Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nehalem, OR

DISCUSSION
Tonight through Thursday...Radar imagery shows light rain spreading across the area this afternoon as a weak front pushes onshore. Expect the cool, cloudy and damp conditions to persist through this evening. Onshore flow will maintain light scattered rain showers overnight into Friday, with the highest chances of rain persisting along the northern coast and coast range through Friday.
Total rainfall amounts are generally expected around a tenth of an inch or less, except 0.20-0.40 inch north of Astoria, including the Willapa Hills. High temperatures warm into the mid-60s inland, upper 50s along the coast, on Friday, potentially warmer across southern portions of the area (e.g. Lane County) where more sunshine is possible as clouds scatter out.

The active pattern continues late Friday into Saturday as an upper level jet over the north Pacific moves towards the Oregon coast. An initial shortwave trough slides across western Oregon early Saturday morning, initiating widespread rain showers. Northwest flow aloft is maintained as the stronger system drops southward along the British Columbia coast, digging into the Pacific Northwest. This will also bring a slight chance (10-20%) of thunderstorms to the area for Saturday afternoon/evening. Persistent showers will likely produce a bit more substantial rainfall amounts, including a 30-50% chance of exceeding 0.25 inch through Saturday night across much of the forecast area. Showers will likely persist along the higher terrain, including the Cascade foothills, where amounts closer to 0.50-1.00 inch of total (48-hr) rainfall are possible.

Most areas should expect conditions trending drier on Sunday, with more sun breaks through the clouds by the afternoon. Temperatures still remain on the cooler side with highs reaching the lower to mid- 60s inland. Models and their ensembles are coming into better agreement that a weak front brings another round of light rain across the region on Monday. Cluster analysis also showing more zonal flow likely on Tuesday, keeping the door open for some light showers. But still, uncertainty remains into the middle of next week as about 60% of the clusters show some type of weak ridging. Still, the NBM suggest temperatures are likely to trend closer to normal.
/DH

AVIATION
Currently VFR conditions throughout the airspace, with a low VFR overcast deck around 4000-5000 ft AGL, and westerly winds around 5-10 kts for all terminals. The next front is currently in the process of moving into the area, with rain expected to begin by 00z at latest. At that time coastal terminals will drop to MVFR with 60-80% confidence, while inland terminals see a 30-50% chance of MVFR ceilings beginning closer to 05-08z Fri. Winds remain under 10 kts while the front is impacting the area, but will slowly turn southerly over the course of Thursday night.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions through Thursday daytime hours, with a low overcast around 5000 ft AGL. Around 06z Fri, the next system begins moving in, bringing some rain showers and a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs. Intermittent VFR/MVFR cigs expected through the end of the period. Winds will turn from westerly to southerly over the course of Thursday night, though remaining under 10 kts throughout. /JLiu

MARINE
Seas of 5-7 ft at 10 seconds will continue to slowly subside to 4-6 ft by early Friday morning. Northwest winds of less than 10 kt will back out of the southwest to south through tonight, increasing to 10-15 kt on Friday as a reinvigorated northwest swell arrives ahead of a frontal system. South to southwest flow ahead of the front will veer back out of the northwest in its wake, with a 25-45% chance of gale-force gusts beyond 30 NM on Saturday, decreasing to 5-20% on Sunday. 70-90% agreement in at least Small Craft Craft winds during that time.
Afterwards the next disturbances arrives Monday, marking a return to southerly winds around 10-15 kts. -Picard/JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.