Thursday, April22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:10AMSunset 8:10PM Thursday April 22, 2021 4:45 AM PDT (11:45 UTC) Moonrise 1:44PMMoonset 3:36AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 225 Am Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
In the main channel.. - general seas...around 5 feet through Friday. - first ebb...around 145 pm Thursday. Seas to 6 feet. - second ebb...around 245 am Friday. Seas to 6 feet. - third ebb...around 245 pm Friday. Seas to 7 feet.
PZZ200 225 Am Pdt Thu Apr 22 2021
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. High pressure over the coastal waters will continue through Thursday night with fresh swell resulting in steep choppy seas. Low pressure returns to bring increasing southerly winds Friday through the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 220929 CCA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . CORRECTED National Weather Service Portland OR 229 AM PDT Thu Apr 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. Increasing onshore flow will bring cooler temperatures today along with breezy west winds this afternoon. An upper level shortwave ridge will shift eastward across the Cascades on Friday, before a weather system brings widespread rain to the area Friday night into Saturday. Chances for rain continue on Sunday and into early next week as upper level troughing resides over the Pacific Northwest.

SHORT TERM. Today through Saturday night . Satellite observations early this morning showed an area of marine stratus continuing to push through the Coast Range gaps and down the lower Columbia. At 1 AM PDT this morning, the observed pressure gradient between North Bend and Spokane was +11.4 mb. This matches the latest RAP guidance, which shows onshore flow strengthening even more today with values peaking at +14.50 mb by late this morning. This signifies a strong marine surge, which means marine stratus should be able to extend inland all the way to the Cascades by late morning. The latest HREF guidance is capturing this area of marine stratus very well, so this guidance was used to produce the sky cover forecast through tonight. Elevations above 3000 ft should be poking above the marine layer and will thus remain clear. Expect marine stratus to begin breaking up this afternoon, especially over the Willamette Valley where skies should eventually become partly cloudy. Although the previous forecast had a mention of patchy drizzle along the coast this morning, this mentioned has been removed since the marine layer does not appear to be quite as deep as what guidance had previously suggested. Guidance seems to have caught onto this now, with forecast NAM/GFS/HRRR/RAP soundings all showing a marine layer that is simply not deep enough to support drizzle. Interestingly, most of the latest CAM guidance shows a few light showers developing over parts of the forecast area this afternoon, mainly to the north of Salem. That said, forecast soundings support fair weather cumulus clouds this afternoon that will struggle to grow vertically due to a strong temperature inversion beginning around 900 mb. This means showers will be unlikely, however would not be surprised if a few spotty sprinkles occur. Overall today looks like a quiet day with high temperatures ranging from the 50s along and near the coast to the mid 60s across the interior valleys. Westerly surface winds will become a bit breezy this afternoon, sustained between 10 and 15 mph for most locations.

Onshore flow weakens substantially tonight into Friday, with an upper-level shortwave ridge passes over the region Friday morning and afternoon. This initially makes one believe Friday may be slightly warmer than today, but NBM guidance does not support that and keeps high temperatures nearly the same with highs in the mid 60s inland. Upon closer analysis, this makes sense as cloud cover will be increasing significantly on Friday with skies becoming overcast by the early afternoon. Therefore, have went with NBM guidance for highs on Friday. The aforementioned increasing cloud cover will be associated with an incoming weather system, which will bring widespread rain to the region beginning Friday night and continuing into Saturday. It appears a warm front will move northward through the forecast area Saturday morning as it occludes with a cold front moving in from the west during the afternoon. Precipitation should become showery in the post-frontal environment sometime during the afternoon hours, with showers then lingering through Saturday night, especially over higher terrain. Forecast rain amounts for Friday night through Saturday night have not changed much, with amounts between 0.25 and 0.40 inches expected for the interior valleys. Amounts between 0.50 and 0.75 inches are expected along the coast and over the higher terrain of the Coast Range. Snow levels will be relatively high, so only expecting a couple of inches of wet snow at the passes. Lastly, temperatures will be much cooler on Saturday with highs in the 50s across the lowlands. -TK LONG TERM. Sunday through Thursday . The latest iteration of the deterministic EURO/GFS/SREF/Canadian are all in good agreement on Sunday, showing a vertically-stacked closed low making landfall along the OR coast around 18Z Sunday. Ahead of the low, flow will be out of the south over southwest WA and northwest OR. Forecast soundings depict an environment with weak shear and a long/skinny CAPE profile. Although surface-based CAPE values look to be rather low with models and their ensembles favoring values around 300 J/kg or less, cannot rule out a slight chance of weak thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The NBM probability of thunder picks up on this chance, showing probabilities between 15-20 percent across most of the forecast area.

It appears there may be a brief break from the showers Sunday night, at least for the lowlands. A shortwave trough rotating around the back-side of the aforementioned upper low will dive southeastward over the region on Monday, likely bringing another round of showers. High pressure then builds in Monday night into Tuesday, bringing another break from the precipitation along with slightly warmer temperatures with highs back in the mid 60s on Tuesday. Models and their ensembles then begin to diverge quite a bit on Wednesday, which seems to be due to differences between the timing and strength of the next weather system. The deterministic GFS now shows widespread moderate rain with pockets of heavier rain on Wednesday as strong westerly flow taps into tropical moisture and precipitable water values exceeding one inch. That said, the deterministic EURO keeps Wednesday completely dry and brings in the weather system one day later, arriving Thursday morning. The EURO also depicts a weaker system with less available moisture, favoring mainly light rain. The GEFS and EPS ensemble guidance shows a large amount of spread during this time, however most members favor the less wet solution with mainly light rain rather than a period of moderate to possibly heavy rain like the deterministic GFS is suggesting. Would not be surprised if the deterministic EURO is the more likely solution with keeping Wednesday dry and holding off the precipitation until Thursday, as the WPC cluster analysis for 500 mb heights shows fairly high probabilities of upper level ridging over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday. For now, have went with the NBM for the probability of precipitation due to the uncertainty. WPC QPF was used for rain amounts, which agree fairly well with the NBM. -TK

AVIATION. Offshore high pressure will continue to bring a dominant onshore flow for the next 24 hours. As of 09Z, marine stratus is pushing hard up against the west slopes of the coast range with clouds crossing the gaps west of KEUG and up the Columbia River. Clouds are nearing both KPDX and KEUG as well as KCVO and feel it will be 11-12Z before those fields fall under the 010-015 stratus cigs. Quite a bit of MVFR stratus inland Thu AM through clouds will not quite fill the Willamette Valley leaving holes in the decks to south and west of Portland as far south as Salem. This will break apart with VFR after about 18Z Thu through much of pre-dawn hours Fri. Data indicates some stratus may return close to 12Z, especially if winds go light enough to support radiational cooling ahead of an invading cirrus field.

For detailed regional Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: https://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES . Currently VFR, however, the stratus intrusion over the field is imminent as satellite shows clouds have arrived to the north within the 10 nm ring. Expect the 015 cigs will burn off near 18Z with VFR following will into the night. /JBonk

MARINE. No significant changes from the previous package as frequent wind gusts exceeding 21 kts are becoming more confined to the offshore waters. These lingering stronger winds are still expected to diminish to below SCA criteria shortly after daybreak. The residual northerly winds and fresh swell will continue to produce steep choppy 7 to 9 ft seas across most of the waters through Thu morning with patchy 10-12 ft seas across the far NW waters of PZZ270. Then expect periods to lengthen this afternoon, however, may need to extend the SCA for at least a few hours into the afternoon depending on just how quickly the periods lengthen.

High pressure weakens Thursday and Friday as a front approaches the coastal waters. Models have come into slightly better agreement with this system forecast to arrive late Fri and bring a cold front across the waters Saturday. The strongest solutions in the latest model runs do not quite reach Gales, but could see southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 kt. Seas will likely remain less than 10 feet through the weekend. JBonk/DDH

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until noon PDT today for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi46 min SW 8 G 11 50°F 55°F1014.7 hPa (-1.0)
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi20 min 51°F6 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi26 min WNW 14 G 18
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi46 min W 5.1 G 8 50°F 55°F1014.1 hPa (-1.0)
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi50 min 49°F7 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi46 min 1016.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi51 minSW 69.00 miOvercast49°F44°F83%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

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Last 24hrNW5CalmNE3CalmN3E5Calm3W10W9
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4E53N5N7N7NW11NW14NW12NW15NW16NW11W11W7W5SW5W5NW7W4SW4CalmW5
2 days agoSE6SE5SE5SE7SE5E65W5N5N5W10W10W8W5W7W5NW5CalmCalmSW4SW4CalmS3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
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Thu -- 03:54 AM PDT     3.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:42 AM PDT     7.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:31 PM PDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:10 PM PDT     7.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.954.13.53.23.64.45.46.36.976.55.33.82.51.40.70.71.42.64.15.66.77.2

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Columbia River, Washington
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Chinook
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Thu -- 03:21 AM PDT     3.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:36 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:16 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:25 AM PDT     6.78 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:44 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:58 PM PDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:13 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:53 PM PDT     6.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.54.743.63.64.14.95.76.46.76.75.94.63.11.810.60.91.93.14.55.86.77

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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