIT   Help   Map

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
      (on/off)   Help   
NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS66 KPQR 051237 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 430 AM PST Tue Dec 5 2023

SYNOPSIS
Moderate to heavy rain will continue pushing southeast into the region this morning and will continue into Wednesday morning. Rivers will be on the rise, with several of those draining from the Willapa Hills and Coast Range likely to flood sometime today into tonight. This will increase the risk for river, small stream, and urban flooding through Wednesday afternoon. Colder air moves inland behind the front Wednesday, bringing snow showers to the Cascades. A colder weather system Thursday will bring another push of lighter precipitation, though moderate snow will be possible at times over the Cascades. A brief break Friday before another warmer yet weaker weather system impacts the region Saturday.

SHORT TERM
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate the surface cold front has continued to slowly inch its way through the coastal waters and along the PacNW coast over the past 8 hours. As of 3:30 AM PST, the front has begun pushing inland along the SW Washington and far NW Oregon coast with a clear frontal boundary stretching from roughly the Puget Sound south into Tillamook County then southwest into the Pacific Ocean. Water vapor satellite imagery shows a vast amount of moisture streaming into the PacNW from the Pacific Ocean along the front from the Pacific. The slow movement of this strong atmospheric river as it approaches land is as forecast. Guidance continues to indicate the front will move very slowly through NW Oregon and SW Washington throughout today and into early Wednesday morning, with a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain through this time. However, even now uncertainty remains in exactly where the heaviest band of rain will set up. This is down to how fast the surface front decides to move and if and where the front ends up stalling, as guidance has indicated it might, though the heaviest rain is still expected along and northwest of a line stretching from far western Lane county, through central Clackamas County, and west of Hood River county. Many locations along and west of the front have already picked up 0.5-1 inch of rain in the past 3 hours, and the main push of moisture is yet to come. Rivers along the NW Oregon and SW Washington coast are beginning to rise rapidly and rivers across the region will continue to rise throughout today and into Wednesday. Urban and river flooding is expected.
Please see the hydrology section below for more information on river/urban flooding and forecast rainfall amounts.

Along with rain, gusty winds are occurring along and ahead of the front, especially along the coast. Gusts up to 45 to 55 mph have been observed and will continue into the morning hours for wind prone areas along the coast and terrain. Elsewhere could see gusts up to 25 to 35 mph along the front. A few downed branches or power lines are possible in windier locations with some larger tree branches and small trees falling due to saturated soils.

Guidance shows a shortwave will eventually (finally) begin pushing the front east Wednesday morning into the afternoon hours. The HRRR indicates rainrates could remain fairly steady through Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with steadier rain becoming showers sometime Wednesday morning, depending on if/when the front stalls. Post-frontal thunderstorms are a possibility as colder air pushes in behind the shortwave. Best chances have shifted to later in the day and evening Wednesday as the front will take its time moving east. As the colder air moves in, snow levels will begin dropping over the Cascades to around 4000-4500 ft Wednesday evening then to around 3000-3500 ft by Thursday morning, which will bring light snow showers. -HEC


LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Broad upper level troughing expected to shift over the region on Thursday bringing another round of widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures aloft. A colder frontal system will move across the area on Thursday causing snow levels fall to around 2500-3000 ft by Thursday night. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures drop to around -2 to -4 deg C which would support accumulating snow at Cascade passes. NBM indicates a 70-90% chance of 12+ inches of snow at the Willamette and Santiam Passes, with lower chances of 20-30% in the northern Oregon Cascades.

Drier weather expected on Friday as appears likely to have a brief break between weather system. The next frontal system then expected to bring another round of precipitation on Friday. A plume of moisture with increased IVT values likely to be associated with this front, though there remains considerable uncertainty with exactly where the Atmospheric River will take its aim. Latest models show this will be directed somewhere along the Oregon coast.
Snow levels are expected to rise again on Saturday from around 3000 ft to 6000 ft. WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast on Sunday, likely trending toward another break between systems. /DH/HEC

HYDROLOGY
Heavy rain is slowly moving southeast through the region Tuesday morning a cold front enters the region. Moderate to heavy rain will impact the region into Wednesday morning.
Rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.33"/hr are expected with the potential for brief periods of 0.33 to 0.50 "/hr over the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and south Washington Cascades.

Rainfall for 4 AM Tuesday - 4 AM Wednesday: ** Coastal areas 1 to 4 inches ** Coast Range/Willapa Hills 2 to 6 inches ** Inland I-5 Corridor 1 to 3 inches (includes Cowlitz, lower Columbia, Willamette Valley)
** South Washington Cascades/foothills 2 to 6 inches ** Western Columbia Gorge 2 to 4 inches ** North Oregon Cascades/foothills 1 to 3 inches ** Lane/Linn County Cascades/foothills 0.25 to 0.5 inches ** Mid-Columbia Gorge/Hood River Valley 0.5 to 2 inches

With all this new rainfall, many rivers will be on the rise again, with those that drain from the Coast Range and Willapa Hills being of most concern reaching flood stage on Wednesday. This includes the Grays, Naselle, Nehalem, Nestucca, Wilson, and Siletz. With higher seas at the bays/estuaries, any river may see high water levels due to backing up of water during high tides. Current Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening.

On the other hand, many of the smaller streams and creeks will rise quickly today into Wednesday, with some flooding expected.
Areas with poor drainage, such as railroad crossings and underpasses, as well as areas with leaf-clogged drains, will see significant ponding of water. An Small Stream and Urban Flood Advisory is in effect through Wednesday evening. -Rockey/HEC

AVIATION
12Z TAFs: Widespread VFR inland, with occasional MVFR conditions from rain showers. With increasing rain, expect inland CIGS to slowly drop to widespread MVFR through this morning.
Coastal areas will remain under MVFR conditions with areas of IFR in heavier rain, lasting through the TAF period. Expect winds gusting 30 to 40 kts through Tuesday morning, with strongest along the headlands and open beaches. As often the case, wind gusts around 45 to 60 kts likely farther aloft, mainly above about 3000 ft along the coast and over the Cascades through Tuesday morning.
Not much change through Tue afternoon, with widespread MVFR and rain for nearly all of the region. Expect higher terrain to be obscured in clouds and precip through Tue afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with occasional MVFR and rain throughout the afternoon. Surface wind slowly turns more southerly Tuesday morning, bringing some potential of low level wind shear, however confidence remains low, thus have excluded from the TAF. /JH

MARINE
The atmospheric river (AR) that is the main weather maker for the next 24-48 hours is positioned over northern Washington. It has slowly shifted southward overnight into Tuesday morning, which will increase winds and seas. Winds currently are around 35 kt at buoy 46050, with similar speeds in the nearshore waters based on coastline observations. Will see these winds persist through Tuesday morning, then ease behind the AR. The gale warning remains in effect through Tuesday morning for winds.

Conditions will become showery behind the system. Each shower will bring periods of breezy winds. Seas will remain around 12-15 ft through the next several days with a brief lull late tonight.
However, a dropping low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will coincide with the post frontal environment causing winds to shift to the west. The westerly wind, when combined with the westerly long range swell, will once again cause seas to build to around 18 ft by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. These seas will coincide with a long period of 15-18 seconds. Will experience hazardous seas behind the front.

In the long term, yet another system approaches from the north, but this time a cold front. This cold front will cause winds to intensify once more but seas will be unaffected. -JH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 8 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 4 PM PST Wednesday for Columbia River Bar.


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 2 mi100 min 54°F29.99
46278 5 mi100 min 55°F 53°F12 ft
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 49 mi104 min 53°F12 ft

toggle option: (graph/table)

Wind History for Astoria, OR
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help

No data


Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTMK TILLAMOOK,OR 9 sm25 minS 12G203/4 smOvercast Rain Mist 61°F61°F100%29.95

Wind History from TMK
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Garibaldi, Oregon
   
EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Garibaldi
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:14 AM PST     1.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM PST     6.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:09 PM PST     3.69 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:13 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM PST     5.86 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Garibaldi, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1.8
2
am
2.5
3
am
3.5
4
am
4.6
5
am
5.6
6
am
6.4
7
am
6.8
8
am
6.6
9
am
6.1
10
am
5.4
11
am
4.6
12
pm
4
1
pm
3.7
2
pm
3.9
3
pm
4.3
4
pm
4.9
5
pm
5.4
6
pm
5.8
7
pm
5.8
8
pm
5.5
9
pm
4.7
10
pm
3.8
11
pm
3



Tide / Current for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Tillamook
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:16 AM PST     0.76 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM PST     5.67 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:12 PM PST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:30 PM PST     1.97 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:13 PM PST     4.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
1.6
1
am
1
2
am
0.8
3
am
1
4
am
1.8
5
am
3
6
am
4.3
7
am
5.3
8
am
5.7
9
am
5.5
10
am
5
11
am
4.3
12
pm
3.6
1
pm
2.8
2
pm
2.3
3
pm
2
4
pm
2.1
5
pm
2.9
6
pm
4
7
pm
4.6
8
pm
4.6
9
pm
4.3
10
pm
3.7
11
pm
3




Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help


GEOS Local Image of Pacific Northwest   
EDIT

Portland, OR,



NOTICE: Some pages have affiliate links to Amazon. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases. Please read website Cookie, Privacy, and Disclamers by clicking HERE. To contact me click HERE. For my YouTube page click HERE