Friday, October30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Isle, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 6:07PM Friday October 30, 2020 6:03 AM CDT (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 5:02PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LSZ145 Expires:202009030600;;239500 Fzus73 Kdlh 030501 Mwsdlh Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Duluth Mn 1201 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020 Lsz141>145-162-030600- 1201 Am Cdt Thu Sep 3 2020
.an area of Thunderstorms approaching western lake superior... The areas affected include... Duluth mn to port wing wi... Grand marais to taconite harbor mn... Lake superior west of a line from saxon harbor wi to grand portage mn beyond 5nm... Silver bay harbor to two harbors mn... Taconite harbor to silver bay harbor mn... Two harbors to duluth mn... At 1159 pm cdt, doppler radar indicated an area of Thunderstorms, capable of producing winds to around 30 knots. This area of Thunderstorms was located along a line extending from far northern st. Louis county southwest to around grand rapids, moving east at 50 knots. The area of Thunderstorms will approach the nearshore waters of the north shore of lake superior, including the duluth and superior harbor between 1 and 130 am cdt. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This area of Thunderstorms will likely produce winds up to 33 knots...and could pose a serious hazard for boaters. A special marine warning may eventually be required. Boaters should consider heading for shore before this storm arrives. && lat...lon 4668 9224 4681 9211 4714 9150 4758 9088 4773 9055 4777 9038 4669 9173 4666 9193 4666 9203 4671 9210 4665 9212 4668 9230
LSZ145


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Isle, MN
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location: 46.14, -93.46     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 300755 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

Weak isentropic/frontal band that moved into western MN last night has been struggling to produce much precip since about 6z as moisture in the DGZ dries out. This has been leaving us with just clouds, with the loss of moisture in the DGZ also resulting in a cessation of precipitation generation. These clouds will linger over MN much of the morning, but mostly sunny skies are expected this afternoon as southerly winds develop, pushing the stratus up into northern MN. Despite the sunshine, 925 mb temps will be down around 0c, so we'll only see highs get up into the lower 40s at best.

Tonight, southwest winds ramp up, which will limit temperature drops, with lows expected to be reached early in the night, with temps slowly rising later in the night. Not much has changed with the timing of the front, with the main area of uncertainty being how much cloud cover do we see along it. NAM/GFS have rather thick stratus coming up with the front for Saturday, which would likely keep temps from getting into the 50s. The ECMWF has a little less cloud cover, with highs in the 50s for along/south of the I-94 corridor as a result. We stuck close to the NBM, which goes the cooler/cloudier route. For winds, they look better Saturday night, but we should be seeing gusts over 30 mph out in western MN by the end of the day on Saturday.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Oct 30 2020

For the beginning of November, the long term will feature something you don't see much of here this time of year, a stretch of at least 4 days in a row (Mon-Thu) with little, if any cloud cover. These sunny skies also look to come with mild temperatures, with highs in the 50s Monday, going to the 60s Tue-Thu.

The start of the long term will feature strong CAA and breezy northwest winds Saturday night. There's certainly potential for winds to come in higher than currently forecast Saturday night, but it will be determined by how deep we mix, but the GFS continues to show potential for 40+ mph wind gusts Saturday night. Temperatures will be crashing as well, with highs only expected to be in the 30s the first day of November. After Sunday though, ridging arrives, along with a mild and dry Pacific airmass. Did boost NBM highs Tuesday and Wednesday, which look to be the warmest two days next week, moving highs toward the 75th percentile of the model spread. Confidence begins to decrease for the temperature forecast Thursday and Friday, with the potential for a cold front to move through. If it does, we would see temps take a step back toward normal to end the week. If it stays aways, then it would be a couple of more days with widespread highs in the 60s, with little cloud cover.

Just beyond this 7 day forecast is where ensembles continue to show the next significant pattern shift occurring, as the flow becomes quite amplified, with a trough digging across the western CONUS, and a ridge building up the eastern seaboard. This loads the pattern up for the potential of a significant mid-latitude cyclone developing, with the EPS continuing to highlight the potential for a powerful system impacting the region in the Nov 9 - Nov 11 time window. Till then, enjoy our quiet weather.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1047 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2020

Cloudy skies will prevail overnight thru much of Friday as a weak disturbance aloft moves across the area. Radar composites show a broad area of precipitation crossing over from southeastern ND into west-central MN. This precip swath is expected to diminish in area/intensity overnight while it slides southeast over much of central-southern MN. Have indicated best potential for precipitation in the TAFs, including keeping the p-type as all -SN. There are some indications that the p-type could mix with or change to -FZRA at times but any durations of such are not expected to last long for a mention in the TAF at this time but its potential is non-zero. Any and all precip will be confined to the MN TAF sites as no models indicate the precip making it into WI. The precip will diminish prior to daybreak then it will be a slow progression from low VFR stratus to breaking out into SCT mid-level clouds by late afternoon. Winds will go light/variable overnight then pick up from the S during the day Friday with speeds 5-10kt.

KMSP . VFR to start and through the evening hours with cloud cover increasing/lowering going into the early morning hours Friday. Small chances for -SHSN overnight but enough to warrant mention. Any icy precip is expected to remain W and S of MSP so have kept -FZRA mention out of MSP. Will monitor trends and see if any adjustments need to be made in later TAFs but am not expecting as such at this time.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT . MVFR cigs. Wind SW 10-20 kts bcmg NW 20G35 kts. SUN . Chc MVFR cigs. NW 20G30 kts. MON . VFR. Wind W at 10G20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MN . None. WI . None.

SHORT TERM . MPG LONG TERM . MPG AVIATION . JPC


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DULM5 - 9099064 - Duluth, MN 85 mi45 min S 2.9 G 6 30°F 48°F1022.1 hPa21°F

Wind History for Duluth, MN
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Mora Municipal Airport, MN20 mi68 minN 010.00 miOvercast28°F24°F86%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KJMR

Wind History from JMR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE3N4N4N5NW6CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSE3S4S6SW6SW5S8SW6SW4NW4NW8NW6NW6NW6N6
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2 days agoSW3S5S5S7SW9SW9SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Duluth, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.