Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Odell, OR

DISCUSSION
Saturday through Friday...A multi-day heat event begins today for NW OR and SW WA as strong upper level high pressure over the far E Pacific begins moving east towards the PacNW coastline. At the surface, a thermal trough west of the Cascades is spreading north from S OR into N OR and will remain in place into Monday morning, introducing offshore flow across the area, which will have an additional warming and drying effect for many locations. Daytime temperatures today are forecast to peak in the upper 80s to low 90s across the interior lowlands and portions of the Coast Range, around 10-15 degrees warmer than yesterday and roughly 15-20 degrees warmer than daily high temperature normals (around 72-74 degrees). The coast will also be warmer than normal, peaking in the mid to upper 70s.

Temperatures rise further and peak on Sunday into Monday as the ridge axis continues shifting east over the coastline. Daytime temperatures are expected in the mid to upper 90s for Sunday and Monday for the interior lowlands and portions of the OR Coast Range with some locations forecast to exceed 100 degrees on Monday. Sunday will the the hottest day for the coast, peaking near 80 degrees due to the location of the ridge axis plus offshore flow. Probabilities for temperatures exceeding 95 degrees are around 70-90% between Salem and Vancouver and 50-70% for the rest of the Willamette Valley on Sunday. There is less than a 5% chance for the Cowlitz Valley lowlands and Gorge. On Monday, probabilities for 95 degrees rise considerably with the NBM showing around a 85-99% chance of in the Willamette Valley and around 40-60% in the Cowlitz Valley.
With Monday being the hottest day in the forecast, there is around a 50-70% chance of temperatures reaching 100 degrees or more between Salem and Portland.

Low temperatures are not expected to provide much relief from the daytime heat Saturday night into Sunday morning through Monday night into Tuesday morning, especially Sunday night into Monday morning. Low temperatures are likely to remain above 60-65 degrees in the interior lowlands and the Coast Range. Low temperatures could even remain above 70 degrees in some locations Sunday night into Monday morning with around a 25% chance for the greater Portland- Vancouver Metro area and Coast range.

Ensemble guidance indicates high pressure continues Tuesday with heights beginning to lower along with 850 mb temperatures, which would allow for lowering temperatures on Tuesday. However, there is uncertainty in the forecast spread of both of these elements, leading to uncertainty in the high temperature for Tuesday. Additionally, it is not uncommon for models to degrade highly amplified ridges such as this one too early in the extended forecast period. There is no robust weather system in the models that is causing the lowering heights, so there is the potential that the high pressure may not break down as much as ensembles indicate on Tuesday. NBM still indicates warm daytime temperatures at least in the upper 80s for the interior lowlands. Ensembles are in good agreement that the surface thermal trough over OR will break down sometime Monday into Tuesday, which combined with the flattening ridge will allow for onshore flow to return. Because of this, Tuesday is not expected to be quite as warm for the coast and Coast Range as previous days, and the SW WA lowlands could be quite cooler than the Willamette Valley. Either way, past heat events have shown that impacts from the heat can continue despite a cool- down, especially since morning low temperatures are expected to remain very warm Tuesday morning.

An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for the greater Portland metro area and western Columbia River Gorge and Heat Advisories for the rest of the region west of the Cascades for 11 AM Sunday through 11 PM Tuesday. The combination of very hot daytime temperatures and warm overnight temperatures will create Moderate to Major HeatRisk across the majority of NW OR and SW WA, excluding the Cascades. This means most of the general population will be susceptible to heat-related illness, especially those without access to air conditioning and those spending extended time outdoors. Additionally, many high and low temperatures could break records with this event. Those records can be seen in the "Climate" section below.

In addition to the heat, the tightening surface pressure gradients associated with the surface thermal trough will lead to breezy offshore winds today and Sunday, especially within the central and southern Willamette Valley in the afternoon and evening hours and the Columbia River Gorge and western Cascade gaps in the evening and overnight hours. Additionally, as daytime temperatures increase, relative humidities will also decrease to near critical levels. This is producing some fire weather concerns in areas with cured grasses and finer fuels Saturday into Monday due to hot, dry, and breezy conditions.
Based on feedback from area partners, fuels are not quite cured enough to consider any Red Flag Warnings at this point, but there is uncertainty on how the fuels will be impacted by the continuous days of dry and hot conditions. Currently, there is around a 15-40% chance of relative humidity being below 25% and winds being greater than 15 mph on Saturday and Sunday. Be aware of potential ignition sources such as vehicle chains dragging on the pavement, hot vehicle components, sparks created by power tools, and cigarette butts as all of these could easily result in the ignition of cured grasses and dry, fine fuels. Live vegetation and larger fuels may not have enough time to dry out prior to the dry and breezy conditions, but this is a variable that is being closely monitored by our State and Federal Fire Partners.

Ensemble guidance indicates the high pressure axis shifts west back over the E Pacific Wednesday into late next week as a strong upper trough digs into the Midwest. However, uncertainty in the strength of the trough leads to uncertainty in the high pressure over the Western US/E Pacific. There is high confidence that temperatures will be quite cooler than Sunday and Monday, but 50-60% of ensemble members still keep just enough high pressure over the region for high temperatures to remain in the low to mid 80s for the interior lowlands. -03/27

AVIATION
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions with clear skies through the TAF period across all terminals. Currently, variable winds around 5 kt or less inland with light offshore winds along the coast. After 15-18z Sat, offshore pressure gradients will tighten and support northerly to northeasterly winds across the region, with gusts up to 20-25 kt at any given terminal. After 03-04z Sun, winds should gradually weaken as pressure gradients ease.

In addition, temperatures between 90 to 100 degrees are forecast across the Willamette Valley Saturday through early next week. Be aware of high density altitude which may reduce aircraft performance.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR with clear skies through the TAF period.
Light northwesterly winds around 5 kt or less turn more northeasterly after 16-18z Sat with gusts up to 20 kt through the afternoon. Winds weaken in the evening after 03z Sun. -03/10

MARINE
Expect a typical summertime pattern to persist into next week as high pressure builds offshore. Diurnal northerly winds will strengthen, peaking each afternoon and evening. Expect winds of 15-25 kt with gusts up to 25-30 kt south of Cape Falcon each afternoon and evening. On Saturday, breezy winds could extend north of Cape Falcon with gusts up to 25 kts. Overnight, wind gusts may fall below Small Craft Criteria for the inner water zones, but still expecting gusts up to 25 kt for the outer waters.
Small Craft Advisory for locations south of Cape Falcon has been extended through 5 AM PDT Monday, and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for zones north of Cape Falcon from 2 PM PDT today through 2 AM PDT Sunday. Seas 4-7 ft at 9-11 seconds persist with a persistent westerly swell.

A very strong ebb current is expected for the Columbia River Bar this morning around 3:30 AM PDT and again Sunday morning around 4:30 AM with seas around 6-7 ft. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued until 6 AM PDT this morning due to this very strong ebb.

Long-range guidance brings a more active weather pattern towards the end of next week, which could result in seas near 10 ft as well as gusts up to 30 kt. However, overall confidence in this pattern change is low at this time. -03

CLIMATE
Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Sunday, June 14

High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int'l 89F (1988) 62F (1985)
Vancouver, WA 93F (1986) 61F (1931)
Hillsboro 96F (1961) 60F (1963)
McMinnville 93F (1986) 59F (1936)
Salem 92F (1961) 59F (1936)
Eugene 92F (1914) 57F (1993)
Astoria 86F (1914) 58F (1972)

Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Monday, June 15

High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int'l 95F (1966) 60F (1969)
Vancouver, WA 95F (1930, 1966) 62F (1961)
Hillsboro 99F (1961) 60F (1963)
McMinnville 96F (1961) 59F (1936)
Salem 100F (1966) 59F (1931)
Eugene 96F (1966) 60F (1961)
Astoria 91F (1966) 58F (1997)

Record high temperatures and warm low temperatures for Tuesday, June 16

High Temperatures: Warm Low Temperatures: Portland Int'l 95F (1958) 60F (2012)
Vancouver, WA 92F (1961) 67F (1966)
Hillsboro 100F (1961) 65F (1961)
McMinnville 98F (1961) 59F (1966)
Salem 97F (1961) 61F (1961)
Eugene 95F (1961) 62F (1961)
Astoria 87F (1958) 59F (1997)

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for ORZ101>103.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ104>108-113>119-121>125.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for ORZ109>112-120.

WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Sunday for WAZ201.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ202>205-208-210.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Tuesday for WAZ206-207-209.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PDT early this morning for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT Sunday for PZZ251-271.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for PZZ252-253-272- 273.