Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garden, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 434 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Negative tilt longwave trough axis stretches from British Columbia to the Mid MS Valley today...with strong punch of PV over MO/IA attm
As a result
1000mb occluded surface low hanging out over IA...with surface trough axis stretching back through the Northern Plains
warm front extending into the OH Valley
and cold front stretching back into TX. 1032mb surface high standing relatively firm over Hudson Bay...though pressure is falling over the Upper Great Lakes
In the middle, beneath upper col region
strengthening pressure and moisture gradient over the Midwest attm with strong E/NE winds across the region and a swath of precip from Minnesota through central WI into SW Lower MI. Temps holding in the 40s to near 50 across the UP thus far today...with dewpoints in the 20s and 30s...as mid/high clouds slip overhead. Low-levels this afternoon are quite dry through about 850-700mb just to our south over northern WI...the dry air mass runs even deeper, up toward 450-500mb across the western Yoop. A few rain showers being reported upstream over parts of WI...though satellite and radar trends generally indicate this swath of moisture is struggling to stay strong in the face of dry Canadian air that is being reinforced in the low levels by easterly flow.

Trough axis to continue to punch ESE into the OH Valley tonight...leaving some niblets of PV energy stalled across the Upper Midwest for a time. This eastward punch will ultimately result in a lobe of PV retrograding into the Upper Midwest Thursday...with influence of upper trough likely holding on into the weekend.
Certainly possible this idea could hold on longer, as there are some signals for overall troughing to hang on across the central US/Midwest going into the start of next week...though quite a bit of uncertainty in how this evolves attm.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Short Term (Tonight through Wednesday)...

Showers into tonight?... Primary concern through the overnight is whether or not enough moisture/forcing gets into the western UP to generate any showers that actually make it to the ground through the deep dry layer. The moisture/radar returns are slowly creeping northward attm, inching ever so slowly toward the tip of the Yoop (drizzle being reported as far north as KCOQ as of 20z). E/NE flow is still holding firm...suggesting we should be able to maintain enough of a dry layer to preclude most, if not all precip chances today across most, if not all of the area. Best chance of any shower activity should be near the WI/MI border...generally along and south of the US-2 corridor, where mid-levels may saturate enough to squeeze a little bit of something out of the air. Menominee has the best shot at seeing much in the way of any rainfall accumulations through the next 24hrs.

Breezy through Wednesday...Think the strongest pressure gradient will be in the vicinity this afternoon and /should/ wane going into this evening and overnight...which should tamp down the sustained winds a bit as we go through the overnight. Think gusts will be lesser over the north half of the CWA ..and a little bit better across the southern half where there is a better shot at things remaining a little more mixed.
However...should remain gustiest over western Lake Superior toward Duluth where northeast flow should continue to be enhanced...and looking at gales continuing here through at least midday Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 434 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Showery and cold through the end of the week...low-level moisture increases ahead of PV max pinwheeling back toward Lake Superior...and as we start to tap into a slightly more moist air mass compared to the current one. Think the best shot for showers will be Thursday into Friday attm with the PV max and also with some diurnal instability to contend with on Thursday. Some potential for high pressure to try to build in from the west going into the weekend (holiday weekend!)...which could bring frost/freeze concerns to parts of the area if radiational cooling is allowed to take hold.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 137 AM EDT Wed May 21 2025

VFR conditions through the period. Winds E/NE AOB 10kts thorugh 12Z, then strengthening to 10 to 15kts with G15 to G20kts. Skies BKN-OVC AOA 5kft. VCSH chances for KIWD will linger through ~10Z.

MARINE
Issued at 434 PM EDT Tue May 20 2025

Strong gradient remains intact between surface high over Hudson Bay...and east-west oriented surface low over the Mid Mississippi Valley, the latter of which is expected to trek eastward through the Ohio Valley tonight/Wednesday. Think the gales will hang on over the western tip of Lake Superior into at least Wednesday morning (LSZ162) and have extended this appropriately. Winds should diminish overnight for areas between Marquette and Grand Marais...but think they will try to pick back up again Wednesday during the day. Winds slowly diminishing through Wednesday, though still gusty at times near 30kts.

MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon for LSZ162.

Lake Michigan...
None.