Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Warrenton, OR

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:45AMSunset 4:59PM Sunday January 19, 2020 1:44 AM PST (09:44 UTC) Moonrise 2:56AMMoonset 12:57PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ210 Columbia River Bar- 815 Pm Pst Sat Jan 18 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday evening...
In the main channel.. - general seas...13 to 15 ft, easing to 10 to 12 ft Sunday morning, then briefly easing to 7 to 9 ft Sunday evening through Monday morning. - first ebb...around 1145 pm tonight. Seas to 17 ft with breakers likely. - second ebb...around 1215 pm Sunday. Seas to 14 ft. - third ebb...around 1245 am Monday. Seas to 11 ft.
PZZ200 815 Pm Pst Sat Jan 18 2020
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast.. Winds will slowly diminish through Sunday. The next frontal system moves across the waters Sunday night. A stronger system impacts the waters Monday night which may produce gale force wind. The active weather pattern looks to continue through most of next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warrenton, OR
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location: 46.17, -123.92     debug


Area Discussion for - Portland, OR
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FXUS66 KPQR 190520 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Portland OR 919 PM PST Sat Jan 18 2020

Updated aviation and marine sections

SYNOPSIS. Plenty of clouds tonight into Sunday, as a weak system lifts north across region. Then, dry weather returns on Sunday, along with some sunshine and mild temperatures. However, a new parade of fronts will bring valley rain and mountain snow back to the region for next week.

SHORT TERM. Tonight through Monday . Finally, mild Pacific air has arrived, as apparent from afternoon temperatures in the 50s along the coast, and into the south and central Willamette Valley. But, still chilly over the Cascades and through the Columbia River Gorge. But, temperatures have warmed into the middle 30s in the Columbia River Gorge, with occasional light rain or drizzle reported. Still may have few wet snowflakes mixed in the rain for that area, but little if any additional impacts expected.

Models continue to show a weak boundary lifting north across the region later tonight into early Sunday morning. All models have been showing this, with best depiction in the 290K isentrope. Though primary lift will be over the Coast and Coast range, and inland to north of Salem. So, will boost PoPs and QPF a tad, with occasional rain for that area, and only a chance of rain elsewhere. This lift area will shift farther north early Sunday, with rain mostly along the WA coast and far northwest Oregon coast, and nearby coastal mtns. QPF not all that much, with most areas will get 0.01 to 0.05 of an inch tonight into Sunday am, though areas in the Coast Range and Willapa Hills will get 0.10 to 0.20 inch. Will gradually decrease those PoPs as the day progresses.

Rest of the region should see a rather pleasant mid-January day, with light southeasterly flow, variable clouds and temperatures in the upper 40s to lower 50s. But, with snow on the ground, and return of light offshore flow, areas in the Columbia Gorge and Hood Valley will struggle to reach 40 deg.

Increasing clouds for Sunday night as next system slowly approaches from the west. But, this weakening front will bring spotty rain to the coast by Monday am, with chance inland. With front weakening, may not see much in way of rain east of the Coast mtns. Still mild, with highs the middle to upper 40s. Snow levels stay 5000 to 6000 ft Sunday night into Mon, but will lower closer to 5000 ft later Mon.

Next system of significance will arrive later Mon night and Tue, with rain increasing. Snow levels initially at 4500 to 5500 feet Mon night, but lower back to 3000 to 4000 feet on Tue. So, will see more snow pile up in the Cascades on Tuesday. /Rockey

LONG TERM. Tuesday night through Saturday . A progressive weather pattern continues next week with a series of fronts moving across the region every 24 hours or so. The models vary on the details of each system, challenging the forecast confidence on the timing of the fronts and consequential precipitation.

GFS is an outlier for the first two fronts expected Tuesday night and Wednesday night so leaned towards a ECMWF/CMC blend. QPF is not impressive with the Tue system, but the modeled precipitable water values are close to 0.9 inch on Wednesday and there could be a healthy dose of Cascade snow at and above 3k feet. Determining actual snow amounts is very difficult that far out, but there is a chance for advisory snow amounts for the Cascades Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

Leaned towards the NBM for the subsequent weather systems due to the weighting towards ensemble members. The snow levels will rise to around 5k feet on Thursday as another fairly moist front is expected. The snow levels may briefly rise to 6000 feet with a moist warm front Thursday night, then settle around 5k feet Friday and next Saturday. ~TJ

AVIATION. A stationary front is situated across far NW Oregon/SW Washington and extends south-southwest off the coast. This front will drift north and transition to a warm front overnight. Inland areas south of Portland are in the warm air with VFR cigs. The Coast and Metro terminals are sitting under a MVFR cig generally running 010-020. Increasing south winds along the coast will get offset by light precipitation moving north along the front to keep MVFR cigs. This appears to also be the case for KHIO, KPDX, and KTTD, but am less confident as one heads further east. As the front lifts north, expect gaps in the clouds to bring decent fog potential for the Willamette valley but feel there will be enough south wind to keep just enough mixing to prevent it from forming. Expect the areas which remain MVFR after 09Z will stay that way through not longer than roughly 21Z. Expect improving to occur from the south and east.

KPDX AND APPROACHES . MVFR cigs 020-030 will likely dominate through 12Z with a less likely chance to remain until near 18Z before improving to VFR. Full visual approach rates should be available at or after 19/21Z. /JBonk

MARINE. Winds are remaining slightly elevated above model guidance this evening as the stationary front is allowing a focus mechanism. Fresh swell from this set-up is keeping seas a few feet above WW3 data running 17-19 ft. Do not see much movement in the stationary front for the next several hours and have updated the winds and seas to maintain this slightly enhanced environment. That will offset the previously expected brief easing in conditions. As such, have extended the existing advisories to cover the next cold front arriving Sunday night with winds gusting around 30 kt and seas remaining in the mid to upper teens until then.

There is a decent chance for gale force gusts Monday night as a stronger frontal system traverses the waters. Have indicated 35-40 kt gusts with this system. Generally followed the ECMWF Tue and beyond. Another warm front is expected to move through the waters late Tue night into Wed morning, which may result in another round of gale force gusts. Seas expected to hold in the lower to mid teens Monday and then build into the mid to upper teens Tuesday. JBonk/Weishaar

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. OR . None. WA . None. PZ . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for coastal waters from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 60 NM.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Sunday for Columbia River Bar.



Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSPortland www.twitter.com/NWSPortland

This discussion is for Northwest oregon and Southwest Washington from the Cascade crest to 60 nm offshore. This area is commonly referred to as the forecast area.


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ASTO3 - 9439040 - Astoria, OR 8 mi62 min 46°F 42°F1023.2 hPa
46243 - Clatsop Spit, OR - 162 11 mi44 min 49°F16 ft
46029 - COL RIVER BAR - 20NM West of Columbia River Mouth 30 mi54 min SSE 16 G 21 50°F 49°F13 ft1022.6 hPa (-0.4)49°F
TOKW1 - 9440910 - Toke Point, WA 37 mi62 min 46°F 45°F1023.6 hPa
46248 - Astoria Canyon, OR (179) 38 mi44 min 49°F16 ft
TLBO3 - 9437540 - Garibaldi, Tillamook Bay, OR 42 mi62 min 48°F1023.8 hPa

Wind History for Astoria, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Astoria, Astoria Regional Airport, OR2 mi49 minESE 510.00 miOvercast47°F44°F90%1023.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KAST

Wind History from AST (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmE5E5NE9E5SE7E5E6E5CalmE5E7SE6S5SE7SE9SE9SE10SE10E10E9SE11SE9SE9
2 days agoS6S5W7SW5W8SW3E4E3E5E3SE4N4CalmE7NE4NW4CalmS4E3SE4SE5E3SE3SE3

Tide / Current Tables for Warrenton, Skipanon River, Columbia River, Oregon
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Warrenton
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:40 AM PST     2.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:55 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:51 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:12 AM PST     9.09 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:57 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:16 PM PST     0.86 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM PST     6.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.42.82.73.34.567.48.59.18.87.76.24.42.81.50.91.11.93.14.55.76.46.55.8

Tide / Current Tables for Chinook, Baker Bay, Columbia River, Washington
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Chinook
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:07 AM PST     2.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:56 AM PST     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:52 AM PST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:55 AM PST     8.73 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:57 PM PST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:43 PM PST     0.85 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:01 PM PST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:15 PM PST     6.31 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.93.13.95.16.57.68.58.78.26.95.23.62.11.10.91.42.33.54.85.86.36.15.4

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Portland, OR (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Portland, OR
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