Monday, October14, 2019

Marine Weather and Tides
Minnehaha, WA

Version 3.4
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at Allen

Sunrise 7:24AMSunset 6:28PM Monday October 14, 2019 4:13 AM PDT (11:13 UTC) Moonrise 6:19PMMoonset 7:02AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 230 Am Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 5 ft tonight then 4 ft this afternoon through Tue morning. - first ebb...around 545 am this morning. Seas to 7 ft. - second ebb...around 6 pm Monday. Seas to 6 ft. - third ebb...around 615 am Tue. Seas to 5 ft.
PZZ200 230 Am Pdt Mon Oct 14 2019
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure will remain over the through Mon evening. The first in a series of frontal systems will move through the waters Tue afternoon. Stronger fronts will follow the latter half of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnehaha, WA
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location: 45.62, -122.67     debug

Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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Fxus66 kpqr 141021
area forecast discussion
national weather service portland or
321 am pdt Mon oct 14 2019

Synopsis High pressure will lead to dry and seasonable weather
today and most of Tuesday. Morning low clouds and fog will give way
to afternoon sunshine today, with temperatures near seasonal norms.

Offshore flow and increasing high clouds will likely lead to less fog
tonight and Tuesday morning, with a mostly cloudy but mild day on tap
for Tuesday. A pair of approaching pacific frontal systems will
spread rain onshore Tuesday night and Wednesday, and rain may be
locally heavy along the coast and in the higher terrain. This front
will mark a shift toward a much more active wet and blustery weather
pattern which will likely last into the upcoming weekend.

Short term Today through Wednesday... Mainly benign weather is
expected today, though there are some areas of fog that have
developed overnight. Morning fog and low clouds will gradually give
way to increasing sunshine as today progresses, with seasonable
temperatures. High pressure will center itself east of the cascades
tonight, leading to modest offshore flow through Tuesday. This, along
with increasing high clouds associated with an incoming frontal
system, should lead to less fog tonight and Tuesday morning... At
least for the northern half of the forecast area. Despite 850 mb
temps warming by 2-3 deg c, thickening high clouds Tuesday should
keep high temps similar to Monday.

The increasing thickening high clouds will be a sign of changes ahead
as a pair of pacific frontal system approaches the pac NW coast
Tuesday. Models and their ensembles suggest the first front will slow
down while approaching the coast, as a wave of low pressure develops
along the front and lifts n-ne into british columbia. The stronger of
the two frontal systems appears to be the second one, which will be
moving eastward much faster than the first front and should arrive
Wednesday. The main reason for the faster movement of the second
system is the 140 kt+ jet developing today near the southern portion
of the kamchatka peninsula of russia and the western aleutians. So,
expect rain to develop along the coast Tuesday night, then spread
onshore and become heavier going into the day on Wednesday.

This second system will also incorporate moisture and energy from
once-typhoon hagibis which recently made landfall near tokyo, japan.

As a result, GEFS ensembles show a high level of confidence of a
moderate atmospheric river making landfall along the wa northern or
coast Wednesday. This will elevate the risk of heavy rainfall across
the forecast area, especially across SW washington and the
coast higher terrain of NW oregon where 1 to 3 inches of rain are
possible by Thursday morning. Inland valleys will likely receive 0.50
to 1.00 inch of rain during the same time period, with locally higher
amounts in SW washington. With rivers running low due to it being the
early portion of our rainy season, flooding is not expected, though
there may be some localized short-duration issues due to heavy rain
rates, particularly in urban areas with poor drainage.

Another aspect of this system to keep an eye on will be winds along
the coast, as the 06z NAM shows a 50-60 kt southerly coastal jet
descending to 950 mb Wednesday morning. However, gradients appear to
be too easterly for the strongest gusts to move much inland from the
beaches and headlands. For now, it looks like gusts will top out at
40 mph for most coastal areas Wednesday, with exposed terrain and
beaches perhaps seeing a few gusts up to 45-50 mph just ahead of
Wednesday's cold front. Weagle

Long term Wednesday night through Sunday... Models and their
ensembles are in good agreement a series of shortwave troughs will
slide east-southeastward across the pacific northwest during the
second half of the work week. This will result in a multi-day
stretch of wet weather. While no one day looks unusually wet,
rainfall amounts will likely add up over time. Based on the GEFS and
ec, it appears an additional 0.50-2.00" of rain on top of Tuesday
night Wednesday's rain will be possible in the willamette valley
Wednesday night through Saturday with an additional 1-3" along the
coast and an additional 2-5" rain in the coast range and cascades.

Given these rainfall amounts will be spread out over several days,
mainstem river flooding appears unlikely at this point... Even at our
most flood prone rivers including the grays river at rosburg.

Nonetheless, rivers will certainly be on the rise and the weather
will be reminiscent of many past november days.

It should be noted that subtle differences exist between models and
various ensemble members in timing and amplitude of upper level
shortwave troughs so there is still some uncertainty on when showers
will be more or less numerous across the region. Nonetheless, there
is at least some indication Thursday afternoon or evening could see
a spike in rain coverage as an occluding front drops southeastward
into the region. In addition, it appears the region will be on the
edge of the 500mb cold pool Wednesday night and again on Thursday
night or Friday so there will be a risk for a thunderstorm or two
over the northern waters, and perhaps even inland, but there remains
enough uncertainty to leave it at that for now.

Pressure gradients will also be favorable for breezy to windy
conditions along the coast late Wednesday and Thursday, but at this
point models suggest wind fields should be weak enough to
prevent any high wind issues along the coast.

Finally, wet weather may very well continue into Sunday, but models
and their ensembles suggest it's less likely than Saturday so pops
were maintained in the chance to low end likely range per nbm
guidance for now. It should be noted that the some of the recent
operational ec and GFS runs do suggest an atmospheric river riding
up and over the shortwave ridge building across the eastern pacific
could take aim at the pacific northwest late Sunday and beyond so
that will be worth monitoring, particularly given the rain
anticipated to fall this week. Neuman

Aviation WidespreadVFR conditions as of 09z. A few exceptions
include localized MVFR CIGS along the S washington and N oregon
coast and some patchy ifr or lower fog conditions in the coastal
valleys. Satellite imagery shows stratocumulus banking up against
the cascades, with CIGS mainly 035-045. Would expect areas of
sub-vfr conditions through the morning hours due to very weak
surface gradients and surface-based valley inversions. Look for
vfr conditions across the area after 18z mon. There is the
potential for local ifr or worse conditions to return after 07z

Kpdx and approaches...VFR expected through at least 10z tue.

However, cannot rule out ifr between 13z and 17z today due to low
stratus or fog. Weishaar

Marine High pressure to reside over the waters through mon
evening, which will result in wind speeds 15 kt or less. High
pres weakens Mon night into Tue as the first in a series of
frontal systems approaches the waters. Latest model guidance
suggests boundary layer wind speeds reach small craft advisory
levels over the outer waters between 12z and 18z tue. Solid small
craft advisory speeds develop Tue afternoon. The 00z NAM shows
975 mb wind speeds of 35-40 kt across pzz270 Tue afternoon. The
975mb level is a good proxy for peak wind gusts, provided some of
the wind aloft is allowed to mix down to the near-surface layers.

In any event, gales are a possibility Tue afternoon through wed,
otherwise small craft advisory level wind speeds are likely
through much of the upcoming week. The longer range indicates a
quieter pattern developing next weekend.

Seas took awhile to fall below 10 ft, but as of 09z wave heights
were in the 7-9 ft range. Spectral bulletin guidance, hanson
plots and enp wam graphical guidance all in good agreement
indicating 10 ft seas developing over the outer portions of
pzz270 Tue afternoon. Seas continue to build through mid-week,
peaking around 20 ft thu. This will be the highest sea state
since the spring. Models show wave heights gradually subsiding
late in the week and into next weekend. Weishaar

Pqr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Wa... None.

Pz... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 37 mi61 min 58°F1019 hPa
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 66 mi61 min 53°F1018.9 hPa
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 71 mi55 min NNE 4.1 G 6 49°F 58°F1018.2 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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1 day
2 days

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pearson Airfield, WA1 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair41°F37°F89%1018.7 hPa
Portland, Portland International Airport, OR4 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair43°F39°F86%1018.9 hPa
Scappoose Industrial Airpark, OR14 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair39°F37°F96%1018.7 hPa
Portland, Portland-Troutdale Airport, OR15 mi20 minN 010.00 miFair44°F39°F85%1018.7 hPa
Portland-Hillsboro Airport, OR16 mi20 minN 02.50 miFog/Mist35°F34°F96%1018.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KVUO

Wind History from VUO (wind in knots)
Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm53--NW6NW6N5CalmCalmNW3NW3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days ago--CalmCalmNW4W4W6E9

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Washington - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current Tables for Kelley Point, Oregon - IGNORE HEIGHTS
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.