Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near De Tour Village, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 170816 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 316 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 316 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

. Cooler with lingering light snow .

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Overnight composite analysis reveals larger scale deep troughing encompassing most of the central and eastern CONUS Embedded within the larger scale trough. closed low is working it's way into New England followed by a second deepening wave working into western Illinois. Surface low pressure is also moving into New England with sharp surface troughing extending back through northern Michigan. Still getting some subtle deformation forcing/light snowfall across parts of northern Michigan over top modest NNW flow lake induced banded convection, leading to continuing light snow showers . particularly across NW Lower Michigan.

Illinois short-wave will gradually advance eastward through the lower lakes region through tonight, dragging another round of light precip through mainly southern Lower Michigan and the Ohio Valley area. Northern Michigan will remain largely out of the synoptic precip mix. But, ongoing cold advection and modest over lake instability, along with sharp low level cyclonic flow and background synoptic forcing, will continue to produce lake induced precip through tonight, especially across NW Lower Michigan. Generally light snow amounts anticipated through tonight, an inch or two at best where snow showers are most persistent.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 316 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

High impact weather potential: Accumulating lake enhanced snow is possible Tuesday into Wednesday, especially across the traditional snowbelt locations of eastern upper and northwest lower Michigan.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Broad troughing will cover the eastern CONUS with a few separate waves pinwheeling through the forecast area . producing synoptic snow and enhanced by the lakes at times with 850mb temperatures of -15 to -20C. When waves depart to the east along with it's deeper moisture . lake effect clouds/snow will continue over northern Michigan Not appearing to be any huge snow event. just more nuisance type snow with 0.5 to 1.0" every 6 hours, with localized higher amounts possible in better organized lake effect/enhanced snow . mainly in northwest snowbelts of northwest lower and eastern upper. Winds will be west to northwest and become a bit gusty Tuesday as the pressure gradient tights with a weak surface cyclone developing to our east . these gusty winds will further exacerbate the snow, making for reduced visibility and snow blowing across roadways. Winds back to more southwesterly Wednesday as heights finally begin to increase and the broad cyclonic flow is replaced with ridging. Temperatures will be normal for this time of the year, with highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits and teens above zero.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 316 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Monitoring late week system.

Troughing quickly replaces the aforementioned ridge mentioned in the previous forecast period. With this renewed troughing across the eastern half of the country leading to colder air moving into the Great Lakes through midweek. The main focus of the long term will be the potential for a clipper system to slide across Canada and into the Great Lakes heading into late this week. This could bring another round of solid snow chances across northern Michigan - both associated with the system itself and with additional lake effect snow behind the departing system. Confidence in the timing and placement of this system, and thus snowfall potential, will continue to increase with time. Temperatures continue to be normal to near normal for this time of the year . daytime temperatures will generally be in the 20s, while overnight lows drop into the single digits to low 20s.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) Issued at 1045 PM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

A complex area of low pressure now centered over New England will continue to slowly exit eastward thru Sunday. Deep cyclonic flow will linger behind across the Great Lakes. Persistent but shallow low level moisture along with weak over-lake instability and cyclonic flow will continue to generate mainly light lake effect snow showers and mostly MVFR conditions across Northern Lower Michigan overnight into Sunday night. The most persistent snow showers will occur across NW Lower Michigan thanks to N/NW low level flow off of Lake Michigan. Surface winds will remain from the N/NW AOB 10 kts thru the forecast period.

MARINE. Issued at 316 AM EST Sun Jan 17 2021

Some northwest gustiness noted on the lakes this morning, although gusts have been mostly sub small craft advisory so far. Thus I may go ahead and cancel the ongoing small craft headlines a bit early.

Otherwise, generally lighter winds/waves anticipated over the next few days.

Note: The last nearshore forecast for the season for Whitefish Bay will be issued this morning. The forecast will resume around March 18, 2021.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 AM EST this morning for LHZ348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST early this morning for LMZ344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . BA SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . MR MARINE . BA

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	9 mi	43 min	NW 4.1 G 8.9	28°F	35°F		1001 hPa	26°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	29 mi	43 min	NW 8.9 G 13				1001.3 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	31 mi	43 min	NW 8.9 G 9.9	25°F			1001.8 hPa	20°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	44 mi	43 min	N 8.9 G 9.9	24°F			1002 hPa	19°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	47 mi	43 min	NE 8 G 9.9	24°F	36°F		1001.5 hPa

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Drummond Island Airport, MI	1 mi	66 min	NNE 4	10.00 mi	Overcast	28°F	23°F	83%	1000.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDRM

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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