Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Clatskanie, OR

DISCUSSION
Now through Tuesday...An active pattern is expected to persist through the next 7 days with several disturbances impacting the region. Temps will generally be slightly below average through the weekend.

A very weak shortwave trough is expected to cross the region today, brining with it a chance for light showers into the afternoon. Temps peak slightly below average in the mid 60s inland and mid to upper 50s along the coast. Conditions are expected to dry out through the day as shortwave ridging moves into the area by late afternoon. Dry conditions continue through much of Thursday, though temps will be around 5 degrees below average for this time of year with highs peaking in the low 60s inland and mid 50s along the coast. Another weak shortwave moves into the region as the shortwave ridge breaks down Thursday evening. Another round of light rain is expected with this disturbance. 24 hour rainfall totals from Thursday 11am to Friday 11am are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch with probabilities inland of 10-25% and a bit better at 25-50% along the coast.

The active pattern is expected to continue late Friday into Saturday as the strongest system of the week drops southward along the British Columbia coast, digging into the PacNW coast. Rain will still be light with this system but the probabilities for a tenth and

possibly a quarter of an inch are decent across much of the area. 24 hour probs for a tenth of an inch from 5pm Friday through 5pm Saturday are 50-70% west of the Cascades and generally greater than 70% along the higher terrain. Probabilities for a quarter of an inch during the same time frame are 20-40% west of the Cascades and 40- 70% for the higher terrain.

Sunday through Tuesday should be drier but model guidance does show potential for another weak shortwave to cross the area Monday into Tuesday. Temps during this period should increase back close to normal, into the upper 60s by Tuesday. Model agreement decreases further into the middle of next week with some showing a warm up back above normal toward the 80 degree mark while others keep us in an active, rainy pattern with slightly below temps. -Batz

AVIATION
Mixed MVFR/IFR conditions at all terminals, with showery conditions producing brief drops in ceilings and visibility. Through around 18-20z Wed, drops in visiblity down to 2 miles will be possible at times as heavier showers pass overhead. Around 20-21z Wed, rain ends for the most part, with inland terminals clearing to a scattered VFR deck at that time.
Coastal terminasl continue to see passing marine stratus, with 20-50% chance of occasional MVFR throughout the rest of the period. Northwesterly flow continues at the coast around 10 kts throughout Wednesday afternoon, while inland, southwest winds under 10 kts are expected throughout.

PDX AND APPROACHES.. MVFR cigs at times through around 20z Wed, when cloud deck lifts to VFR conditions. Further clearing expected this afternoon, with a scattered VFR deck expected by 0z Thu.
Southwest winds shifting northwest 5-10 kts Wednesday afternoon.
/JLiu

MARINE
Persistent northwest flow will steadily diminish through Thursday morning, as seas fall from 8-10 ft early this morning to 5-7 ft by Thursday. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect across all coastal waters through 5 AM today as winds and seas subside, while choppy and marginally hazardous conditions may continue within the Columbia River Bar for an additional few hours through 9 AM today following a strong ebb current this morning.

Surface high pressure building toward the coast will see relatively tranquil conditions continue through midweek, before a reinvigorated northwest swell arrives with a frontal system on Friday. Southwest flow ahead of he front will will turn again out of the northwest in its wake, with a 20-40% chance of gale-force gusts beyond 30 NM through the weekend. -Picard

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...None.