UPDATE
Issued at 837 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Yet another exceptionally quiet and mild fall evening across the Northwoods. Some signs of change lurking just upstream, as a weak east moving cold front is kicking off some showers and embedded thunderstorms back across central Wisconsin. Some of these will attempt to make a run into far western sections of our area by sunrise Friday, although they should be becoming increasingly disorganized and weaker as they do so. Better chances for showers with a few embedded thunderstorms set to arrive during the day Friday.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

Ridging will continue to fold over the Great Lakes and southeast Canada as a well-defined wave evident on satellite imagery pivots across the northern Great Plains tonight. Said wave will begin to lift toward Hudson Bay Friday morning as associated troughing on the backside works over the Great Lakes. A weak cold front also looks to sweep across the Midwest tonight and work into the Great Lakes on Friday.

Forecast Details:

Rain/thunder chances return Friday -- Primary focus for the short term period will be the much awaited return of rain chances to northern Michigan on Friday. Favorable ascent collocated with the aforementioned front will support showers and storms to the west of Lake Michigan this evening. This activity is expected to track east with time tonight, but will encounter a less favorable environment with eastward extent. Dry low-level air may make it difficult for any initial precip to reach the ground Friday morning as these showers wane. The best chances for showers and a isolated/scattered storms will come late morning/early afternoon with redevelopment as troughing slides overhead. A narrow corridor of ~500 J/kg MUCAPE with ~30 kts of deep-layer shear in place may support a few strong storms, but severe weather is not expected at this time.
Rain/thunder chances will diminish from west to east Friday afternoon into the evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 327 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Dare we say a somewhat active pattern is forthcoming. Well, that may end up being overstated but at least there will be periodic chances for rain in the long term. Any leftover showers Friday evening are expected to exit off to our east overnight as drying/subsidence works itself in from the west. Saturday then looks rain free with short wave ridging taking temporary control of the weather picture.
Extended guidance is then in fairly good agreement that a cutoff upper level low currently evident on water vapor imagery across central California heads east northeast and links up with moisture out of the Gulf of Mexico. This should set the stage for some much needed rainfall to end the weekend (later Sunday into Sunday night).
Lots of uncertainty remains for next week. As the tropics likely get more active with a possible system in the Gulf of Mexico, models are all over the place with what happens up this way. There will be chances (slight/low end through the week) but confidence isn't very high on any of the details (it might not rain much at all next week but it's too early to make that call). Temperatures will remain warm through Sunday (highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s Saturday then the low and mid 70s Sunday) with a cool down back toward normal levels next week (mid 60s to near 70).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1128 PM EDT Thu Sep 19 2024

Looking at some patchy MVFR to even IFR producing fog/mist impacting KAPN early this morning. Otherwise, increasing high clouds expected to give way to a lowering cloud deck today...although trends continue to support cigs remaining VFR. Weak front working into the area will likely kick off some scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms...spreading from west to east through the day. Not expecting any widespread significant impacts from these, although suppose any thunderstorms may bring some brief gusty winds and pockets of heavy rain. Conditions will improve from west to east later this afternoon and evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.