Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Watersmeet, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Tonight-Wednesday: Showers Tonight

Despite the influence of Canadian high pressure across the Upper Great Lakes region, radar mosaics showed returns extending from Minnesota/Iowa into western/central Wisconsin in association with mid-level warm advection/frontogenesis. 12Z GRB/MPX soundings showed substantial dry air below 700 mb with more moisture present in the mid-levels at MPX. Despite the stubborn dry air in place, some light rain has been reported within the higher returns nosing eastward from central Wisconsin this afternoon. The higher chances for more widespread showers (60-90% chance) come late today/tonight when mid-level frontogenesis is strongest. However, rain amounts will generally be modest with only low (20-40%) chances of exceeding 1/4 inch, mainly across central Wisconsin per the HRRR. Much of the day on Wednesday looks dry and seasonable as the shortwave trough pushes east and high pressure is the dominant influence.

Thursday-Sunday: Warmer, unsettled at times

Broad mid-level ridging and return southerly flow will start to set up on Thursday ahead of a deep trough and associated surface low that will lift northeast from the Rockies into the northern plains late this week, eventually dragging a cold front through over the weekend.

Warm advection will increase ahead of a warm front Thursday into Thursday night with medium (40-60%) chances for showers. Although any instability looks quite weak, an isolated thunderstorm (<20% chance) could not be ruled out, especially Thursday night as a strong low-level jet develops, with the NAEFS showing precipitable water values exceeding the 99th percentile of seasonal climo.

Ahead of the front on Friday, unseasonably mild high temperatures are likely, with NBM interquartile ranges (25-75th percentiles)
generally from the mid 60s to mid 70s. The front should slide through Friday night into Saturday morning with additional showers. Instability again should be quite modest, but a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. Although details of its evolution vary somewhat, occasional showers may linger through the weekend (20-40% chance) beneath the upper level trough.
Highs on Saturday will depend somewhat on frontal timing, but Sunday will trend cooler/seasonable.

Monday-Tuesday: Active pattern continues

The active weather pattern looks to persist into early next week with another Pacific trough set to eject east from the Rockies.
Global ensembles depict large spread with the timing and amplification of the upstream trough and downstream ridging across the central US. Accordingly, spread in temps increases significantly by Tuesday with only lower end rain chances (20-30%) given these differences.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1116 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Showers will diminish from north to south overnight across the region. CIGs overnight into Wednesday could dip into MVFR with the highest chances (70-90%) across central Wisconsin with smaller chances across the Fox Valley (30-50%) and even lower farther north and east. There is a chance for IFR CIGs (10-30%); however, the chance is too low to put in the TAF sites. Skies will then become VFR through the day on Wednesday. Under the influence of surface high pressure, winds will generally remain near or under 10 kts, perhaps a bit gustier from the NE along Lake Michigan at times.

MARINE
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Winds will increase out of the southeast on Thursday as low pressure develops west across the plains. A cold front will move through Friday night into Saturday with winds becoming westerly in its wake. Small craft conditions (gusty winds and increasing waves) appear likely beginning late Thursday, continuing into the weekend.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.