Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 8:08 PM Moonrise 7:15 PM   Moonset 4:53 AM

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FXUS66 KPQR 230409 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 908 PM PDT Mon Apr 22 2024

Updated Aviation Discussion

SYNOPSIS
Transient ridging will keep conditions warm and dry through Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. A week cold front passes through the area on Wednesday but precipitation chances are low and remain confined mainly to southwest Washington. A cool and showery weather pattern will begin on Thursday as an upper level trough settles over the area. This trough will then maintain cool and showery conditions through the upcoming weekend.

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday Night...Transient ridging is located across the PNW into western Canada but will quickly shift eastward tonight into early Tuesday. Upper and mid level clouds will increase this evening into the overnight and will keep temps from dropping as far as last night. Lows tonight will be 5-10 degrees warmer than last night, ranging from the low to mid 40s across much of the area and closer to the 50 mark across the Portland/Vancouver metro. Surface heights will increase Tuesday afternoon ahead of a disturbance dropping southeast across the Gulf of Alaska. This will provide some clearing during the day and temperatures rising into the low 60s across the south and central portions of the Willamette Valley, upper 50s to low 60s along the coast and Coast range, and mid 70s for the metro area. The NBM probability of PDX reaching 75 or greater is near 80% with the 80 degrees at the 75th percentile (25% chance of occurring). Conditions will remain dry for most of the area on Wednesday as a disturbance comes on shore across central British Columbia. A weak cold front is set to pass through the area on Wednesday but should only bring an increase in cloud cover and slightly cooler temps. Some precipitation is possible but should remain confined to the Washington zones and the northern Oregon coast and even there, PoPs top out between 10-30%. Wednesday highs across the Willamette Valley top out in the low to mid 60s with mid to upper 50s along the coast. A subtle short wave will rave across the northern Pacific Wednesday and will bring a good chance for rain areawide beginning late Wednesday night. -Batz

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...The subtle shortwave mentioned above will be just off the southern British Columbia shore with a deepening surface low near Vancouver Island. A more potent cold front will be associated with this system and will approach northwest Oregon and southwest Washington through Thursday, eventually coming onshore Thursday night. Ran chances will increase through Thursday and should peak during the afternoon with PoPs near 100%. PoPs remain above 80% into Friday afternoon with PoPs dropping below 50% across the interior valleys Friday night into Saturday. There remains some model spread regarding rainfall totals with this system. The 24 hr probability ending at 5am Friday of 0.25" or greater across the low lands remains around 70-80% and above 90% across the Coast Range and Cascades. The probability of 0.50" during the same time period across the interior valleys is 20-40% and 60-80% across the higher terrain. 48 hr probabilities for 0.50" ending at 5am Saturday are 50- 70% for the Willamette Valley. In general, this system looks like it will bring a good soaking rain to the entire area Thursday through Friday.

Temperatures for the latter half of the week and into the weekend will be on the cooler side due to cloud cover and precipitation. Expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s across the interior valley and low to mid 50s along the coast. Cluster analysis shows most members (~70%) keep zonal flow across the PNW for the first half of the weekend. Agreement for the latter half of the weekend and the beginning of next week degrades, mainly into varying degrees of troughing across western Canada and the PNW. -Batz

AVIATION
High pressure will maintain VFR thresholds with dry conditions at almost all terminals through the entire TAF period.
A weak front will start to impact areas along the coast starting around 14Z Tuesday. Guidance at this time is showing a 10-20% probability of MVFR cigs near KONP starting around 15Z Tuesday through 18Z Tuesday. Then as the front moves closer to the coast there remains around a 10-20% probability for MVFR cigs developing along the coast starting around 23Z Tuesday. Northerly winds will continue to weaken through the overnight hours. Northerly winds return along the coast around 18Z Tuesday through around 03Z Wednesday with gusts up to 20 kt, with northerly/northwesterly winds for inland locations up to 10 kt. The exception for inland locations will likely be around KTTD and possibly near KPDX as easterly winds will likely develop as the aforementioned high pressure will result in a lower level, thermally induced surface trough.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. As it is not maintained locally by the National Weather Service, there is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR thresholds through the entire TAF period with intermittent high clouds, with northerly/northwesterly winds up to 10 kt. Could see brief periods of easterly winds towards the Columbia River Gorge from 18Z Tuesday through 03Z Wednesday.
/42

MARINE
Winds at buoy 46050 continue to be northerly, with winds 20 to 25 kts, gusting to 30 kt. Seas are currently around 7 ft at 11 seconds. Observations at buoy 46050 as of 230 AM PDT show north- northeasterly winds gusting to 25-30 kt with seas around 8-9 ft at 11 seconds. The forecast looks on track, including the current Small Craft Advisory. High pressure over the waters will maintain these gusty northerly winds the rest of this afternoon and evening with gusts to 25-30 kt. Locations south of Cape Falcon have a 30-50% chance of occasional gusts up to 35 kt between 5-10 PM Monday when the pressure gradient is strongest. Due to low confidence in Gales and its potentially sporadic nature, a Gale Warning was not issued.

Monday night to early Tuesday morning, pressure gradients loosen and winds will gradually weaken from north to south. Northerly gusts around 20-25 kt continue south of Cape Falcon Monday night, so the Small Craft Advisory remains for the central and southern waters (PZZ272-73 and PZZ252-53) through mid-morning Tuesday.
Minimal changes to wave heights are expected as the predominate wind wave is from the north and the background swell is from the northwest. Quiet conditions prevail Wednesday before the next system arrives over the waters Thursday. -Alviz/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251-271.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for PZZ252-253-272-273.

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Vancouver
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:04 AM PDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:56 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:31 AM PDT     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:37 PM PDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:08 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:12 PM PDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet

Knappa
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM PDT     8.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:58 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:12 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:17 AM PDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:56 PM PDT     6.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:23 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:05 PM PDT     1.71 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

Full Color Weather Map

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Portland, OR,