Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for De Tour Village, MI

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near De Tour Village, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 081733 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 133 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

UPDATE
Issued at 1106 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

No big changes to the forecast with continued extreme fire danger through this evening. Meanwhile, satellite imagery and surface observations indicates a large mass of low/mid clouds to rotate in from the northwest in association with a long wave trough located well to our east. No precipitation is expected however. Highs today look on track with upper 60s and low 70s away from the Great Lakes fairly common.

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Yet another day of extreme fire weather conditions.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast:

Elongated surface ridge continues to dominate our weather early this morning, bringing more clear skies and seasonably chilly conditions.
Speaking of that chill, some of our traditional colder interior areas of northern lower Michigan are already well down into the 40s...likely reaching the 30s by sunrise.

Surface ridging will remain steadfast across the Great Lakes for the remainder of this work week...unfortunately prolonging the unbelievably dry stretch of weather that started way back in early May. Perhaps some very good news with regards to some much needed rain later this weekend into early next week. Read all about that in the short and long term sections to follow.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Main focus on fire weather parameters and attendant headline decisions again today.

Details:

Another day of rather extreme fire weather conditions expected as a very dry low level airmass remains. Guidance derived sounding analysis, as well as simple pattern recognition, supports low level moisture mixing out rather quickly again this morning...with relative humidity values nearing critical levels (25%) this afternoon. Maintenance of north flow, and secondary surge of weak cold air advection, should keep temperatures a bit below what is considered critical criteria, with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Despite this, and per coordination with land management agencies, again decided safest course of action is to issue another red flag warning for this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, expect at least a scattered/broken mid level cloud deck to swing back west into the region, but lack of deep moisture, instability, and no appreciable forcing should prevent any showers. May also see some haze/smoke from ongoing Canadian fires...especially across northeast lower Michigan later this afternoon and evening. Clear to partly cloudy skies expected tonight (more clouds east). Another chilly one, with lows mostly in the lower and middle 40s.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Moderate...potential for fire weather concerns to last into at least Friday...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Trough crossing through northern Canada over top the ridge attm...as anomalous troughing over the East Coast seems to show signals of retrograding, especially with a lobe of energy pivoting through the Great Lakes, persisting northerly flow into our region. Upper low remains over the SW US...with longwave troughing over the north central Pacific associated with a zonal 140+kt upper level jet...and a parade of cyclonic features lined up across the tropical Pacific.
Somewhat deeper moisture pivoting around the backside of the E.
Coast troughing into us today...with some diurnal cu as a result.
Bulk of the moisture remains to our west...as anomalous moisture (pwats between 1.5 and 2 inches) rotates around the perimeter of the ridge ahead of that upstream shortwave in northern Canada...from Manitoba down into the Mid MS Valley and SE US...with some additional feed up into the northwestern US. Bulk of the convection attm is occurring within these belts of deeper moisture across the western US/Rockies...and down through the MS Valley, along a largely stationary surface boundary through this general region, wrapping around the base of the trough out into the Atlantic. Surface high pressure over Hudson Bay continues to funnel cool and relatively dry air into our region.

Expecting the troughing over the East Coast will continue to retrograde over the next couple days...halting for a bit later Friday
as the northern Canada impetus crests the ridge
and heights start to fall over Ontario. What is left of the shortwave ridge axis to our north will slowly sink in for Saturday ahead of the main pv anomaly...though it will be accompanied by falling surface pressure...as that anomalous moisture plume out to our north and west begins to pivot down into our anomalously dry region.
Looks like this incoming trough will actually start to buckle the heights back up for a time Saturday across the Upper Great Lakes...as additional energy pinwheels down into what will become the next unseasonable upper low...and the blocking pattern regroups over the western portion of the continent...with ridging over Canada
and anomalous troughing over the SW US
and that trough holding over north central Pacific.

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS: Fire weather concerns Friday (maybe Saturday?)...PRECIP CHANCES!

Ridge axis should still be just upstream of us Friday, though weakening with time as the upstream pv anomaly begins to win out.
Will still be looking at some of that moisture from the East Coast trough to try to swing over NE Lower...though we may yet see some drying ahead of the deeper moisture plume eking southeastward along and ahead of that incoming boundary. Looking like dewpoints in the 40s to around 50...and temps in the upper 70s to around 80 are possible yet again...which suggests we could be close to critical afternoon RHs again...though it may not be quite as take-it-to-the- bank-worthy as it has been recently
Additionally
winds look to remain on the lighter side, with a greater potential to remain at or below 15kts. Anticipate at least one more day of afternoon lake breeze development, though. Though moisture does appear to be deepening Saturday...as I'll mention shortly...it will take a bit of time to have an effect, such that, when combined with the potential for warmer temps (depending on how quickly we cloud up), not out of the question we could approach fire weather concerns for one more day.

Moisture should be on the increase from the northwest with time Friday night into Saturday...though there are signals for the niblet to start to dig into MN...which should keep the better moisture out there for Saturday. We should be fighting the anomalously dry air mass initially...such that part of the incoming moisture should be used up in saturating the air mass, rather than actually precipitating, at the outset, anyway
Still
with some signals for theta-e advection (and/or a bit of a warm front slipping in)...suspect we will finally be able to break that 700mb cap we've been dealing with the last few days...and get some actual convection going across northern Lower during the afternoon hours...though again, given the antecedent dry air mass, it may take some time for things to saturate enough to make it to the ground. There is some uncertainty for Saturday night...as the niblet stalling to our west should linger a zonal boundary somewhere over Michigan. This should become the focus for precipitation development Saturday night into Sunday morning
as upper level dynamics increase
and the surface low begins to take shape. Have some suspicions attm that this could be a setup for training convection if the boundary stalls...so will be keeping an eye on it.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Minimal...though watching potential for rain (more yay...as long as it's not too much all at once)...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Guidance really seems to be liking the idea of the upper low developing over the Midwest later this weekend into early next week.
There are some differences in the exact details with the upper low, but it's really catching onto the idea of an anomalous upper low sitting over us for at least a couple days...which, not gonna lie, would probably be fantastic, given the dry spell we've been in. Will have to keep an eye on the guidance trends going forward...as a little further westward position of the upper low would put us in a more favorable position, synoptically, for better rainfall. (Note that this seems to be the current idea with guidance...but will have to see if this idea sticks around or not.) This being said...as deeper moisture increases...and there is potential for the surface low and a resultant boundary to stall/spin in the region...not out of the question we could be looking at a lot of rain all at once
so even as dry as we have been
hydro concerns are not entirely out of the question, depending on just how this all pans out. Will be something to keep an eye on as we get closer, particularly noting that WPC has parts of the region (including the southern third or so of our CWA) under a marginal risk for excessive rain for days 4 and 5.

Otherwise
with the upper low in the vicinity
will be looking for cool and unsettled weather into early next week. A bit more uncertainty creeps in going into the middle of next week...as the upper low departs...and how it interacts with the upper trough over the southwestern US...with additional energy slipping eastward over the northern Pacific
For now
trends point toward the upper low meandering out toward midweek as the upstream flow becomes more zonal
though if this low does become cut off
have to wonder if it will tend to stick around longer than guidance is currently suggesting.

AVIATION
(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 132 PM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the taf period as weak high pressure remains in control. Just some sct-bkn mid-level clouds meandering across the region this afternoon and evening. Northerly winds will be a bit gusty into this evening then light overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 308 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

North winds will be a bit gusty at times again this afternoon and evening, although both winds and waves should remain below advisory levels. Sub-advisory winds and waves look to continue through at least the first half of the weekend, with perhaps some stronger winds arriving Sunday on into early next week. Dry weather continues through Friday, with chances for showers returning this weekend and early next week. Best rain chances expected Sunday and Monday.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for MIZ016>018- 020>036-041-042-098-099.
LH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
LS...NONE.

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