NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS66 KPQR 022130 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 230 PM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Weak low pressure approaching from the Pacific will spread a steady, mainly light rain across SW Washington and NW Oregon today. Precipitation will decrease tonight, but it will likely be well into Tuesday before rain and drizzle finally come to an end. Temperatures rebound slightly Tuesday and Wednesday, but a more significant warming and drying trend will begin Thursday.
Strong high pressure will lead to plenty of sunshine and well-above normal temperatures through Saturday.

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Wednesday night...A weak low pressure system will continue to push into SW Washington and NW Oregon through this evening bringing cloudy and cool conditions with light to moderate rain. While the forcing remains rather weak, total precipitable water amounts remain high, from around 1.2 to 1.6" across the area. RADAR imagery and observations this afternoon show light rain has spread across much of the forecast area while more moderate rainfall has pushed onshore along the north coast. By early Tuesday morning, expect rainfall amounts to be around 0.5 to 1.0 inch along the coast and around 0.25 to 0.75" through the inland valleys, with higher amounts up to 1.5" in the terrain.

The low weakens further and eventually dissipates over western Oregon Tuesday morning. Rain and drizzle will gradually decrease tonight into early Tuesday, with light precipitation mainly lingering in the higher terrain on Tuesday. Strong high pressure then builds into the Pacific NW from the NE Pacific with clearing skies by Tuesday afternoon/evening. This will likely lead to some fog development in the typical valleys Tue night and Wed morning, while marine stratus and chances for drizzle or light rain return along the coast. Lingering clouds will maintain cool temperatures in the 60s to near 70 through Wednesday. The NBM indicates just a 25% chance for normal highs of 70 deg across the Portland metro, up to a 75% chance in the southern Willamette Valley. /DH

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...Strong high pressure will prevail throughout the extended forecast period, slowly weakening over the weekend. Dry northerly flow and 500 mb heights climbing through the 580s decameters will continue to support a significant warming trend Thursday, and this warming trend will get a bit of a boost from offshore flow Thursday and especially Friday. The offshore flow will carry warm temperatures all the way to the coast, so anyone in the lowlands - coast or inland - have a good chance of reaching the 80s Thursday through Saturday. This may flirt with records, but most high temperature records are still closer to 90 degrees. NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 25-40% chance of the Willamette Valley reaching 80 degrees Thursday, with a 50-80% chance Friday and Saturday. The upper level jet then is likely to return early next week with around 80-90% of ensemble members showing precipitation by Monday night. DH/Weagle

AVIATION
Front from the NW has begun to move onshore this afternoon, and is quickly pushing inland, expected to reach the Cascades tonight. Flight conditions have deteriorated, with widespread lower MVFR and IFR along the coast with rain and drizzle. These lower CIGS and rain will push inland for the afternoon and evening, with widespread MVFR across much of the region, lasting well into tonight. Once the front shifts across the region, precipitation will become showery and last through tonight into early Tuesday morning.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR cigs and vis as rain/drizzle increases. Rain turning to showers in the evening, around 00Z Tuesday. MVFR cigs will persist tonight into early Tuesday morning. /JH

MARINE
As the frontal system passes through our region, winds will remain 10-15 kt as the pressure gradients does not look strong. Seas today into early Tue will be a mix of two fetches: both from the W-NW, but one with period of 9 sec and the other around 17 sec. This will make for minor potential of sneaker waves, so use extra caution if in/near the surf zone today through early Tue.

High pressure will rebuild across the region Tue, and persist through rest of the week. High pressure will build inland towards Thu and Fri, with thermal trough along the coast. As such, may have periods of east to northeast winds along the coastline at that time. Seas 4 to 7 ft as main fetch remains from the W-NW.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Falcon to Cape Foulweather OR out 10 NM.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Vancouver
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:21 AM PDT     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:06 AM PDT     1.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:22 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 05:28 PM PDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:49 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:28 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:02 PM PDT     1.93 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Portland, OR,