Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Maywood Park, OR

SYNOPSIS
Isolated to scattered rain showers continue through today, with an isolated thunderstorm possible north of US-26.
Low chances for low-elevation snow along the Cowlitz Valley early Tuesday morning with travel impacts unlikely. A warmer and wetter pattern midweek will bring widespread rain, with the highest rainfall totals most likely north of US-20, Uncertainty in the placement of heavier rainfall increases this weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...The initial stages of an incoming cold front are beginning to make landfall with showers popping up over the area. Rainfall totals have been minimal thus far, but with the showery nature of the precipitation, will see isolated areas of higher accumulation.
The frontal movement will promote orographically driven rainfall accumulations with the Coast Range and Cascades seeing the highest amounts. The Willamette Valley sits within the rain shadow and will likely see less rain. We are expecting this round of rain to persist through Tuesday. In conjunction with the rain, a cold airmass is moving in from the north as a cold air wrapped low in the Gulf of Alaska drops southward. This cold air will cause snow levels to drop to around 1500-2000 ft today and lower even further overnight into Tuesday closer to 500 ft.
Modeled 850 mb temperatures sit around -5 to -7 deg C which is slightly warmer than previously expected. However, that is cold enough to make sure that precipitation that is produced over the Cascades falls as snow. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon for this specific system.

For the lowlands, things become a bit more complicated as we will need to have the perfect match up of cold air to precipitation...timing will be everything. Currently there remains anywhere from a 10-20% chance of lower elevation accumulating snowfall (below 500 ft) within the Portland- Vancouver Metro Area, and around a 30% chance in the higher elevations like the West Hills. For the Cowlitz County Lowlands, chances for any accumulating snow remains around 40-60% but much lower for 1 inch or more where those probabilities are in the teens. Ultimately, confidence is low on any accumulating snow there. The Coast Range is complicated as well as it sits right along the snow level elevation for the time frame in which we will see the most precipitation. Areas most at risk for advisory level snow (2" or more) remains in the Willapa Hills and the north Oregon Cascades. When looking at the spread of probabilities though, there is anywhere from a 10-60% chance for 2" depending on what model you look at. Highest confidence lies in the peaks of the range, while the valleys and many of the commute ways are right around a 20-40% chance. Higher resolution models are not showing nearly as high of accumulation.

As the low pressure system in the Gulf of Alaska shifts inland over British Columbia, High pressure off of the coast of California will amplify. This pattern shift will usher in warmer air that is associated with a weak atmospheric river.
Precipitation amounts will increase once again but, as has been the trend, just how much we will see and what type is still under evaluation. With the warm air moving in, snow levels will rise to 3500-4000 ft by Wednesday morning isolating any snowfall chances to the Cascades from pass level up. The south Washington Cascades though will hold on to the cold air longer though with snow levels remaining around 2500 ft until Wednesday afternoon.
Based on current guidance from the Warning Prediction Center (WPC) and models, there is an increasing probability for Winter Storm Warning level snowfall on Wednesday - mainly for the south Washington Cascades. The probability of these accumulations is around 30-60% so have issued a Winter Storm Watch at this time.
Confidence is low as again, timing will be everything. Will the heaviest precipitation time up with the lingering cold air or will the warmer airmass move in first and push the precipitation further northward. We will continue to evaluate, but as it stands, the peak potential timeframe for impactful snowfall will be Wednesday morning. Other portions of the Cascades have less than a 10% chance of Warning level snowfall aside from the peaks and resorts.

Wednesday will also see a southerly wind reversal which will bring gusty conditions to the area - especially along the coast.
There remains high uncertainty in exact speeds as it will be driven by the pressure gradient. One thing to note though if looking at some of the models, because we have seen breezy easterly winds over the last month, some models are experiencing what we call a strong "east wind bias". Because of this, forecast wind speeds may be on the high side. For example, in the Columbia River Gorge at Cascade Locks, the mean forecast is a gust of 53 mph, the 25th percentile at 44 mph, and the 75th percentile at 62 mph. However, a southerly wind is very difficult to get into Cascade Locks and therefore getting wind speeds in the 50s will be difficult. Instead have trended towards the 10th percentile for the Columbia River Gorge. -27


LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...Transitioning into later in the week, precipitation will continue with warm air lingering over the area. The bulk of the precipitation will stream to the north with the jet stream. Heavier rain potential remains high on Thursday into Friday where the mean 24-hr precipitation totals ending Friday morning are around range from 2.0-2.5" of precipitation in the south Washington Cascades and 1.5-1.9" along the north Oregon Coast Range. Inland within the Willamette Valley there is anywhere from 1.0-1.25" in Portland to 0.2-0.4" in Eugene. If the atmospheric river that sits over Washington shifts southward, we could see more impactful rain - especially along our more susceptible Coast Range and Willipa Hills rivers.

On Friday, some models are attempting to shift the Atmospheric River further south which puts us in a borderline wet vs dry scenario. In general, the ECMWF favors a wetter solution overall on Thursday night into Friday. It is not clear yet whether the heavier rain will end Thursday night, Friday, Friday night, or Saturday. As such, there is still a very large degree of model spread in regards to total rain amounts. Depending on how quickly precipitation falls over a given watershed or urban area and the duration of precipitation, these higher end solutions could result in some river flooding and urban flooding (however this would represent the worse case scenario with a 10% chance of occurring; HEFS guidance for river flooding backs this up and shows probabilities under 10%, and under 5% for slower- responding rivers). Lower to middle end QPF solutions would result in no hydro concerns at all. As of right now, the most likely outcome is for minimal to no flooding concerns, however this system will need to be monitored closely over the coming days.

Heading into next weekend, uncertainty increases regarding exact temperatures and precipitation amounts. 500 mb heights show two potential scenarios with half of the clusters favoring a wetter solution, and half a drier outcome. The same rings true for a warm vs cooler scenario. An example of this difference lies in Salem where the 10th to 90th percentiles for maximum temperature on Saturday show a range of 49 deg F to 61 deg F...an 11 degree spread. There is less of a discrepancy as you move further north. Sunday though brings even higher uncertainty with the 10th to 90th percentile in Portland ranging from 45 deg F to 61 deg F. In Eugene, the maximum temperature spread ranges from 48 deg F to 69 deg F; nearly a 20 degree difference. This helps show just how much uncertainty lies in the long term forecast.
Ultimately, it comes to how strong the high in the Pacific builds, the jet tracking north or south, and just how much of the warm air we will see. -27

AVIATION
VFR flying conditions likely (75% or higher chances)
to continue at terminals throughout the period. Light rain showers, with highest coverage along the coast and north of KSLE, may briefly restrict vis/cigs to MVFR, but confidence in timing of impacts is too low to include in TAFs. An isolated thunderstorm is also possible to the north of KTMK-KPDX, but terminal impacts are unlikely (<10% chance). Tonight after 06z Tue, there are low chances for low-elevation snow from KKLS northward along the Cowlitz Valley, although light snowfall rates and minimal surface accumulations will limit surface impacts. West winds at 5-10 kt continue through this evening and into tonight, turning out of the south to southwest at 5 kt or less after 06-12z Tue.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR flying conditions likely (80% chance) to persist through the period. Light rain showers may briefly bring MVFR cigs/vis, especially through this afternoon and evening before shower coverage becomes more isolated after 06z Tue. There is a less than 10% chance of an isolated thunderstorm during this same time period, but terminal impacts are very unlikely. West winds of 5-10 kt turn out of the south to southwest at 5 kt or less after 06z Tue. -36

MARINE
Conditions remain elevated in regards to wind as a frontal system in the Gulf of Alaska continues to drop southward. Overall, winds have bounced around quite a bit with gusts ranging from 17-25 kt. Seas have remained steady at 7-9 ft at 13 seconds. This morning we will see a brief lull in winds but seas will quickly build. Combined seas of 9-11 ft are expected this afternoon and will spread to encompass all of the waters. Have expanded the Small Craft Advisory to account for the building seas in the southern and inner waters. The Columbia River Bar has a low probability of being impacted until Tuesday as the ebb reaches 10 ft in the morning.

A secondary low pressure system and accompanying warm front will skirt over Vancouver Island on Wednesday increasing the north-south pressure gradient. A southerly wind reversal is expected and followed by a substantial increase in both sustained winds and gusts. Confidence has decreased slightly in Gale Force Wind potential Wednesday afternoon and evening with the NBM projecting a 30-40% chance for hourly wind gusts to exceed 34 knots during this period. The main time frame of concern looks to be Wednesday afternoon. The overall coverage remains uncertain at this time as it looks to mainly impact the central waters of PZZ252/272. Have decided against issuing a Gale Watch at this time, but there is a very high probability that one may be issued in the coming forecasts.

Seas are likely to respond as well, rising up into the 14-17 ft range at 10-11 seconds which would lead to a Hazardous Seas state. At least a coastal jet is not forecast, but wind gust speeds will hover right around 34-40 kt. Due to stronger winds aloft, they could mix down and areas around the Columbia River Bar have around a 10% chance of wind gusts of 50 kt or greater.
Conditions gradually settle down Thursday through the end of the week but the overall pattern looks to remains active. -27/99

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ126.

WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ211.

Winter Storm Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon for WAZ211.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ251>253-273.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271-272.