Wednesday, February24, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 6:17PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 1:05 PM EST (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:07PMMoonset 6:14AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ345 /o.can.kapx.ma.w.0074.000000t0000z-201014t0015z/ 734 Pm Edt Tue Oct 13 2020
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Straits of mackinac... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the warned area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4624 8411 4606 8395 4606 8390 4612 8382 4610 8375 4612 8363 4602 8346 4543 8397 4545 8412 4559 8427 4560 8450 4567 8464 4606 8446 4603 8422 4605 8412 4612 8417 4619 8436 4628 8430 4639 8431 4645 8414 time...mot...loc 2333z 261deg 25kt 4630 8409 4543 8483
LHZ345 Expires:202010132343;;255572 FZUS73 KAPX 132334 MWSAPX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Gaylord MI 734 PM EDT Tue Oct 13 2020 LHZ345-132343-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 241609 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1109 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1109 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Morning composite analysis reveals low amplitude short-wave troughing moving through the western Great Lakes. Attendant 1002 mb surface low is moving through northern/central Lower Michigan, centered over Oscoda as of 15Z, with a cold front that stretches SW down through Illinois and secondary boundary back through Wisconsin. Frontogenetically forced corridor of precipitation along the northern side of the low continues to fall across the tip of the mitt/Straits/eastern Upper Michigan. Axis of heaviest snowfall with this system set up through the tip of the mitt into Mackinac county with 3 to 5 inches of accumulation per reports so far. With warmer surface temps, actually had a bit of rain mixed in through the night near Lake Michigan and minimal snow accumulation across parts of NW Lower Michigan.

Rest of today: Ongoing heavier snowfall through the Straits/northern Lake Huron will diminish over the next couple of hours . and plan is to allow the remaining part of the advisory to expire at noon. But, secondary cold front will slide E/S through the region through the afternoon hours bringing one final corridor of light precip through the CWA and probably some light lake induced precip as low level temps fall off behind the front. But with temps hovering above freezing early on across northern Lower MI, precip may again be a bit mixy although colder air will be chasing the light precip behind the front before the transition to light lake effect.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Impactful weather: Accumulating system snow through this morning. Wet slippery snow making travel hazardous for areas mainly north of M-32, including eastern upper Michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A positively tilted shortwave and associated sfc low were crossing the upper Mississippi valley early this morning, with widespread snow seen around the low pressure, and ahead of it's warm front from nrn WI/western upper Michigan. This snow was spreading eastward into eastern upper and nrn lower Michigan. Forcing was fairly impressive, with DPVA and some upper jet divergence joining with low to mid level FGEN and impressive theta-e convergence on the nose of a 40- 50kt LLJ. Some light rain was falling at times in portions of NW lower Michigan. Upstream, there was another much weaker wave and sfc low seen moving toward srn Manitoba. This system was only producing some patchy light snow.

The snow will continue to expand into areas mainly north of M-72 in nrn lower, including eastern upper Michigan, amd will pick up in intensity for areas north of M-32. Any rain will likely quickly turn over to just snow. Snowfall rates are likely to exceed an inch per hour at times due to the good forcing and FGEN. Pretty much all of the snow accumulation will be completed through this morning, as the deeper moisture and forcing will have shifted east of here. Also, temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 30s will allow a little light rain to be reintroduced to any remnant precipitation. Total snowfall still looks to be 3-6 inches north of M-32, with the maximum snow focused around the Straits region. This still lines up well with the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory, so no headlines changes or alterations. Amounts drop off real quick to the south, with the M-55 corridor only seeing a few tenths, if they can even get that. Latest radar trends suggest this area may get no accumulation.

Behind the departing low pressure, NNW develop over the area and become gusty. These winds will draw in much drier air to nrn Michigan, which will likely result in some decent clearing tonight. And, despite cold advection and growing, but barely marginal, overlake instability, fcst soundings are nowhere near suggesting any lake effect snow development. Looks like, at best, maybe some flurries could float around in the NNW/NW flow regimes, but I even doubt that if the soundings are correct.

The upstream weaker wave and sfc low low trot into Lake Superior late tonight, but any chance of snow with that looks to hold off until Thursday. Maybe a little light snow sneaks into far western sections of Chip/Mack counties in eastern upper by daybreak.

Highs today will be in the upper 30s to some lower 40s in downsloping areas of NE lower. Lows tonight will largely be in the middle to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Friday) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: By early Thursday, weak troughing is expected to be draped overhead with the primary focus through the short term forecast revolving around a weak/subtle shortwave rippling across the region late in the day. This weak disturbance may prove to be enough to kick off some light snow shower activity across northern Michigan before exiting stage right Thursday evening. Beyond this, mid-upper level ridging gradually replaces aforementioned troughing with attendant low-level warm air advection becoming the rule Thursday night through Friday.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Minor snow chances Thursday.

As was alluded to above, the primary focus revolves around a weak disturbance that's expected to quickly race west to east across the forecast area during the day Thursday. While moisture fields look paltry and synoptic forcing leaves a lot to be desired, latest trends continue to suggest at least scattered/light snow shower development across sections of northern lower and eastern upper Michigan before any lingering support exits to the east Thursday evening. Any new accumulation should be minimal - under half an inch - especially given what may be combined with peeks of sunshine and an increasing late-February sun angle aiding to prevent much in the way of accumulation. High temps Thursday ranging from the upper 20s far north the low-mid 30s across northern lower.

Little in the way of sensible weather is expected Thursday night through Friday as mid-upper level ridging folds into the region from the west. Low-level warm air advection should provide a nice surface temperatures response for Friday under a mix of sun and clouds with daytime high temperatures rising into the upper 30s for most.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

Progressive and increasingly amplified upper-levels are expected to result in occasional precip chances through the extended. While no specific window looks more high impact than another at this point, the initial potential for this arrives Saturday and again late Sunday into Sunday night. Additional waves and associated precip chances expected to follow this through the middle of next week. Low confidence prevails in each of these systems, their evolution, and any associated impacts locally, but certainly something to keep an eye on as we head through the end of the week for at least some periods of wintry weather.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning) Issued at 536 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Low pressure will cross nrn Michigan this morning, before departing east later today. This system will continue to result in periods of accumulating snow and fog (mixing with rain at times) and MVFR/IFR conditions today (worst conditions through this morning), for areas mainly along and north of M-32. This will primarily impact PLN/APN. Snow ratios will of 8/11:1 will result in a wet slippery snow. Snowfall rates will likely exceed an inch per hour at times for PLN, with total snowfall 5-6" at PLN, around 2 inches at APN, with a few tenths at TVC/MBL.

The air mass dries out well heading into tonight, with skies expected to be partly cloudy/VFR. This, despite the increasing cold advection and growing overlake instability. Maybe a few flurries will be floating around.

Winds will be light and variable this morning, with gusty NNW winds developing this afternoon into tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

Deepening low pressure in the upper Mississippi valley will cross nrn Michigan this morning, before departing east by this evening. Light and variable winds will increase and become gusty to advisory levels out of the NNW for all nearshores out of the NNW this afternoon into tonight. The pressure gradient relaxes Thursday and Thursday night, allowing winds to drop below advisory levels.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until noon EST today for MIZ016>018- 086>088-095>098. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for LHZ345-346-349. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EST Thursday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EST tonight for LMZ323-341- 342-344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi47 min NNE 14 G 16 30°F 33°F1004.9 hPa30°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi47 min NNE 19 G 21 29°F 35°F1004.5 hPa29°F
WSLM4 40 mi35 min N 16 29°F 1006.8 hPa29°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi47 min N 8 G 11 1005.7 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi47 min N 6 G 11 30°F 1006.1 hPa28°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
W15
G19
W14
G18
W11
G16
W10
G15
W9
G13
W8
G11
W5
W2
SW2
--
SE3
SE4
SE6
SE6
G9
E7
E9
G12
E11
E9
E12
E10
G13
NE13
G17
NE14
G17
NE12
G15
NE12
G15
1 day
ago
W11
G15
W15
G23
SW14
G21
SW18
G23
SW15
G22
SW11
SW15
SW10
G17
SW13
G18
SW13
G21
SW11
G20
SW15
G19
SW11
G16
SW10
G13
SW10
G14
SW12
G16
W12
G16
W10
G14
W10
G13
W11
G15
W12
G15
W12
G19
W13
G18
W14
G18
2 days
ago
SE10
G15
S8
G12
S7
G13
SE10
G14
E6
SE9
SE13
G17
SE16
SE9
G12
SE14
SE9
SE9
SE10
G16
SE8
G12
SE6
G10
E5
E5
E4
--
E2
W6
W7
G11
W12
G16
W11
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi70 minNNE 111.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F93%1004.4 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi70 minNNE 12 G 181.25 miLight Snow32°F32°F100%1005.4 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi71 minNNE 10 G 211.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist31°F28°F89%1005.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLH

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrW15
G20
W13
G19
W11
G17
W11
G16
W10
G15
W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4NE6E6E5E5NE9NE10
G16
NE11
G17
N9N10
1 day agoW11
G18
W10SW14
G18
SW12
G20
SW7SW7S12
G17
SW10
G15
S7
G15
S11
G15
SW9SW10
G16
SW6SW6SW6SW10SW7SW9SW8SW9W7W11
G18
W12
G15
W11
G20
2 days agoSE8SE8SE5SE6SE5SE7SE7SE5SE7SE8
G15
SE3SE10SE9SE6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4W10W12
G16
W9

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.