Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stevenson, WA
December 4, 2023 4:13 AM PST (12:13 UTC)
Sunrise 7:31AM Sunset 4:28PM Moonrise 11:39PM Moonset 12:48PM
Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 041138 AAA AFDPQR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 331 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers continue today before yet another atmospheric river will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to the area tonight through at least Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorm chances Wednesday. As such, river flooding and urban flooding will remain a concern through at least Wednesday afternoon. A colder frontal system immediately behind the atmospheric river will bring more rain Thursday, albeit relatively lighter, as well as Cascade snow. Signals indicate the potential for another weaker atmospheric river Friday into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today (Monday) through Wednesday...Radar imagery as of early this morning shows rain showers continuing mainly over the Cascades, Coast Range, and associated foothills with accumulations pretty light, only around a few hundredths of an inch per hour. Most of the rivers that rose rapidly yesterday along with smaller creeks and streams have peaked or are near their peaks and will be lowering through today. Urban flooding concerns have also decreased as widespread rain diminished, though roads will likely remain wet and slippery. This period of limited to no rainfall will be short lived as the next weather system approaches the region. A stationary front currently stalled along the OR/WA border will transition into a warm front later this morning. Showers will increase spatially near and long this boundary this morning as well as over the terrain due to orographics as a cold front approaches, though rain rates will remain fairly limited through this afternoon.
Urban flooding and river flooding concerns will increase again tonight through Tuesday night as yet another atmospheric river (AR) takes aim at southwest WA and northwest OR and brings more moderate to heavy rain to the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for locations west of the Cascades through Wednesday afternoon to cover this threat. The GEFS/EPS continue to suggest this will be a strong atmospheric river with IVT values peaking around 850-900 kg/ms. That being said, the GFS/EURO continue to show very weak synoptic scale and mesoscale forcing. This means rain rates may not get as high as the strength of the AR would suggest, which could result in total rain amounts that are less than expected. Latest forecast has slightly lowered total rain accumulations, though not enough to limit flooding concerns. In addition, confidence is moderate regarding the exact duration of the heaviest rainfall with this system. Right now, most model guidance suggests a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain for 36-48 hours from around late tonight through Tuesday night as the cold front slowly pushes inland and is slated to very slowly move through the region. There remains uncertainty in how long it will take the cold front to move through, with most guidance showing it stalling throughout Tuesday before pushing east of the area sometime on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Post frontal showers will persist through the day Wednesday as the remnants of the AR continue to shift eastward. Will mainly be showery, but will still see additional accumulations. Overall the flow is fairly messy and unorganized, though some bands of increased vorticity advection paired with the region having upper air support from the jet stream indicates thunderstorm potential in the late afternoon and evening, especially along the coast.
Despite the ongoing uncertainty in specifics of the next three days, river levels will already be elevated going into this next AR event. This means river flooding will remain a concern through Wednesday, even if observed rain amounts wind up a bit less than the current forecast. Forecast rain amounts and expected impacts for the system are discussed below in the hydrology discussion. -HEC/TK/Muessle
LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...Thursday a weaker cold front will move in bringing yet another round of showers. This system is not an AR, but rather a true airmass shift. A cold air wrapped low aloft will move over Vancouver Island through the day. This cold front will also bring cooler temperatures in comparison to what we will experience early this week. 850 mb temperatures will be around -3 deg C which will drop daytime temperatures into the 40s for the lowlands and 30s for the mountains. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis indicates uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which will impact the area of heaviest precipitation along the West Coast. Either way, snow levels will be dropping due to colder temperatures, so snow at the passes is likely, though uncertainty remains in exactly how much snow will fall. Latest forecast indicates 6-14 inches of snow above 3000-3500 feet, which is much higher than the previous forecast. NBM v4.1 indicates 50-90% probability of 4+ inches of snow for all of the Cascades from central OR to southern WA. Additionally, it indicates 50-80% probability of 8+ inches of snow and 12+ inches of snow for the Cascades south of Clackamas County and northeastern Skamania County.
On Friday through Saturday, there is a 50-70% probability for another weak to moderate AR based on GEFS/EPS guidance.
However, the pattern is not necessarily "text book" as in that guidance shows a warm airmass converging with a much cooler airmass from the north. Expect precipitation to continue Friday through the weekend, but at this point, confidence is low in specific amounts. -Muessle/HEC
HYDROLOGY
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue through Wednesday, with the heaviest tonight through Tuesday night as a strong atmospheric river aims at southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. This is also when flooding concerns are highest. Additional rain amounts expected between 4am PST Monday and 4am PST Wednesday (48 hour rain totals): 3 to 5 inches along the south Washington coast, north Oregon coast, and central Oregon coast, 3 to 5 inches with localized amounts up to 7.5 inches over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills (highest amounts in higher terrain), 1.25 to 2.5 inches across the interior lowlands of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon (highest from Salem northward), 1 to 7 inches across the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, 0.25 to 1.5 inches for the Lane County Cascades, 2 to 4 inches for the Columbia River Gorge, and 1 to 2 inches for the Upper Hood River Valley.
River levels following the heavy rain yesterday morning have peaked and are lowering. Given the forecast rainfall amounts expected through the middle of the week, river levels will rise again late tonight through Wednesday. Forecasts for most rivers indicate a higher peak than the previous peak Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning since river levels will remain elevated.
Most coastal rivers show a 15-40% chance of reaching minor flood stage at some point within the next 10 days. This includes the Naselle River near Naselle, the Nehalem River near Foss, the Nestucca River near Beaver, the Grays River near Rosburg, and the Siletz River at Siletz. The Wilson River near Tillamook has the best chance of reaching minor flood stage as the probability has increased to 65%. Probabilities for major flooding along coastal rivers are around 15% or less.
Additionally, many other rivers across northwest OR and southwest WA are showing anywhere from a 5-35% chance of reaching at least minor flood stage in the next 10 days, except for the mainstem Columbia and Willamette Rivers where the chance of reaching minor flood stage remains lower at 5% or less. While these probabilities have decreased from previous forecasts, there is the potential for probabilities to increase again if QPF amounts increase with future model runs. To view current and forecast river stages for any river gage location across southwest WA and northwest OR, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr
Lastly, urban flooding is possible Monday night through Wednesday, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Significant ponding of water and localized roadway flooding is expected on roads. Any motorists with travel plans should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. Never drive through flooded roads. -TK/HEC
AVIATION
Observations currently show widespread MVFR digs throughout the coast and Willamette Valley. Rain will return early Monday morning as warm front lifts northward, with IFR/MVFR mix continuing to impact the terminals. Gusty south-southwest winds will also continue to increase 12-18z Mon and persist through much of the period. Easterly Gorge component to surface winds will also bring LLWS concerns to KPDX and KTTD as winds just off the surface remain out of the southwest. Rain and MVFR persists through much of the period, except for locations south and east of a roughly K4S2-K6S2 line, which may see a bit more improvement towards high end MVFR/VFR as heavier rains shift northward during the afternoon.
** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR cigs at the terminals this morning.
Rain will begin to re-intensify around 12z Monday as warm front lifts northwards, with a mix of IFR/MVFR continuing overnight.
Expect LLWS concerns after 12z as surface winds increase out of the ESE but winds off the surface remain out of the SW. LLWS may linger through much of the day, depending on how much surface winds can veer southerly after 18z Mon. Rain and MVFR expected to persist through the end of the period. /JH
MARINE
Gales have redeveloped overnight into Monday morning across the waters. Gales may be prolonged as the tight pressure gradient remains over the waters into Monday night before the front move ashore Tuesday morning. May even see a brief period of storm force winds Monday evening but latest models have backed off slightly on that idea.
Seas approaching 20 ft on Monday. GWES probabilistic guidance shows about a 50% chance for seas exceeding 20 ft Tuesday morning.
There is another batch of swell arriving Tuesday afternoon. GWES probabilistic shows about 90% seas exceed 20 ft, but less than 10% for exceeding 25 ft.
Also with the elevated seas continuing through mid-week, will maintain the threat of sneaker waves along our coast. /JH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 331 AM PST Mon Dec 4 2023
SYNOPSIS
Rain showers continue today before yet another atmospheric river will bring periods of moderate to heavy rain to the area tonight through at least Tuesday night with showers and thunderstorm chances Wednesday. As such, river flooding and urban flooding will remain a concern through at least Wednesday afternoon. A colder frontal system immediately behind the atmospheric river will bring more rain Thursday, albeit relatively lighter, as well as Cascade snow. Signals indicate the potential for another weaker atmospheric river Friday into the weekend.
SHORT TERM
Today (Monday) through Wednesday...Radar imagery as of early this morning shows rain showers continuing mainly over the Cascades, Coast Range, and associated foothills with accumulations pretty light, only around a few hundredths of an inch per hour. Most of the rivers that rose rapidly yesterday along with smaller creeks and streams have peaked or are near their peaks and will be lowering through today. Urban flooding concerns have also decreased as widespread rain diminished, though roads will likely remain wet and slippery. This period of limited to no rainfall will be short lived as the next weather system approaches the region. A stationary front currently stalled along the OR/WA border will transition into a warm front later this morning. Showers will increase spatially near and long this boundary this morning as well as over the terrain due to orographics as a cold front approaches, though rain rates will remain fairly limited through this afternoon.
Urban flooding and river flooding concerns will increase again tonight through Tuesday night as yet another atmospheric river (AR) takes aim at southwest WA and northwest OR and brings more moderate to heavy rain to the area. A Flood Watch remains in effect for locations west of the Cascades through Wednesday afternoon to cover this threat. The GEFS/EPS continue to suggest this will be a strong atmospheric river with IVT values peaking around 850-900 kg/ms. That being said, the GFS/EURO continue to show very weak synoptic scale and mesoscale forcing. This means rain rates may not get as high as the strength of the AR would suggest, which could result in total rain amounts that are less than expected. Latest forecast has slightly lowered total rain accumulations, though not enough to limit flooding concerns. In addition, confidence is moderate regarding the exact duration of the heaviest rainfall with this system. Right now, most model guidance suggests a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain for 36-48 hours from around late tonight through Tuesday night as the cold front slowly pushes inland and is slated to very slowly move through the region. There remains uncertainty in how long it will take the cold front to move through, with most guidance showing it stalling throughout Tuesday before pushing east of the area sometime on Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.
Post frontal showers will persist through the day Wednesday as the remnants of the AR continue to shift eastward. Will mainly be showery, but will still see additional accumulations. Overall the flow is fairly messy and unorganized, though some bands of increased vorticity advection paired with the region having upper air support from the jet stream indicates thunderstorm potential in the late afternoon and evening, especially along the coast.
Despite the ongoing uncertainty in specifics of the next three days, river levels will already be elevated going into this next AR event. This means river flooding will remain a concern through Wednesday, even if observed rain amounts wind up a bit less than the current forecast. Forecast rain amounts and expected impacts for the system are discussed below in the hydrology discussion. -HEC/TK/Muessle
LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...Thursday a weaker cold front will move in bringing yet another round of showers. This system is not an AR, but rather a true airmass shift. A cold air wrapped low aloft will move over Vancouver Island through the day. This cold front will also bring cooler temperatures in comparison to what we will experience early this week. 850 mb temperatures will be around -3 deg C which will drop daytime temperatures into the 40s for the lowlands and 30s for the mountains. WPC 500 mb cluster analysis indicates uncertainty in the exact track of the low, which will impact the area of heaviest precipitation along the West Coast. Either way, snow levels will be dropping due to colder temperatures, so snow at the passes is likely, though uncertainty remains in exactly how much snow will fall. Latest forecast indicates 6-14 inches of snow above 3000-3500 feet, which is much higher than the previous forecast. NBM v4.1 indicates 50-90% probability of 4+ inches of snow for all of the Cascades from central OR to southern WA. Additionally, it indicates 50-80% probability of 8+ inches of snow and 12+ inches of snow for the Cascades south of Clackamas County and northeastern Skamania County.
On Friday through Saturday, there is a 50-70% probability for another weak to moderate AR based on GEFS/EPS guidance.
However, the pattern is not necessarily "text book" as in that guidance shows a warm airmass converging with a much cooler airmass from the north. Expect precipitation to continue Friday through the weekend, but at this point, confidence is low in specific amounts. -Muessle/HEC
HYDROLOGY
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will continue through Wednesday, with the heaviest tonight through Tuesday night as a strong atmospheric river aims at southwest Washington and northwest Oregon. This is also when flooding concerns are highest. Additional rain amounts expected between 4am PST Monday and 4am PST Wednesday (48 hour rain totals): 3 to 5 inches along the south Washington coast, north Oregon coast, and central Oregon coast, 3 to 5 inches with localized amounts up to 7.5 inches over the Coast Range and Willapa Hills (highest amounts in higher terrain), 1.25 to 2.5 inches across the interior lowlands of southwest Washington and northwest Oregon (highest from Salem northward), 1 to 7 inches across the south Washington and north Oregon Cascades, 0.25 to 1.5 inches for the Lane County Cascades, 2 to 4 inches for the Columbia River Gorge, and 1 to 2 inches for the Upper Hood River Valley.
River levels following the heavy rain yesterday morning have peaked and are lowering. Given the forecast rainfall amounts expected through the middle of the week, river levels will rise again late tonight through Wednesday. Forecasts for most rivers indicate a higher peak than the previous peak Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning since river levels will remain elevated.
Most coastal rivers show a 15-40% chance of reaching minor flood stage at some point within the next 10 days. This includes the Naselle River near Naselle, the Nehalem River near Foss, the Nestucca River near Beaver, the Grays River near Rosburg, and the Siletz River at Siletz. The Wilson River near Tillamook has the best chance of reaching minor flood stage as the probability has increased to 65%. Probabilities for major flooding along coastal rivers are around 15% or less.
Additionally, many other rivers across northwest OR and southwest WA are showing anywhere from a 5-35% chance of reaching at least minor flood stage in the next 10 days, except for the mainstem Columbia and Willamette Rivers where the chance of reaching minor flood stage remains lower at 5% or less. While these probabilities have decreased from previous forecasts, there is the potential for probabilities to increase again if QPF amounts increase with future model runs. To view current and forecast river stages for any river gage location across southwest WA and northwest OR, visit https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr
Lastly, urban flooding is possible Monday night through Wednesday, especially in low-lying areas with poor drainage. Significant ponding of water and localized roadway flooding is expected on roads. Any motorists with travel plans should also allow extra time for their commute as hydroplaning will be a risk. Never drive through flooded roads. -TK/HEC
AVIATION
Observations currently show widespread MVFR digs throughout the coast and Willamette Valley. Rain will return early Monday morning as warm front lifts northward, with IFR/MVFR mix continuing to impact the terminals. Gusty south-southwest winds will also continue to increase 12-18z Mon and persist through much of the period. Easterly Gorge component to surface winds will also bring LLWS concerns to KPDX and KTTD as winds just off the surface remain out of the southwest. Rain and MVFR persists through much of the period, except for locations south and east of a roughly K4S2-K6S2 line, which may see a bit more improvement towards high end MVFR/VFR as heavier rains shift northward during the afternoon.
** The new Aviation Weather Center website is live. The new website can be found at aviationweather.gov **
KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR cigs at the terminals this morning.
Rain will begin to re-intensify around 12z Monday as warm front lifts northwards, with a mix of IFR/MVFR continuing overnight.
Expect LLWS concerns after 12z as surface winds increase out of the ESE but winds off the surface remain out of the SW. LLWS may linger through much of the day, depending on how much surface winds can veer southerly after 18z Mon. Rain and MVFR expected to persist through the end of the period. /JH
MARINE
Gales have redeveloped overnight into Monday morning across the waters. Gales may be prolonged as the tight pressure gradient remains over the waters into Monday night before the front move ashore Tuesday morning. May even see a brief period of storm force winds Monday evening but latest models have backed off slightly on that idea.
Seas approaching 20 ft on Monday. GWES probabilistic guidance shows about a 50% chance for seas exceeding 20 ft Tuesday morning.
There is another batch of swell arriving Tuesday afternoon. GWES probabilistic shows about 90% seas exceed 20 ft, but less than 10% for exceeding 25 ft.
Also with the elevated seas continuing through mid-week, will maintain the threat of sneaker waves along our coast. /JH
PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.
WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.
PZ...Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Columbia River Bar.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.
Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Wind History from CZK
(wind in knots)Tide / Current for Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy)
EDIT Weekend mode (on/off) (on/off) Help
Vancouver
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM PST 0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM PST 0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM PST Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST 0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM PST 1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:51 PM PST Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM PST 1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM PST Sunset
Mon -- 05:03 PM PST 1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM PST 0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:41 PM PST Moonrise
Mon -- 11:55 PM PST 1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:56 AM PST 0.64 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:59 AM PST 0.64 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:34 AM PST Sunrise
Mon -- 07:43 AM PST 0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:14 PM PST 1.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:51 PM PST Moonset
Mon -- 03:08 PM PST 1.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:27 PM PST Sunset
Mon -- 05:03 PM PST 1.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM PST 0.78 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:41 PM PST Moonrise
Mon -- 11:55 PM PST 1.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Vancouver, Columbia River, Washington (dubious accuracy), Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 1.2 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 0.7 |
| 4 am |
| 0.6 |
| 5 am |
| 0.6 |
| 6 am |
| 0.5 |
| 7 am |
| 0.3 |
| 8 am |
| 0.2 |
| 9 am |
| 0.4 |
| 10 am |
| 0.8 |
| 11 am |
| 1.2 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 1 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 4 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 5 pm |
| 1.2 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 7 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 8 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.1 |
| 11 pm |
| 1.4 |
Knappa
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM PST 0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM PST 6.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 AM PST Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM PST Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM PST 3.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM PST 6.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:44 PM PST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:56 AM PST 0.90 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:21 AM PST 6.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 AM PST Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM PST Moonset
Mon -- 01:26 PM PST 3.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:28 PM PST Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM PST 6.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:44 PM PST Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.9 |
| 2 am |
| 1.3 |
| 3 am |
| 2.4 |
| 4 am |
| 3.8 |
| 5 am |
| 5.2 |
| 6 am |
| 6.3 |
| 7 am |
| 6.9 |
| 8 am |
| 6.8 |
| 9 am |
| 6.2 |
| 10 am |
| 5.4 |
| 11 am |
| 4.5 |
| 12 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.4 |
| 2 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 3 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 4 pm |
| 5.3 |
| 5 pm |
| 6.1 |
| 6 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 6.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 5.9 |
| 9 pm |
| 5 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.8 |
Portland, OR,
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