Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Park City, MT

DISCUSSION

Today through Thursday...

Current mid level pattern across the western US looks to show ridging moving in from the west ahead of a low just off the coast.
With this pattern, the region will begin to see an increase in atmospheric moisture under southwest flow. This will allow for some afternoon isolated showers mainly for the mountain and foothill areas today. Additionally, a low level jet looks to produce some breezy conditions for southeast MT into northern WY with gusts 25-40 mph likely. A more pronounced disturbance is expected to move in Saturday afternoon through the evening, bringing a better chance of thunderstorms (10-20%) for the region.
Conditions will be warm and dry ahead of this system Saturday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. As a result, model soundings show steep lapse rates and mixing to around ten thousand feet.
From this, gusty winds will likely be the main threat from these thunderstorms. Although there isn't a concern for gusty winds Saturday outside of an isolated thunderstorm, be careful to not cause a spark. Sunday into Monday the aforementioned low begins to move into the region to bring increased chances for precipitation (50-80%). There is still some uncertainty amongst ensembles on the placement of the strongest forcing of the low. However, ensembles do indicate the better forcing to be Sunday/Monday and then Wednesday/Thursday. Currently, about a 30-60% chance exists for lower elevations for at least a quarter inch of precipitation, with about a 70-90% chance in the higher terrain Sun-Tues. High temperatures for the remainder of the period will generally be in the upper 50s to low 70s, potentially cooling down Thursday. TS

AVIATION

Expect mountain obscurations this afternoon and evening as isolated to scattered showers move in over the mountains. Breezy conditions move in over the east, including KMLS and KBHK, this evening into overnight with gusts out of the southeast around 20 to 35 kts, strongest near the Dakotas border. Archer

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS

Tdy Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 067 044/076 046/070 043/062 040/063 042/062 035/050 0/B 12/W 44/W 77/W 53/W 14/W 64/W LVM 066 042/071 040/064 039/056 036/058 037/056 030/047 1/B 23/W 36/T 67/T 53/W 16/W 54/J HDN 070 041/080 045/072 042/065 038/064 039/065 033/053 0/U 12/W 64/W 78/W 64/W 24/W 64/W MLS 067 043/080 048/070 043/062 038/060 039/061 035/051 0/U 01/U 52/W 56/W 43/W 13/W 53/W 4BQ 066 044/080 047/070 043/065 038/060 038/063 035/054 0/U 01/B 51/U 36/W 55/W 12/W 53/W BHK 060 037/077 044/069 041/062 037/058 036/060 033/048 0/U 00/B 43/W 36/T 43/T 12/W 42/W SHR 068 041/073 040/068 038/062 034/058 034/062 030/049 0/U 12/W 52/W 48/W 65/W 13/W 55/W

BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MT...None.
WY...None.