Milton-Freewater, OR Marine Weather and Tide Forecast

Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Milton-Freewater, OR

April 12, 2024 2:02 PM PDT (21:02 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:38 PM
Moonrise 8:14 AM   Moonset 12:04 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Milton-Freewater, OR
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Area Discussion for - Pendleton, OR
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1046 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Satellite imagery shows significant clearing across eastern Grant, Union, and Wallowa counties this morning, more than advertised by the 12Z HRRR ensemble mean, subjectively more in line with the 10th to 25th percentiles. This increases confidence in shower and thunderstorm potential for the afternoon.
By 1-6pm this afternoon, 12Z HRRR guidance is suggesting joint probabilities of 30-80% to exceed 500 J/kg of surface-based CAPE and 30 kts of 0-6 km bulk wind shear, highest across Union and Wallowa counties. As far as updates to the forecast, trimmed PoP and thunderstorm chances for the Basin this afternoon, and maintained or increased chances for the eastern mountains.
Consistent with the previous shifts thoughts, there is a marginal threat of severe weather associated with any thunderstorms that develop this afternoon, primarily a wind and hail threat.

18Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period, though showers and thunderstorms impacting some sites may produce MVFR to IFR conditions this afternoon. Best chance for showers will be at PDT/RDM/BDN/ALW with showers within vicinity of PSC. As for thunderstorm chances, moderate confidence (45-55%) site PDT will see the best chance of any thunderstorms tracking overhead this afternoon, while confidence is low (25%)
that any thunderstorms will impact sites RDM/BDN/ALW directly, though have introduced VCTS at these sites for this afternoon.
Winds will mainly be 12kts or less, though outflow winds could result from vicinity thunderstorms at sites PDT/ALW/RDM/BDN.

/issued 430 AM PDT Fri Apr 12 2024/

SYNOPSIS...A deep low offshore of the PacNW will fuel a multi-day thunderstorm event this weekend for the inland PacNW with a low- end potential for severe weather possible. Thereafter, the low will move inland across California and help to sweep high pressure ridging eastward allowing for a cooler northwesterly to northerly flow as another system moves inland across Canada and then down into the Northern Rockies during the first half of next week. This will help to transition our concerns from weekend thunderstorms to gusty winds and cooler than normal temperatures.

Today through Sunday
A busy weekend is ahead for our CWA as multiple days of shower and thunderstorm activity are on tap including a low-end potential for severe weather.

The main weather feature driving this weekend's thunderstorm potential is a deep upper low that will skirt offshore southward through Saturday before making its way inland across Central California to end the weekend.

For Today - Ongoing cloud cover plus short wave ridging are expected to help temper overall instability for the day. That being said, CAPE values are still expected to range between 500-1000 J/kg, with some of the CAM models even indicating we could rise as high as 1500-1700 J/kg for eastern portions of the CWA This combined with a strong shear environment of widespread bulk shear values of 30-60 knots and PWAT values in excess of 0.5 inch will help support thunderstorms that do form. Sounding profiles indicate storms across Grant County up through southeastern Umatilla and into Union and Wallowa counties will be able to produce isolated activity capable of strong wind gusts and possibly some marginally severe hail. Once the sun sets and heating ends, expect the severe threat to decay into the evening hours.

For Saturday - A more limited severe threat is anticipated despite a more widespread appreciable area for thunderstorm potential.
With the low moving southward, the exit region of the mid- level jet will also settle further southwards with potions of Central and North-Central Oregon seeing the potential for new rounds of stronger thunderstorm activity for the day. CAPE values will be a bit more limited than compared to Friday, but with stronger shear still intact and capable of supporting updrafts, an instance or two of large hail may be possible. Daytime high temperatures are also of note as clearing across northern Oregon and southern Washington will allow for significant warming, with highs ranging across the 70's, and portions of the Columbia Basin nearing 80 degrees for the day.

For Sunday - The severe threat will be declining on Sunday with the low moving inland across California, but wrap around moisture across the top of the low plus some modest instability should continue to contribute to further thunderstorms from Central Oregon up through the northeastern mountains of Oregon and southeastern Washington. Otherwise, our focus shifts once again to the temperatures as another warm day is on tap for northern Oregon and southern Washington, including some highs in the low 80's across the Columbia Basin. Tightening pressure gradients with significant differences of 10-15 mb from Portland to Spokane give confidence that we may see wind advisory level conditions (gusts 45+ mph) overnight into Monday, possibly even as strong as high wind warnings (gusts 58+ mph). An eventful weekend leads into continued concerns to start next week and the long term.

Monday through Friday
A strong cold front is progged to move across the forecast area on Monday, and confidence is high that its impact over the forecast area will be strong winds and significant lowering of the snow levels. Models have been consistent advertising the front, but latest runs differ on the timing and strength. Some are now about 6 hours slower and not as strong with the cold air advection (approx. 3% GEFS, 16% EC ENS, 55% GEPS from the cluster analysis). NBM is trending stronger with the winds and now shows 75% probability of gusts meeting advisory criteria for the Kittitas Valley, Simcoe Highlands, and portions of the Lower Columbia Basin and Blue Mtn Foothills (mainly the Oregon side) and a 50% chance of high wind gusts for these same areas. Forecast currently shows patchy blowing dust (BLDU) and will keep this with a good chance of BLDU near newly plowed fields. Snow levels will lower to around 2500 feet behind the front. The westerly flow is not favorable for precipitation in the lower elevations, therefore little to no accumulations are forecast in the valleys. Drier air behind the front will also keep snow accumulations around 1-4 inches in the mountains with the exception of the WA Cascades north of I-90 where models bullseye moderate to heavy snow that is likely associated with a Puget Sound Convergence Zone setting up in the NW flow aloft.

Models are in general agreement deepening the trough along the Rockies which leaves eastern WA/OR on the backside of the trough and under a NNW flow aloft. Once again, models vary on the depth of the trough. Typically, one would expect large spreads in the max and min temps for Tues and Tues night due to these different solutions, but the NBM is not showing large spreads in the box whisker plots. It will be colder Tues and Tues night with snow levels around 2500-3000 feet. There is a 40-60% chance of snow showers over the mountains and adjacent valleys with up to 3 inches of accumulation. Confidence in any significant snow in the Blues and Wallowa County is low (30%), as a majority of ensembles are no longer showing this as a wrap-around event.

The weather is less active Wednesday-Friday, but there remains model discrepancies. High pressure will build along the eastern Pacific on Wednesday, resulting in a northwest flow aloft in the forecast area. There will be orographic showers over the Cascades and eastern mountains (30-40% chance), continued cool and locally breezy winds. The ridge is progged to move eastward across WA/OR Thursday, although there are model differences on the timing and amplitude of the ridge. Models also differ on whether the ridge will retrograde and allow a shortwave to dive south along the front side of the ridge or the ridge will strengthen over the PacNW on Friday. Wister/85

PDT 63 43 72 48 / 30 60 10 10 ALW 68 46 77 51 / 30 70 10 10 PSC 69 47 78 51 / 10 30 0 0 YKM 66 41 75 46 / 10 0 0 0 HRI 67 45 76 50 / 20 50 0 10 ELN 65 41 74 47 / 0 0 0 0 RDM 55 39 63 43 / 40 20 40 50 LGD 70 44 73 47 / 60 60 10 20 GCD 72 44 74 46 / 70 60 30 40 DLS 66 46 74 52 / 20 10 10 10


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KALW WALLA WALLA RGNL,WA 11 sm69 minvar 0610 smClear61°F43°F51%29.76
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Pendleton, OR,

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