Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vineland, MN
November 28, 2023 4:48 PM CST (22:48 UTC)
Sunrise 7:31AM Sunset 4:37PM Moonrise 5:14PM Moonset 9:19AM
Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 282020 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 220 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures warm to seasonal values for the remainder of the week.
- Chances for precipitation remain uncertain for this weekend and into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
The coldest morning of the Fall season dropped temperatures into the single digits, to even a few degrees below zero across west/central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The upcoming forecast brings good news for those that are not quite ready for the Winter chill, as temperatures will climb back to seasonal values over the coming days. Dry weather will be the theme through the end of the work week.
A surface warm front is located near the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota early this afternoon. The front is progged to advance east through the afternoon, though its progression in tandem with the diurnal temperatures curve will result in a notable temperature gradient across the area. Locations across western Minnesota have warmed above the freezing mark, with highs on track to finish in the upper 30s to even the low 40s along the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures will run significantly cooler east of the front, with sub-freezing high temperatures in the 20s and low 30s at best for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It will not be nearly as cold tonight, with lows in the lower 20s for most locations.
The warmest day of the work week arrives Wednesday, as southwest flow within a wing of warm air advection increases. RAP forecast soundings depict a favorable setup for mixing, thus we have leaned towards the NBM 75th percentile for tomorrow's high temperature forecast. Temperatures will not only climb back above freezing, but are projected to finish above normal at our climate sites. 40s are expected across much of the southern half of Minnesota. High temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, in the upper 30s, across western Wisconsin.
A dry cold front will move through Thursday, which will shut the warm advection down and kick the winds out of the northwest for the rest of the work week. Despite this wind shift, the magnitude of cold air advection will not be nearly as significant as was observed over the past few days, thus we're still looking at seasonal high temperatures in the 30s. Surface high pressure will build in behind the FROPA, which will keep things dry into the start of the weekend.
A significant amount of forecast uncertainty remains in the long- term, as global guidance continues to advertise a progressive trough moving across CONUS in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. As noted by the overnight shift, the ensemble suite is looking less impressive as far as QPF potential to close the upcoming weekend. Differences remain with regards to track and intensity of a potential system, however there seems to be enough confidence to say that any potential wintry weather this weekend would be on the relatively minor side of things. We'll continue to fine tune where and when any snowflakes may fall. Beyond that, CPC forecasts continue to feature high probabilities for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation to open December.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. Mainly high clouds through this evening, along with passing mid-level clouds with SCT coverage. Skies will clear out tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to back to S to SSW then gradually veer to SW and W tonight into Wednesday. Wind speeds of 10-15kts gusting to up to 20kts this afternoon before dropping to around 10kts overnight into tomorrow. LLWS may develop over E MN and W WI as a warm front lifts through tonight and a LLWS group may need to be added to RNH and EAU.
KMSP... A period of 35 to 40kts LLWS after 00z this evening as a warm front moves through E MN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming SW.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 220 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
KEY MESSAGES
- Temperatures warm to seasonal values for the remainder of the week.
- Chances for precipitation remain uncertain for this weekend and into early next week.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 PM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
The coldest morning of the Fall season dropped temperatures into the single digits, to even a few degrees below zero across west/central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. The upcoming forecast brings good news for those that are not quite ready for the Winter chill, as temperatures will climb back to seasonal values over the coming days. Dry weather will be the theme through the end of the work week.
A surface warm front is located near the border of the Dakotas and Minnesota early this afternoon. The front is progged to advance east through the afternoon, though its progression in tandem with the diurnal temperatures curve will result in a notable temperature gradient across the area. Locations across western Minnesota have warmed above the freezing mark, with highs on track to finish in the upper 30s to even the low 40s along the Buffalo Ridge. Temperatures will run significantly cooler east of the front, with sub-freezing high temperatures in the 20s and low 30s at best for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. It will not be nearly as cold tonight, with lows in the lower 20s for most locations.
The warmest day of the work week arrives Wednesday, as southwest flow within a wing of warm air advection increases. RAP forecast soundings depict a favorable setup for mixing, thus we have leaned towards the NBM 75th percentile for tomorrow's high temperature forecast. Temperatures will not only climb back above freezing, but are projected to finish above normal at our climate sites. 40s are expected across much of the southern half of Minnesota. High temperatures will run a few degrees cooler, in the upper 30s, across western Wisconsin.
A dry cold front will move through Thursday, which will shut the warm advection down and kick the winds out of the northwest for the rest of the work week. Despite this wind shift, the magnitude of cold air advection will not be nearly as significant as was observed over the past few days, thus we're still looking at seasonal high temperatures in the 30s. Surface high pressure will build in behind the FROPA, which will keep things dry into the start of the weekend.
A significant amount of forecast uncertainty remains in the long- term, as global guidance continues to advertise a progressive trough moving across CONUS in the Sunday/Monday timeframe. As noted by the overnight shift, the ensemble suite is looking less impressive as far as QPF potential to close the upcoming weekend. Differences remain with regards to track and intensity of a potential system, however there seems to be enough confidence to say that any potential wintry weather this weekend would be on the relatively minor side of things. We'll continue to fine tune where and when any snowflakes may fall. Beyond that, CPC forecasts continue to feature high probabilities for above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation to open December.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023
VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. Mainly high clouds through this evening, along with passing mid-level clouds with SCT coverage. Skies will clear out tonight into Wednesday morning. Winds will continue to back to S to SSW then gradually veer to SW and W tonight into Wednesday. Wind speeds of 10-15kts gusting to up to 20kts this afternoon before dropping to around 10kts overnight into tomorrow. LLWS may develop over E MN and W WI as a warm front lifts through tonight and a LLWS group may need to be added to RNH and EAU.
KMSP... A period of 35 to 40kts LLWS after 00z this evening as a warm front moves through E MN.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Thu...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts becoming SW.
Sat...VFR. Wind SE 10 kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.
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Airport Reports
EDIT (on/off) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KBRD BRAINERD LAKES RGNL,MN | 22 sm | 55 min | SSW 13G27 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 30°F | 16°F | 55% | 29.83 |
Wind History from BRD
(wind in knots)
Duluth, MN,
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