Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:23AMSunset 7:35PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 7:14 AM EDT (11:14 UTC) Moonrise 12:55PMMoonset 9:58PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 616 Am Edt Tue Sep 22 2020
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 knots in the morning. Mostly Sunny early in the morning then Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light winds. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:202009221830;;189898 FZUS53 KAPX 221016 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 616 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-221830-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
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location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 221016 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 616 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 204 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A well defined shortwave was crossing Ontario early this morning, with the tail end of said wave, draped back across the NW Great Lakes. The associated low pressure was over Hudson Bay, and had a cold front extending from the low, back through Ontario and nrn MN, until it turns into more of a stationary frontal zone through SD/NE. A band of diminishing light rain showers was out ahead of the cold front, across SE Ontario back through NW lower/nrn Lake Michigan, into SE WI. This rain shower activity was running out ahead of a corridor of deeper, but not entirely impressive moisture (PWATs around 1.00"), with MUCAPES generally from 300-500j/kg, stretching from eastern Lake Superior back through central upper and NE WI. Further upstream across Manitoba and the nrn Plains, things were quieter, with shallow ridging and drier air leading to only some occasional cirrus.

The shortwave and sfc low pressure cross into nrn Quebec through tonight, while the tail end of the upper wave just scrapes through nrn Michigan today, followed by some minimal ridging late today into this evening. The front sort of washes out across eastern upper Michigan and nrn WI, while the corridor of better moisture and instability is much less impressive as it pushes through our neck of the woods. Latest fcst soundings and RAP forecasts show only 100 to 200j/kg into daybreak across eastern upper and far NW lower Michigan, with little to none in the remainder of nrn lower throughout the day. Forcing will have all but departed east by mid morning, so am expecting zero convection after 12Z-15Z, likely earlier. Any activity we do get will be isolated at best with QPF no more than a couple hundredths. The air mass dries from NW to SE through the day, with some capping arriving in conjunction with the arrival of the shallow ridging/minimal height rises. This will bring about quite a bit of sunshine through the day. The atmosphere remains quite dry tonight, with no moisture or forcing in the region. Skies will be generally clear with just some thin cirrus at times.

Pertaining to the smoke, the passing wave turns upper level winds out of the WNW, which should push a decent amount of the smoke out of nrn Michigan through this morning, especially eastern upper.

Highs today will mostly be in the lower to middle 70s. Lows tonight ought to get near the 30F diurnal spread range with high pressure and near calm winds and clear skies. Good radiational cooling conditions will largely leave low-lying areas in the low to mid 40s, with upper 40s and lower 50s in coastal areas.

SHORT TERM. (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Large scale pattern features mean long wave troughing centered roughly along 150W (strong +EPO pattern). Broad west/southwest flow across the northern latitudes of North America with several short wave troughs in the pipeline. One stronger trough was rolling across northwest Ontario . a second approaching the Pacific northwest (with a small vorticity center over South Dakota). 1032mb high pressure centered over northern New England was sprawled out from Atlantic Canada southwest into the Ohio Valley (+2 to +3 standard deviations so pretty substantial for latter September) . low pressure associated with northwest Ontario short wave trough was over Hudson Bay with a cold front trailing southwest into the northern/central Plains. Meanwhile Tropical Cyclone "Beta" continues its slow sojourn along the Texas Gulf Coast.

Short wave trough along the Pacific northwest coast early this morning is expected to arrive over the upper Midwest by Thursday. An associated cold front will "fold" into northern Michigan in the Wednesday night/Thursday time frame . high pressure ridge sandwiched between this front and Tropical Cyclone "Beta" (which may find itself as far east as the Louisiana coast by Thursday) may serve to limit northward moisture transport. This boundary will probably sit over the forecast area Thursday but may weaken with time.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Thursday precipitation chances with cold front and short wave troughing . though actually rain threat will probably increase across Upper Michigan perhaps by tomorrow evening along along low level moisture convergence/theta-e axis that is nearly coincident with the boundary. But Wednesday looks to be a warm day (after some morning fog) . while normal highs are in the mid 60s Wednesday afternoon temperatures should be well into the 70s and perhaps a couple spots get to 80 degrees. Then rain chances increase from north to south Wednesday night as the cold front and moisture pooled along it drop into northern Michigan. Not certain how far south precip chances will ultimately get . may be more likely that areas south of M-72 don't see much until Thursday morning. But looks like some precipitation chance into Thursday afternoon . may linger into Thursday night but for now consensus forecast is suggesting low PoPs.

LONG TERM. (Friday through Monday) Issued at 315 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal at this point.

More substantial troughing looks to be on the way for the weekend . and beyond as trough is reinforced with additional short wave energy and the establishment of more of a long wave trough over the eastern half of North America (strengthening +PNA). Strong height falls into the Midwest to start the weekend is expected to push a cold front across the upper Lakes . likely with a better moisture feed ahead of it as Gulf return flow opens up. Cold front passage across Michigan during the latter half of the weekend . and with a stronger short wave trough poised to dive into the mean long wave trough Monday . could bring a stronger front to Michigan later Monday or into Tuesday.

Friday will be another warm day in southerly flow ahead of the approaching cold front . widespread 70s with some 80 degree highs in there as well. Shower chances increase from west to east Saturday as cold front crosses the state . and with main system dynamics still to come through behind the front Sunday some additional shower chances anticipated.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning) Issued at 616 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

The air mass dries through the day with increasing sunshine expected from NW to SE through the day. Winds shift out of the west just above the sfc, and mixing today will tap into these winds and sfc winds also turn more out of the W/WSW, with only some minor gustiness possible. Higher pressure takes over tonight, providing light and variable/near calm winds.

Outside of some possible fog/stratus at mbL/PLN late tonight, VFR conditions continue over the entire TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 204 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

The pressure gradient still remains tight enough for advisory level southerly winds to continue across Lake Michigan and Whitefish Bay, but the gradient weakens through the day and all winds go sub- advisory by mid morning. Higher pressure takes over tonight and Wednesday providing even lighter and more variable winds, with lake breezes expected Wednesday afternoon. Outside of a few spits of light rain possible into mid morning or so, the air mass will dry through the day, and remain dry tonight through Wednesday for no precipitation. Am still expecting a chance for showers Wednesday night and Thursday with the arrival of a weak cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT until 8 AM EDT this morning for MIZ095. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 10 AM EDT this morning for LMZ341-342- 344-345. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi56 min SW 11 G 13 61°F 59°F1018.6 hPa47°F
45175 3 mi35 min WNW 14 G 18 63°F 59°F1020 hPa52°F
WSLM4 20 mi74 min S 11 62°F 59°F1020 hPa (-2.0)52°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi34 min W 5.1 G 12 62°F 1019 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 5.1 58°F1019 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi56 min SSE 4.1 G 7 55°F 59°F1019.2 hPa48°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi56 min S 8.9 G 13 57°F 56°F1019.4 hPa51°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi56 min ESE 7 G 11 56°F 1018.6 hPa53°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi19 minSSW 12 G 1610.00 miFair60°F47°F64%1019.6 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi20 minSW 410.00 miFair60°F45°F58%1020.6 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi19 minSSW 610.00 miFair57°F45°F65%1020 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS8S7S6S7S6S3S4SE6E4E7E4SE3NW4CalmSE6S7S8S8S8
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2 days agoS6S7S5S5SW6CalmSE3W3S4CalmSE6SE5SE6E5--SE6SE6S5S6S7SE6SE7S8S7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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