Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cathlamet, WA

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cathlamet, WA

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Area Discussion for - Portland, OR

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FXUS66 KPQR 281928 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 1227 PM PDT Sun May 28 2023

SYNOPSIS
Persistent onshore flow will bring seasonable to slightly above normal temperatures over the next week. Temperatures will peak around 80 degrees for Memorial Day before cooling back to near normal for mid week. Dry conditions look to continue through at least Saturday aside from a 10 to 20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Lane County Cascades during the afternoon and evening hours today.

DISCUSSION
Sunday through Saturday night...Weak upper level high pressure is building over the PacNW today as a closed low to our south is slated to move southwest along the northern to central California coast. Instability wrapping around the north of the closed low will barely push into the southern corner of the CWA, creating a 10-20% chance of showers and thunderstorms in the Cascades of Lane County this afternoon and evening. Stronger showers and thunderstorms are forecast to stay south and west of the forecast area. Otherwise, dry weather with onshore flow will be the persistent forecast through the upcoming week. Temperatures today and tomorrow will be the warmest of the week with valley locations in the mid to upper 70s, pushing 80 for Memorial Day tomorrow.

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement that the southern edge of longwave troughing from a parent trough situated in the Gulf of Alaska will push into the PacNW Tuesday with multiple shortwaves along the flow moving over the region into Friday. The main impact of this will be temperatures cooling back to near normal for late May/early June, which is low 70s across the Valley. Additionally, surface pressure gradients will tighten each afternoon and evening, causing an increase in onshore winds, especially along the coast and the Columbia River. Cloud cover will increase, and depending on how long stratus lingers inland, some Valley locations could struggle to reach 70 degrees for the high temperature Wednesday and Thursday. NBM indicates only about a 35-55% chance of locations in the Willamette Valley and into Vancouver, WA reaching 70 degrees these days.

Beyond Thursday, ensemble guidance becomes a little more uncertain, but the overall consensus is the upper trough currently in the Gulf of Alaska will deepen significantly over the eastern Pacific Friday into the weekend, and strong upper level high pressure building over the Midwest. With NW Oregon and SW Washington stuck in between this pattern, temperatures are expect to warm, but just how much temperatures will warm will depend on how far west high pressure can spread. For now will still with the NBM deterministic forecast, which indicates warming into the upper 70s by Friday and low 80s for the weekend across the valley and upper 60s by Friday and 70s for the weekend for the coast and mountains. -HEC

AVIATION
Dry northerly flow aloft continues, with band of high clouds passing across region through this evening. Low level flow dominated by high pres that sits offshore into western Washington.
As such, will maintain north to northwest flow closer to the surface. Most of the marine stratus will stay along the coast and over the Pac, especially to north of KTMK. But, will see that stratus push back onshore this evening, though may stay just offshore from Newport southward until late tonight.

Farther inland, VFR under variable high clouds. Still have pockets of marine stratus over sw Washington until late afternoon. Tonight similar to Sat night/Sun am, with marine stratus surging up the Columbia River again, reaching PDX/VUO metro by daybreak Mon.
Think areas to south of Aurora will stay mostly clear.

For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to: http://weather.gov/zse

KPDX AND APPROACHES...Scattered MVFR/low VFR clouds to the north and east, otherwise, VFR under variable high clouds into this evening. Am expecting another round of MVFR stratus to arrive towards daybreak Monday, and like Sunday, will take good part of morning to break back to VFR and scattered clouds. /Rockey

MARINE
Persistent pattern across the coastal waters as high pressure remains over the ne Pacific, with thermal low pres along the south Oregon coast into nw Calif. This somewhat tight pressure gradient will maintain northerly winds on the coastal waters, with strongest winds in the afternoons/evenings to south of Cascade Head. Will extend current small craft advisory for Cape Falcon to Florence through Tue evening, as will maintain gusty winds at times. May drop off from time to time, but think best to keep broad-brushed advisory up.

Will extend Small Craft Advisory to include the coastal waters between Cape Shoalwater to Cape Falcon, as gradient tightens a bit more on Tue. Likely enough to support gusts 20 to 25 kt in afternoon/evening. Winds will gradually ease Tue night into Wed, as gradient weakens.

Seas mostly running 5 to 6 ft into tonight, but will see bit more northwest swell arriving Mon. As such, seas 6 to 8 ft on the outer waters across the northern inner waters, a bit less as move southward along the west central Oregon coast. However, with the gusty northerly winds, would expect locally higher choppy seas on the waters at times, primarily afternoons/evenings. /Rockey

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for MON afternoon through late MON night on all waters from Cape Shoalwater to Cape Falcon.

Small Craft Advisory for SUN through TUE night on all coastal waters from Cape Falcon to Florence.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Wind History for Astoria, OR

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Airport Reports

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Link to 5 minute data for KKLS

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Wind History from KLS (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Knappa, Knappa Slough, Columbia River, Oregon

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