Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Odell, OR

SYNOPSIS
Persistent onshore flow will bring near-average temperatures with varying degrees of morning clouds and afternoon sunshine for much of the next week. A series of weak fronts will bring notable chances for light rain and drizzle to portions of the Washington and north Oregon coasts today and this weekend, while Friday is likely to be the warmest day.

DISCUSSION
Now through Monday...The large-scale pattern will remain fairly steady through the next week with the region wedged between upper-level troughing over the Gulf of Alaska and upper-level ridging over the Rockies and Central Plains. In general, the weather locally will be typical for the mid-summer: morning clouds followed by increasing afternoon sunshine, seasonable temperatures, and largely dry conditions, but with some variations as the relative strengths of these two dominant features change.

Today, an upper shortwave passing to the north will tilt the scales in favor of upper troughing, sending front toward the coast resulting in slightly below normal temperatures across the region, namely afternoon highs in the low to mid 60s at the coast and upper 70s to low 80s within inland valleys, as well as chances for light rain or drizzle along the northern Oregon and southern Washington coasts and within coastal terrain. Chances for accumulating rainfall (0.01 inches or more) are less than 10% in Lincoln and Lane Counties, 20-40% in Tillamook and Clatsop Counties, and 50-80% in Pacific County. Inland, chances are lower, only 5-25% from the Portland metro north into the Lower Columbia and Cowlitz Valleys.

Wednesday through Friday, the upper-level ridge will strengthen and retrograde westward into the Great Basin, increasing heights aloft locally and tipping the balance toward warmer and drier weather. Continued onshore flow will limit the likelihood of hazardous heat, but except above-normal high temperatures most likely in the upper 60s to low 70s along the coast and in the mid to upper 80s within inland valleys by Friday. These temperatures result in only Minor HeatRisk across the region, with the chances for Moderate HeatRisk of around 5% along most of the I-5 corridor except 15-45% in the Portland/Vancouver metro, highest in the Tualatin Valley.

By the weekend, there is higher uncertainty in the evolution of the upper-level pattern, but many ensemble members depict more pronounced troughing returning to the Pacific Northwest, favoring cooler temperatures and further chances for rainfall.
At this time, rain chances peak on Saturday along the coast and especially from Lincoln City northward. -36

AVIATION
Through 12z Wednesday...Latest satellite depicts marine stratus entrenched along the coast and beginning to slowly push inland as a weak front traverses the coastal waters. MVFR cigs at coastal terminals are likely to remain in place through the morning, with modest 30-60% chances of falling to IFR levels by 15z Tue as winds turn onshore, before lifting through the afternoon. Light rain showers are most likely along the south WA and far north OR coasts through the mid-afternoon, but terminal impacts are unlikely beyond lowered cigs. Southwest winds rising to 8-12 kt with gusts of 15-20 kt at KAST ahead of the boundary will veer out of the northwest following the frontal passage. Chances increase after 03z Wed for further marine stratus.

At inland terminals, largely VFR conditions are expected through the period. MVFR cigs are most likely (60% chance) at KPDX/KTTD and KEUG after 14-15z Tue as marine stratus makes its way inland through gaps in the coastal terrain. At other terminals, cloud bases above 3 kft remain favored with 30-40% chances of MVFR cigs after 14-15z Tue. Low clouds will tend to mix out by 18-20z Tue. Light southerly winds this morning will rise to 5-10 kt and veer out of the southwest ahead of the boundary, then veer further to the northwest or north following the frontal passage.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Moderate confidence (60% chance) that VFR conditions degrade to MVFR by 14-15z Tue as low marine stratus encroaches inland along the Columbia River, with low clouds then tending to mix out by 18-20z Tue. VFR conditions otherwise prevail as light southerly winds rise to 5-10 kt out of the southwest by midday, then turn northwesterly behind the frontal passage this evening. -36

MARINE
Seas of 4-5 ft per buoy observations are expected to continue with a dominant west to northwest swell at 8-9 seconds and a secondary long-period south-southwesterly swell persisting through much of the week. Light southerly winds early this morning will build and veer out of the north to northwest by this evening behind a weak frontal boundary. Maximum gusts will most likely remain in the 15-20 kt range, however intermittent or isolated gusts to 25 kt may occur during the frontal passage, most likely to the north of Cape Falcon. More typical summertime northerlies will then continue through the remainder of the workweek.

Another weak front looks to traverse the waters early this weekend, after which northwesterly flow will strengthen and veer out of north into early next week as high pressure builds offshore. Confidence in wind gusts of at least 20-25 kt is moderate to high on Sunday, increasing from around 60% west of the mouth of the Columbia to greater than 90% offshore of Florence. Those chances are even higher on Monday, some 90-95% or higher across the coastal waters. The chances for gale-force gusts on Monday are low but not negligible, generally 10-20% south of Cape Foulweather as well as within 10 NM of the coast from Cape Falcon to Cape Foulweather. -36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.