Wednesday, March3, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Mill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:02PM Wednesday March 3, 2021 4:12 AM PST (12:12 UTC) Moonrise 11:48PMMoonset 9:13AM Illumination 77% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 257 Am Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am pst this morning...
.small craft advisory in effect this evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...seas 6 to 8 ft through Wednesday night. - first ebb...strong ebb around 730 am Wednesday. Seas 10 ft with breakers possible. - second ebb...around 745 pm Wednesday. Seas 10 ft. - third ebb...strong ebb around 815 am Thursday. Seas 12 ft with breakers possible.
PZZ200 257 Am Pst Wed Mar 3 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Weak high pres over the waters today, but next low pressure and a strong frontal system will cause S to se winds to increase tonight, with gale force winds Thursday. Active weather looks to continue into the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Mill, OR
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location: 45.58, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 031156 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 339 AM PST Wed Mar 3 2021

SYNOPSIS. Mild and mainly dry Spring-like weather will hold through early Thursday before a series of storm systems bring a return to valley rain and mountain snow late in the week into early next week.

SHORT TERM. Today through Friday . Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning reveals weak shortwave ridging over the region. Aside from a few lingering clouds leftover from the previous front stalled out along the north coast, this has resulted in mainly clear skies across the area. Fog has become quite prevalent in the Coast Range valleys and is beginning to form along the river bottoms in the Willamette and lower Columbia River valleys. Light winds today will lead to a somewhat slow dissipation of the fog. However, the early March solar insolation should allow it to lift and scatter out in most locations by midday. This will allow temperatures to rise back into the upper 50s for most inland locations later today.

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning also reveals a large shortwave trough dropping southeastward into the eastern Pacific. Models are in good agreement this system will gradually shift towards the region Thursday into Friday. There should be enough cloud breaks ahead of the main front and attendant band of rain to allow temperatures to climb into the low 60s in the Willamette Valley Thursday. There is still a chance (~30-40%) that rain could push into the Willamette Valley as early as Thursday afternoon per ensemble guidance and result in a cooler day than currently forecast.

GEFS and EPS data suggest the atmospheric river along the leading edge of the shortwave trough will likely fall into the moderate (~500-600 kg/ms) strength atmospheric river category when it makes landfall along the central Oregon coast. Lower (< 500 kg/ms) IVT values are anticipated farther north. The IVT values in this event appear to be driven by the strong low level wind field as opposed to the PW values, which appear likely to remain under one inch. Speaking of the wind field, the strong winds found offshore in the prefrontal environment late Thursday continue to appear unlikely to surface along the coast. As a result, will hold off any wind headlines and let later shifts continue to evaluate the wind threat along the coast.

Based on the above ensemble data and a reanalysis data set, the aforementioned IVT values occur about once every couple of years along the central Oregon coast in a three week time span centered around early March. The lower IVT values anticipated north of Tillamook typically occur at least once between mid February and mid March each year based on a 30 year reanalysis. What makes this event a little more unusual is that the low level flow will be nearly due southerly, which will greatly limit orographic enhancement of precipitation in the Coast Range. So despite the slow moving nature of this ribbon of rain, hydrology concerns remain limited Thursday into Friday. NBM guidance generally keeps the probability of 2" of rain falling in a 24 hour period between Thursday and Friday at values less than 5% in the Willapa Hills and less than 15% at sites in the central Oregon Coast Range. Do think the odds are a bit higher than this given output from some of the latest high resolution model data, but still not expecting significant rains Thursday into Friday. The Grays River continues to be the river of highest concern. While the flow pattern will favor the upper drainage of the Nehalem River, flooding appears unlikely around Vernonia given the modest QPF values anticipated.

As the upper level trough digs farther south Friday, the front will lose support and gradually weaken over the southeastern portions of the CWA and central Oregon late Friday. Snow levels should generally remain near or just above the Cascades passes during the bulk of the heaviest QPF so not expecting too much snow below 4000-5000 feet, but perhaps we will be able to squeak out advisory level accumulations. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Friday night through Tuesday . Models are increasingly coming into agreement weak shortwave ridging will shift across the Pacific Northwest Saturday. This will result in what few light showers are lingering across the area to gradually come to an end.

Models and their ensembles then generally agree the next shortwave trough will dive into the eastern Pacific and push a weakening front into the region Sunday. Guidance generally suggests the upper level trough will likely dig southward before swinging eastward into California late Sunday into Monday. Cooler air aloft moving across the area may keep a few showers going across the area, particularly during the daytime, but there is a decent chance the area could end up mainly dry. Additional shortwave troughs dropping southeastward towards the US West Coast appear likely to continue into the middle part of next week, but timing and whether or not the best mid-upper level dynamics will move squarely across the area or well south of the region remain uncertain. As a result, kept PoPs mainly in the chance to low end likely category with temperatures near to slightly below average. /Neuman

AVIATION. Clear skies and light winds across most of the area is a good setup for radiational fog to develop. Satellite fog product shows fog coverage beginning to develop in the Willamette valley. Fog coverage should continue to expand through the morning hours with fairly widespread IFR to LIFR conditions, particularly south of KSLE. The fog will be shallow so it should dissipate around 20Z. At the coast there is a mix of fog and stratus. A 3500 ft layer from Lincoln City to Astoria developed in the past couple of hours and that should keep fog out of those areas, unless it clears early this morning. Once the fog clears should see a nice VFR day with light offshore developing as the next storm system develops well offshore. May see some fog develop again tonight in favored area like KEUG & KHIO.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . IFR fog and stratus looking more likely this morning from about 13-17Z based on model soundings. Temp- Dewpoint spread 3 degrees F, so will need a little cooling before fog really develops. VFR after the fog lifts through tonight. /mh

MARINE. Seas have subsided closer to model expectation overnight and are under 10 ft so have ended the Small Craft Advisory. Southerly wind increase through the day as the next storm system approaches. Conditions really deteriorate Thursday as a strong but slow moving cold front approaches. High potential for strong southerly gales so have issued a Gale Warning for all marine zones for Thu. Seas will also build back to around 20 ft. There is another system that may continue gale force winds through Thu night but will see what next model runs do. Also will have to monitor for possible storm force winds on Thu for the southern outer zone, PZZ270. Unsettled weather continues through the weekend with possible gale force winds Fri night and again Sat night. /mh

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Gale Warning from 7 AM to 9 PM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Gale Warning from noon to 9 PM PST Thursday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM PST this evening for Columbia River Bar.




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Weather Reporting Stations
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Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi19 minN 01.00 miFog/Mist32°F28°F85%1011.3 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair35°F32°F89%1011.4 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR10 mi19 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist32°F31°F96%1011 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi19 minN 07.00 miFair32°F30°F92%1011.1 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR20 mi19 minN 010.00 miFair32°F29°F88%1011.2 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi19 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist36°F34°F93%1011 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmSW6W8NW7NW8NW5W6W4NW4CalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm4SE4CalmSW4SW5W3W3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3CalmCalmE3SE3
2 days agoSE3Calm4SE3CalmSE5SE5E7SE7SW4NW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE5E4E4E4E3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Wed -- 05:26 AM PST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:11 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:11 AM PST     2.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:11 PM PST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:41 PM PST     1.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.60.50.40.30.30.61.21.721.91.51.10.80.60.50.30.10.20.61.21.51.6

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
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Wed -- 04:02 AM PST     6.99 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:49 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:16 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:56 AM PST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:40 PM PST     5.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:05 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 11:46 PM PST     0.93 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 11:52 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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12.64.66.376.764.93.62.31.20.50.312.54.25.35.65.24.43.52.51.61.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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