Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clatskanie, OR

DISCUSSION
Now through Monday...Conditions continue to trend cooler and drier as the upper level low continues to move inland. Bands of light rain are streaming in from the south/southeast through much of the day. Thick cloud cover and precipitation will keep temperatures much cooler than the last few days with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s inland and mid 50s along the coast. Rain will be light with precipitation totals ranging from a few hundredths up to 0.20 inches west of the Cascades through the evening. Better forcing will push precipitation totals above 0.25 inches to around 0.50 inches during the same time frame. There is a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms confined to the southeastern portion of Lane county. If any storms or more convective precipitation develops, this could lead to locally higher rainfall totals.

A lull in precipitation west of the Cascade foothills is expected during the evening and into the overnight hours as the upper low swings inland. However, a cold front is expected to drop southeast from around Vancouver island, bringing a renewed chance for light rain early Wednesday morning into the afternoon. Rainfall totals on Wednesday should remain light with 0.05-0.25 inches west of the Cascade Foothills, higher end totals over the Coast Range. Totals over the Cascades expected between 0.25-0.50 inches will locally higher amounts possible.

Overall, rainfall totals through Wednesday are expected to range from 0.25 in the lowlands to 0.50 along the Coast Range peaks and closer to 0.5 to 1.0+ inches over the Cascades and Cascade Foothills.

Conditions trend dry and warm Thursday and beyond, though light showers may linger over the Cascades Thursday. Highs jump back into the low to mid 60s inland on Thursday and warm further into the upper 60s to low 70s Friday and through the weekend.
Overnight lows in the 40s expected during this time frame. There is some uncertainty heading into the weekend as a shortwave trough from central Canada swings toward the PacNW. Right now this looks unimpactful but light shower activity is possible along the coast and in the Cascades. PoPs remain quite low, generally less than 20%. Heading into early next week, uncertainty increases with ensembles showing potential for rain to re-enter the forecast. Right now, about 30-40% of ensemble members show rain on Monday. Details remain unclear but should be ironed out in the coming days. -19

AVIATION
A mix of flight conditions as a cold front continues to lift northward through the area, bringing lower CIGs and bands of light rain and showers. Chances for MVFR or lower CIGs increase through Tuesday morning, becoming more widespread. There is a 50-80% chance of MVFR or lower CIGs for most terminals through 21z Tue-00z Wed with the exceptions of KONP and KEUG which are expected to see more notable improvementsbehind the front. Improvement toward VFR conditions is possible after 00z Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Expect west- southwest winds across the region under 10 kt through Tuesday morning, turning slightly more west- northwesterly in the afternoon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions with showers until around 10- 12z Tue. After 12z Tue, CIGs drop to MVFR with the lowest CIGs (1-2 kft) between 12-21z Tue. CIGs improve to high-end MVFR to low-end VFR after 00-03z Wed. Southwesterly winds around 5 kt through 18z Tue, turning more northwesterly in the afternoon.
-19/10

MARINE
Conditions remain benign today with seas hovering around 5 feet and winds becoming westerly around 10 kt.

An upper level low off the coast will support additional showers through Tuesday as the center of the low nears the coast, with seas likely staying under 8 ft and winds staying under 15 kt. By early Wednesday morning, a northwest swell will push seas up to 7 to 8 ft. Seas and winds both increase more considerably Wednesday afternoon and evening with another frontal passage. Expect seas to peak between 10 and 12 ft by Wednesday evening with west to west-northwest winds around 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20-25 kt Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a 50-80% chance seas peak above 10 feet beyond 10 nm offshore and a 30-50% chance for seas above 12 feet over the northern outer waters beyond 30 nm offshore. Seas are expected to be steep, bordering between Small Craft and Hazardous Seas conditions for all waters from Cape Shoalwater down to Cape Foulweather from 11 am Wednesday through 11 am Thursday. Issued a Hazardous Seas watch to account for the uncertainty. Seas are expected to peak closer to 9-10 ft over the inner waters. Winds decrease Wednesday night behind the frontal passage, however seas will remain elevated until significant wave heights fall below 10 ft sometime Thursday morning.

A very strong ebb current is expected this morning with the ebb cycle, pushing seas up to 7 ft with steep ebb chop. Have issued a Small Craft advisory or hazardous bar conditions from 6 am to 10 am this morning. It is likely that another advisory will be needed Wednesday morning given the northwest swell moving into the waters and another strong ebb current during the morning.
-19/23

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM PDT this morning for PZZ210.

Hazardous Seas Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for PZZ210-251-252-271-272.