Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cross Village, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Current conditions overhead are fair with some diurnal CU bubbling at the moment... Lake Huron shadow blatant on visible satellite, with the most agitated CU generally hovering over Leelanau and Benzie counties as temperatures have topped out in the 70s to lower 80s, with cooler conditions in the 50s and 60s near the immediate Lake Huron shore.

Upstream... Deepening surface low pressure over SW MN attm, with attendant warm frontal boundary stretching down the I-90 corridor all the way into northern Ohio. Expecting this front to continue to lift north and eastward, leading to the development of a shower / thunderstorm complex over Wisconsin that will traverse our area early tonight as the warm / occluding front surges through the region. In its wake, the cyclone dry slot will become the dominant feature through the day Friday as enhanced SW flow dominates amid a continuingly pinched pressure gradient.

Forecast Details:

Rest of today: Likely holding dry for most as temps build into the 70s and 80s. Warmest across NW lower (83-86) due to downsloping SE winds. Still monitoring the Grand Traverse Bay area for any sort of development as hi-res guidance still creates a plume of instability that could touch off a storm in the afternoon hours if lake breeze processes can materialize. With the current wind field in place, any storm that develops could easily produce strong winds and hail, but confidence in this occurring remains very low at this juncture.

This evening - Tonight: Thunderstorm complex set to develop across the pond in Wisconsin late this afternoon, initially with a semi- discrete mode. This activity should congeal into a line and march eastward over Lake Michigan. Timing of this storm complex's passage remains less than ideal for us, with waning diurnal instability likely leading to a weakening trend as this feature progresses eastward. That being said, a pool of moisture along / ahead of the front may be able to keep some instability alive across the region.
With steepening mid level lapse rates in excess of 8C/km, this in itself should be enough to at least maintain updrafts through much of the CWA, barring the marine layer over Wisconsin does not eviscerate convective processes as this system moves east. In addition, low level jet support should promote the maintenance of this line of storms over much of Lake Michigan and much of northern Michigan. Instability parameters progged at 750-1500 J/KG.

With deep shear in place, certainly enough to support a severe threat, with the greatest threat favoring west of I-75, with particular focus on the SW CWA (CAD, mbL, FKS), which matches with the latest SPC outlook putting that particular region in the Enhanced Risk (Level 3/5) category for severe storm potential, while the rest of northern lower is in Slight Risk (2/5) and much of the eastern Yoop holds in Marginal Risk (1/5). Primary threats will be damaging straight-line winds, though with those steeper mid-level lapse rates, certainly a hail threat there too. Tornado threat is low but non-zero... in the event that any embedded mesovortices from supercells over Wisconsin can maintain themselves and embed within the line, certainly could see a brief spin-up with the passage of the line. Flooding is of minimal concern with this line of storms, as most areas will receive 30-45 minutes of rainfall, with a fraction of that timeframe being moderate to heave. Most areas will wind up with less than 0.25" of rain tonight if any rainfall is realized.

Friday: Clearing out quite considerably as the cyclonic dry slot moves overhead, though still firmly within the warm sector. Highs spike right back into the 70s and 80s, with NE lower perhaps making a run into the upper 80s via downsloping warming. Pinched pressure gradient will promote excellent mixing with lowered surface dewpoints in the 40s, bringing RHS down into the 20s. With limited rainfall anticipated from tonight's storms, this could lead to elevated fire danger throughout the afternoon Friday. Cold front from the surface low will approach later in the day, perhaps introducing a shower chance across NW lower later in the afternoon, but the bulk of the rain with the cold front will wait until Friday night (see Long Term forecast for more details).

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 244 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Pattern Forecast: Vertically stacked low pressure is expected to be situated over northeast MN at the start of the period Friday evening. Occluded front attendant to this system progged to cross northern MI Friday evening/night with much cooler/below normal temperatures to follow for the weekend. By early next week, low pressure is expected to be pinwheeling across the nation's midsection with remarkably good long range model agreement keeping the vast majority, if not all, associated precip to the south of the forecast area -- leaving dry conditions and near to below normal temperatures locally.

Forecast Details: Aforementioned occluded front is expected to cross west to east across northern Michigan Friday evening/night with occasionally gusty south/southwest winds gradually veering more northwesterly with time during the day Saturday. Bulk of associated additional precip with this system is expected Friday evening/night in the form of showers with some embedded thunderstorms. Some lingering light shower activity likely to percolate through Saturday with falling temperatures and continued occasionally gusty winds giving a rather fall-feel vs. late spring.

Conditions expected to trend drier for Sunday into the start of next week with continues with winds gradually turning more northeast/ easterly early next week as low pressure ramps up well to our southwest. As was alluded to above, there's fairly decent model-to- model and run-to-run consistency keeping the vast majority of associated precipitation displaced to our southwest. Could a rogue shower sneak into far southwestern portions of the forecast area as times through the middle of next week? Sure, but the bulk of Monday - Wednesday timeframe looks dry.

Cooler temperatures expected to prevail for much of the long term with lots of 50s and low 60s for highs. Some frost/freeze concerns as well, especially Sunday/Monday nights.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 743 PM EDT Thu May 15 2025

Watching a couple of things this evening: first is squall line advancing across eastern Wisconsin toward Lake Michigan...likely reaching KMBL around 0200Z...KTVC 0300-0330Z...KPLN 0330Z- 0430Z...and KAPN/KCIU after 0500Z. Gusty winds (likely from the south/southwest) a good bet with this line of storms as they pass through...but should only be a 1-2 hours window for this.
Second thing is sneaky area of fog/St over northern Lake Huron getting pushed toward northeast Lower...and with loss of daytime heating/mixing concerned about an LIFR fog/St deck spreading into KAPN after 0100Z through about the time the line of storms is expected to roll through.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.