Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ilwaco, WA

SHORT TERM
Now through Wednesday night...The short term forecast is highlighted by cool and wet conditions. Beginning Monday morning, a ~998 mb closed surfaced low will track over the south WA/north OR coastal waters towards the Long Beach Peninsula by the late afternoon. A large swath of steady stratiform rain ahead of the surface low will spread from west to east across western WA/OR around sunrise and linger through the day, resulting in a cool and wet day.
By sunset, steady stratiform rain will transition to off-and-on post-frontal rain showers. Beyond Monday, models and their ensembles remain in good agreement for broad upper level troughing over the region with west to northwest flow aloft Tuesday through Wednesday.
This will maintain a cool and showery weather pattern through mid-week with high temperatures mainly in the 60s, however NBM PoPs suggest showers should dissipate by Wednesday afternoon at the latest for most locations.

The vast majority of precipitation will fall between 5 AM PDT Monday and 5 AM PDT Wednesday. QPF amounts from the deterministic NBM during this 48-hour period range generally between 0.5-1.0" over inland valley, around 1" at the coast, and 1-2" in the Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades. Probabilities for over 0.5" of rain have increased to 85-95%, and probabilities for 1" of rain or more have increased to 25-50% over the Willamette Valley and Portland metro, and 75-95% along the coast, Coast Range, Willapa Hills, and Cascades.
-23

LONG TERM
Thursday through Saturday night...The long term forecast is highlighted by a prolonged stretch of dry conditions with a multi-day heat wave beginning next weekend. Before the heat kicks in, expect pleasant weather on Thursday with mostly sunny skies and high temperatures in the 70s, except 60s at the coast. From Friday onward into early next week, models and their ensembles show an upper level ridge amplifying over the far northeast Pacific, with some uncertainty regarding exactly how far east the ridge axis will move.
Despite the uncertainty with the location of the ridge axis, confidence is high temperatures will be heating up significantly June 13-15. This is when the LREF mean shows 500 mb heights near the climatological 97-98th percentile and the NBM shows a 65-85% chance for high temperatures above 90 degrees for inland valleys and less than a 10% chance at the coast. In fact, there is a 10-30% chance for highs at or above 100 degrees June 14-15 for inland valleys, suggesting a major heat wave is within the realm of possibilities. In addition, overnight lows in the mid or even upper 60s will offer minimal overnight relief. As such, probabilities for a Moderate HeatRisk or higher peak near 75-90% June 14-15, with a 20-50% chance for a Major HeatRisk or higher. Note the highest probabilities are over the greater Portland/Vancouver metro. Anyone who is sensitive to heat or those who have outdoor plans should pay attention to the forecast over the coming days and be prepared for potential extreme heat. Those planning on swimming in rivers or lakes to cool off should be mindful of cold water temperatures and swift currents, which can become life threatening. -23

AVIATION
Largely VFR flying conditions are expected through the period with high cloud coverage continuing to increase ahead of an approaching frontal system. West to northwest winds at 5-10 kt along the coast and north winds near 5 kt inland will ease below tonight. Cigs trend lower tonight before rain arrives from the west by 12-15z Mon, with southerly winds rising to 5-10 kt ahead of the frontal boundary. Chances for MVFR cigs will increase to 50-75% along the coast and 35-555% at inland terminals after 15-18z Mon.

KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR conditions expected throughout the period. High cloud coverage will increase from the west, followed by rain beginning by 13-15z Mon. North to northwest winds around 5 kt today will ease overnight, then rise out of the south near 5 kt Monday morning ahead of the frontal boundary. Chances for MVFR cigs increase to 25% by 18z Mon, and to 50% by 18z Mon. -36

MARINE
An active and progressive pattern continues with periods of rain and elevated wind through midweek. A first frontal system arrives tonight into Monday morning, bringing widespread rain and strengthening southerly winds. The strongest winds reach 20-25 kt with gusts as high as 30-32 kt through much of the day on Monday, with isolated gale-force gusts as high as 35 kt most likely between 1-6 PM PDT within 20 NM south of Cape Foulweather. Seas will build from 4-5 ft this afternoon to 7-9 ft at 8 seconds by Monday afternoon with a continued dominant westerly swell. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect beginning at 11 PM PDT this evening beyond 10 NM and at 5 AM PDT Monday within 10 NM, and continuing through at least Tuesday afternoon. While southerly winds will subside behind the frontal passage, west-northwesterly winds is its wake are also expected to gust near 20-25 kt while seas remain relatively steep, so Small Craft Advisories may need to be extended further.

West-northwest winds on Wednesday will steadily turn out of the north as high pressure builds offshore. Strengthening northerlies will see diurnal peaks in the afternoon each day Thursday through at least Saturday, periods which could necessitate additional Small Craft Advisories for gusts near 25 kt. Seas through this period look to remain near 5-7 ft with a west-northwest swell at 9-11 seconds. -36

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.

WA...None.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ251>253.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM PDT Tuesday for PZZ271>273.