Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Mackinaw City, MI
March 29, 2024 11:07 AM EDT (15:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 7:19 AM Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 12:00 AM Moonset 7:59 AM |
LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1017 Am Edt Fri Mar 29 2024
Today - Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the late morning then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East wind 10 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ300
No data
No data
Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 291412 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1012 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Watching potential for a light wintry mix of precipitation early Saturday morning for parts of northern lower Michigan
- Mixed precipitation chances for some areas in northern lower Saturday morning
- Snow chances return to eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt Saturday
- Large uncertainty remains for weather system mid week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A sunny start to the morning for the southern third of the forecast area, but mainly cloudy elsewhere. A few flurries are seen up in the Sault, per obs from Sault Canada and webcams near the Locks. With late March sunshine and little snow cover, we should see erosion of the lower clouds. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies across all of northern lower MI by late afternoon.
Clearing in eastern upper MI looks to be even slower than that.
Max temps from mid 30s far north to around 50f by Gladwin.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
Most notable feature of interest early this morning is north/south surface ridge building into the western Great Lakes...with its parent mid/upper level ridge lagging just a bit behind across the northern Plains. Still just a bit of a lake response of Lake Superior, bringing a few flurries to parts of eastern upper Michigan. Clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere, with temperatures dipping down into the 20s.
Surface high pressure will build east across the area today, with mid/upper level ridge axis building overhead this evening. Fast moving shortwave trough behind this upper level ridge will race into the northern Plains later tonight, with weak surface response developing vicinity Iowa/northern Illinois early Saturday morning.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Cloud/temperature trends through the period and addressing some late night mixed precipitation potential across parts of the area.
Details:
Uneventful period of weather today through much of tonight as that ridge combo spreads overhead. Any lingering lake induced flurries will come to a quick end. Lake clouds will also steadily thin with time, with most areas likely experiencing sun-filled skies by later this afternoon. That increasing sun and beginning stages of warm air advection will help temperatures recover, with much of northern lower Michigan making a run into the 40s. A bit cooler readings expected for areas north of the big bridge.
Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds from the southwest later tonight as top-down moisture advection begins to ramp-up well ahead of that northern Plains wave. Trends are definitely slower moistening at least the lower levels of the column. Hard to argue with this idea given how dry the low levels will be initially. May see just enough moistening to allow light precipitation to reach the surface across our far southwest areas (down near Manistee and vicinity) toward sunrise Saturday. Warm nose aloft supports liquid reaching the surface (if it precipitates at all). Initial quick fall-off in temperatures this evening, with slow recovery expected as those clouds increase. This does set the stage for freezing of any light rain, with temperatures recovering above freezing near or shortly after sunrise. Not expecting much ice accumulation, but something to definitely keep an eye if traveling very late tonight and early Saturday morning.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Starting early Saturday morning, a weaker surface low approaches MI from the SW. A mid level short wave is behind this surface feature (over MN at this time). Temperatures near the surface will be sub freezing, however model soundings depict an elevated warm layer from ~1.5 to 4kft AGL. The northward extent of this layer resides near the tip of the mitt (where the 850 mb 0C line is). Precipitation chances approach the state from the southwest and west Saturday morning around day break. Snow is likely over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt, however mixed precipitation chances exist for areas south of M-32. Freezing rain chances are dependent upon where surface temperatures can remain below freezing, however CAMs are trending cooler across the CWA for Saturday. Otherwise, intermittent light rain will be seen elsewhere.
Accumulations (snow, rain, and ice) will likely remain on the lighter side, as available moisture is mostly continental (PW values ~0.5 to 0.6 inches) and forcing is marginal. Newest guidance suggests temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing for long Saturday, especially once surface winds turn NW (afternoon to evening hours) after the mid level short wave moves overhead. Light snow could linger through the evening hours, with precipitation chances moving out of the CWA overnight.
Zonal flow aloft Sunday, with light winds near the surface turning E throughout the day as a surface CO lee side strengthens.
Temperatures will warm, however not too much due to persistent cloud cover and lack of warm air advection.
Primary Forecast Concerns: At this time, the track and available moisture of the next surface low has higher confidence in deterministic and ensemble guidance. The uncertainties continue to remain in the exact precipitation type, as the tip of the elevated warm nose resides right over the tip of the mitt in deterministic guidance. Little fluctuations on the exact positioning could either keep freezing rain chances south towards central MI, or allow chances to extend up to M-32. As CAMs start to extend to Saturday, they depict higher chances for freezing rain compared to rain or snow for central northern MI south of M-32 Saturday morning through midday/early afternoon. CAMs also show higher chances of colder surface temperatures Saturday (remaining around the low to mid 30s for most of the CWA). Due to this, the most likely scenario at this time is light freezing rain (and/or rain in areas above freezing) as precipitation chances move in from the SW Saturday morning.
Precipitation becomes mostly snow as it reaches areas north of M-32 and eastern upper. Slick spots should have an easier time melting midday through the early afternoon hours, with light rain lingering through the evening hours (south of M-32). Precipitation will be moving out of the region during the late evening hours, being mostly snow by then CWA wide. As for accumulating precipitation, there are higher chances for light accumulations over northern lower (rain around a few tenths of an inch, ice less than a tenth of an inch, and snow less than 3 inches) as majority (70% -90%) of ensemble guidance points to this. A few outliers of snow accumulations exist for near the tip of the mitt, NE lower, and E upper; however these max out around 3-4 inches. Roads could become slick in some spots Saturday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday morning, a deepening surface low pressure system starts to move NE towards the central plains. What happens next is still up for debate as global deterministic guidance disagrees on the shape of the upper level wave/closed low that carries the surface low NE.
The potential surface low pressure track spans from IL to PA/NY, and everywhere in between which leads to very different outcomes for northern MI. Nonetheless, precipitation chances begin to move into the CWA Tuesday. Type of precipitation, amounts, and duration is unknown at this time. Global models are keying in on a upper level closed low dropping south from Canada towards the Great Lakes mid week, keeping low heights aloft over the region and continuing precipitation chances. WPC cluster's remain fairly split (31%/29%/24%/16%) for Wednesday, highlighting that uncertainty persists. Once this larger system moves east and out of the region, amplified ridging could move overhead and warm temps back up for the end of the work week. We will be monitoring this next stronger weather system.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Lingering lake-induced MVFR cigs at KCIU should slowly mix out later this morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, looking at VFR conditions across the area under partly to mostly clear skies into this evening. Increasing high and mid level clouds expected later tonight. Northwest winds may become a bit gusty today.
Winds go light later today into this evening.
MARINE
Will see some low end advisory producing waves across Whitefish Bay today as northwest winds continue, with sub-advisory conditions expected elsewhere. Current trends support sub-advisory winds and waves continuing through this weekend.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1012 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Watching potential for a light wintry mix of precipitation early Saturday morning for parts of northern lower Michigan
- Mixed precipitation chances for some areas in northern lower Saturday morning
- Snow chances return to eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt Saturday
- Large uncertainty remains for weather system mid week next week
UPDATE
Issued at 1011 AM EDT Fri Mar 29 2024
A sunny start to the morning for the southern third of the forecast area, but mainly cloudy elsewhere. A few flurries are seen up in the Sault, per obs from Sault Canada and webcams near the Locks. With late March sunshine and little snow cover, we should see erosion of the lower clouds. Expect partly to mostly sunny skies across all of northern lower MI by late afternoon.
Clearing in eastern upper MI looks to be even slower than that.
Max temps from mid 30s far north to around 50f by Gladwin.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:
Most notable feature of interest early this morning is north/south surface ridge building into the western Great Lakes...with its parent mid/upper level ridge lagging just a bit behind across the northern Plains. Still just a bit of a lake response of Lake Superior, bringing a few flurries to parts of eastern upper Michigan. Clear to partly cloudy skies elsewhere, with temperatures dipping down into the 20s.
Surface high pressure will build east across the area today, with mid/upper level ridge axis building overhead this evening. Fast moving shortwave trough behind this upper level ridge will race into the northern Plains later tonight, with weak surface response developing vicinity Iowa/northern Illinois early Saturday morning.
Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:
Cloud/temperature trends through the period and addressing some late night mixed precipitation potential across parts of the area.
Details:
Uneventful period of weather today through much of tonight as that ridge combo spreads overhead. Any lingering lake induced flurries will come to a quick end. Lake clouds will also steadily thin with time, with most areas likely experiencing sun-filled skies by later this afternoon. That increasing sun and beginning stages of warm air advection will help temperatures recover, with much of northern lower Michigan making a run into the 40s. A bit cooler readings expected for areas north of the big bridge.
Clear skies this evening will give way to increasing clouds from the southwest later tonight as top-down moisture advection begins to ramp-up well ahead of that northern Plains wave. Trends are definitely slower moistening at least the lower levels of the column. Hard to argue with this idea given how dry the low levels will be initially. May see just enough moistening to allow light precipitation to reach the surface across our far southwest areas (down near Manistee and vicinity) toward sunrise Saturday. Warm nose aloft supports liquid reaching the surface (if it precipitates at all). Initial quick fall-off in temperatures this evening, with slow recovery expected as those clouds increase. This does set the stage for freezing of any light rain, with temperatures recovering above freezing near or shortly after sunrise. Not expecting much ice accumulation, but something to definitely keep an eye if traveling very late tonight and early Saturday morning.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis / Forecast: Starting early Saturday morning, a weaker surface low approaches MI from the SW. A mid level short wave is behind this surface feature (over MN at this time). Temperatures near the surface will be sub freezing, however model soundings depict an elevated warm layer from ~1.5 to 4kft AGL. The northward extent of this layer resides near the tip of the mitt (where the 850 mb 0C line is). Precipitation chances approach the state from the southwest and west Saturday morning around day break. Snow is likely over eastern upper and near the tip of the mitt, however mixed precipitation chances exist for areas south of M-32. Freezing rain chances are dependent upon where surface temperatures can remain below freezing, however CAMs are trending cooler across the CWA for Saturday. Otherwise, intermittent light rain will be seen elsewhere.
Accumulations (snow, rain, and ice) will likely remain on the lighter side, as available moisture is mostly continental (PW values ~0.5 to 0.6 inches) and forcing is marginal. Newest guidance suggests temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing for long Saturday, especially once surface winds turn NW (afternoon to evening hours) after the mid level short wave moves overhead. Light snow could linger through the evening hours, with precipitation chances moving out of the CWA overnight.
Zonal flow aloft Sunday, with light winds near the surface turning E throughout the day as a surface CO lee side strengthens.
Temperatures will warm, however not too much due to persistent cloud cover and lack of warm air advection.
Primary Forecast Concerns: At this time, the track and available moisture of the next surface low has higher confidence in deterministic and ensemble guidance. The uncertainties continue to remain in the exact precipitation type, as the tip of the elevated warm nose resides right over the tip of the mitt in deterministic guidance. Little fluctuations on the exact positioning could either keep freezing rain chances south towards central MI, or allow chances to extend up to M-32. As CAMs start to extend to Saturday, they depict higher chances for freezing rain compared to rain or snow for central northern MI south of M-32 Saturday morning through midday/early afternoon. CAMs also show higher chances of colder surface temperatures Saturday (remaining around the low to mid 30s for most of the CWA). Due to this, the most likely scenario at this time is light freezing rain (and/or rain in areas above freezing) as precipitation chances move in from the SW Saturday morning.
Precipitation becomes mostly snow as it reaches areas north of M-32 and eastern upper. Slick spots should have an easier time melting midday through the early afternoon hours, with light rain lingering through the evening hours (south of M-32). Precipitation will be moving out of the region during the late evening hours, being mostly snow by then CWA wide. As for accumulating precipitation, there are higher chances for light accumulations over northern lower (rain around a few tenths of an inch, ice less than a tenth of an inch, and snow less than 3 inches) as majority (70% -90%) of ensemble guidance points to this. A few outliers of snow accumulations exist for near the tip of the mitt, NE lower, and E upper; however these max out around 3-4 inches. Roads could become slick in some spots Saturday.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Monday morning, a deepening surface low pressure system starts to move NE towards the central plains. What happens next is still up for debate as global deterministic guidance disagrees on the shape of the upper level wave/closed low that carries the surface low NE.
The potential surface low pressure track spans from IL to PA/NY, and everywhere in between which leads to very different outcomes for northern MI. Nonetheless, precipitation chances begin to move into the CWA Tuesday. Type of precipitation, amounts, and duration is unknown at this time. Global models are keying in on a upper level closed low dropping south from Canada towards the Great Lakes mid week, keeping low heights aloft over the region and continuing precipitation chances. WPC cluster's remain fairly split (31%/29%/24%/16%) for Wednesday, highlighting that uncertainty persists. Once this larger system moves east and out of the region, amplified ridging could move overhead and warm temps back up for the end of the work week. We will be monitoring this next stronger weather system.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Lingering lake-induced MVFR cigs at KCIU should slowly mix out later this morning/early afternoon. Otherwise, looking at VFR conditions across the area under partly to mostly clear skies into this evening. Increasing high and mid level clouds expected later tonight. Northwest winds may become a bit gusty today.
Winds go light later today into this evening.
MARINE
Will see some low end advisory producing waves across Whitefish Bay today as northwest winds continue, with sub-advisory conditions expected elsewhere. Current trends support sub-advisory winds and waves continuing through this weekend.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI | 2 mi | 67 min | WNW 8G | 31°F | 34°F | 30.01 | 24°F | |
SRLM4 | 33 mi | 127 min | WNW 18 | 31°F | 20°F | |||
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI | 42 mi | 87 min | NW 8G | 31°F | 30.01 | |||
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI | 45 mi | 67 min | W 5.1G | 29.96 | ||||
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI | 45 mi | 67 min | WNW 8G | 31°F | 29.97 | 22°F | ||
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI | 48 mi | 67 min | W 5.1G | 31°F | 36°F | 29.98 | 24°F | |
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI | 49 mi | 67 min | W 12G | 31°F | 29.98 | 24°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
KMCD MACKINAC ISLAND,MI | 8 sm | 12 min | WNW 10G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 23°F | 69% | 30.04 | |
KPLN PELLSTON RGNL AIRPORT OF EMMET COUNTY,MI | 15 sm | 13 min | NW 11 | 10 sm | Overcast | 34°F | 21°F | 60% | 30.04 | |
KSLH CHEBOYGAN COUNTY,MI | 16 sm | 12 min | WNW 10 | 10 sm | Overcast | 32°F | 23°F | 69% | 30.03 |
Gaylord, MI,
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