Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near De Tour Village, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 261852 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 152 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 956 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Michigan is sandwiched between surface high pressure centered along the mid Atlantic coast and low pressure across south-central Canada. Increased SW flow across the western Great Lakes, associated moisture flux off Lake Michigan overtop an inland cold/moist boundary layer managed to expand a nice batch of stratus/fog/freezing fog across northern Lower Michigan this morning (some nice pics of hoar frost here at the office forthcoming on social media this morning).

Morning APX sounding reveals that surface based saturated layer to about 800 feet AGL, but with very dry condtions above that. This suggests our stratus/fog will mix out relatively easily as we get into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Already seeing that happen on visible satellite imagery, particularly off the inland higher terrain into the tip of the mitt with downsloping southerly flow.

So, still expecting mostly sunny conditions to develop across the forecast area heading into the afternoon. Temps will warm into the upper 30s to lower 40s.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal. Chance of light snow late tonight, with an outside shot some freezing drizzle as well.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Mid level ridging was working into the western Great Lakes early this morning, while upper troughing was settled in over the Rockies. At the sfc, low pressure was in Manitoba, with a cold front that extends off to the west. This was resulting in light snow showers and flurries. Another weaker area of low pressure was in CO, ahead of shortwave activity in the base of the upper troughing. Not much in the way of precipitation was occurring with these features. Here in nrn Michigan skies were clear, with some high level clouds approaching from the west. We do have an increasing southerly wind in between the high and low pressure. This was ushering in warmer air, which has killed most all shallow overlake instability to the point where there isn't even any lake cloud development.

Suppose there is still a chance that some minor moisture flux off the Great Lakes, and for SW winds just above the sfc to advect it in over land areas that are cooler than the Lakes. Especially areas that have been able to cool off more efficiently, such as lower lying areas shielded from the increased wind. So, wouldn't be surprised to see some shallow stratus develop over the next few hours. However, that should be short-lived, as the atmosphere is very very dry with PWATS at 0.15" or so. So, any shallow lake cloud ought to quickly erode into this morning. This is expected to leave behind plenty of sun for much of the remainder of the day.

The upstream weak low pressure will draw a warm front up into nrn Michigan by late tonight. Deep layer -divQ is pretty good, but much of the forcing will get used up trying to saturate the very dry air mass. Chances of seeing some light snow have gone down a bit, but fcst soundings do reveal a pretty quick period of time late tonight when deep saturation can take place. We will be battling the driest mid levels, and there are subtle hints that lower level moisture does thicken, but doesn't reach the -10C isotherm for ice activation. This leaves a small chance scenario for some freezing drizzle, but I woulnd't exactly bank on that.

Highs today will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight will be in the upper half of the 20s, and some lower 30s over the GTV. Bay region.

SHORT TERM. (Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

. Quiet, May be some Drizzle? .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast and possible impacts . Saturday morning, the last of the precipitation from the Friday night system is gone and we begin to dry out with 850 mb temperatures around -2C. However, that puts us into drizzle/freezing drizzle for a few hours as the mid-level moisture strips out, before the lower level moisture does. Things look to stay dry through about 06z/Sun, as the rest of the dry air moves through the region. Moisture begins to move into the U.P. overnight. The forecast area is sandwiched between two systems, a shortwave trough in N Wisconsin, and a beefier system along the Ohio River. The models are expecting the precipitation will drag through N Lower from the northern system, although from experience, a stronger system to the south makes some of these northern systems iffy. The models then suggest that there is a quiet time, Sunday evening, and then the 850 mb temperatures over E Lake Superior and N Lake Michigan begin to drop below -12C by 12z/Mon. And then it gets into the -teens and -20c. LES is more likely by Monday morning.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal at this point.

Extended (Monday through Thursday) . Monday, The last of the systems looks like it is heading east, and there may be some LES as the 850 mb temperatures fall on both the GFS and ECMWF models. Tuesday and Wednesday look dry, but the models begin to go their separate ways as GFS remains much less amplified, and the ECMWF has a deeper 500 mb trough in the N Plains, that would bring some precipitation by the end of the Wednesday. The CMC would side with the GFS in this case. The GFS continues dry weather through Thursday, while the ECMWF has a massive 500 mb cut off low centered over the Lower Great Lakes, with precipitation back into Michigan. Not sure which way to go with this. Wait and watch.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon) Issued at 152 PM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

Fog and low stratus have finally mixed out across northern Lower Michigan with just some remnant stratocu streaming through the region . bases around 2500 feet. VFR weather prevails through the afternoon at all terminal sites. Southwest winds will remain on the gusty side with gusts of 20 to 25 knots common . a few gusts to 30 knots possible. Winds will diminish this evening, with loss of heating/mixing leading to low level wind shear developing, as winds off the surface remain strong through much of the night.

Meanwhile, short-wave feature and subtle surface feature in the northern/central plains this afternoon will progress through the western Great Lakes late tonight through Saturday. This will bring a period of light snow through northern Lower Michigan roughly between 08Z and 15Z Saturday morning. Light snow may end in a brief period of light freezing drizzle/drizzle Saturday morning, although with minimal impacts anticipated at this juncture.

Southwest winds weaken late overnight into Saturday.

MARINE. Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Feb 26 2021

High pressure across the srn Great Lakes will move out over the Atlantic today, while low pressure and a cold front slowly approach the nrn Great Lakes tonight. The pressure gradient tightens up decently over this time for periodic advisory level S/SW gusts. This cold front sags into the region Saturday, bringing a much looser gradient. Speeds will go sub-advisory for Saturday and Saturday night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LHZ346>348. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345- 349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 AM EST Saturday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . BA NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . BA MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
DTLM4 - 9075099 - De Tour Village, MI	9 mi	51 min	SSW 7 G 11	36°F	35°F		1020.3 hPa	29°F
RCKM4 - 9076024 - Rock Cut, MI	29 mi	51 min	SSW 8 G 14				1019.6 hPa
WNEM4 - 9076027 - West Neebish, MI	31 mi	51 min	SSW 13 G 23	37°F			1019.9 hPa	25°F
LTRM4 - 9076032 - Little Rapids, MI	44 mi	51 min	SW 15 G 24	35°F			1019.6 hPa	26°F
SWPM4 - 9076070 - S.W. Pier, MI	47 mi	51 min	SSW 14 G 22	35°F	32°F		1018.8 hPa

Wind History for De Tour Village, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Drummond Island Airport, MI	1 mi	26 min	S 8	10.00 mi	Fair	36°F	27°F	69%	1020.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDRM

Wind History from DRM (wind in knots)

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