Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Finlayson, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Current Conditions/Today:

An upper level trough is pivoting in from the northwest this morning bringing some stratus clouds across northern MN. Rain showers have departed off to the east but the low level cloud may be able to generate some flurries across northern MN this morning. As we advance through the day the upper level trough slides off towards the Great Lakes with surface high pressure settling in and skies clearing into the evening hours.

Sunday:

High pressure begins to shift off to the east with an increasing pressure gradient surging southerly winds into the area. Model soundings show a good mixing day with dry low and mid levels. Fire weather concerns will be elevated as Min RHs fall into the 20s. Wind speeds will be below the criteria for Red Flag Warning but will still be breezy enough that a Special Weather Statement may be needed. Should be a great day for Easter egg hunting with highs in the 50s and 60s.

Panhandle Hook (Sunday evening - Monday)

A deep trough over the desert southwest will spawn a panhandle hook low out OK and swing it towards the Great Lakes region Sunday through Monday. Ensemble families are showing better clustering of the low moving through southern WI by Monday morning. The Euro still has a slightly farther south solution as opposed to the GEFS. This system looks to bring a swath of moisture through NW WI as the deformation axis moves through the area. PWATs increase to 0.80" which still remains in the normal range for climatology at this time of year. Probabilistic guidance suggests a 50% chance of NW WI seeing 0.50" of rain with the probabilities increasing as you move SE. There is some concern for snow to mix in during Monday. The morning timeframe could see some dendrites in the Arrowhead and in into NW WI but we warm rather quickly at the surface during the day so impacts of snow in the morning are negligible. There is one more chance of snow with this system in the late evening as the system departs. The NBM is showing a 20-30% chance of an inch of snow in the Gogebic range and portions of the North Shore. However, surface temperatures largely remain over 10 degrees above freezing and only start to dip near freezing as the event is winding down. So these probs, albeit low, still seem a little overly optimistic.

Midweek

We remain in a fairly active and wet pattern through mid week. Our next system is a Northern Plains low for Tuesday that ejects northeast towards Ontario. Thermal profiles remain warm enough that this should be an all rain event. There could also be some rumbles of thunder as well as some elevated instability will be present. A brief reprieve in the action for Wednesday before another round on Thursday comes sliding through the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A line of showers is exiting NW WI this evening with MVFR stratus sinking south across northern MN. Upstream observations in Canada have some ceilings as low as IFR. This cloud deck is expected to continue south through the night with IFR conditions most likely at INL and MVFR further south. Skies will begin to clear up in the early afternoon with clear skies and variable winds by tomorrow evening.

MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025

West winds of 5-10 knots continue through the day Saturday. Winds will start to back to our of the southeast overnight. By Sunday afternoon winds will begin to increase out of the Northeast with rain entering from the south Sunday evening. Winds may be hazardous to small vessels by Monday morning as northeasterlies speeds increase.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.