Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Mill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:19AMSunset 8:02PM Saturday April 17, 2021 10:04 PM PDT (05:04 UTC) Moonrise 8:28AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 223 Pm Pdt Sat Apr 17 2021
In the main channel.. - general seas...2 to 3 feet through Sunday. - first ebb...around 9 pm Saturday. Seas to 4 feet. - second ebb...around 915 am Saturday. Seas to 4 feet. - third ebb...around 10 pm Sunday. Seas to 3 feet.
PZZ200 223 Pm Pdt Sat Apr 17 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure remains over the coastal waters this weekend into much of next week. Thermally-induced lower pressure will return to northern california and result in strengthening northerly winds early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Mill, OR
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location: 45.58, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 180335 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . updated National Weather Service Portland OR 835 PM PDT Sat Apr 17 2021

. Updated aviation discussion .

SYNOPSIS. An unusually warm and dry stretch of weather for April will likely continue for much of the upcoming week, but there is a decent chance cooler and wetter weather will return towards next weekend.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday night . Water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon reveals an area of upper level high pressure centered over the far northeast Pacific near western Washington and Vancouver Island. A broad shortwave trough encompasses much of the eastern Pacific while another shortwave trough is currently cresting the upper level ridge across northern British Columbia and will slide southward down the east side of the Rockies over the coming days.

Surface observations indicate temperatures have climbed to near 80F along much of the north Oregon and south Washington coastline and across much of the lowlands of interior northwest Oregon and southwest Washington. Expect an additional couple degrees of warming this afternoon with several record high temperatures for April 17th in jeopardy including those at Portland, Hillsboro, Troutdale, Salem and Eugene.

Relative humidities have once again plummeted into the teens and twenties across many interior valley and foothill locations this afternoon. However, pressure gradients have decreased substantially across the area, and as a result, winds have generally remained 10 kt or less. Nonetheless, fire danger will remain elevated through Sunday, particularly for the time of the year as fuels remain unusually dry for this time of the year and relative humidities remain low during the afternoon hours.

Visible satellite imagery or just looking out the window reveals a beautiful, not a cloud in the sky kind of day across most of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington this afternoon. The main exception to this remains along the central coast of Oregon between Florence and Depoe Bay where fog and low clouds continue to hug the coastline. Expect these clouds to spread back onshore between 3-5 PM before gradually spreading northward along the coast overnight. Latest HREF, RAP and NAM guidance suggests the fog and low clouds tied to this southerly wind reversal should reach the mouth of the Columbia River by daybreak and likely spread northward along the Washington coast Sunday morning. Meanwhile, the GFS and UW-WRF are generally much more pessimistic with regards to clouds and keep our coastal areas clear into Sunday morning. Given the former guidance is handling the current fog and low clouds vastly better than the GFS and UW-WRF, opted to trend the cloud cover forecast towards more clouds for the coast through Monday.

Models are in good agreement the area of upper level high pressure currently over the region will weaken this weekend as a lobe of the aforementioned shortwave trough in the eastern Pacific slides eastward towards the Pacific Northwest on Monday. Several members of the GEFS and EPS ensemble systems produce measurable rain across portions of our CWA late Monday into Monday night, particularly our southwestern zones around Lane, Lincoln and Benton Counties. This appears to be in response to these models developing an area of elevated convection due to negative thetae lapse rates between 700- 500mb and large scale lift occurring along the leading edge of a PV anomaly. NBM PoPs are still generally 10% or less across these zones late Monday, but opted to at least put in a slight chance mention of sprinkles given the pattern. The latest operational model soundings do not appear terribly favorable for measurable precipitation reaching the ground so do not see a big reason to argue with the current NBM PoPs. /Neuman

LONG TERM. Tuesday through Friday . Mostly dry and warm weather through the middle of next week as high pressure dominates west of the Rockies. Temperatures will slowly lower around 10-15 degrees through Friday. Within the flow around the high pressure, a shortwave with a weak upper level low will pass over the area Tuesday morning. Some models are showing a brief period of showers but ultimately not expecting a lot of accumulation. This system has eroded over time as well so confidence with it's manifestation is marginal as it easily could be impacted by the dry airmass. The stubborn high pressure and dry air mass looks to start shifting east and being eaten away by a broad area of low pressure dropping down from the north Pacific.

The low has quite a bit of consistency among models even this far out. The main impact this low may bring some long waited precipitation towards the end of the week. The main challenge is the timing and whether or not the incoming low pressure will be deep enough to "push" the high pressure out of the area. -Muessle

AVIATION. A dry air mass will keep inland areas of northwest Oregon and southwest Washington with VFR flight conditions through the next 24 hours. Along the coast winds are expected to switch around to a light south-southwest wind tonight and Sunday, which will result in marine air with low clouds and fog spreading north up the coast. KONP is likely to see IFR conditions developing early tonight by 06Z, then a good chance of IFR conditions persisting through the day Sunday. Further north the chances for IFR conditions in low clouds and fog begin as early as late tonight, but the best chances for IFR conditions reaching KAST don't come until daylight hours Sunday after 16Z.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . VFR conditions for the next 24 hours.

MARINE. Rather benign conditions will continue through the weekend with generally light northwesterly winds across the waters and seas 4 to 5 feet into Sun morning. Near the Oregon coast there is a good chance of a southerly wind reversal as marine stratus and areas of fog push northward Sun morning. Onshore westerly winds are likely Sun afternoon up to 10 kt before turning northwest again late.

Surface high pressure builds northward Monday while thermally induced low pressure returns over northern California early next week. The increased pressure gradient across the coastal waters will result in increasing northerly winds with low end Small Craft Advisory gusts of 25 to 30 kt most likely late Monday through Tuesday. Seas are also likely to climb into the 6 to 8 ft range Tue into Wed and be somewhat choppy. Seas will likely fall to below 5 ft and winds decrease during the latter part of next week. Some weather models suggest that by next weekend a storm system could bring increasing southerly winds and seas next weekend, but confidence in the details, is relatively low at this time. /DDH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 38 mi46 min 53°F1020.6 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi46 min 1021.5 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 68 mi46 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 65°F 54°F1021.1 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair64°F39°F40%1019.1 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi71 minESE 410.00 miFair69°F39°F33%1019.4 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR10 mi71 minWNW 410.00 miFair61°F43°F52%1019.5 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi71 minWNW 510.00 miFair65°F36°F34%1019.2 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR20 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair67°F37°F33%1019.4 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair68°F35°F30%1019.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
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Sun -- 12:14 AM PDT     1.33 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:49 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:39 AM PDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:14 AM PDT     0.98 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:19 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:59 AM PDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:14 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:58 AM PDT     1.78 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:47 PM PDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:07 PM PDT     0.40 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:01 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:45 PM PDT     0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.310.80.80.910.90.911.31.61.81.61.20.70.40.40.40.40.20.20.40.7

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:47 AM PDT     1.96 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:17 AM PDT     5.48 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:24 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:20 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:13 PM PDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:03 PM PDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:06 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.122.53.64.75.45.454.43.62.71.710.40.20.41.22.23.344.24.13.63.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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