Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garden, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The Great Lakes remain under cool NW flow with broad troughing over the northern quarter of the US. Early this morning, water vapor and RAP analysis indicate an embedded shortwave near IA, but this remains well to our south with mostly clear skies over the UP.
Temperatures are falling back quite nicely, already in the lower to mid 40s across much of the area. I would not be shocked to see some of the usual suspects falling into the upper 30s.

Heading into the daytime hours, quiet, sunny, and dry conditions give way to increasing clouds and eventually chances for showers into the afternoon and evening as another shortwave drops into the Northern Plains and heads towards the Great Lakes. Combined forcing from this approaching wave and building diurnal instability may support the development of afternoon showers/thunderstorms, particularly across the south-central and east half. That said, coverage of showers and storms increases this evening as the trough axis finally shifts into the area, tapering off after 06Z. We are certainly not looking at a washout, with most spots coming in below a tenth of an inch, but guidance does show around a 25% chance for some higher totals in excess of a quarter inch where any heavier downpours can occur. Otherwise, expect temperatures to come in milder compared to Sunday, peaking in the lower 70s for most, and in the upper 60s onshore of Lake Michigan. Temperatures fall back into the mid 40s to lower 50s overnight.

Additional shower/thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday as the midlevel shortwave reflects a weak surface low through Lower Michigan. Deterministic guidance then hones in on a stronger shortwave and upper level jet streak descending out of the Canadian Rockies into the Midwest Wednesday through Thursday. The main forcing for precipitation remains south of the UP, thus ensemble probability for rainfall amounts >0.5" by Thursday morning remain stalled between 40-60%, greatest across the southern half of the UP.
Broad troughing is expected to continue over central/eastern Canada going into the next weekend, suggesting daily rain/thunderstorm chances should be expected with continued below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 145 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period with one exception. MVFR conditions will be possible in any showers and thunderstorms that move through at IWD and SAW later today. Will continue to highlight that impact with PROB30 groups. In addition, westerly winds will increase again at CMX around daybreak with gusts in the 25 to 30 kt range through this evening.

MARINE
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

WSW winds are on the increase this morning, gusting to around 15- 20kts over the western arm of the lake already. Gusts increase 15- 25kts into the afternoon hours ahead of an approaching shortwave, highest between the Keweenaw and Isle Royale. Winds fall back below 15kts by early Tuesday, and finally increase out of the east again Wednesday into Thursday as another system moves through the Midwest; gusts up to 20-25kts will be possible, highest over the far western portions of the lake. Winds remain elevated through the end of the week.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.