Thursday, May13, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 9:03PM Thursday May 13, 2021 9:32 AM EDT (13:32 UTC) Moonrise 6:12AMMoonset 10:07PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 428 Am Edt Thu May 13 2021
Today..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202105131600;;040061 FZUS53 KAPX 130828 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 428 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-131600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 130951 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 551 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

. Quiet weather and warming temperatures .

High Impact Weather Potential: Low afternoon humidity values. Potential for frost/freeze conditions once again tonight.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals sharp mid level ridge axis continuing to fold into the western Great Lakes, stretching from Iowa northeastward through the U.P. and into SE Ontario. Large expanse of sfc high pressure encompasses the western Great Lakes down into the central and southern Plains along with a large pocket fairly dry air across the region (0.21 inch PWAT value on the 00Z APX sounding). Flat out clear skies dominate across the region with just a little bit of cloud cover sneaking into far western Lake Superior overtop the ridge.

Mid level ridge axis will slowly sag southeastward through the state through tonight while associated large expanse of sfc high pressure very slowly begins to drift off to the S/SE. Abundant sunshine/deep layer dry air and mixing will pretty much bring a repeat performance from yesterday. We did have a bit of afternoon high based Cu across the SE part of the CWA which I suppose could happen again. But we are a little drier and warmer aloft compared to Wednesday, so I don't think there will be as much.

Otherwise, with warmer temps and deep mixing into a very dry airmass, afternoon dewpoints/RH values will crash again, likely to even lower values than Wednesday. I have min RH values dropping through the teens across a good portion of interior northern Lower Michigan Winds will be on the lighter side however. lighter than Wednesday . and temps will largely be 70F or less, below critical fire weather values.

Similar story for tonight; mainly clear skies, although model RH guidance suggests we could see a little bit of cloud cover begin to sneak into the northern and western parts of the CWA. But clear skies/light winds/low sfc dewpoints will lead to yet another chilly night with temps in our cold locations possibly dipping below freezing again. Possible we may need yet another round of frost/freeze headlines. But will let day crew again assess that.

SHORT TERM. (Friday through Saturday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

At the start of the period . the nice little ridge bubble that's been giving us the nice weather the last couple days will be moving on out to the southeast along the flow. This will leave us under the influence of a sharp little trough on the very backside of this bubble on Friday . which may bring us a little cloudiness and perhaps precipitation . but it should stay dry in most places. Though there may be a little wiggly action in the flow Saturday . will overall look for heights to rise Saturday night going into the last half of the weekend. Looking a little wider in scope . as shortwave troughing moves through the more or less zonal flow aloft . will look for a niblet of that troughing to get cut off and linger along the west coast for much of the short term.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Precipitation chances through the period . perhaps fire danger concerns?

Given the shortwave moving into the region . will have to watch out for some cloud cover at the very least . which may give way to some precipitation . especially where any additional surface convergence could form . such as a lake breeze in eastern Upper or NE Lower. With overall high pressure in the region . it should be quite well- mixed Friday . perhaps above 800mb or higher . such that precipitation would have to fall through a lot of dry air in the low levels Conditions should be similar Saturday. another well-mixed day with some diurnal cu that could squeeze out some precipitation . if it makes it to the ground, that is.

Given the well-mixed air, it could end up drier and warmer than my forecast the next couple days . which is something to monitor with regard to fire danger concerns. Not sure that we'll reach red flag criteria, given that winds attm look fairly light . but we may want to message the concerns in graphics, anyway, given the DNR's Great Lakes Fire and Fuels page has most of the CWA (most of Michigan, for that matter) in high to very high fire danger . and no appreciable precipitation to diminish that rating in the next couple days. Not to mention it should be an overall nice weekend . which may get people thinking about cleaning up the yard again .

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Will have to keep an eye on some little wiggles in the flow going into Sunday . which could keep some cloud and precipitation chances around . though heights should be on the rise going into the start of next week. That cutoff low will eventually get kicked out of the southwestern US . though model guidance is not yet particularly clear on when this occurs Either way. it does appear to stay warm for a majority of the first half of the week next week.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning) Issued at 551 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

Large area of high pressure will remain in control of northern Michigan's weather for the next few days, providing solid VFR conditions at the terminal sites. Light winds overall, although with some increase during the day with lake breeze wind directions likely to develop at all terminal sites.

MARINE. Issued at 333 AM EDT Thu May 13 2021

Large expanse of high pressure will remain across the region for the next few days, leading to light winds and waves on the Great Lakes with no marine headlines anticipated.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ027>029- 031>035. FROST ADVISORY until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ016>018- 020>026-030-036-041-042-099. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . FEF LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . BA MARINE . BA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi44 min SW 5.1 G 5.1 49°F 47°F1027.6 hPa31°F
45175 21 mi27 min W 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 43°F1 ft1029.6 hPa38°F
45194 21 mi92 min 43°F 43°F1 ft
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi44 min SE 1.9 G 1.9 45°F 43°F1028.2 hPa35°F
45022 40 mi22 min E 3.9 G 5.8 42°F 40°F1030.1 hPa
WSLM4 40 mi32 min S 7 43°F 39°F1029.2 hPa (+0.3)32°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi44 min E 1.9 G 2.9 45°F1028.1 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi44 min SE 1 G 1.9 50°F 43°F1028.4 hPa29°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair52°F32°F47%1028.8 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi37 minWSW 510.00 miFair47°F32°F55%1029.5 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi38 minN 010.00 miFair50°F31°F48%1029.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLH

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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