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LMZ261 Lake Michigan From Seul Choix Point To Rock Island Passage 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South Of A Line From Seul Choix Point To The Mackinac Bridge And North Of A Line From Charlevoix Mi To South Fox Island 5 Nm Offshore- Lake Michigan From Charlevoix To Point Betsie Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Point Betsie To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Rock Island Passage To Sturgeon Bay Wi- Lake Michigan From Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- Lake Michigan From Pentwater To Manistee Mi 5 Nm Offshore To Mid Lake- 913 Am Cdt Sat Sep 23 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Rest of today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Sunday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday..East winds 10 to 15 kt becoming northeast 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..East winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..East winds 10 to 20 kt becoming northeast. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..East winds 10 to 15 kt increasing to 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ200
No data

FXUS63 KMQT 231421 AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 1021 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1021 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023

A shortwave rippling northward through WI ahead of the main parent low centered over the Northern Plains is bringing a round of showers into the area this morning. While most of the showers (with some rumbles of thunder) are still looking to stay contained to the western UP, satellite and radar trends indicated that some should work into the central UP. CAMs have also been kind enough to pick up on this trend. With that, PoPs have been expanded slightly more eastward towards M-95 with this mid-morning update. Afternoon highs have been further reduced by a degree or two in order to match up with trends among the latest guidance and with the greater coverage of showers.

SHORT TERM
(Through Today)
Issued at 315 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023

Upper air pattern consists of a 500 mb closed low over Wyoming, a closed low with Ophelia one the mid Atlantic seaboard and a ridge across central Canada. There is also a shortwave over the mid Mississippi River Valley. The Wyoming closed low heads east into the northern plains by 00z Sun. Deeper moisture and some weak 850-500 mb q-vector convergence moves across the western cwa today. This will bring some showers in this morning across the west. Made a few adjustments downward for temperatures in the west due to rain and cloud cover, otherwise did not change much from the going forecast.
Pcpn area pushes west and north during the afternoon.

LONG TERM
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 439 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023

Key Messages: -Low pressure system provides precip chances over the western U.P.
the rest of this weekend as well as some breezy winds.
-Mostly dry forecast after the weekend, dominating high pressure could lead to increasing fire weather concerns.

Starting tonight, a mid-level closed low over South Dakota moves northeast along the North Dakota/Minnesota state line where it then stalls Sunday night. The associated surface low does not appear to move much tonight as it occludes due to the strong blocking high pressure near James Bay. Isolated rain showers with a few rumbles of thunder look to stay west of the U.P. out in northeastern Wisconsin and out over the far western waters of Lake Superior tonight. The pressure gradient over the far west gradually weakens on Sunday with the 30-35 knot LLJ following suit Sunday afternoon/evening. This will result in some east to southeast wind gusts up to 20 to 25 knots over the western U.P. through Sunday afternoon; expected cloud cover will help work against LLJ winds from mixing down to the surface. As the low centers west of the lake, POPs increase on Sunday with WAA, some weakening 850-500 mb q-vector convergence and weak short waves swinging over the U.P. off of the low. That being said, the ridging building in from the northeast will work against rain chances and keep showers primarily over the west.

The blocky pattern turns mostly dry next week as guidance supports strong positive height anomalies over the Hudson Bay. This will push drier air south to southwest toward the U.P. as noted in PWATs. As a result, much of the deterministic and ensemble guidance has the U.P.
missing out on POPs for almost the entirety of next week. Slight chance POPs were added this forecast package Monday through Tuesday, mainly along the WI/MI state line as the mid-level closed low tracks southeast through Wisconsin by Tuesday night and the Ohio River Valley on Thursday. Dry weather is then expected through Friday.
Slight chance POPs return to the U.P. Friday night through the Weekend, however confidence remains low with the blocky ridging pattern remaining strong in the deterministic and ensemble guidance.
Temperatures are expected to stay above normal with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s and lows generally in the 50s. As the dry weather continues and high pressure helps mix down drier dew points, fire weather concerns may increase this coming week, especially as trees begin to shed their leaves.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 625 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023

A disturbance will pass just w of Upper MI this morning. Being closer to the disturbance, IWD will be affected by -shra at times thru early this aftn. Best chc of shra will occur during the morning hours, after 12z. Expect VFR at IWD with conditions falling to MVFR this morning when shra are most likely. Expect improvement back to VFR by late aftn. At CMX, -shra should remain w of the terminal.
Expect VFR to prevail thru the fcst period at CMX. At SAW, VFR will prevail.

MARINE
(For the 4 AM Lake Superior forecast issuance)
Issued at 439 AM EDT SAT SEP 23 2023 High pressure holds over Ontario today and tonight while a low pressure deepens, moving into the Dakotas along the Minnesota state line. This will yield a tightening pressure gradient, especially across western Lake Superior. Expect easterly winds around 15 to 20 knots across the lake through Sunday with gusts up 25 to 30 knots over the western third of the lake today and gusts up to 20 to 25 knots over the west half on Sunday. As the pressure gradient weakens Sunday night and high pressure builds in from the northwest, east to southeast winds drop back to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 knots across the west half of the lake through Monday. With high pressure dominating through much of next week, winds are expected to stay below 20 knots.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

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