Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vineland, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Today into tonight...Warm and breezy day on tap today with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. A tightening pressure gradient will bring breezy winds out of the south, with gusts 30-35mph possible in Western Minnesota. As the front passes overnight, winds will flip out of north / northwest. A vigorous shortwave will drive a low pressure system over central Canada along with a trailing cold front that will bring a round of much needed precipitation to northwestern Minnesota. However, prospects of more than a quarter inch of rain are low across our forecast area. Guidance hints at some attempts at mid-afternoon elevated showers north and west of the Twin Cities, though capping and ample dry air in the lower levels will limit coverage (and much in the way of precipitation reaching the surface). Our main round of precip will arrive late Monday night into Tuesday morning. The SPC has issued a Day 1 Slight Risk for much of northwest and north central Minnesota, with the eastern extent of the Slight Risk covering the northwestern half of Stevens, Douglas, & Todd counties. The most intense convection will occur across the Red River Valley and is forecast to weaken as it moves east overnight. Still, there may be a few instances of damaging wind or hail across western Minnesota.

Tuesday and Wednesday...Recent guidance suggests that convection reinvigorates near the MN/IA border during the day on Tuesday, although confidence is higher for precip on the Iowa side. Have amended PoPs near the border to reflect this change. We've also introduced a mention of patchy smoke into the grids on Tuesday following the passage of the front. However, confidence is low on air quality effects and trends will need to be monitored. We'll get a short break from the heat Tuesday into Wednesday as highs peak in the mid 70s, nearing 80 in the Twin Cities. Dews will fall into the 50s, making for a comfortable couple days!

Thursday onward...The heat we know and love makes a comeback Thursday as highs return to the mid 80s, climbing to the upper 80s Saturday and Sunday. Upper level flow becomes increasingly zonal as we approach the weekend. Precip chances may also return over the weekend, although forcing remains nebulous at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 620 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Showers and storms are ongoing across North Dakota this morning.
Current thinking is that these will stay to the west of KAXN, but will monitor closely over the next 2-3 hours. Otherwise, high clouds and breezy southerly winds are expected today with gusts of 20-30kts by early afternoon. This evening, a cold front will start to move through before weakening overnight. KAXN will have the highest chances for seeing some -TSRA, but opted to go with PROB30s elsewhere until confidence increases. Winds shift behind the front to the west/northwest by the end of the period.

KMSP...Uncertainty is still high on whether KMSP will see any showers early tomorrow morning, but still believe the thunder threat should be minimal. Included a PROB30 for -SHRA for now.
Southerly winds gust to 25-30kts through much of the day today before decreasing slightly overnight and gradually starting the turn to the northwest.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind VRB to SW 5-10kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10G20kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.