Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Garibaldi, OR

SHORT TERM
Monday Afternoon through Wednesday...Observations early Monday afternoon indicate the surface front that passed through the region this morning is now situated east of the Cascades. Showers have become must more isolated in nature and are mainly limited to the mountains and SW Washington. A slight chance (10-15%) of stronger showers or thunderstorms remains over the Pacific county and Clatsop county coasts, though little impacts are expected except for brief periods of heavy rain and gusty and erratic winds. Satellite data shows mostly clear skies over the Willamette Valley and Clark County lowlands, which has allowed temperatures to already rise into the low to mid 60s as of 2pm PDT. Winds have increased behind the frontal passage with gusts up to 20-25 mph at times, decreasing in the overnight hours tonight. Scattered showers will continue across all of NW Oregon and SW Washington through tomorrow afternoon as weak troughing keeps unsettled conditions over the region.
Temperatures will be similar if not a few degrees cooler, topping out in the low 60s.

A weak transient ridge will move over the region on Wednesday, allowing dry conditions to briefly return. Daytime temperatures are forecast to rise back to near normal for mid- May, peaking in the upper 60s to right around 70 degrees across the interior lowlands and upper 50s to low 60s. NBM indicates a 40-60% chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees in the Portland/Vancouver metro area, though only a 30-40% chance for the rest of the interior lowlands. -HEC

LONG TERM
Wednesday night to Sunday...Ensemble guidance is in agreement that a weak upper trough will push into the PacNW from the west late Wednesday into Thursday morning. This will bring another round of light showers to the region. However, with limited moisture and forcing associated with this system, locations west of the Cascades may see little to no rainfall. Even over the Cascades, showers are expected to be scattered with only 0.01-0.2 inches of rain possible, mainly in the overnight Wednesday and early morning hours on Thursday. Daytime temperatures Thursday are expected to back to near normal again, with NBM indicating a 45-65% chance of temperatures reaching or exceeding 70 degrees.

For Friday into Saturday, ensemble solutions are coming into better agreement of another weak trough pushing west into the PacNW on Friday, though uncertainty remains on timing. About half of the WPC 500mb clusters suggest the trough will move through the area quickly with ridging returning by Saturday. The other half indicate troughing will continue into Saturday. This is leading to a forecast temperature spread for inland areas of anywhere from the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday. At this point, NBM indicates a 55-65% chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees. This probability increases to 70-85% for Sunday with a 30-55% chance of temperatures exceeding 80 degrees as around 75% of clusters show ridging forming somewhere over the Western US and impacting the PacNW, though significant differences remain in location and intensity of the ridging. -HEC

AVIATION
Radar imagery and surface observations as of Monday evening depict light shower activity across southwest Washington and the north Oregon coast as a weak upper level system moves overhead.
Showers are expected to remain light tonight into Tuesday morning, with predominately low-end VFR CIGs across all terminals. The coast could have intermittent MVFR CIGs , with guidance suggesting a 30-50% chance for CIGs below 3 kft along the coast through Tuesday afternoon. Meanwhile, probabilities remain around 15-30% for MVFR CIGs across the Willamette Valley through 18z Tue. Expect more cloud breaks for inland terminals Tuesday afternoon/evening as the weak system exits the area. Winds generally southwesterly across the region around 10 kt or less.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominately VFR through the TAF period with a 20-30% chance for intermittent MVFR CIGs . Any lingering showers are expected to be light and not cause VIS impacts. West southwesterly winds under 10 kt expected. -Alviz

MARINE
Currently as of 2 PM, rather gusty westerly winds in the wake of a front, most commonly in the 15-20 kt range. Seas will also remain locally steep and chaotic in the 6-8 ft range due to lingering short period wave energy and a persistent westerly swell.
An active Small Craft Advisory has come to an end as conditions diminish this afternoon. Expect somewhat of a lull in conditions this evening as winds and short period seas gradually diminish, but the break will be short lived as a fresh arriving mid period westerly swell builds to around 10-12 ft late tonight through Tuesday, warranting another round of Small Craft Advisories. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for all waters from 11 PM Monday to 8 PM Tuesday. Additionally, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Columbia Bar from 5 AM to 2 PM Tuesday.

Seas subside back to 5-7 feet on Wednesday, ushering a period of relatively calmer conditions through the end of the week. Weak high pressure looks to bring a round of light to moderate northerly breezes to the waters Wednesday and Thursday, with benign onshore flow then taking over Friday into next weekend. ~Hall/CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253- 271>273.