Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Stevenson, WA

SHORT TERM
Monday afternoon through Wednesday...Visible satellite imagery shows low stratus and fog socked into the inland valleys Monday afternoon. Expecting stratus to remain into tomorrow morning with limited clearing as high pressure continues building over the PacNW. Ensemble guidance is in strong agreement of high pressure remaining over the region into Wednesday with dry weather continuing under this pattern. Expect cool daytime temperatures inland, only peaking in the low to mid 40s, with temperatures in the 50s along the coast and some higher terrain. Colder overnight temperatures forecast with a 40-60% chance of morning low temperatures reaching 32 degrees or colder. Winds will be light and generally northerly. Locations not covered by clouds could see morning frost and fog. -HEC

LONG TERM
Thursday through Sunday...Ensemble guidance continues to hint at a weak front passing just to the north on Thursday, bringing a 10-30% chance of light rain showers.
Ultimately, any rain would be minimal and mainly limited to the higher terrain as the forcing breaks down as the front reaches the coast and moves inland. NBM indicates only a 10-20% chance of even 0.01 inch of rain Thursday, locally up to 30% over the high Cascades. Conditions could remain too dry and end up with no measurable rainfall outside of the mountains.

Afterwards, cluster guidance shows high confidence in ridging returning this weekend, though moderate confidence in the degree of ridging. Colder overnight temperatures will continue as the passing front ushers in colder air from Canada, but if strong ridging occurs as ~60% of the clusters indicate, even colder overnight temperatures could materialize. NBM guidance shows ~70-80% confidence in low temperatures below 30 degrees Saturday through Monday mornings for most inland locations and a 30-60% chance of temperatures below 25 degrees for Sunday and Monday mornings. NBM indicates this pattern is likely to continue into early next week. -HEC

AVIATION
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Pacific NW today, bringing more stable conditions with northerly flow aloft. This has produced widespread IFR to LIFR conditions across the interior lowlands late this morning with variable VIS and CIGS around FL002 to FL006. Expect conditions to gradually improve through this afternoon with many locations likely becoming VFR by 22-23z. However, northerly flow may keep the stratus deck from scattering out at KEUG. Light offshore flow is expected to allow predominately VFR conditions to persist along the coast today. With the subsidence inversion building tonight, expect another round of fog and low stratus developing across the inland valleys after 06z Tuesday, with freezing fog possible after 12z in more rural locations.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist through at least 20z. Low stratus expected to scatter out by 22z this afternoon with VFR likely through this evening. There is a 40-50% chance of IFR to LIFR conditions returning to the terminal after 08z Tuesday. Generally light northwest winds expected. /DH

MARINE
High pressure will remain in place over the waters through the weekend, resulting persistent northerly flow with winds generally staying under 20 kt. During that time, a northwesterly swell will remain in place with wave heights generally ranging between 6 to 10 ft with a dominant wave period between 13 and 17 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place through 10 AM Monday for all marine zones. Have extended the advisory for the Columbia River Bar through this afternoon for the very strong ebb current around 4 PM. It appears conditions will drop below small craft advisory criteria thereafter and remain below thresholds through Sunday, except Thursday through Thursday night when wind gusts between 20-25 kt appear likely with a weak frontal passage. DH/TK

AVIATION
An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to build over the Pacific NW today, bringing more stable conditions with northerly flow aloft. This has maintained widespread IFR to LIFR conditions across the interior lowlands this afternoon, with variable VIS, and CIGS around FL002 to FL008. Expect conditions to gradually improve later this afternoon/evening, though now appearing less likely to scatter out or clear today. May see periods of low end MVFR until later tonight. With the subsidence inversion building tonight, expect conditions deteriorate again as another round of fog and low stratus develop across the inland valleys after 06z Tuesday, with freezing fog possible after 12z in more rural locations. Light offshore flow is expected to allow predominately VFR conditions to persist along the coast.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Expect IFR to LIFR conditions to persist through at least 22z. Low stratus may lift to low MVFR, with a small chance of clouds scattering to VFR. Conditions likely to return to IFR or LIFR at the terminal after 08z Tuesday.
Generally light northwest winds expected. /DH

MARINE
High pressure remains in place over the waters through the weekend, resulting in persistent northerly flow with winds generally staying under 20 kt. A northwesterly swell will also remain in place with wave heights generally ranging between 6 to 10 ft with a dominant wave period between 13 and 17 seconds. A Small Craft Advisory remains in place for the Columbia River Bar through this afternoon for the very strong ebb current around 4 PM. Seas building to around 8 to 10 ft across the outer coastal waters on Tuesday into Wednesday may need another advisory there.
A weak frontal passage Thursday through Thursday night will likely bring breezier northerly wind with gusts between 20-25, mainly for the outer coastal waters. Otherwise, conditions remain relatively quiet. /DH

BEACH HAZARDS
A longer period swell will lead to an enhanced risk of sneaker waves on area beaches through Monday evening.
Beachgoers should be mindful of conditions in the surf zone and keep their eyes on the ocean as waves may run up farther onto the beach than anticipated at times. This can catch beachgoers off guard, potentially resulting in injury or even death.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for PZZ210.