Nehalem, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nehalem, OR


December 4, 2023 4:15 PM PST (00:15 UTC)
Sunrise 7:33AM   Sunset 4:31PM   Moonrise  11:47PM   Moonset 12:56PM 

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Marine Forecasts
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PZZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Falcon To Cape Foulweather Or Out 10 Nm- 259 Pm Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
.gale warning in effect through Tuesday morning...
.hazardous seas warning in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon...
Tonight..S wind 25 to 30 kt, rising to 30 to 35 kt after midnight. Gusts to 40 kt, becoming 45 kt in the late evening and early morning, then40 kt late tonight. Combined seas 15 ft with a dominant period of 15 seconds. Rain.
Tue..W wind 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 13 ft with a dominant period of 14 seconds in the morning. Rain.
Tue night..S wind 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts to 15 kt early in the evening. Wind waves S 2 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the ne 3 ft at 4 seconds after midnight. SWell W 17 ft at 17 seconds. Rain.
Wed..NW wind 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 13 ft at 15 seconds. Rain.
Wed night..SW wind 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, rising to 20 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt after midnight. Wind waves sw 4 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 12 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu..SW wind 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves W 4 ft at 6 seconds. SWell W 11 ft at 14 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Thu night..NW wind 10 to 15 kt. Gusts to 25 kt. Wind waves nw 3 ft at 5 seconds. SWell W 10 ft at 12 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of tstms.
Fri..SW wind 5 to 10 kt with gusts to 15 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves S 3 ft at 4 seconds. SWell W 10 ft at 11 seconds.
Sat..S wind 20 to 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt, becoming 30 kt. Combined seas 10 ft with a dominant period of 11 seconds.

PZZ200 259 Pm Pst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Strengthening system to persist through Tuesday. Increased southerly winds Monday night through Tuesday. Deepening low pressure system moves from the gulf of alaska over vancouver island on Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nehalem, OR
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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 042335 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 329 PM PST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Light showers continue through this evening until the next atmospheric river arrives tonight and brings moderate to heavy rain through Wednesday. This will increase the risk for minor river and urban flooding through Wednesday afternoon. A colder system will arrive Thursday, bringing additional rain and a return of snow in the Cascades.

SHORT TERM
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Current radar imagery and observations as of 130pm PST show rain showers continuing across our CWA, mostly along the coast, Coast Range, Cascades, and southwest Washington. A warm front is lifting over southern Washington, so the bulk of the precipitation today is falling north of our area. Expect mostly light showers to continue this evening before rain starts to increase again with the next atmospheric river arriving tonight.

River flooding and urban flooding concerns will increase tonight through at least Tuesday night as another atmospheric river (AR) takes aim at southwest WA and northwest OR, bringing more moderate to heavy rain. The GEFS/EPS ensembles still suggest that this will be a strong atmospheric river with IVT values peaking around 850-900 kg/ms. Currently, there is moderate to high confidence that there will be a prolonged period of moderate to heavy rain beginning tonight and lasting for 24-36 hours. However, there is moderate confidence with where the heaviest band of precipitation will be located. Currently, models suggest that the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and south WA Cascades will receive the most rainfall. Some uncertainty remains with exactly how long it will take for the front to push through. Model guidance generally suggests that the front will be slow-moving southward and potentially stall. If it stalls, wherever it stalls may result in some locations receiving more rainfall than forecast (or even less if it doesn't stall over a particular area). Please see the hydrology section below for more information on river/urban flooding and forecast rainfall amounts.

By Wednesday afternoon/evening, rain will begin to lighten as remnants of the AR begin to exit our region. -Alviz/HEC

LONG TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Broad upper level troughing expected to shift over the region on Thursday bringing another round of precipitation and cooler temperatures aloft. A frontal system will likely move across the area on Thursday while snow levels fall from 4000 ft to around 2500-3000 ft by late Thu night. Ensemble 850 mb temperatures drop to around -2 to -4 deg C which would support accumulating snow at Cascade passes. NBM indicates a 70-90% chance of 12 inches of snow at the Willamette and Santiam Passes, with lower chances of 20-30% in the northern Oregon Cascades.

Drier weather expected on Friday as appears likely to have a brief break between weather system. The next frontal system then expected to bring another round of precipitation on Friday. A plume of moisture with increased IVT values likely to be associated with this front, though there remains considerable uncertainty with exactly where the Atmospheric River will take it's aim. Latest models show this to be more directed toward the southern Oregon coast. Snow levels are expected to rise again on Saturday from around 3000 ft to 6000 ft. WPC cluster analysis shows upper level ridging building over the Pacific coast on Sunday, likely trending toward another break between systems. /DH

HYDROLOGY
Next round of heavy rain will push into the region later tonight.As cold front approaches, will see quite moist ribbon shift back to the south/southeast tonight. As such, heavy rain will increase over southwest Washington later this evening, with that band shifting slowly southward after midnight into early Wed.
Rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.33"/hr are expected, but may see brief periods of 0.33 to 0.50 "/hr late tonight into Wed.

Rainfall for next 24 hours: ** Coastal areas 2 to 5 inches ** Coast Range/Willapa Hills 3 to 7 inches ** Inland I-5 Corridor 1 to 3 inches (includes Cowlitz, lower Columbia, Willamette Valley)
** South Washington Cascades/foothills 2 to 6 inches ** Western Columbia Gorge 2 to 4 inches ** North Oregon Cascades/foothills 2 to 5 inches ** Lane County Cascades/foothills 1 to 3 inches ** Mid-Columbia Gorge/Hood River Valley 0.75 to 2 inches

With all this new rainfall, many rivers will be on the rise again, with many of those draining the Coast Range and Willapa Hills being of most concern reaching flood stage on Wednesday. This includes the Grays, Naselle, Nehalem, Nestucca, Wilson, and Siletz. With higher seas at the bays/estuaries, any river may see high water levels due to backing up of water during high tides. Current Flood Watch remains in effect through Wednesday evening.

On the other hand, many of the smaller streams and creeks will rise quickly later tonight into Wed, with some flooding expected. Areas with poor drainage, such as railroad crossings and underpasses, as well as areas with leaf-clogged drains, will see significant ponding of water. An Small Stream and Urban Flood Advisory is in effect through Wed evening as well. /Rockey

AVIATION
Preliminary 00Z TAFs: Satellite shows the atmospheric river just to the north, though the winds have already begun to kick in. Winds have trended higher than expected so have updated TAFs to cover that. In general, will see the initial stages of the winds with gusts to 25 kt, then quickly increase with gusts up to 35 kt inland. Along the coast, gusts up to 40 kt, and even 45 kt are not out of the question. At this point, the 90th percentile wind gusts (the highest end) are forecast to be around 45 kt at KAST, 50 kt around KONP, 35 kt at KPDX, and 30 kt at KCVO. Will say that I trended on the higher end of these wind speeds in the general forecast due to the pattern's performance thus far. At 1000-2000 ft, winds are around 45 kt, and at 3000-4000 kt closer to 55 kt.

CIGs are less of a concern about drastic drops to IFR levels.
Rain rates will be high enough to potentially cause some pooling water on area runways or lower lying areas around terminals. Winds will be southerly, and will amplify after 05Z Tuesday.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...MVFR with heavy rain and gusty winds over the next 24 hours. Winds will be highest around 02-12Z with the atmospheric river passage. Winds will be from the south which could cause some directional based wind shear, however meteorologically this is not a wind shear scenario. Winds will be from the south early on, then transition to the southwest. Above 1000 ft AGL, wind speeds are around 45 kt. If there is enough mixing, could see this winds mix to the surface. Rain will lower visibility at times, though expecting to remain at MVFR levels.
-Muessle

MARINE
The atmospheric river (AR) that is the main weather maker for the next 24-48 hours is positioned over northern Washington. It will slowly shift southward overnight into Tuesday which will increase winds and seas. Winds currently are around 45 kt at buoy 46050, with similar speeds in the nearshore waters based on coastline observations. Will see these winds persist through Tuesday morning, then ease behind the AR. The gale warning remains in effect through Tuesday morning for winds.

Conditions will become showery behind the system. Each shower will bring periods of breezy winds. Seas will remain around 12-15 ft through the next several days with a brief lull late tonight.
However, a dropping low pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska will coincide with the post frontal environment causing winds to shift to the west. The westerly wind, when combined with the westerly long range swell, will once again cause seas to build to around 18 ft by late Tuesday/early Wednesday. These seas will coincide with a long period of 15-18 seconds. Will experience hazardous seas behind the front.

In the long term, yet another system approaches from the north, but this time a cold front. This cold front will cause winds to intensify once more but seas will be unaffected. -Muessle

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Cascade Foothills in

Lane County-Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Central Oregon Coast-Central Willamette Valley-Coast Range of Northwest Oregon-Greater Portland Metro Area-Lower Columbia- North Oregon Coast-Northern Oregon Cascade Foothills-South Willamette Valley.

WA...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Greater Vancouver Area-I-5 Corridor in Cowlitz County-South Washington Cascade Foothills-South Washington Coast-Willapa Hills.

PZ...Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Cape Falcon OR out 10 NM.

Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 10 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Gale Warning until 8 AM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.

Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 4 PM PST Tuesday for Columbia River Bar.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
46278 12 mi45 min 55°F 53°F17 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 12 mi57 min 52°F29.99
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 37 mi49 min 53°F16 ft

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Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KTMK TILLAMOOK,OR 21 sm20 minS 10G164 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 61°F61°F100%29.98

Wind History from TMK
(wind in knots)


Tide / Current for Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon
   
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Nehalem
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Mon -- 12:08 AM PST     0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM PST     6.03 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:39 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:56 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 12:57 PM PST     2.89 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:31 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:20 PM PST     5.49 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:46 PM PST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nehalem, Nehalem River, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.9
2
am
1.7
3
am
2.9
4
am
4.1
5
am
5.2
6
am
5.9
7
am
6
8
am
5.7
9
am
5.1
10
am
4.3
11
am
3.6
12
pm
3.1
1
pm
2.9
2
pm
3.2
3
pm
4
4
pm
4.9
5
pm
5.5
6
pm
5.4
7
pm
5
8
pm
4.4
9
pm
3.5
10
pm
2.6
11
pm
1.7



Tide / Current for Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon
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Barview
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Mon -- 06:10 AM PST     6.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:57 AM PST     3.55 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 12:56 PM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:32 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:45 PM PST     5.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 09:51 PM PST     Last Quarter
Mon -- 11:47 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:57 PM PST     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Barview, Tillamook Bay, Oregon, Tide feet
12
am
1
1
am
1.7
2
am
2.9
3
am
4.1
4
am
5.2
5
am
6
6
am
6.3
7
am
6.2
8
am
5.6
9
am
4.9
10
am
4.2
11
am
3.7
12
pm
3.5
1
pm
3.8
2
pm
4.4
3
pm
5.1
4
pm
5.6
5
pm
5.7
6
pm
5.5
7
pm
4.8
8
pm
4
9
pm
3
10
pm
2.1
11
pm
1.4




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