Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cedar Mill, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:41AMSunset 4:29PM Friday December 13, 2019 12:20 AM PST (08:20 UTC) Moonrise 6:04PMMoonset 9:09AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 311 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
In the main channel.. - general seas...11 to 13 ft building Thursday overnight to 14 to 16 ft through Friday evening, then easing to 10 to 12 ft. - first ebb...very strong around 445 pm Thursday. Seas near 16 ft with breakers. - second ebb...around 515 am Friday. Seas near 18 ft with breakers. - third ebb...very strong around 515 pm Friday. Seas near 19 ft with breakers.
PZZ200 311 Pm Pst Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Gusty winds remain behind a cold front through this evening. Seas will remain in the mid to upper teens well into Saturday under a distant trailing swell. A weak surface low pressure will likely move southeastward towards california Saturday before weak high pressure shifts across the waters on Sunday. Offshore flow will likely develop early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cedar Mill, OR
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location: 45.58, -122.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 130545 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 945 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019

Short Term and Aviation discussions updated.

SYNOPSIS. An active weather pattern will continue through Friday as a strong jet stream remains directed at Oregon. Northwest flow aloft this weekend will maintain showery conditions. High pressure returns early next week and then weakens by mid-week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Sunday . Precipitation has turned showery behind today's front, bringing and end to the heavy snow for the South Washington and Northern Oregon Cascades, even as snow levels continue to drop. A surface low will approach the southern Oregon coast tonight and Friday morning, spreading more stratiform rain and snow inland. The northern extent of this precipitation is expected to be limited, though, mainly impacting the Lane County Cascades from a snow perspective, so kept the Winter Storm Warning for that zone only. The previous short term discussion is below. Bowen

Rather active weather pattern today. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed strong zonal flow over the NE Pacific into the Pac NW. A potent jet stream, on the order of 160-180 kt, was aimed at western Oregon. Earlier this morning lightning detection indicated a cluster of lightning strikes over the coastal waters. Another line of convection was observed in Lane County between 17Z and 19Z.

The strong jet stream will remained directed at the forecast area through Friday. The SREF 12-hr calibrated thunderstorm probability output suggests 40-50 percent along the coast north of about KONP through 09Z Fri. The 20 to 30 percent probability contour extends to the Cascade foothills. The HREF-calibrated 4 hour thunder probability indicates a 20 to 30 percent area over much of the Willamette Valley to the Cascades this evening. Past storms have shown rapid movement, generally 35 to 45 kt, with strong outflow wind being the main threat. However, that is not to rule out brief heavy rain resulting in water ponding on roadways.

Snow levels have been slow to descend, but at 21Z the KAST profiler indicated snow levels near or just above 4000 ft. Cascade web cams at Blue Box Summit and at 4700 feet near Mt. Hood Meadows showed snow-covered roads. Snow levels will continue to lower tonight, falling just below the passes. The current Winter Storm Warning looks good, with passes likely picking up around 6 inches of new snow by Friday AM. The snow level drops to around 2500 feet by 12Z Sat, but by then snowfall will have also eased. Cyclonic northwest flow aloft Saturday will maintain unsettled conditions over the area. 12Z models show a 500 mb low over the south Oregon coastal waters Sat afternoon. Cannot rule out the possibility of convection along the coast Sat, but not confident enough to include it in the forecast at this time. High pressure amplifies along 130W Sunday, but enough cyclonic northwest flow aloft remains over the area for some mention of precip.

Of note to beachgoers, the surf today is likely to bring hazardous beach conditions in the form of consistently higher than usual wave run-ups (high surf) and occasional surprising extra long run-ups (sneaker waves). See the High Surf Advisory for more details. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Thursday . Operational models and respective ensembles are in good agreement showing the upper ridge gradually drifting east early next week. The 500 mb cluster analysis based off the 00Z model runs valid 00Z Tue show good agreement with the ridge axis just off the coastline. Will likely need to consider air quality issues early next week, but this does not look like an extended ridging pattern. The ECMWF ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will shift east Wed as an upper level low approaches the north California coast. This results in a return to a split-flow pattern. However, it appears a more consolidated upper level flow returns late next week. Weishaar

AVIATION. Rain is waining with only scattered showers remaining. Low stratus is beginning to fill in along the coast and will continue to do so through around 17Z Fri. Fog around KONP should persist through the day, however it is not expected to become more dense. Meanwhile inland, VFR cigs are widespread and winds are beginning to become lighter, although still generally southwesterly. By around 14Z Fri, winds should go variable which will allow fog to potentially form. Fog is expected to be focused more in the traditional locations like KHIO and the central/southern Willamette Valley. One thing hindering fog formation is the potential for low stratus. If the stratus works its way in by lowering from a VFR deck, then it will insulate the area enough that cooling cannot happen, but cigs will be MVFR. In either case, fog/low stratus should lift around 19Z Fri through around 05Z Sat. Important to note, within these lingering rain showers, there may be some cloud- to-cloud lightning possible through the Willamette Valley. These strikes will be isolated and not expected to be widespread. Will update TAFs as conditions change.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Generally VFR cigs through around 10Z Fri with the chance of fog after 12Z Fri. Similar to above, if the MVFR deck builds in, fog most likely will not. Winds remaining higher could keep fog at bay. Off and on showers are expected to continue through around 20Z Fri. Another chance for fog starts around 04Z Sat as the clearing skies from the day will allow for more cooling at night making conditions prone. -Muessle

MARINE. The primary threat of thunderstorms has moved inland but cannot rule out isolated cells developing tonight. Winds will continue to ease this evening but could still briefly gust around 35 kt near stronger showers and thunderstorms. Seas have definitely increased as expected from a distant swell train originating from a 964 mb low in the gulf of Alaska. Dominant seas are running 15 to 18 ft under a lengthy 16 to 17 second period. Expect seas will slowly ease beginning late tonight but still remaining above 10 feet through at least Saturday afternoon despite high pressure briefly building over the waters.

Low pressure drops west and south of the region Saturday, remaining far enough away to keep winds below Advisory criteria. Wind gusts may lift above 20 kt over the outer waters Tuesday, but seem to have a much better chance when a stronger low approaches. Seas may linger above 10 ft Saturday night and early Sunday, but should then remain less than 10 ft until the weak low approaches Tuesday. After briefly lifting to close to 11 ft, seas then appear to hover around 10 ft through at least Thursday. /JBonk

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA . None.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.Columbia River Bar-coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 38 mi50 min 45°F1020.8 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 61 mi50 min 49°F1021.8 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 68 mi50 min S 4.1 G 8.9 47°F 46°F1019.4 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA6 mi27 minVar 410.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F42°F80%1021.6 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR9 mi27 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F43°F86%1021.8 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR10 mi27 minS 310.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F41°F93%1021.5 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi27 minN 010.00 miLight Rain41°F39°F96%1021.4 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR20 mi27 minSW 810.00 miLight Rain48°F43°F83%1021.9 hPa
Aurora State Airport, OR23 mi27 minS 610.00 miMostly Cloudy47°F43°F86%1022.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------4E445E5E9E7SE4NW5NW7SE7E5SW93S6S33W6SW7E34
1 day ago545E744E7E76E9E9E7E7E5E7E8E86E11E9E7E8E7E6
2 days agoNE54E8NE9Calm4E9SE4--CalmCalm564SE36E8E75E65E746

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:27 AM PST     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:10 AM PST     1.53 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:09 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:38 AM PST     1.06 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 12:39 PM PST     1.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:33 PM PST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:03 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 07:47 PM PST     2.15 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.40.1-0.2-0.10.20.81.31.51.41.21.11.11.110.80.81.11.622.11.91.40.9

Tide / Current Tables for Tillamook, Hoquarten Slough, Oregon
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Tillamook
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:35 AM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:46 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:53 AM PST     1.95 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 09:13 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 01:22 PM PST     7.46 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 06:09 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 09:55 PM PST     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.94.65.65.75.34.53.62.72.122.74.36.27.47.46.85.84.531.60.4-0.4-0.60.1

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.