Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 8:31PM Sunday August 25, 2019 6:31 PM EDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:16AMMoonset 4:00PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 352 Pm Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
Through early evening..East wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southeast wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201908260400;;199033 FZUS53 KAPX 251952 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 352 PM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-260400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251920
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

Milder night ahead...

high impact weather potential: none.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon analysis reveals a sharp
short-wave ridge cutting up through the central great lakes region
into quebec. Short-wave troughing follows close behind swinging
through the midwest and just into the western great lakes with a
well defined circulation lifting up through eastern minnesota western
wisconsin.

Stronger southeast return flow is now well established across the
region on the backside of retreating surface high pressure in new
england. Return flow has pulled higher low level dewpoint air
into northern michigan... Responsible for our substantial "heating
of the day" cloud cover across the region. Upstream, thicker band
of mid and high cloud cover along and ahead of the trough is
making inroads into the western great lakes, some of which is
already pressing into northern lower michigan.

Primary forecast concerns: minimal through tonight.

We lose our "heating of the day" cloud cover fairly quickly this
evening with many areas becoming partly cloudy or even clear for a
bit. But, mid and high cloud cover will be on the increase
especially overnight into Monday morning, in advance of the
aforementioned short-wave trough that swings through on Monday.

With higher dewpoints, some cloud cover and increased low level
flow, temperatures will run much milder as compared to the last
few night.

Short term (Monday through Wednesday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019

A better chance for rain on Monday night Tuesday...

high impact weather potential... Thunder possible Monday evening.

Pattern synopsis forecast... Looks like the speed of the warm
front rain has slowed a bit as the GFS is now about the speed of the
ecmwf. The nam12 and rap13 are all in agreement that the rain is
after 18z Mon as well. The hiresw products are also in agreement.

However, it doesn't look like the rain is likely, until the warm
front moves through and N lower is briefly in the warm sector (after
06z tue). That's when the models show the upper destabilization
occurs (mainly the showalter index which GOES sub 0c). The cold
front is moving into lake michigan and c upper around 12z tue. This
will bring a line of thunderstorms, and then should be out of the
forecast area between 21z Tue and 00z wed. It is possible that there
will be some showers between 00z Wed and 09z wed, but the as the 500
mb low dips into N lake superior, and the 850 mb temperatures fall
to around +6c rain showers become likely again. As the 500 mb low
passes the upper great lakes by 12z thu, rain showers are possible
through the day on Wednesday.

Primary forecast concerns... Looks like we should have rain, and fair
bit. However, the way this summer has gone will believe it when it
gets here. Thunder is also possible, but the jet dynamics arrive
post frontal. However, there will be some good shear in the warm
sector, so something could get strong, but at this point, it looks
like it wouldn't get severe.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
high impact weather potential... Rain impacting the dryness.

Extended (Wednesday evening through Sunday)... Wednesday evening, the
rain showers are still possible as the 850 mb temperatures continue
to remain sub +7c through 12z Thu with the 500 mb low moving to the
east. Thursday starts out with high pressure, then begins to cloud
up as another 500 mb shortwave moves through the upper great lakes
with a warm front and brings another small chance for rain showers,
that expands Thursday night as the cold front moves through the
area. Friday may be dry as the ECMWF begins to stretch the cold
front out over the region and impulses travel up the front. The gfs
remains dry as it pushes the cold front south of the state. In fact,
the GFS has Saturday dry as well. The ECMWF doesn't dry out the
region until Saturday. Sunday is a toss up, as the rain looks to go
north and south of the forecast area on the gfs, while the ecmwf
continue to keep things dry through Monday morning.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 206 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
southeast flow has increased across northern michigan along the
backside of retreating high pressure. This has pulled increased
moisture into the region and produced a somewhat robust sct-bkn
cu field across the region... Which will persist through the
balance of the afternoon. CIGS are and will remainVFR through the
afternoon. In addition, some gustiness has developed with gusts
into the teens at some terminal sites.

Cloud cover will thin out this evening. But mid and high cloud
cover will be on the increase later tonight through Monday midday
in advance of a rather strong late summer system that will pass
through the region later Monday into Tuesday. Southeast winds
weaken tonight but will increase again on Monday.

Marine
Issued at 320 pm edt Sun aug 25 2019
southeast winds are gustier out there today. However, most marine
sites obs remain below small craft advisory levels. So, I may
cancel the current headlines with the afternoon forecast issuance.

However, gusty winds return for Monday afternoon onward through
midweek when small craft headlines will most likely be needed.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for lsz321.

Near term... Ba
short term... Jl
long term... Jl
aviation... Ba
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi43 min ESE 25 G 29 1020.8 hPa
45175 3 mi22 min S 16 G 18 69°F 65°F3 ft1020 hPa58°F
WSLM4 20 mi31 min E 26 68°F 66°F1019.9 hPa (-2.9)58°F
45022 31 mi21 min ESE 9.7 G 14 76°F 70°F1 ft1019.6 hPa58°F
SRLM4 33 mi151 min E 18 68°F 66°F61°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi51 min ESE 15 G 19 69°F 1019.6 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi43 min SE 15 G 18 1021.8 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi49 min SE 9.9 G 17 73°F 62°F1021.2 hPa53°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi43 min SSE 12 G 14 66°F 63°F1021.6 hPa62°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi43 min ESE 9.9 G 14 1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi53 minE 10 G 1910.00 miFair69°F60°F73%1021 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi37 minESE 13 G 2010.00 miFair79°F55°F44%1020.3 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi34 minE 13 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F55°F51%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE7E6SE5SE6--S7------S6--SE5SE5SE4SE4SE4E6E9E7
G14
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G19
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1 day agoNE3CalmN4N7N6N4--N5N4CalmSE5S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE5E7NE7E5E7E7E5
2 days agoN7N8N9
G14
N8--N4N5N4N4N4N5N3N4N4NE3N5NE6N5N3N7N6N8NE7NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.