Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nehalem, OR

SHORT TERM
Today through Thursday Night...Today, conditions look to briefly dry out and warm up as a shortwave ridge builds over the region. A few lingering light showers could still pop up, especially east of I-5 and into the Cascades, but accumulations should be minimal; less than 0.10 inches for areas east of the Cascade Foothills and up to 0.25 inches in the Cascades. By Wednesday morning, a noticeable break in the wet pattern is expected with the ridge firmly in place. This will bring about drier conditions, a bit more sun, and a slight bump in temperatures with daytime highs in the mid to upper 50s along the coast, low to mid 60s inland and upper 40s to mid 50s for the Cascades. Wednesday night/Thursday morning, models are showing a breakdown of the shortwave ridge, with the 500 mb pattern showing either a weak troughing or zonal flow pattern.
Either of these patterns will bring about slightly cooler temperatures, but maintain overall dry conditions. Thursday night into Friday, the upper level pattern becomes more zonal, but some weak perturbations within the upper level flow look to bring another round of light precipitation a head of a relatively stronger, distended low coming down from western Canada. /42

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...A very distended low diving down from far western Canada will bring about another round of light precipitation by the end of the week. However, temperatures should stay slightly above average for this time of year, especially inland. Forecast models suggest that as we head towards the start of next week, high pressure may start to build over the eastern Pacific and push into the western US, favoring a shift toward drier and more stable conditions.

For now, expect coastal daytime highs in the 50s and inland daytime highs in the 60s through at least the start of next week. /42

AVIATION
Morning stratus still in the process of burning off throughout the region, with mixed VFR/MVFR conditions at all terminals. Cigs in the process of trending back to VFR, with all inland terminals returning to VFR conditions by 20z Tue at latest.
Light showers continue at times, mostly over the mountains, but a stray shower cannot be ruled out for any terminal throughout the rest of Tuesday afternoon. The coast will see continued MVFR conditions as marine stratus clouds continue to stay overhead; 60-80% confidence in conditions remaining MVFR through the period at coastal terminals. Throughout the period, winds remain generally westerly, with gusts up to 10-15 kts possible Tuesday afternoon at all terminals.

Around 8-10z Wed, the next push of moisture arrives to the region, bringing slightly more substantial rain showers at all terminals.
At that time, high-res model guidance shows all terminals seeing a 70-90% chance of MVFR cigs, with coastal terminals seeing a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs or lower at that time.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Morning stratus clouds have mostly scoured out, and predominantly VFR conditions expected throughout daytime hours. Conditions dropping to MVFR around 9z Wed as the next band of moisture arrives, bringing an overcast deck and rain showers; 80% confidence in MVFR or lower cigs. Winds generally westerly throughout the period, with gusts up to 15 kt possible Tuesday afternoon. /JLiu

MARINE
Surface high pressure centered west of Cape Mendocino will continue to support increasing northwest flow, with gusts reaching 20-25 kt over the outer waters and 15-20 kt over the inner waters. Fresh northwest swell will build through today to 8-10 ft at 10 seconds, before winds and swell diminish tonight through Wednesday night. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect across the outer waters through 5 AM Wednesday, while the inner waters are expected to see a shorter duration of hazardous conditions from 11 AM through 11 PM today. Additionally, a strong ebb before 6 AM this morning and another ebb after 6 PM this evening amidst the elevated swell will see locally rougher seas of 9-10 ft within the Columbia River Bar, yielding marginally hazardous conditions from 3 AM through 11 PM today.

High pressure building toward the coast will see winds and seas slowly fall through Thursday, before a reinvigorated northwest swell arrives with a frontal system approaching the coast on Friday. Southwest flow ahead of the front will turn again out of the northwest in its wake, with low (10-30%) chances of gale-force gusts across the outer waters through the weekend. -Picard

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210.

Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for PZZ271>273.