Tuesday, November12, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mackinaw City, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 5:09PM Tuesday November 12, 2019 11:23 PM EST (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:40PMMoonset 7:23AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LHZ345 Straits Of Mackinac Within 5 Nm Of Mackinac Bridge Including Mackinac Island- 1024 Pm Est Tue Nov 12 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday evening...
Overnight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Isolated snow showers after midnight, then scattered snow showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LHZ345 Expires:201911131130;;188586 FZUS53 KAPX 130324 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1024 PM EST Tue Nov 12 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LHZ345-131130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mackinaw City, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 45.78, -84.76     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kapx 130313
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
1013 pm est Tue nov 12 2019

Update
Issued at 1002 pm est Tue nov 12 2019
lake effect snow showers continue to target our traditional
snowbelts of northwest lower and eastern upper michigan this
evening. Snow intensity has not been overly impressive, although
transient periods of near one inch per hour rates have occurred
in parts of antrim and otsego counties where low level convergence
is now maximized. Passage of ridge axis overnight will quickly
swing the winds around to a more southwest and south direction,
punting the lake snows northward into the tip of the mitt counties
and up through the straits. No synoptic help (at least yet) so
snow showers should remain fairly light. That all changes heading
through Wednesday as next wave and slug of moisture interacts with
a more than favorable over-water thermal regime. Exceedingly long
south north fetch across lake michigan should direct increasingly
organized lake enhanced snows into western sections of mackinac
county, with MAX organization intensity occurring Wednesday
afternoon into early evening. Still some lingering uncertainty on
where best banding will impact, although latest trends suggest
near and west of engadine. All parameters are present for heavy
snowfall rates, with deep moisture and MAX lift centered in the
dendritic growth zone. Easily looks like several inches (possibly
in excess of 8 inches) is likely across portions of western
mackinac county Wednesday afternoon and evening. After
coordination with marquette, have gone ahead and issued a winter
weather advisory for that area Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 252 pm est Tue nov 12 2019

Diminishing lake effect...

high impact weather potential... Light to moderate snowfall as bands
shift from NW to W to SW overnight.

Pattern synopsis forecast... The 1000-850 mb wind ridge axis is in
central wisconsin and will continue to migrate into the forecast
area overnight. This finally turned the winds to the NW and will
gradually back the winds to the west this evening as the ridge axis
approached the lake michigan shoreline. The near term models have
had an okay time handling this situation, with a blend of the
arw nmm hrrr SREF namnest having done a better job. Radar has been
showing the last of the "monster" band that was in leelanau county
now drifting over the office as a former shell of itself. The bands
have been thinning out as we transition to a more "normal" snow
bands. With the amounts expected overnight, will cancel the
headlines as the snow diminishes into the evening. As we get into
the evening, the winds look to back to the SW as the ridge moves
east, and pushing the NW to W bands north. After 06z wed, the
expectation is that a strong SW band will form, and impact the south
shore of E upper in W and c mackinac county along us-2 into
Wednesday morning.

Primary forecast concerns... As with any lake effect event, there are
some caveats. As the winds back through the evening, a couple of
models show that the NW snow bands, may begin to merge, which could
produce some temporarily heavy bands over portions of NW and nc
lower. The arw is especially on this idea. The nmm backs the winds,
but at a slower rate that pushes the bands into N lakes michigan and
huron, before going SW into E upper. Since the current band
structure looks more like the nmm, have weighted things towards that
solution, with a chance for some band mergers through the evening.

Short term (Wednesday through Friday)
issued at 249 pm est Tue nov 12 2019

Heavy lake effect snow expected in western mac and chip...

high impact weather... Accumulating lake effect enhanced snow,
lowered visibility and snow covered roadways.

Primary forecast concerns... Snow amounts Wed and Wed night,
especially in western chip and mac.

Strengthening southerly flow in advance of a clipper system will
enhance ongoing lake effect once again. This clipper will provide
increasing synoptic moisture along with a broad area of weak
lift upward motion. Over lake instability will remain excellent so
western portions of mackinac and chippewa counties will be under the
gun for heavy snowfall. Mesoscale models are hitting this area hard
during the day Wednesday with a narrow band of heavy snow likely
bringing several inches of accumulation. Local amounts of a foot or
more are not out of the question and would not be a surprise really.

Elsewhere, a general light snow is expected to overspread the area
with accumulations Wednesday into Wednesday night on the order of an
inch or two. The flow then slowly backs into the southwest Wednesday
evening then to westerly by early Thursday with westerly flow
holding through the day Thursday which should drive snow showers
inland. Moisture remains robust through Wednesday night then drops
off during the day Thursday which should diminish snow shower
coverage and intensity. Although over lake instability will remain
decent Thursday night into Friday, moisture will be lacking so snow
shower activity should be generally on the light side. In addition,
another cold front swings across the region overnight Thursday into
Friday morning bringing a quick shot of colder air and perhaps a bit
of light snow or flurries. Temperatures will remain close to 20
degrees below normal Wednesday with some modification Thursday and
Friday to about 10 degrees below normal.

Long term (Friday night through Tuesday)
issued at 249 pm est Tue nov 12 2019

Moderating temperatures...

high impact weather... None is expected.

High pressure Friday night into Saturday in combination with much
less over lake instability should diminish lake effect activity. A
milder southwest flow aloft for Sunday should totally pump the
brakes on the lake effect activity. However, a couple of weak
troughs moving through the flow will bring chances for a few rain or
snow showers later Sunday into early next week (extended models vary
on the timing). Better relief from the recent extreme cold arrives
over the weekend with at least a somewhat milder pattern likely
setting up next week (extended models vary on extent of this though).

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 643 pm est Tue nov 12 2019
lake effect snow showers and attendant periods of reduced
visibility and lower CIGS should improve overnight as moisture
scours out and lake snow organization wanes. Improvement won't
last long however, as next clipper type system brings more
widespread light snow and lower CIGS from west to east across
northern michigan Wednesday. Any new snow accumulations should
remain light, with amounts topping out at a few inches by later
Wednesday, heaviest at kmbl. Winds become a touch gusty out of the
south Wednesday, but should not produce any significant blowing
and drifting snow. Snow to liquid ratios will remain fairly
elevated through the period.

Marine
Issued at 249 pm est Tue nov 12 2019
tonight through Thursday... Winds are near small craft criteria now,
with the idea that they will diminish in the evening, and the waves
will subside. However, winds begin to ramp back up after 06z wed,
with the waves to follow. By 12z lake michigan and whitefish bay are
in small craft with the small craft winds creeping down the lake
huron shoreline. Winds diminish again Wednesday evening as the
trough moves through, and looks to remain below small craft through
the day on Thursday.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Winter weather advisory from 11 am to 10 pm est Wednesday for
miz095.

Lh... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for lhz345>349.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 pm est Wednesday for lmz323-341-342-
344>346.

Ls... None.

Update... mb
near term... Jl
short term... As
long term... As
aviation... mb
marine... Jl


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MACM4 - 9075080 - Mackinaw City, MI 2 mi54 min N 11 G 14 22°F 44°F1024.2 hPa
45175 3 mi25 min NE 9.7 G 14 21°F 42°F1 ft1025 hPa16°F
WSLM4 20 mi84 min WNW 12 21°F 1024.6 hPa (+0.0)11°F
SRLM4 33 mi54 min NNW 15 21°F 40°F12°F
NABM4 - Naubinway, MI 42 mi44 min NW 5.1 G 6 13°F 1023.7 hPa
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI 45 mi54 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 40°F1024.8 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI 45 mi54 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 12°F 48°F1024.4 hPa6°F
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI 48 mi54 min NNW 4.1 G 8 17°F 42°F1024.3 hPa13°F
PTIM4 - 9099004 - Point Iroquois, MI 49 mi54 min E 11 G 15 13°F 1024.2 hPa10°F

Wind History for Mackinaw City, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last
24hr
NE11
G17
NE11
G14
NE12
G16
NE13
G16
NE12
G17
N9
G14
NE7
G14
N6
G9
NW4
NW5
G8
N6
NW7
NW9
G18
NW13
G22
NW13
G21
N10
G13
NW11
G15
NW12
G16
NW12
G18
N14
G17
N11
G15
NW7
G14
N8
G12
N8
G12
1 day
ago
N11
G15
N10
G13
NW11
G14
N9
G13
N10
G13
NE6
G11
NE7
G11
NE7
G10
NE9
G13
NE11
NE11
G15
NE13
G17
NE10
G13
NE10
G16
NE11
G14
NE8
G14
N12
G17
NE13
G18
NE12
G18
N13
G16
NE7
G11
N9
G13
N9
G13
N10
G15
2 days
ago
W9
G12
W11
G17
NW12
G17
NW12
G17
NW11
G16
NW11
G21
NW12
G15
NW13
G21
NW19
G25
NW14
G26
NW15
G21
NW14
G22
NW17
G21
NW14
G19
NW15
G26
NW17
G24
NW8
G14
NW13
G19
NW12
G19
NW13
G21
N16
G21
NW10
G18
NW11
G18
NW8
G15

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mackinac Island Airport, MI8 mi29 minNW 510.00 miMostly Cloudy21°F13°F75%1024.4 hPa
Pellston Regional Airport of Emmet County, MI14 mi30 minN 010.00 miOvercast19°F15°F84%1026.2 hPa
Cheboygan, Cheboygan County Airport, MI16 mi49 minW 44.00 miLight Snow20°F16°F87%1024.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMCD

Wind History from MCD (wind in knots)
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrNE9NE7NE8NE8N9NE9N5N4N5CalmNE5NW4N5W10
G20
N12
G18
NW6NW7NW8
G16
NW10
G14
NW7NW8NW9NW5NW3
1 day agoN7
G14
N5N9NE7NE8N8NE7NE8NE8N6N8
G14
NE7
G16
N11N8
G16
N9
G15
N10N8N8N7N6N5N7N9NE9
2 days agoW8NW6NW8NW10
G14
NW10
G14
NW12
G18
NW9
G18
NW11
G19
NW15
G25
NW15
G23
NW15
G21
NW15
G21
NW14
G22
W15
G27
W15
G21
NW10NW6
G18
N14
G21
N10
G17
N10
G19
NW14
G19
N11
G17
NW10
G17
NW8
G18

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (23,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.