Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:11 PM Moonrise 7:25 PM   Moonset 5:00 AM

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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 140 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 8 pm pdt this evening - .
In the main channel -
General seas - 4 to 5 ft through Wednesday afternoon.
First ebb - Ebb current of 3.75 kt at 526 pm Tuesday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
SEcond ebb - Ebb current of 5.57 kt at 537 am Wednesday. Seas 4 ft.
Third ebb - Ebb current of 3.55 kt at 558 pm Wednesday. Seas 4 to 5 ft.

PZZ200 140 Pm Pdt Tue Apr 23 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pressure over the waters will maintain gusty northerly and northeasterly winds today. Winds weaken and turn more westerly Wednesday as high pressure breaks down. Seas drop slightly on Wednesday. The next frontal system arrives Thursday, returning gusty southwesterly winds.

FXUS66 KPQR 232305 AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 405 PM PDT Tue Apr 23 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure aloft is leading to a mostly sunny and warm day today across much of the Pac NW, though sea breezes are keeping the coast cooler with some patches of low stratus. High pressure will weaken and shift eastward through Wednesday; meanwhile a weak Pacific frontal system will approach the Pac NW coast. Drizzle or light rain will be possible along the coast by Wed morning, but inland areas will likely see rain hold off until Wed night or Thu morning as the next, better organized frontal system approaches the coast. This frontal system will mark the beginning of a prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather, with snow possible down to the Cascade passes as soon as Thu night/Fri morning.



SHORT TERM
Now through Friday...Dry and unseasonably warm weather persists across much of SW Washington and NW Oregon today, with the only real exception being along portions of the immediate coast where sea breezes have kept temps in the mid 50s to lower 60s (as is often the case in the summer). Steepening lapse rates have led to significant thunderstorm development to our south, but this activity has remained south of the OR/CA border. A drier air mass has kept this type of convection out of our CWA - and as of 3 PM no cumulus development has occurred yet in the Lane County Cascades or elsewhere.

Upwelling from NW breezes along the coast are allowing a shallow marine inversion to develop, with some low clouds already beginning to develop along the coast as of this afternoon. Suspect these low clouds will become more widespread overnight as 500 mb heights gradually lower and the marine layer becomes deeper. By Wednesday morning, we could start to see some areas of drizzle along the coast, and the deepening marine layer may also lead to some marine stratus pushing inland Wednesday morning. Suspect this cloud layer will be shallow and broken enough to clear out for the afternoon, allowing afternoon temps to approach 70 degrees for some inland valleys later Wed afternoon. That said, 18z runs of the NAM/GFS have trended colder aloft, with 850 mb temps generally in the +1 to +3 deg C range. Even when mixed down dry adiabatically to the surface, the Willamette Valley would struggle to get above the 60s with 850 mb temps that cool.

Clouds lower/thicken in earnest Wednesday night as a fairly well organized (but weak) low pressure system approaches the Pac NW coast, along with its attendant warm front. Rain becomes likely throughout the forecast area late Wed night/early Thu morning. With total precipitable water values in the 0.8-1.0" range, precipitation will probably be modest despite decent forcing. NBM deterministic QPF suggests the lowlands will receive 0.50-0.75" of rain by Friday morning, with QPF in the mountains ranging from 0.75-1.25" south of Highway 20 and 1-2" to the north. So, after about two weeks of relatively dry weather, this system will be a beneficial rain maker for the valleys. After this warm front moves through, the associated upper trough and low pressure will settle in near the Pac NW, pushing a weak cold front through and allowing for some cold advection later Thursday into Friday. NBM probabilistic guidance shows a 50/50 chance of snow levels lowering to the Cascade passes by 5 AM Friday, so any snow for the passes themselves will probably be wet with a very low snow-to-liquid ratio. The higher ski resort elevations above 5000 ft should see a few inches of snow, but advisory-level accumulations of 6 inches or more will likely be relegated to elevations above 6000 ft. For the lowlands, the upper trough will maintain slow moving rain showers, with about a 10-20% chance of enough instability to support a thunderstorm or two. Temperatures will be considerably cooler Friday afternoon, with highs struggling to climb above the 50s anywhere in our CWA Weagle

LONG TERM
Friday through next Tuesday...Longer range forecast models strongly suggest that once the upper trough arrives Thursday, cool and unsettled weather will prevail through the weekend and well into next week. The majority of 12z ECMWF ensemble members bring in another upper low/trough with a reinforcing shot of cool air, maintaining the possibility of late season snow for the Cascade passes and above into early next week. For the lowlands, just expect cool and showery weather more reminiscent of early April rather than the end of April. Depending on the amount of clearing each night, the air mass will be cold enough to maintain the threat of morning frost as early as Saturday and likely well into next week. Therefore it is probably still a bit early to plant sensitive vegetation, regardless of how warm we have been today. Weagle

AVIATION
A front is beginning to move in, but high pressure persists enough to keep all inland terminals VFR throughout the TAF period. High clouds are moving in throughout today, with ceilings beginning to lower (though remaining VFR) at all terminals late Tuesday night. After 03z this evening, the front approaches close enough for low marine clouds to begin setting in at coastal terminals, with a 70% chance of MVFR cigs developing first at KONP, then KAST. Chance of IFR cigs is about 10-20%, but MVFR looks to be the dominant possibility.

Notes: The ASOS at KTTD is only available via the dial in option.
The AWOS at KMMV is still out of commission. As it is not maintained locally by the National Weather Service, there is no estimated time of repair.

PDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions continue throughout, with fairly light winds and high clouds. In the latter half of Tuesday night, an approaching front is expected to begin lowering cigs, but not enough to drop to MVFR thresholds. /JLiu

MARINE
Observations at buoy 46050 at 2:30 PM PDT are showing northerly winds 15 to 20 kts, with gusts to 25 kt. Winds are currently low-end Small Craft Advisory level, though winds will slightly turn NNW over this afternoon. Gusts are in the process of dying down, with the Small Craft Advisory expiring at 8pm PDT; winds calm considerably for the rest of the night. Swells are currently around 4-6 ft at 9 seconds, and will remain around that level until Friday.

The next front arrives Thursday, with around a 80% chance of SW gusts meeting Small Craft Advisory criteria. Seas will rise slowly on from Thursday onwards, with possibility for double digit seas by the end of the weekend. /JLiu

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ210-251.

Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for PZZ252-253- 271>273.

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Warrenton
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Tue -- 01:23 AM PDT     8.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:00 AM PDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 02:14 PM PDT     7.11 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:48 PM PDT     2.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon, Tide feet

Chinook
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Tue -- 01:06 AM PDT     8.01 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:00 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:13 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:27 AM PDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:57 PM PDT     6.85 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:51 PM PDT     Full Moon
Tue -- 07:15 PM PDT     2.22 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:14 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:24 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Chinook, Baker Bay, Columbia River, Washington, Tide feet

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