Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wheeler, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Sunday...After yesterday's hot temperatures and broad offshore/easterly flow, expect a switch back to light onshore westerly flow today into the weekend allowing conditions to gradually trend cooler the next few days. Currently, satellite imagery depicts fog and low stratus firmly in place across the coast into the coast range valleys, a sign of moister/cooler oceanic air attempting to surge inland.
While models like the HRRR show this cloud layer struggling to penetrate into the Portland/Vancouver metro southward through the Willamette Valley, this shift in low level flow will be enough to knock inland high temperatures down into the upper 80s to low 90s - a noticeable decrease from yesterday (Wednesday).
Highs at the coast hold in the upper 50s to 60s. As a nice added bonus, the westerly flow should help to keep regional wildfire smoke confined east of the Cascades, a trend likely to persist through the weekend as well. Anticipate comparable temperatures on Friday to that of Thursday although a weak upper-level trough begins to dig into the Pacific Northwest during the afternoon hours which at the very least leads to increasing west winds through the central Columbia River Gorge.

Come Saturday and Sunday both ensemble and deterministic guidance support broad northwesterly flow as a weak upper-level troughing is maintained overhead helping to reinforce cooler conditions and increase morning cloud cover potential - both along the coast and inland. As the marine layer deepens, there is growing support for morning drizzle, particularly along the coast into the west slopes of the coast range. The best window for this looks to be during the Saturday night into Sunday morning time period, although it can't be ruled out Friday night into Saturday morning. The south Washington and north Oregon coasts currently carry the highest relative chance (10-20%) of seeing a few hundredths of an inch, with lower probabilities south of Lincoln City/Newport. High temperatures over the weekend likely hold in the upper 70s to low 80s across the inland valleys, that said, the exact timing of clearing morning cloud cover will modulate these values. If clearing of the morning marine stratus deck is delayed by a few hours, which is sometimes the case (models typically mix out morning clouds too quickly), these values will trend moreso towards the mid to upper 70s - something to keep in mind. -Schuldt

LONG TERM
Monday through Thursday...Looking into early next week, uncertainty rapidly increases regarding the exact placement of future trough amplification over western CONUS and thus chances for light showers/rainfall locally. Ensemble systems and their respective deterministic counterparts are struggling to resolve the progression of an upper-level shortwave running north to south along western B.C. into the Pacific Northwest slated to arrive on Monday. Exploring the 00z ensemble space through cluster analysis shows around 45% of the total ensemble members, and the deterministic ECMWF, depict a shortwave track and eventual amplification far enough west for decent light shower chances across the CWA while the remaining 55% keep it shunted further east leading to a drier solution. In either case, temperatures likely remain a few degrees below normal on Monday. Would like to see another model run or two depicting similar probabilities of the former solution before increasing PoPs on Monday. From there model solutions diverge further with the ECMWF/Canadian favoring continued troughing overhead through Wednesday while the GFS tries to slowly increase upper-level heights. The NBM does favors a gradual warming trend Tuesday into Wednesday, however, due to the aforementioned model uncertain forecast confidence out at day 5-7 is only low to moderate at this time. -Schuldt

AVIATION
Marine stratus still affecting coastal terminals, with an MVFR overcast deck around 1500 ft AGL affecting coastal terminals as of 1630z Thu. Coastal conditions persist through at least 20z Thu, with some clearing at the northern coast (KAST, KTMK). Further south (KONP), there is a 50-60% chance of MVFR conditions persisting throughout the TAF period.

Inland, clear sky VFR conditions throughout the period are expected. Generally west-northwest winds throughout the period, with sustained winds around 5-8 kts throughout the period.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions throughout the period, with more or less clear skies. West northwest winds around 5-8 kts throughout the period. /JLiu

MARINE
Based on satellite imagery and surface observations, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued across all waters including the Columbia River Bar for dense fog reducing visibility to 1 NM or less. Conditions should improve by 1200-1400 Thursday as daytime heating and atmospheric mixing progresses.

A weak surface trough will bring light southerly winds across the waters today, mainly north of Cape Foulweather. By this evening, high pressure will re-build and return northerly to northwesterly winds through next week. The Small Craft Advisory for choppy seas over the outer waters (10-60 NM out) is set to expire at 0500 Thursday. Winds weaken and seas subside further heading into the weekend with minimal impacts expected. -Alviz

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.