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FXUS61 KCAR 050233 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1033 PM EDT Wed Oct 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift northeast of the region tonight. High pressure will be centered to the east Thursday through Friday.
A complex storm system approaches from the west Friday night through Saturday night and crosses the area from Saturday night into Sunday, then slowly tracks to the northwest through Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
1030pm update...Fog has become locally dense at times at BHB and looking at coastal web cams, have issued a Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog for coastal Downeast through 5AM.
Will continue to monitor either for the need to expand the SPS or issue a short fused Dense Fog Advisory.

The progression of the fog/stratus bank to the N from the coast remains the main story into the early morning hours. Still looks like it should stay east of the mountains and mainly along/E of state route 11. The next challenge with this area, will be how quickly and how far it retreats to the south after sunrise.

Synoptically and in the mesoscale the models have things well in hand over the region to get started, so have only had to made minor adjustments to the grids with this update.

Previous discussion...
High pressure will move east across the Maritimes tonight through Thursday. A warm front will lift northeast of the region tonight with the developing return flow around the Maritimes high. Aloft, upper level ridging remains across the region tonight then begins to exit across the Maritimes Thursday. Expect a mostly clear/partly cloudy evening.
Clouds then increase overnight with low clouds and fog expanding northward across the forecast area. Expect low clouds and patchy/areas of fog early Thursday. Partly sunny/mostly cloudy skies are then expected Thursday afternoon, with patchy fog possibly lingering along the Downeast coast. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to mid 50s across the forecast area. High temperatures Thursday will range through the 70s north, to the upper 60s to lower 70s interior Downeast with mid to upper 60s along the Downeast coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
500mb high around 590dam will be centered S of Nova Scotia Thursday Night into Friday AM and begins slowly shifting NE in response to an upper level low interacting with Philippe moving north. The ridge will remain in place for the night but return southerly flow will be streaming in off the Gulf of Maine increasing the moisture in the boundary layer. Partly to mostly cloudy low level clouds are expected with patchy to areas of fog developing with the onshore flow. Expect temperatures to fall back into the low to mid 50s across the area.

Friday expect a partly sunny day with high pressure still close enough at the surface keeping us dry with a cold front slowly pushing east into western New England as a potent trof digs south into the Ohio River Valley. Expect a southerly wind 10-15mph with a few higher gusts pushing warm moist air northward into Maine. After the morning fog breaks expect temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s with mid 70s in the St. John Valley. Dew Points will be climbing into the low to mid 60s for most so it will feel humid. Fri night expect the trof to dig and tilt negatively over the Eastern Great Lakes but exact location will determine how this complex weather maker plays out on Saturday into Sunday with the remnants of Philippe moving north off the Eastern Seaboard. Temperatures will be very mild for October with lows in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A complex weather system likely to bring locally heavy rainfall this weekend.

Saturday the important factor will be where the trof slows down and tilts strong negative. Decent model agreement on the fact the trof at 500mb will go negative but where exactly the axis is and how it interacts with the remnants of Philippe tracking north. Philippe by Saturday will be losing or have completely lost its tropical characteristics based on the latest NHC forecast. There will be a significant increase in PWATs on the S-SE flow into the area. At the same time the pressure gradient with the front approaching will allow for E-SE winds to increase during the day Saturday with showers becoming steady rain developing from SW to NE throughout the day. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 60s with the warm air surging north along and ahead of the front and it will feel muggy.

The question is with the remnants of Philippe becoming post- tropical and entering the mid-latitudes we expect the low to strengthen as it interacts with the front. The exact track of the low is uncertain with today's 12z ops suite ranging from ME/NH border to Bay of Fundy to Nova Scotia. This is because of the exact location of the trof and how it captures Philippe remnants. At this point expect the entire area to be experiencing rainfall Saturday night into Sunday AM. Its at this point given the former tropical system interacting with the surface enhancement of the front resulting in the potential for locally heavy rainfall. The potential exists where strong SE winds may develop across the Maine coast Saturday that will shift and be gusty on Sunday. Exact details are hard to get into at this point due to the uncertainties in model guidance this far out.

Sunday into Monday the upper level low and long wave trof will be overhead which will keep the weather unsettled and cool with showers especially diurnally driven. Upper 50s to low 60s on Sunday with low to mid/upper 50s expected on Monday. Tuesday into Wednesday we will stay under the influence of the upper trof with shortwave energy diving around the area. Temperatures will remain in the low to mid 50s north and upper 50s south. A chance of showers will be in the forecast from Sunday into midweek given the upper level disturbance.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
NEAR TERM: High confidence in IFR or lower at KBHB through at least 12z Thursday. Elsewhere moderate-high confidence in IFR or lower conditions developing at the remainder of the terminals from S to N into the overnight hours. High confidence that northern terminals become VFR again from N to S from after sunrise through late morning. Moderate confidence that KBGR and KBHB become VFR by around midday.

Winds become light and variable throughout this evening. Winds then become S at around/just under 10kt by late Thursday morning at all terminals.

SHORT TERM:

Thursday night-Friday night...VFR, except MVFR or lower possible N terminals/likely S terminals at night/early in the morning.
S-SE winds 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt possible at northern terminals Friday afternoon. LLWS possible Friday night.

Saturday...AM Fog may reduce vsby. VFR/MVFR north, MVFR/IFR south. Cigs lowering through the day. Rain likely at southern terms becoming -SHRA north. E-SE winds increasing. 10-20kt with gusts 20-30kt possible. LLWS possible.

Saturday Night...IFR/LIFR. Rain likely. E winds 15-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. LLWS possible.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR with rain likely becoming MVFR by afternoon with SHRA. E-SE winds 10-20kt shifting SW 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. LLWS possible.

Sunday night-Monday...VFR/MVFR with -SHRA possible especially northern terms. S winds 10-15kt with gusts to 25kt possible.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels tonight through Thursday. Visibilities lowering in developing fog tonight. Patchy/areas of fog Thursday.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas will be below SCA conditions through Fri Night. Winds increase to SCA conditions by Sat with seas building. A complex weather system is expected to impact the waters this weekend with the remnants of a tropical system. The exact track will determine exact wave heights and how strong the winds get across the waters. Winds may approach Gales Sat night into Sun AM. The max long period SE swells are expected Sat night into Sun and have the potential to build above 10ft.
Winds will decrease into Mon but seas may take till Tue to fall below SCA conditions.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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