Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 8:07AMSunset 4:51PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:20 PM EST (00:20 UTC) Moonrise 3:39PMMoonset 5:06AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 335 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots after midnight. Patchy fog early in the evening. Snow showers early in the evening, then chance of snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201912100445;;104653 FZUS53 KAPX 092035 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-100445-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 100019 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 719 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

. Wintry mix today transitions to lake effect snow tonight .

High impact weather potential: Mixed precipitation and snow accumulations today (eastern upper) . accumulating lake effect snow showers tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Weak frontal boundary in the process of stalling out across the area early this morning as mid level becomes southwest . paralleling the lower level front. This deepening southwest flow and overhead height rises a response to shortwave trough digging southeast into the northern Plains. Combination of this enhanced mid level support and strong upper jet core rotating out of the southwest is helping entice cyclogenesis across the central Plains. Pre-system moisture advection just now starting to ramp up into the Ohio Valley into the southern Great Lakes, as evident by expanding area of light showers. More organized and intense area of precipitation, falling in the form of snow, pivoting east across the northern Plains into Minnesota . tied to the main mid level dynamics. Our area currently centered between these two moist axes, with our moisture confined to a much shallower near surface layer, as evident by stratus and patchy fog/mist.

Plains low pressure will continue to organize as it pivots northeast, running along the now stationary baroclinic axis right across the heart of northern lower Michigan this afternoon. Combination of burgeoning warm conveyor belt, development of enhanced deformation with approach of primary mid level support, and tightening of overhead low level thermal gradient all points to a messy mix of precipitation types today. Post-system cold air advection is rather intense tonight, switching any mixed precipitation over to snow and igniting the lake processes once again.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Addressing mixed precipitation and snow amounts today (especially eastern upper Michigan), with concerns changing to lake effect snow potential tonight.

Details: Gradually deepening low pressure cuts right across northern lower Michigan later this morning through the afternoon, exiting stage right by early this evening. Two areas of enhanced forcing and moisture will impact the area as this occurs, with a blossoming warm conveyor belt spreading north into northern lower Michigan quickly this morning, with this warm conveyor belt of moisture eventually merging with increasing deformation forcing across eastern upper Michigan heading through this afternoon. Current dry mid levels will be forced to moisten as a result, allowing precipitation to spread north rather quickly this morning. Warm elevated layer and surface readings largely running a few degrees above freezing should result in much of this falling as just plain rain across northern lower. Scouring out of mid level moisture this afternoon will end the more organized rain threat from southwest to northeast across northern lower, although some drizzle or scattered light showers will likely remain. Saturation takes longest to complete for areas north of bridge, with at least some evidence in guidance derived soundings for a bit of freezing drizzle this morning. Eventually ice nuclei activation will occur with increasing mid level moisture, resulting in more bonafide precipitation this afternoon, with top-down thermal analysis supporting this primarily falling as snow. Snow amounts do not look particularly heavy . on the order of 1 to 2 inches by evening.

Strong cold air advection kicks in quickly behind departing low late this afternoon and evening, changing precipitation over to all snow from northwest to southeast. Primary moisture axis will have pivoted east before this occurs for northern lower Michigan, supporting minimal amounts of "synoptic" snow. However, that cold advection will ignite the lake processes in favored northwest flow areas. Rapid drying at top of lake induced convective layer and evidence of dry low level air should throttle back on lake snow organization some . this despite those lake induced equilibrium levels increasing to over 8kft. "Fluff" factor will definitely compensate some with max omega becoming centered in-cloud and right in prime dendritic growth zone. All told, looking at an additional one to three inches in those favored northwest flow areas by Tuesday morning. In addition, occasionally gusty northwest winds to 25 mph or so may create some pockets of blowing snow and further reduced visibilities, especially in those more open and exposed areas.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday)

High Impact Weather: Accumulating lake effect snow Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Location and intensity of lake effect snow showers through the period.

West northwest flow lake effect snow showers should be ongoing in the morning then with winds slowly backing, bands should become more westerly. With decent moisture (850-700 mb rh of about 70 percent) and excellent over lake instability (lake-850 mb temperature difference of low to mid 20s) do expect decent intensity to a couple of the bands which will likely target the Gaylord and/or Grayling areas. General accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with perhaps some locally higher amounts are expected in the areas targeted by lake effect. Winds continue to back into the southwest Tuesday night while moisture decreases some (mean 850-700 mb rh 50 to 60 percent) so the intensity of the bands should lessen with a general 1 to perhaps 3 inches of accumulation expected. Southwest winds will continue Wednesday morning before shifting back into the west northwest in the afternoon shifting the continued lake effect. Only minor accumulations are expected however as moisture wanes. Not a lot going on Wednesday night with weak high pressure in control before warm advection driven moisture increases snow shower chances on Thursday. It will be colder with temperatures nearly 10 degrees below normal Tuesday and Thursday and a whopping close to 20 degrees below Wednesday.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 335 PM EST Sun Dec 8 2019

High Impact Weather: Mixed precipitation possible Saturday.

Milder air temporarily moves in Friday into Saturday before another shot of cold air plunges into the region Sunday into early next week. A weak system moving through the flow will increase chances for mainly light snow or mixed rain and snow Friday night into Saturday. Perhaps some lake effect snow showers Saturday night into Sunday behind that system as the colder air returns.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

. LIFR ceilings for the next couple hours .

An area of precipitation will cross the region through the evening and early overnight with LIFR/IFR ceilings and IFR/MVFR visibilities, as well as gusty winds. Temperatures will be falling so the precipitation will fall as some freezing drizzle or rain changing over to snow through the evening. Snow later this evening could be heavier at times. Water and slush already on surfaces will be freezing overnight as well.

The precipitation will eventually evolve into lake effect snow showers Tuesday morning with MVFR ceilings. The Tuesday snow showers will be most prevalent on the west side of northern Lower MI and the airports of KTVC/KPLN and KMBL and will be accompanied by gusty west to northwest winds. The winds along with the falling snow could reduce visibilities at times on area runways.

MARINE. Issued at 242 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

Light winds through this morning are expected to become increasingly gusty out of the north, and eventually northwest, this afternoon and overnight as deepening low pressure moves into and out of the area. Current trends support the development of small craft advisory conditions across all of our nearshore waters by later this evening. Winds remain fairly gusty through mid-week as the coldest air of the season overspreads northern Michigan. Rain and snow mixture today transitions to lake effect snow showers tonight through Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 4 PM EST Tuesday for MIZ020>022- 025>028-099. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST Tuesday for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . KF MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi129 min 27°F 37°F993.2 hPa
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi123 min 38°F
WSLM4 40 mi81 min 27°F 37°F994.5 hPa (+0.2)27°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi159 min ESE 5.1 G 8 994 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi129 min 22°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi26 minN 64.00 miFog/Mist26°F25°F97%992.5 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi26 minN 64.00 miFog/Mist27°F27°F100%992.9 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi27 minN 101.50 miLight Snow Fog/Mist28°F26°F92%993.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLH

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmE3E6E8NE4NE15
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1 day agoS8S6S6S4S5S6S9S5S6S9
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2 days agoNW8
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NW7CalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmS5S5S5S4S6S6S4S5S5S5S5S5S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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