Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elgin, OR

DISCUSSION

Strong gusty winds were noted across higher elevation area above 3500 ft in the Simcoe Highlands This Morning, and other than that, gusty winds in the Blue Mt foothills had subsided overnight. As a low/tough and mid level height gradient moves through BC/WA early this morning, a shortwave midlevel ridge will develop for this afternoon and evening across WA and OR.
Cooler temperatures are expected Today in the post cold front air across most of the forecast area, with the exception of the Yakima valley where downsloping winds will have more of an impact on warming temps this afternoon. More broadly breezy winds are expected across the Columbia Basin of Washington This afternoon, with winds going light after sunset. Light rain and snow showers continue across the Cascade Crest Today as well as rain showers in the the Northern Blues amounting to less than a wetting rain.

Winds remain light over most lower elevations Monday afternoon with gusts reaching 20 to 30 mph range in the higher mountain zones. Being a progressive pattern. The next deep upper low rotates toward the BC/AK coast late Monday into Monday Night, dragging an elongated vorticity lobe/upper tough across into the PAC NW and across the Inland Northwest Monday Night through early Tuesday morning. The onset for precipitation will be gradually early to late Monday afternoon, and by mid evening Monday, the 6 hourly based REFS probability matched mean QPF would have wetting rains over the eastern slopes of the Cascades (WA and OR), as well as the northern Blue Mountains. This system again is followed by short timed upper ridging on Tuesday and increasingly southwest flow aloft developing though weekend as a deep eastern pacific trough is carved out by the ensembles. Plenty of agreement between the EC and GFS systems with respect to this synoptic pattern by the weekend, in the general placement of a deep cutoff low/trough off of he the PAC NW coast. How the mesoscale feature resolve into early next week is where a high amount of uncertainty lies in strength and timing of the the shortwaves and resultant precipitation.
However from Friday onward into early next week does look to be a wet period, with widespread 20 to 40 percent chances for rains in the lower elevations, and higher probabilities for the mountain zones. Snow levels are generally above 5000 ft AGL for the Cascades and 7000 ft for the the Eastern Mountains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail throughout the TAF period for all sites. Showers will likely (50-75% chance) begin to taper off for KDLS within the next 2 hours. Showers are also likely (40-60% chance) for KPDT and KALW later this morning from 15-18Z. Sustained winds are expected to stay under 10kts for most sites with the exception of KDLS and KPDT (which are currently gusting above 15 kts but are expected to weaken throughout the morning) as well as KPSC which is expected to see gusty winds alongside the showers for KPDT/KALW.

Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs
PDT 58 39 57 42 / 50 10 20 50 ALW 57 43 55 46 / 70 0 10 80 PSC 62 37 55 38 / 10 0 30 50 YKM 59 35 55 37 / 0 10 30 60 HRI 60 38 56 39 / 20 10 20 30 ELN 50 28 49 31 / 30 10 40 70 RDM 54 31 59 36 / 10 0 40 10 LGD 52 37 57 39 / 50 10 20 70 GCD 55 35 60 37 / 20 10 20 40 DLS 58 41 55 44 / 20 10 60 80

PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WA...None.
OR...None.