Tuesday, May11, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
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1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 9:01PM Tuesday May 11, 2021 9:11 PM EDT (01:11 UTC) Moonrise 5:20AMMoonset 8:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 353 Pm Edt Tue May 11 2021
Through early evening..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202105120400;;961959 FZUS53 KAPX 111953 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 353 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-120400-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 112300 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 700 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Frost/freeze possibilities once again.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Mid afternoon finds skies still generally cloudy across northern Lower though clearing is progressing south through the tip of the mitt counties . with more sunshine above the bridge though a band of diurnal clouds were spreading southward just east of the St. Mary's River. But no signs of glaciation/ precipitation from these clouds . perhaps onset of stronger upper level subsidence starting to have an impact. Scattered showers linger over the southeast quadrant of the forecast area . with more widespread light rain associated with isentropic ascent clipping far northeast Lower and extending across Lake Huron into southern Ontario. Height rises spreading into Michigan this afternoon as mid level trough axis swings into the lower Great Lakes.

1031mb surface high was situated along the Minnesota/Wisconsin border at mid afternoon . which will build east into Michigan as the night progresses . resulting a weakening of cyclonic pressure pattern in place this afternoon. 500mb height rises of 60-70m/12h are expected to occur across the forecast area tonight along with the mid level cold pool finally pulling away from Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns: As has been the case over the past week it seems . low temperatures will be the main issue. Unlike the past several nights however it looks like we will have a legitimately better chance at radiational cooling with much less cloud cover overnight (some lingering clouds and maybe some spits of precipitation over far eastern portions of the forecast area this evening with residual isentropic ascent and upstream moisture still evident in satellite imagery). Winds are the only question and probably won't be much of an issue except perhaps east of I-75 where there may be a little breeze leftover overnight outside of the usual sheltered locations. Afternoon temperatures already have a head start with most areas in the upper 40s to lower 50s . so not far to go to have some issues. But it may take a bit of time as probabilistic low temperature guidance suggests interior areas south of the M-32 corridor stand the best chance of seeing below freezing lows temperatures. But don't mind the colder end of the forecast temperature distributions which will put most of northern Lower under a threat for seeing at least frost development. So will plop all of the northern Lower counties into either a Frost Advisory or a Freeze Warning for tonight (the former for Leelanau county and from Alpena county south along the Lake Huron shoreline).

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Continued Frost/Freeze concerns.

Pattern Synopsis:

Upper-level troughing will continue to slide east of the Great Lakes as ridging moves overhead. Surface high pressure will center itself over Michigan Wednesday and Thursday underneath favorable subsidence aloft. The main jet and associated longwave trough should be draped across the southern half of the CONUS through the middle of the week.

Forecast/Details:

With high pressure in place across the region, precip-free weather and sunny/clear skies are expected for Wednesday and Thursday before some cloud cover develops later Thursday. The good news is that this pattern change will finally allow for a warm up across northern Michigan. High temperatures are expected to climb up into the upper 50s/low 60s on Wednesday and potentially into the mid/upper 60s on Thursday. The bad news, however, is that frost/freeze concerns may still drag on Wednesday and possibly Thursday night. Wednesday night will be the colder of the two nights where some across interior northern lower may drop near freezing underneath weak/calm winds and clear skies. While this will be favorable for efficient radiational cooling, areas may struggle to complete a near 30 degree diurnal swing to drop down below freezing. Thursday night looks to be warmer, but some areas may still reach down into the mid-30s. Actual frost development may struggle, however, due to relatively large T- Td spreads at the surface.

LONG TERM. (Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low

Upper-level ridging sliding east of the area combined with lack of any more substantial forcing aloft will help keep northern Michigan mainly precip-free heading through the weekend. Surface high pressure centered overhead will aid this as well. Pleasant high temperatures are anticipated through the majority of the long term as mid/upper 60s appear likely for most of the area. Some long-range guidance hints at temperatures cooling down some early next week, but confidence isn't particularly high in that solution at this time. However, a more active pattern beginning early next week may lead to our next main round of precip chances at the end of the

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 700 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

Departing trough axis across Northern Michigan will slide east away from our state . as strong high pressure center settles into the Western Great Lakes for the next 24 hours (at least). Diurnally enhanced clouds and sprinkles lingering across NE Lower Michigan will come to an end with sunset and as the weak trough axis pulls east of our area. Clear skies and solid VFR conditions are expected across all of Northern Lower Michigan for the rest of tonight thru Wednesday night as subsidence further strengthens with dry air thru the entire column. Winds will remain from the NW . diminishing to under 10 kts after sunset this evening and then strengthening again to 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts on Wednesday.

MARINE. Issued at 340 PM EDT Tue May 11 2021

Small craft conditions on Whitefish Bay and some of the Lake Huron nearshore zones will continue into this evening before a weakening pressure gradient allows winds to subside a bit overnight. High pressure building into the upper Great Lakes tonight expected to keep winds below advisory criteria through Thursday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . FREEZE WARNING from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ016>018- 021>023-025>029-031>035-099. FROST ADVISORY from 1 AM to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ020-024- 030-036-041-042. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ347-348. LM . NONE. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until midnight EDT tonight for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JPB SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . JPB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45194 2 mi72 min 47°F 42°F2 ft
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi54 min NNW 8 G 11 51°F 46°F1024 hPa29°F
45175 3 mi32 min NW 5.8 G 5.8 49°F 44°F1 ft1026.1 hPa32°F
WSLM4 20 mi72 min NW 13 48°F 43°F1025.4 hPa (+1.0)28°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi92 min NNW 12 G 16 52°F 1025.1 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi54 min NW 16 G 19 44°F1024.2 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi54 min NW 17 G 23 46°F 42°F1024.8 hPa26°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi54 min NW 8.9 G 18 47°F 43°F1023.7 hPa32°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi54 min NNW 8 G 9.9 42°F 1025.5 hPa

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi17 minNNW 610.00 miFair47°F26°F45%1025.7 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi78 minNW 1110.00 miFair52°F27°F38%1026 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi17 minNW 610.00 miFair46°F30°F53%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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