Sunday, April18, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Cheboygan, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 8:30PM Sunday April 18, 2021 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:37AMMoonset 1:11AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 905 Pm Edt Sat Apr 17 2021
Overnight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202104180915;;716667 FZUS53 KAPX 180105 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 905 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-180915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cheboygan, MI
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location: 45.68, -84.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 180506 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 106 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 905 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Low level ridging continues to slowly build into Michigan late this evening. Weak/moisture-starved upper level trough axis is just upstream . spreading a narrow area of thin cirrus into our state. Residual diurnal CU and spotty light showers continue to slowly diminish with loss of daytime instability as the sun sets this evening. This precip/clouds should be gone within the next couple of hours . leaving only that high/thin cirrus for the remainder of the night. Clear skies and light winds will certainly allow temps to cool below freezing for much of our CWA overnight. Locations of concern continue to be along our Lake Michigan shoreline . specifically for budding agricultural interests. Will definitely maintain ongoing Freezing Warnings for these shoreline counties.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal outside of low temperatures for northwest Lower fruit growing areas.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large area of high based Cu/Sc exploded rather nicely across northeast Lower this afternoon . along with a few spotty very light radar returns (mostly below 30dBz . so maybe a few virga/sprinkle storms south of M-32/east of I-75 with ). cloud bases at or above 6000ft). Earlier high based Sc deck over northwest Lower has mixed out . still some mix of both cloud layers in the Straits region. Large area of Sc advecting southeast across Lake Superior has been able to make zero progress advancing away from the shoreline from Munising eastward as heating over land efficiently chewing away the leading cloud edge . overall cloud coverage is shrinking so will be interesting to see how much remains with at loss of heating. Elongated dynamic PV anomaly shows up in water vapor imagery from extreme western Lake Superior southwest into southeast South Dakota. Mostly just Ci clouds along/ ahead of this feature spreading across Wisconsin/western Upper.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Low temperatures . though with a Freeze Warning already up kind of takes the suspense out of it. Just to reiterate how we as an office are handling this for the time being (because inevitably someone is going to "ask" why): Freeze Warnings only will be issued for Manistee/Benzie/Leelanau/Grand Traverse/ Antrim/Charlevoix counties mainly to provide notice to fruit growers who are concerned about true hard freeze potential which is below 28F (exceedance of threshold accumulated base 50F Growing Degree Days). Frost Advisories (which are issued for forecast lows from 33 to 36F) will wait until normal lows get above that temperature range (current normal lows range from 29 to 33F).

Now that the disclaimer is out of the way . cloud cover over northeast Lower will take some time to thin out given spreading out of cloud tops Watching cloud area over Lake Superior. anything that remains of that would drift into eastern Upper/far northern Lower tonight but current satellite trends suggest there may not be much of that left so will be "conditionally" optimistic. Thin Ci will overspread the forecast area early this evening . so won't be a "perfect" radiational cooling night. Regardless won't make any changes to ongoing headline . most locations away from the immediate shoreline areas expected to get down to or a couple degrees below freezing (Leelanau County may be the one area that stays above freezing . probabilistic low temperature forecasts suggest less than a 30 percent probability of dropping below freezing). Remaining interior areas of eastern Upper/northern Lower expected to see overnight lows slip to or below 30F.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

High impact weather potential: Freeze conditions possible.

Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the Great Lakes region with several different shortwaves/systems pinwheeling through with accompanying "cool shots". Sunday appears to be the best day for chances of the clouds breaking up and seeing some sun with no precipitation chances as a weak area of high pressure and associated dry air nudges into northern Michigan between a couple short wave troughs. A developing clipper system will begin impacting the forecast area by Monday morning as a weak cold front associated with said system approaches the Great Lakes region. This will be a quick moving front and out of the area by Monday evening . leaving colder air on northwesterly winds in it's wake. With -10 to -12C 850mb temperatures, lingering moisture, and lake temperatures around 3C, we can expect lake clouds and even a few lake effect snow showers Monday night into Tuesday. Inversion heights between 4-5kft will suffice for some light to moderate snow bands to form with persistent northwesterly flow for several hours during the overnight and morning hours, but will begin to diminish in intensity and/or break up during the early afternoon hours as the diurnal heating breaks up any bands that have developed. Only minor accumulations (if any) are expected at this time. A mostly northerly flow will continue to usher in cold temperatures over the remainder of the forecast period.

Temperatures Monday and Tuesday are actually below normal for this time of the year . some locations will drop to about 10 degrees below normal, only reaching into the low 40s. Temperatures will be dropping into the mid 20s to low 30s . with the possibility to get colder if clouds diminish and winds stay down in intensity. Will have to protect sensitive vegetation since a lot has blossomed and/or bloomed already . which is way too early, we still have a lot of cold nights in store for the next several weeks. The northwesterly winds Monday behind the aforementioned cold front will be gusty . with gusts of 25-35mph through the afternoon hours and right on into Tuesday morning. The winds will veer a bit to the north and diminish in intensity by Tuesday afternoon.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Long term: High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Broad troughing remains over the Great Lakes region . producing a few chances for precipitation, but no "big storms" at the moment. A large area of surface high pressure may develop over the Mid- Mississippi Valley region and build into northern Michigan . returning some warmer temperatures by the end of the next work week and into next weekend advecting in on southerly flow. Temperatures will generally be in the mid 40s to near 50 during the daytime hours and warm to near 60 by Friday. Overnight temperatures will drop into the mid 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 105 AM EDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Just FEW mid and high level clouds overnight and through Sunday for the NW lower airports, with maybe a little lower level cumulus at APN. A cold front will then be making it's way into the region Sunday night, with a band of showers expected to arrive at the NW lower airports late Sunday night, while some MVFR CIGS will be knocking on the door there by daybreak.

Relatively light winds out of the NW, are expected to lead to lake breezes again this afternoon. Winds will pick up just a little bit out of the south through Sunday night.

MARINE. Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Apr 17 2021

Winds will be a bit gusty from the northwest off Whitefish Bay and into the St Mary's River into this evening. and eventually winds will pickup along the Lake Huron nearshore from the Straits to Thunder Bay. Winds are expected to increase Monday and could see some gales develop within the Lake Superior nearshore zones.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ020-021-025- 026-031-099. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . GALE WATCH from Monday morning through Monday evening for LSZ321- 322.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . SMD MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 17 mi45 min NNW 7 G 8.9 33°F 43°F1012.1 hPa29°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 35 mi45 min NW 7 G 12 33°F 39°F1011.5 hPa31°F
WSLM4 40 mi33 min NW 8 32°F 35°F1013.9 hPa28°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 42 mi45 min WNW 6 G 9.9 1011.9 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 43 mi45 min NW 7 G 9.9 33°F 1012.3 hPa29°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI6 mi68 minNW 410.00 miFair32°F30°F93%1012.9 hPa
Mackinac Island Airport, MI17 mi68 minNNW 610.00 miFair32°F28°F86%1013.2 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI21 mi69 minN 410.00 miFair33°F28°F82%1014 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSLH

Wind History from SLH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmW3SW3N4N8N6W8N9N8N10W11NW8NW4CalmNW3NW5NW3NW4
1 day agoW9NW8NW10
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2 days agoW3NW6NW5W3NW4NW5NW6NW8
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W8NW9NW8W8W7W7W6

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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