Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Rainier, OR

SHORT TERM
Now through Thursday...Ongoing showers continuing in the northern half of the area, bringing rain showers at times through Tuesday afternoon for areas north of Salem. SW Washington lowlands see the best rain accumulations during this time, with a 60-80% chance of exceeding 0.10 inches from now until Tuesday 11pm. South of the OR-WA line, this decreases to 30-50%, mostly limited to higher terrain such as the northern Coast Range and Cascades. During daytime hours on Tuesday, still seeing a 10-15% chance of isolated thunderstorms for SW Washington, with primary impacts expected to be brief bursts of heavier rain and gusty winds. Thunderstorms aside, generally westerly flow throughout Tuesday, with peak gusts up to 20-25 mph, particularly at the coast. Temperatures remain in the low 60s in the Willamette Valley, closer to the mid 50s at the coast.

Wednesday shows a brief ridge pushing into the area, with no real precipitation expected during daytime hours. Temperatures climb to the upper 60s/near 70 in the afternoon in the Willamette Valley, with right around a 50% chance of exceeding 70 degrees in the Portland metro area. This chance is closer to 20-40% for the rest of the interior lowlands. Weak northerly winds under 10 kts throughout daytime hours Wednesday.

Heading into Wednesday night, a weak trough pushes into the area, bringing some rain showers with little to no accumulations anywhere. Even the high Cascades could see maybe around a tenth of an inch total. As such, temperatures remain warm on Thursday despite some weak showers continuing into Thursday morning, with temperatures in the upper 60s throughout the Willamette Valley yet again. /JLiu

LONG TERM
Thursday Night through Monday...For Friday into Saturday, ensemble solutions are coming into better agreement of another weak trough pushing west into the PacNW on Friday, though uncertainty remains on timing. About half of the WPC 500mb clusters suggest the trough will move through the area quickly with ridging returning by Saturday. The other half indicate troughing will continue into Saturday. This is leading to a forecast temperature spread for inland areas of anywhere from the upper 60s to mid 70s on Saturday. At this point, NBM indicates a 55-65% chance of temperatures exceeding 70 degrees.
This probability increases to 70-85% for Sunday with a 30-55% chance of temperatures exceeding 80 degrees as around 75% of clusters show ridging forming somewhere over the Western US and impacting the PacNW, though significant differences remain in location and intensity of the ridging. -HEC

AVIATION
Onshore flow maintains isolated to scattered showers and broken mid level cloud cover across NW OR and SW WA as of 10z Tue, yielding mainly VFR conditions with a few pockets of MVFR cigs along the coast and over the South Willamette Valley around KEUG. Expect these conditions to continue through much of the period, with lingering MVFR cigs mostly resolving by 18z. Showers will mainly be found north of a KTMK-KSLE line, largely diminishing across the area by 03-06z Wed as weak high pressure begins to build into the region. Southwest winds this morning will shift more westerly 21-00z, but generally remaining below 10 kt at most sites.

PDX AND APPROACHES...Predominantly VFR conditions through the TAF period in passing showers, Around a 20-30% chance for intermittent MVFR CIGs through 21z Tue. Southwest winds turning more westerly in the afternoon but remaining below 10 kt. /CB

MARINE
A benign onshore flow regime will maintain scattered showers and light to moderate westerly breezes over the coastal waters through tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through this evening as a mid period period westerly swell keeps seas at or above 10 ft. Seas will subside overnight to 5 to 7 ft by Wednesday morning. Expect relatively calm conditions for the remainder of the week as high pressure yields northerly winds over waters for Wednesday and Thursday, with onshore flow returning Friday into the weekend. Seas remain in the 5 to 7 ft range through mid week, subsiding below 5 ft by Friday. /CB

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210- 251>253-271>273.