Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cascade Locks, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:38AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday December 12, 2019 8:59 PM PST (04:59 UTC) Moonrise 5:05PMMoonset 8:03AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cascade Locks, OR
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location: 45.68, -121.87     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 122339 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 339 PM PST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. An active weather pattern will continue through Friday as a strong jet stream remains directed at Oregon. Significant snow can be expected above the passes through Friday. Northwest flow aloft this weekend will maintain unsettled conditions. High pressure returns early next week and then weakens by mid-week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Sunday . Rather active weather pattern today. Water vapor imagery early this afternoon showed strong zonal flow over the NE Pacific into the Pac NW. A potent jet stream, on the order of 160-180 kt, was aimed at western Oregon. Earlier this morning lightning detection indicated a cluster of lightning strikes over the coastal waters. Another line of convection was observed in Lane County between 17Z and 19Z.

The strong jet stream will remained directed at the forecast area through Friday. The SREF 12-hr calibrated thunderstorm probability output suggests 40-50 percent along the coast north of about KONP through 09Z Fri. The 20 to 30 percent probability contour extends to the Cascade foothills. The HREF-calibrated 4 hour thunder probability indicates a 20 to 30 percent area over much of the Willamette Valley to the Cascades this evening. Past storms have shown rapid movement, generally 35 to 45 kt, with strong outflow wind being the main threat. However, that is not to rule out brief heavy rain resulting in water ponding on roadways.

Snow levels have been slow to descend, but at 21Z the KAST profiler indicated snow levels near or just above 4000 ft. Cascade web cams at Blue Box Summit and at 4700 feet near Mt. Hood Meadows showed snow-covered roads. Snow levels will continue to lower tonight, falling just below the passes. The current Winter Storm Warning looks good, with passes likely picking up around 6 inches of new snow by Friday AM. The snow level drops to around 2500 feet by 12Z Sat, but by then snowfall will have also eased. Cyclonic northwest flow aloft Saturday will maintain unsettled conditions over the area. 12Z models show a 500 mb low over the south Oregon coastal waters Sat afternoon. Cannot rule out the possibility of convection along the coast Sat, but not confident enough to include it in the forecast at this time. High pressure amplifies along 130W Sunday, but enough cyclonic northwest flow aloft remains over the area for some mention of precip.

Of note to beachgoers, the surf today is likely to bring hazardous beach conditions in the form of consistently higher than usual wave run-ups (high surf) and occasional surprising extra long run-ups (sneaker waves). See the High Surf Advisory for more details. Weishaar

LONG TERM. Sunday night through Thursday . Operational models and respective ensembles are in good agreement showing the upper ridge gradually drifting east early next week. The 500 mb cluster analysis based off the 00Z model runs valid 00Z Tue show good agreement with the ridge axis just off the coastline. Will likely need to consider air quality issues early next week, but this does not look like an extended ridging pattern. The ECMWF ensembles suggest the upper level ridge will shift east Wed as an upper level low approaches the north California coast. This results in a return to a split-flow pattern. However, it appears a more consolidated upper level flow returns late next week. Weishaar

AVIATION. The front that has brought significant rain and lightning to the area has all but passed and shifted east. While there will some scattered showers that remain that may reduce visibility at times. VFR conditions will be widespread, lower to MVFR with showers passing through. With the westerly flow, much of the Willamette Valley will be shadowed out and clouds should be limited. Overnight around 09Z Fri, there is a chance of fog formation or low stratus. It will be a bit of a race to see which will develop first - the low MVFR/IFR stratus or fog. If stratus develops, fog should be patchy at best or even just ground fog. If stratus doesn't develop before 12Z Fri, more widespread fog development is possible. Showers will develop again around 18Z Fri, especially along the northern Oregon coast which should aid in eroding any lingering fog. Cigs should return to VFR after 20Z Fri.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Main concern will be varying cigs between MVFR and VFR, but VFR will be the most dominant form. Winds should lessen through the night but still the chance of some stronger winds aloft around 2000 ft AGL. Scattered showers which may reduce visibility at times possible through the early evening. No convective systems expected through the remainder of the period. Expect cigs to drop to MVFR overnight, returning the VFR early Fri morning. -Muessle

MARINE. The primary threat of thunderstorms has moved inland but cannot rule out isolated cells developing tonight. Winds will continue to ease this evening but could still briefly gust around 35 kt near stronger showers and thunderstorms. Seas have definitely increased as expected from a distant swell train originating from a 964 mb low in the gulf of Alaska. Dominant seas are running 15 to 18 ft under a lengthy 16 to 17 second period. Expect seas will slowly ease beginning late tonight but still remaining above 10 feet through at least Saturday afternoon despite high pressure briefly building over the waters.

Low pressure drops west and south of the region Saturday, remaining far enough away to keep winds below Advisory criteria. Wind gusts may lift above 20 kt over the outer waters Tuesday, but seem to have a much better chance when a stronger low approaches. Seas may linger above 10 ft Saturday night and early Sunday, but should then remain less than 10 ft until the weak low approaches Tuesday. After briefly lifting to close to 11 ft, seas then appear to hover around 10 ft through at least Thursday. /JBonk

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . High Surf Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Central Oregon Coast-North Oregon Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for Cascades in Lane County-Northern Oregon Cascades.

WA . High Surf Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for South Washington Coast.

Winter Storm Warning until noon PST Friday for South Washington Cascades.

PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.Columbia River Bar-coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LOPW1 - 9440422 - Longview, WA 65 mi65 min 46°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Longview, WA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KCZK

Wind History from CZK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr24------------------------SW12
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1 day ago53------------------------322SW632SE2E21S2
2 days ago----------------------------1214334434

Tide / Current Tables for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
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Vancouver
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:44 AM PST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:24 AM PST     1.49 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:41 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:06 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:46 AM PST     1.08 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:42 AM PST     1.09 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:47 PM PST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:08 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:02 PM PST     2.12 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.50.2-0.1-0.20.10.71.21.51.41.31.11.11.110.80.711.41.92.11.91.510.7

Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon
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Knappa
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:13 AM PST     7.36 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:47 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:58 AM PST     2.77 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 AM PST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:13 PM PST     9.29 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:28 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:10 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:56 PM PST     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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56.67.37.16.253.93.12.83.34.86.88.59.3986.24.22.30.7-0.3-0.7-01.6

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.