Sunrise 6:41 AM   Sunset 8:31 PM Moonrise 2:09 PM   Moonset 4:00 AM

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LSZ322 418 Pm Est Mon Dec 25 2023
.the st marys river system is closed to vessel navigation - .
the united states coast guard in sault ste marie has closed the st marys river system due to dense fog. Another statement will be issued once the river system is reopened to vessel navigation.
precautionary/preparedness actions - .
dense fog was reducing visibilities to below 1/4 mile. Reduce your speed and keep a lookout for other vessels, buoys, and breakwaters. Keep your navigation lights on. If not equipped with radar - .consider seeking safe harbor if possible.
lat - .lon 4653 8413 4650 8411 4637 8414 4619 8408 4613 8423 4619 8434 4624 8434 4627 8427 4631 8427 4645 8435 4636 8455 4638 8463 4650 8434 4649 8427 4654 8420

LSZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 180345 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1145 PM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic shower chances through Saturday morning.

- Overall quiet, cooler weather this weekend ahead of more chances for showers early next week.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Pattern synopsis:

An upper trough will drift from the western Lakes region to northeast Ontario tonight and Thursday. At the surface, a warm front extends from a surface low over Wisconsin across southern lower Michigan to Lake Erie. This low will occlude out as a cold front sweeps southern lower Michigan later today and tonight, with the low itself north of the Soo by daylight Thursday.

Forecast Details:

Bands of precipitation pinwheeling around the upper low will continue to bring light rain to the Northwoods through the evening, tapering off overnight. Instability is hard to come by, but storms that find some may produce a flash or two of lightning. There is some potential for gusty winds (apart from background winds) with this convection, but impacts look to remain minimal. After perhaps a short lull in the wee hours, another impulse will bring another round of light rain for most places on Thursday.

Marine headlines will be gradually ratcheted back as the low occludes. Current gale warnings will expire this evening, to be replaced with small craft advisories, that will themselves drop at 06z on the Michigan side and 12z elsewhere. Marine impacts continue at this hour, so future shifts will monitor for potential extension of these headlines.

The wind advisory for land portions of eastern upper will similarly be allowed to expire on schedule at 5pm. Gusts will continue in that area tonight, just not strong enough to reach headline criteria.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A long wave trough will be centered across north central Canada over the next few days. The Great Lakes will be on the southern end of this trough. Weak disturbances moving through the flow will bring occasional rain shower chances through Saturday morning.
Progressively colder air will even lead to the possibility of rain mixing in with or changing over to all snow showers late Friday night into Saturday morning as the lakes become activated (lake/850 mb delta ts in the mid teens). Wouldn't be shocked if parts of eastern upper and the higher terrain of northern lower even received a thin coating of snow. The flow flattens out for much of Sunday into Monday likely bringing a break from the shower chances.
Another trough off of the Pacific will bring back shower chances Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will average slightly below average during the long term with Saturday/Saturday night the coldest period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Deep low pressure center will continue to lift NE into Ontario overnight...then filling as it reaches James Bay on Thursday.
Showers will end overnight as the low center exits our state.
IFR/MVFR conditions will hold on across much of our region...
improving to MVFR/low VFR on Thursday. Chances of showers will again increase by around midday Thursday thru Thursday night as Northern Michigan becomes positioned along the northern edge of deep moisture associated with low pressure moving thru the Mid Mississippi Valley and into the Ohio Valley. Surface winds will become westerly at 10 to 15 kts late tonight into Thursday...
and will then shift to the south under 10 kts Thursday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ345.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LHZ346>348.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LHZ349.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for LMZ341-342.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Thursday for LSZ321-322.

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