Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Manzanita, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Friday Night...Another day of warm temperatures in the mid to upper 80s across the interior lowlands before a short period of closer to average temperatures on Thursday and Friday. High pressure maintains control to start but will gradually give way to an upper level closed low that will move onshore this evening and into the overnight hours.
Wrap around moisture will initially support showers and possibly thunderstorms (10-20% chance) along the Cascade crest of central and northern Oregon this afternoon and evening. As the low moves more overhead tonight, chances west of the crest increase. Chances for measurable precipitation late Wednesday night into Thursday afternoon for locations north highway 20 at 50-80% from south to north. NBM probabilities for 0.25 inches of rainfall have decreased for much of the interior lowlands to 20-30% while chances over the coast range and coast remains around 30-60%. Some hi-res models are depicting showers and thunderstorms developing over the coast range as southeast upslope flow helps convective initiation. Current forecast has a 15-30% for thunderstorms over southwest Washington and northwest Oregon north of highway 20 into Thursday afternoon.

Closer to average temperatures are expected on Thursday as the upper low supports more cloud cover and lower 500 mb heights over the area. Highs in the upper 70s expected across the interior lowlands and low to mid 60s along the coast. Friday will see a 3-5 degree warm-up inland with highs jumping into the low 80s as the upper low lifts northward and 500 mb heights rebound over the region. -19

LONG TERM
Saturday through Tuesday...WPC cluster analysis shows decent agreement in the 500 mb pattern heading into the weekend. Ridging over the central CONUS is expected to rebuild into the PacNW, supporting a warming trend Saturday and into early next week. The interior lowlands can expected highs in the mid to upper 80s on Saturday, building into the low 90s for Sunday and Monday. In this pattern, marine stratus is likely, especially along the coast though it could transition down the Columbia River into the interior lowlands. If cloud cover becomes pervasive, it will have an impact on high temperatures and minimum humidity. There is some spread among the NBM in exact high temperatures, ranging from the mid 80s to upper 90s in the 10th-90th percentiles so could see adjustments moving forward. Moderate HeatRisk is currently forecast across the interior lowlands, including the Cascade foothills, for both of these days. Chances for major HeatRisk are generally 10-30% for the Portland metro and Columbia River Gorge. Warm temperatures are expected to continue into the middle of next week as models continue to anchor the ridge over the CONUS. -19/27

AVIATION
Southerly flow aloft will continue as an upper level low spins offshore. VFR conditions expected to persist inland while marine stratus persists along the coast. Currently MVFR CIGs for both KAST and KONP but could see a brief period of IFR conditions. Conditions are likely to improve toward VFR after 18-19z Wed, especially near KAST, while MVFR probs near KONP persist at around 40-50% through Wed afternoon. Stratus expected to be more widespread tonight. Winds north to Northwest increasing to between 5-10 kt late in the morning.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR expected to continue through the period. Light winds becoming northwest 5-10 kt. -19

MARINE
Benign conditions with a typical summertime pattern expected through the week. Northerly winds 10-15 kt expected with afternoon gusts reaching to around 20 kt each day. Seas could be choppy at times with heights 4-6 feet but could see some 7 foot seas at 8-10 seconds. There is a 30-60% chance for Small Craft Advisory (SCA) criteria winds for all waters Saturday afternoon into Sunday.

A SCA is in effect until 9AM for rough seas within the Columbia River Bar due to a very strong ebb current leading to seas of 6 to 7 ft. Another SCA for strong ebb current and choppy seas Thursday morning from 4 AM to 10 AM. -19

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PDT Thursday for PZZ210.